2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Les-TA-Jon]

I've done similar analytical threads like this in the past - namely the great escape season and during the title win.

 

So I thought I'd so something for the run in and top 4 chances. I'll try and update after every Leicester game. 

 

I've looked at every top flight season that contained 20 teams and awarded 3 points for a win (the 88/89 to 90/91 seasons and the 95/96 season to present). 

 

The averages points for finishing 7th to 3rd are: 57, 61, 64, 68, 73 respectively. This explains the figures at the top of each chart. The charts are the same data, but effectively expressed in 2 different ways - points required and 'permissible droppable points' - I like to look at both, because it shows how much room for maneuver each team has. 

 

We can see that 65-68 points is almost certainly the maximum points required to finish 4th. 

 

 

(Columns explained: Points, current maximum points, dropped points, played, games left, points available, remaining potential maximum points)

 

 

And here's the run in of every team (Spurs still have an unscheduled fixture vs Soton):

 

 

Headlines: 

 

• We need 15 points out of 30 to finish on 68. Or 1.5 points per game. We're currently on 1.9
• Chelsea, Everton and West Ham are the main threat to our top 4 place. They all need 'only' maintain their current form to finish on 68 points. Everton and West Ham don't have any other games or distractions. 
• Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal would have to put together an almighty run to get in there. Requiring 2.5, 2.1, 2.3 and 2.7 points per game in order to get there. They can only afford to drop 5, 10, 8 and 3 points respectively and finish on 68 points. 

 

Edited 8 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Les-TA-Jon]

@Ric Flair - this might make you feel better

Edited 8 March 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Ric Flair]

10 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

@Ric Flair - this might make you feel better

That's some sterling work you've done there Jon!!

[moore_94]

Everton's run in is a lot harder than I thought it was, definitely some games I can see then slipping up in, West Ham definitely have some favourable games in May.

 

Hopefully that game on 8th May ends a draw to take 2 more potential points from both teams

Hopefully neither of them manage to pick up any big wins/we suffer any big losses because our better goal difference at the moment could be massive for us if it gets tight at the end

[StriderHiryu]

Footage of @Les-TA-Jon working on this post:

 

 

 

 

Sensational work sir!

[jim5000]

Our last 3 games scare me. We have to have it sewn up before we play Utd, Chelsea, and Spurs.

[jeffschlupp]

It's virtually the same position as last season. That run of five games after Man City, we really need about 10 points.

 

We have just got to get our injured players back before then. The last three don't bother me like they did last season because we've matured enough to win the big games this year.

 

The other difference is that we'll need to rotate less because we are only playing once a week - the last 9 games are over 49 days rather than the 37 after the restart last season. That should avoid the need for playing sides like we did against Brighton at home last season.

 

I'm not going to get myself worked up about the run-in like I did last season or even in 2015-16. It's going to be more interesting to see whether we/Rodgers have learned anything or not.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Going away to WHU is going to be massive, if we can even get a point there it might **** them up, if we can somehow win, then we're in dreamland.

 

I'm not that worried about Spurs atm, with Europa League distractions they will surely lose a couple of games? Can't see them taking more than 25 points from their remaining 33, if they do then fair play they probably deserve top 4.

 

Main thing for me is concentrating on us, we need to get at least 15 or 16 points to give us a good chance. If someone beats 68 or 69 points then they will deserve it.

[ftfagos]

Great to see this thread back. Been looking for the road to a first or fourth place finish for ages. It provided a lot of comfort during the run in. Any idea why it isn't in the Champions Archive? 

[Les-TA-Jon]

Just now, ftfagos said:

Great to see this thread back. Been looking for the road to a first or fourth place finish for ages. It provided a lot of comfort during the run in. Any idea why it isn't in the Champions Archive? 

No idea - but my analysis thread for the title win is a great little time capsule!

[SixtiesFox]

Reasons to be optimistic about the run in: Big Dan's unexpected (in so many ways) winner against Brighton gives us huge momentum, Sheff U is our only league game until the free hit against Man City at the beginning of April (time to heal and recharge), 4 winnable games then follow (key players should be returning) plus a crucial game against West Ham (which is away from home!). As for the final 3 games, although tough on paper, 2 of them are away from home and by then Man U might have little to play for and be resting players in anticipation of Europa League glory and Spurs could well be out of contention (remember their last away day against Newcastle a couple of years back?). Finally, we are the only team that hasn't been out of the top 4 all season and unlike West Ham and Everton we have the experience of last year to draw on. Maintain the level of consistency we've achieved so far and we'll  increase the pressure on the chasers by leaving them little margin for error. If we stay focused on doing what we have to do by picking up a further 17 points (for a total of 70) out of a possible 30 then 2 of the chasers will have to put together a Man U type run from last year to deny us.

[Ricey]

Everton don't concern me currently, mainly because whenever I've seen them recently they've looked pretty average.

 

West Ham make no sense, so I can't judge them.

 

Liverpool and Spurs need a good points return, but with the players they have we know they are capable of that. European distractions may be key here.

 

Man Utd will carry on plodding along looking fairly average but then somehow winning games. I think if we finish about them we will surely be in the top 4.

 

Chelsea are the ones that I can see doing what Man Utd did after the restart last season and going on a really strong run over the next few weeks.

[rachhere]

Thanks for this. I am now feeling a lot more relaxed about qualifying for Europe again! Champions League is obviously the ultimate goal and this still looks very achievable, but then West Ham, Chelsea and Everton fans are likely thinking the same. Whatever happens, considering at the start of the season a lot of people were saying they would be happy with just a top half finish (due to the fact we had Europa to balance) and everything that has happened since with our injury woes, we have done fantastically. 

[walkerleeds]

Villa could have a big say in our top 4 chances.

[Les-TA-Jon]

7 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Everton don't concern me currently, mainly because whenever I've seen them recently they've looked pretty average.

 

West Ham make no sense, so I can't judge them.

 

Liverpool and Spurs need a good points return, but with the players they have we know they are capable of that. European distractions may be key here.

 

Man Utd will carry on plodding along looking fairly average but then somehow winning games. I think if we finish about them we will surely be in the top 4.

 

Chelsea are the ones that I can see doing what Man Utd did after the restart last season and going on a really strong run over the next few weeks.

Thing is, both West Ham and Everton 'only' have to maintain their current form to get 68 points. Whereas Liverpool and Spurs have to have a huge turnaround - 25 out of 30 and 23 out of 33

[Paninistickers]

37 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

Our last 3 games scare me. We have to have it sewn up before we play Utd, Chelsea, and Spurs.

Why? 

 

Difficult games yes. But on the flipside, every team in the division wants to swerve us if we have even 9 of our best xi playing

 

 

[Paninistickers]

3 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Thing is, both West Ham and Everton 'only' have to maintain their current form to get 68 points. Whereas Liverpool and Spurs have to have a huge turnaround - 25 out of 30 and 23 out of 33

But everton and west ham are on an absolute Crest atm. They'll never sustain that.

 

Both will hit a bump

[Woof]

Interestingly, fivethirtyeight's current statistical forecast is for us to finish 4th on 68 points, with Chelsea finishing 3rd on the same number of points but a better goal difference.  5th is a tie on 63 points for West Ham, Tottenham and Liverpool with Everton next on 61.

I'm not confident yet though!

[Ross 'LCFC' Turner]

Our home form has to improve! 

 

Win the following and its all but done;

 

Sheff United

West Brom

Crystal Palace 

Newcastle

 

 

[Raw Dykes]

Thanks, @Les-TA-Jon. I love this stuff. I hope you can update this each week. I, and I'm sure many others, will look forward to reading this thread after each round of games.

 

5 minutes ago, jeffschlupp said:

It's virtually the same position as last season. That run of five games after Man City, we really need about 10 points.

 

We have just got to get our injured players back before then. The last three don't bother me like they did last season because we've matured enough to win the big games this year.

 

The other difference is that we'll need to rotate less because we are only playing once a week - the last 9 games are over 49 days rather than the 37 after the restart last season. That should avoid the need for playing sides like we did against Brighton at home last season.

 

I'm not going to get myself worked up about the run-in like I did last season or even in 2015-16. It's going to be more interesting to see whether we/Rodgers have learned anything or not.

Re: injured players. I think everyone currently injured other than Barnes and JJ should be back after the international break. Barnes could be back a couple of weeks after that. I think Evans and Perez could be back for Sheff Utd and Praet should be back in training this week. Nobody seems to know how long Maddison will be out, but it doesn't seem too serious. I guess it's a matter of weeks for him.

 

I think the easing up of the schedule will help massively. Injured players miss half as many games now, and the players we've had to over-rely on can be properly rested. There's now a chance we can have more of a settled, fully-fit first XI who learn more about each other's game and form partnerships, etc.

 

The way I'm looking at the rest of the season is that we need 5 more wins. There are 5 games left that stick out like a sore **** in the fixture list. Sheff Utd, WBA, Palace, Soton, Newcastle. If we can get those won, then I think it's more or less job done. If we drop points in any of those, then it simply means we have to get those points back from the tougher games. Namely Man City, West Ham, Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs. We have done fantastically well against the Sky 6 so far this season. Better than anyone else has, I believe. Getting results in those matches against rivals for top 4 will go further, of course, so while I'm currently considering those a bonus, they are bloody big bonuses. I would hope we can manage one or two decent result in these.

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Raw Dykes said:

Thanks, @Les-TA-Jon. I love this stuff. I hope you can update this each week. I, and I'm sure many others, will look forward to reading this thread after each round of games.

 

Re: injured players. I think everyone currently injured other than Barnes and JJ should be back after the international break. Barnes could be back a couple of weeks after that. I think Evans and Perez could be back for Sheff Utd and Praet should be back in training this week. Nobody seems to know how long Maddison will be out, but it doesn't seem too serious. I guess it's a matter of weeks for him.

 

I think the easing up of the schedule will help massively. Injured players miss half as many games now, and the players we've had to over-rely on can be properly rested. There's now a chance we can have more of a settled, fully-fit first XI who learn more about each other's game and form partnerships, etc.

 

The way I'm looking at the rest of the season is that we need 5 more wins. There are 5 games left that stick out like a sore **** in the fixture list. Sheff Utd, WBA, Palace, Soton, Newcastle. If we can get those won, then I think it's more or less job done. If we drop points in any of those, then it simply means we have to get those points back from the tougher games. Namely Man City, West Ham, Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs. We have done fantastically well against the Sky 6 so far this season. Better than anyone else has, I believe. Getting results in those matches against rivals for top 4 will go further, of course, so while I'm currently considering those a bonus, they are bloody big bonuses. I would hope we can manage one or two decent result in these.

We've beaten all of them bar Man U. If we (somehow) beat Man U at Old Trafford, then we will have beaten all 6 in the same season. Surely no team has ever done that before? And definitely not in the PL era. 

[Ric Flair]

10 minutes ago, walkerleeds said:

Villa could have a big say in our top 4 chances.

Yeah, it's nice to have beaten them recently and that they also have probably left themselves a little too much to do to get top 4 themselves bit top 6 is more than achievable and I can see them being a huge nuisance to those around us, likewise Leeds.

[brucey]

This worries me more  Margin for error is much narrower than last season, fingers crossed we don't pick up any new injuries to crucial players or we're a bit stuffed

[ftfagos]

Just had a re-read of The road to a 1st or 4th place finish. Think my wife must have started peeling onions towards the end.

[Cincinnati Fox]

1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I've done similar analytical threads like this in the past - namely the great escape season and during the title win.

 

So I thought I'd so something for the run in and top 4 chances. I'll try and update after every Leicester game. 

 

I've looked at every top flight season that contained 20 teams and awarded 3 points for a win (the 88/89 to 90/91 seasons and the 95/96 season to present). 

 

The averages points for finishing 7th to 3rd are: 57, 61, 64, 68, 73 respectively. This explains the figures at the top of each chart. The charts are the same data, but effectively expressed in 2 different ways - points required and 'permissible droppable points' - I like to look at both, because it shows how much room for maneuver each team has. 

 

We can see that 65-68 points is almost certainly the maximum points required to finish 4th. 

 

 

(Columns explained: Points, current maximum points, dropped points, played, games left, points available, remaining potential maximum points)

 

 

And here's the run in of every team (Spurs still have an unscheduled fixture vs Soton):

 

 

Headlines: 

 

• We need 15 points out of 30 to finish on 68. Or 1.5 points per game. We're currently on 1.9
• Chelsea, Everton and West Ham are the main threat to our top 4 place. They all need 'only' maintain their current form to finish on 68 points. Everton and West Ham don't have any other games or distractions. 
• Liverpool, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal would have to put together an almighty run to get in there. Requiring 2.5, 2.1, 2.3 and 2.7 points per game in order to get there. They can only afford to drop 5, 10, 8 and 3 points respectively and finish on 68 points. 

 

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