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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

I’m 99% certain that we won’t get maximum points against Crystal Palace, West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton 

Agreed, we'll drop points to at least one of them. I'd take 9 or 10 points now if offered.

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Gerard

Gerard

Posted
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2 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Spurs and Liverpool know their top 4 chances are pretty much nil now, so I reckon they'll just focus on the European competitions, we'll see them rest players for EPL games.

 

Absolute rubbish.

 

Betting markets make Tottenham about a 16% chance and Liverpool over an 18% chance of top four. There is still a quarter of a season to go, I hope BR and the players aren't as complacent as you about finishing top four.

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Jobyfox

Jobyfox

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

I agree, but then I wouldn't be surprised to see us get at least a win or two out of the tougher 5 matches.

Yeah, that was my point really. I think we’ll pick up some points elsewhere as games never completely go to plan and form.

 

The best games to play at this stage of the season are sometimes not the games against the bottom sides, but ones against teams that have already packed their flip-flops and are heading for the beach. 
 

There will be some ups and downs either way, but I’m more optimistic than I was a few games ago. When Barnes got injured I thought it was one too many, but we’ve managed to re-invent ourselves a bit with the players available.

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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
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Psychologically, Everton, West Ham, Spurs and Chelsea all look at the table now and would settle for 4th.

 

Still a way to go, but rather than praying for 4th, I'm hoping for 2nd.

 

Premier League runners-up.  That would be a great achievement.

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KrefelderFox666

KrefelderFox666

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

I'm 99% we will get more points then most fans would expect against Man City, West Ham, Chelsea, Spurs, Man U. 

1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. 5 points.

 

The other 4 games will be a return of 7-9 points. Will win 2 (or 3), draw 1 (or draw none) and lose 1. Let's say we get 7 points (more realistic).

 

We would finish on 68 points which should be enough. That's my guess but who knows in football.

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HighPeakFox

HighPeakFox

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It gets me down when people prove they don't read properly, or at all. So I'm going to waste my time and repeat for the gazillionth time that 4th place only fails to land a CL place if BOTH European cups are won by teams outside the top 4.

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
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6 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

It gets me down when people prove they don't read properly, or at all. So I'm going to waste my time and repeat for the gazillionth time that 4th place only fails to land a CL place if BOTH European cups are won by teams outside the top 4.

Exactly.

 

Chelsea/Liverpool champions league win AND an Arsenal/Spurs europa league win. Thats quite unlikely and not even considering that Chelsea might finish in the top 4 anyway.

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cruzFOX

cruzFOX

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At this very penultimate moment in time I hope our team is more galvanized then ever. We are not privy to the goings on behind the scenes so all we have is how the players react during performances and post match interviews.

 

im gonna go glass half full here and say we will fight our way to the end now and clinch 2nd or 3rd spot. We may even go for in the FA cup. The end is in sight and last seasons disappointment still fresh I’m our collective minds. Even Perez who we all have lambasted for being so lightweight was putting in robust tackles and standing his ground yesterday. Nachos has been getting and better his confidence booming now. Vardy has almost recovered all his powers bar the finishing but it will come sure enough. We aim as high as our dreams allow us and see where we finish.

COYF :chant:

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OrielCaziado

OrielCaziado

Posted
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2 hours ago, Jobyfox said:

I’m 99% certain that we won’t get maximum points against Crystal Palace, West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton 

The fourfold accumulator on us winning them games at the prices we will go off at will probably be less than 10/1 yet you think the chances of us winning them all is only 1%. We are likely to be no bigger than 4/5, 4/7, 4/6 and 11/10 in the, games 

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Jobyfox

Jobyfox

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18 minutes ago, OrielCaziado said:

The fourfold accumulator on us winning them games at the prices we will go off at will probably be less than 10/1 yet you think the chances of us winning them all is only 1%. We are likely to be no bigger than 4/5, 4/7, 4/6 and 11/10 in the, games 

Yes 

 

Mine is based on a gut feeling after being a Leicester City fan for more than 35 years 😀

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HereBeFoxes

HereBeFoxes

Posted
Posted

I have made my own Premier League Result Simulator model to join in the fun; it uses recent form (in the results shown here last 6 matches) and uses that to estimate probabilities for home win, draw, away win for all the remaining matches.  It then runs 10000 iterations of the rest of the season, allocating the points per match according to those probabilities to assign the final points tally, breaking ties by GD assuming all upcoming games are won 1-0 or drawn 0-0.  It is of course, bollocks, but here are the results:

 

Man City come top in 99.7% of scenarios, and second in the other 0.3%.

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

Man Utd top 0.2%, second 48%, third, 36.6%, fourth 13.6%, fifth 1.5%, and 6th 0.2%

Chelsea second 7.6%, third 20.1%, fourth 52.7%, fifth 13.2%, lower (6th to 9th) 6.4%.

West Ham second 0.1%, third 0.7%, fourth 6.1%, fifth 26.6%, lower (6th to 13th) 66.5%

Everton second 0.2%, third 0.9%, fourth 7.4%, fifth 21.4%, lower (6th to 13th) 70.2%

Spurs second 0.1%, third 0.6%, fourth 6%,fifth 24%, lower (6th to 14th) 69.4%

 

So there you have it.  Definitive proof that we're finishing in the top 4 with 85% probability.  No need to finish the season I'd say.

 

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murphy

murphy

Posted
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13 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Can something be 'very penultimate'? I don't think it can somehow. 

I think that 'very' refers to the 'moment' ie 'this very moment in time'.  Penultimate qualifies the moment, so you could have the very first moment in time.

 

Disclaimer - There's a good chance I don't know what I'm talking about.  

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HighPeakFox

HighPeakFox

Posted
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1 minute ago, murphy said:

I think that 'very' refers to the 'moment' ie 'this very moment in time'.  Penultimate qualifies the moment, so you could have the very first moment in time.

 

Disclaimer - There's a good chance I don't know what I'm talking about.  

But does not penultimate mean 'the last but one'?

 

(Just checked - it does)

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OrielCaziado

OrielCaziado

Posted
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The Man City game although to some degree a free hit, as expectations are minimal, could still be important in terms of our performance and the score line. Wouldn’t want us to take a confidence denting good hiding. That said, I do think the team are loads stronger mentally this season.  Coming from behind to get results when we certainly wouldn’t have done last season gives me far more optimism.

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