The Championship Thread 2023/2024

[LCFCJohn]

2 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I need to properly look into this. We hardly ever do comebacks. I genuinely cannot remember the last time we got anything out of a game we were two down in.

Surely there must be more recent examples of this but genuinely the last times off the top of my head I can remember were that run of games early in the title winning season, September/October 2015 time, when we came from 2-0 down to beat Villa 3-2 but then I think it was twice away at Stoke and Southampton where we were 2-0 down and rescued 2-2 draws. We were hailed at comeback kings at the time! 

[StanSP]

3 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I need to properly look into this. We hardly ever do comebacks. I genuinely cannot remember the last time we got anything out of a game we were two down in.

 

1 hour ago, LCFCJohn said:

Surely there must be more recent examples of this but genuinely the last times off the top of my head I can remember were that run of games early in the title winning season, September/October 2015 time, when we came from 2-0 down to beat Villa 3-2 but then I think it was twice away at Stoke and Southampton where we were 2-0 down and rescued 2-2 draws. We were hailed at comeback kings at the time! 

I had a look on wiki and it seems like it was Spartak Moscow in the 21/22 season. 2 down, won 4-2.

 

What I would say though, for this season especially, how many opportunities have there been to even come back from 2 down? If we've scored or scored enough to not even need to come from 2 down, that could be seen as a good thing? 

 

 

Edited 4 March 2024 by StanSP

[Pub breath]

8 hours ago, Lambert09 said:

Luck is a genuine aspect in football. It really bothers me to hear people say you make your own luck, because it’s complete bull.

 

The idea that "you make your own luck" has always bugged me somewhat.  It seems to suggest that if you do everything right and to a good standard, you will be the recipient of exactly the same proportion of luck as someone else repeating similar actions.

That actually contradicts the entire essence of luck.  There are people who have won the lottery multiples of times.  There are people who have played more tickets than them, who have never won once.  That disproportionality of fortune pervades every possible aspect of life.

Ergo, there are football teams who have had luck on their side during a season and teams who luck seems to have largely deserted.  Ipswich seem to have had the former, based on everything I've seen of their performances.  They've had an amazing season and played way above a level anyone expected but definitely have the Gods of great fortune to thank for a not insignificant proportion of their points haul.

[Number 6]

9 hours ago, Lambert09 said:

Luck is a genuine aspect in football. It really bothers me to hear people say you make your own luck, because it’s complete bull.

 

What isn’t ‘luck’ is us consistently missing easy chances. So i don’t take that as ‘luck’ that’s just our players having a lack of composure. In certain games we let ourselves down but in some, luck was largely at play. Both leeds and coventry were bad luck moments, because overall bad decisions by a ref cost us and on other days that wouldn’t have happened. 

 

QPR we were blunt and they took their chances, nothing to do with luck. That’s just football. 

 

But there’s no way, you can look at ipswich and not agree luck has gone their way. They have scored the most outrageously lucky goals i’ve ever seen, they’ve had very luckyref calls go their way ( the non plymouth pen is up there with the worst i’ve seen from officials) They’ve avoided goals by chances hitting the post where inches would have knocked off points on an incredible amount of occasions. If ipswich had worse luck, they’d probably be 12 points behind.  But, it is, what it is and that’s football. 

 

As for us, I can only remember one post saves the day moment, which was actually justin tonking his own. Overall we’ve been way more dominant in games than ipswich and i think that will show by the end of the season. Certainly still more worried by southampton than them 
 

 

I don't think we've had that many bad decisions against us this season, but the timing of the ones we have had has also been horrible...affecting huge games against Ipswich and Leeds.

[Dollers]

9 hours ago, Lambert09 said:

Luck is a genuine aspect in football. It really bothers me to hear people say you make your own luck, because it’s complete bull.

 

What isn’t ‘luck’ is us consistently missing easy chances. So i don’t take that as ‘luck’ that’s just our players having a lack of composure. In certain games we let ourselves down but in some, luck was largely at play. Both leeds and coventry were bad luck moments, because overall bad decisions by a ref cost us and on other days that wouldn’t have happened. 

 

QPR we were blunt and they took their chances, nothing to do with luck. That’s just football. 

 

But there’s no way, you can look at ipswich and not agree luck has gone their way. They have scored the most outrageously lucky goals i’ve ever seen, they’ve had very luckyref calls go their way ( the non plymouth pen is up there with the worst i’ve seen from officials) They’ve avoided goals by chances hitting the post where inches would have knocked off points on an incredible amount of occasions. If ipswich had worse luck, they’d probably be 12 points behind.  But, it is, what it is and that’s football. 

 

As for us, I can only remember one post saves the day moment, which was actually justin tonking his own. Overall we’ve been way more dominant in games than ipswich and i think that will show by the end of the season. Certainly still more worried by southampton than them 
 

 

Crikey, just the same old nonsense comes up on here time and time again.

If you slow down the 'Plymouth pen' you'll see contact wasn't in the box. Even Plymouth supporters have admitted this!

Yes we've avoided goals by the ball hitting the post - but this isn't luck it's bad shooting (or the lack of composure you mention!)... and every team has this... and we've hit the woodwork ourselves. We hit both posts and crossbar v Maidstone in the cup and lost!

We've also had plenty of bad luck that you've failed to see. Just one example - we had two non-goals given against us at Preston in a game we lost 3-2... that the officials have since apologised for.

"Overall we’ve been way more dominant in games than ipswich" - so you've watched the entire performance of every Ipswich game as well as Leicester's then?! I bet you haven't even read all the stats of every Ipswich game, let alone watched!

 

If anyone's lucky with officials it's Leicester. You've been awarded more penalties than any other team in the league... and FIVE TIMES more than Ipswich.

 

[Dollers]

31 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

The idea that "you make your own luck" has always bugged me somewhat.  It seems to suggest that if you do everything right and to a good standard, you will be the recipient of exactly the same proportion of luck as someone else repeating similar actions.

That actually contradicts the entire essence of luck.  There are people who have won the lottery multiples of times.  There are people who have played more tickets than them, who have never won once.  That disproportionality of fortune pervades every possible aspect of life.

Ergo, there are football teams who have had luck on their side during a season and teams who luck seems to have largely deserted.  Ipswich seem to have had the former, based on everything I've seen of their performances.  They've had an amazing season and played way above a level anyone expected but definitely have the Gods of great fortune to thank for a not insignificant proportion of their points haul.

The phrase "you make your own luck" was coined in sport because it's true; the harder you work at certain aspects the more will go right (in a seemingly lucky way).

Like deflections that go in. These aren't simply down to luck. They're from shooting a lot. You either forget, or don't notice, or don't-watch-all-our-games-so-won't-notice-because-they-won't-all-be-on-the-highlights, the shots that go wayward and do nothing.

Again, having "the Gods of great fortune to thank for a not insignificant proportion of their points haul" is utter nonsense based on an erroneous perception. You haven't seen all the points we've lost through bad luck.

 

I've been wondering where this 'lucky Ipswich' tag comes from (it largely seems to be from Leicester supporters) and I can only think it's that you can't understand how a team can come up from League 1 and immediately do so well, so in your heads you have to invent a reason. You see a couple of lucky instances, think 'ah, they're a lucky team, that's the answer' and then extrapolate it across the whole season. It becomes confirmation bias - every bit of good luck you blow up out of all proportion... every bit of bad luck is excused or not noticed. And here we are.

 

It's still not true though. We aren't any luckier than anyone else. It's just (some of your) perception.

[Pub breath]

5 minutes ago, Dollers said:

The phrase "you make your own luck" was coined in sport because it's true; the harder you work at certain aspects the more will go right (in a seemingly lucky way).

Like deflections that go in. These aren't simply down to luck. They're from shooting a lot. You either forget, or don't notice, or don't-watch-all-our-games-so-won't-notice-because-they-won't-all-be-on-the-highlights, the shots that go wayward and do nothing.

Again, having "the Gods of great fortune to thank for a not insignificant proportion of their points haul" is utter nonsense based on an erroneous perception. You haven't seen all the points we've lost through bad luck.

 

I've been wondering where this 'lucky Ipswich' tag comes from (it largely seems to be from Leicester supporters) and I can only think it's that you can't understand how a team can come up from League 1 and immediately do so well, so in your heads you have to invent a reason. You see a couple of lucky instances, think 'ah, they're a lucky team, that's the answer' and then extrapolate it across the whole season. It becomes confirmation bias - every bit of good luck you blow up out of all proportion... every bit of bad luck is excused or not noticed. And here we are.

 

It's still not true though. We aren't any luckier than anyone else. It's just (some of your) perception.

  I'm not a Leicester fan.  I'm a Leeds fan.  I'm obviously watching a great deal of you, Leicester and Southampton this season.  I haven't levied this accusation at either of the other teams.  I'm just afraid to say that the games i've seen with Ipswich have usually involved a consistently large amount of good fortune.

In the same way as Leeds were fortunate to beat Leicester (one of the very few times I can say that has been the case) due to two deflected efforts, Ipswich winning games in similar circumstances definitely have owed as much to fortune as they have your good play.  I realise why that would sit uncomfortably with you but bear in mind I wasn't being provocative.  I wasn't even aware there was a resident Ipswich fan on here.

You did kind of miss my point about "making your own luck".  I acknowledged that you have to make the right efforts to enjoy the right fortune.  In the lottery example, you have to buy a ticket to win.  It's just that there are some people who have multiple jackpot wins under their belts and others, none.  They both positioned themselves equally but luck was not evenly distributed.  It never is, chance simply doesn't work like that.

Do you not accept the possibility (if not the truth), that fortune could have favoured Ipswich disproportionately so far this season?

[Chrysalis]

Fortune favours the brave, we cant moan about deflections not going in if we not making those type of shots ourselves.  Not to mention in the Ipswich game we allowed them to peg us back which gave them those chances, I just feel like blaming luck is a cop out.

[Lad1966]

12 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Fortune favours the brave, we cant moan about deflections not going in if we not making those type of shots ourselves.  Not to mention in the Ipswich game we allowed them to peg us back which gave them those chances, I just feel like blaming luck is a cop out.

It’s a difficult one, a lot of these are when Ipswich are chasing the game, looking for an equaliser or draw, which is something we don’t do, and to fair until recently we’ve not been in that position too often. I also feel with Ipswich, that there is less expectations from their own fans, which allows them to play more freely in these situations, which also comes from the manager 

[Les-TA-Jon]

I'm less bothered about luck and more bothered about the clear penalty we should have had in the Ipswich Away game, and the Daka goal in Leeds Away, both for 2-0 at a crucial point mid way through the 2nd half. 

 

The table could/should look like this:

 

Leicester 83

Ipswich 74

Leeds 70

Southampton 70

Edited 4 March 2024 by Les-TA-Jon

[Mark_w]

7 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I'm less bothered about luck and more bothered about the clear penalty we should have had in the Ipswich Away game, and the Daka goal in Leeds Away, both for 2-0 at a crucial point mid way through the 2nd half. 

 

The table could/should look like this:

 

Leicester 83

Ipswich 74

Leeds 70

Southampton 70

It doesn’t though, they’re two decisions in 35 90 minute football matches. We have the biggest wage budget and most expensively assembled squad in the Championship, if we fail to go up it’s not because of two refereeing mistakes.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Here's a little PPG comparison for you. Season long PPG vs 5-game form PPG vs Averaged PPG between those 2 extremes. And then 'sense checked' with a dropped points requirement to get to that total (which for example shows how unreliable the 5-game form is - for example, I don't see us and Southampton dropping 20 out of 33 points here on out) 

 

 

What it does show is that unless some of the other teams have a significant drop off, we really need to win 7-8 of the remaining 11 to give ourselves the best chance. But either way the Automatic Promotion race has been blown wide open. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Mark_w said:

It doesn’t though, they’re two decisions in 35 90 minute football matches. We have the biggest wage budget and most expensively assembled squad in the Championship, if we fail to go up it’s not because of two refereeing mistakes.

Oh for sure. Every team will have those 'woulda/coulda/shoulda stories' but I suppose the difference is, Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton don't have them for their games against their direct rivals like we do. 

[Happy Fox]

I really hope we don’t get into the territory of needing and relying on other teams results for the top 2 but it’s getting to that stage due to our poor recent form results wise.

 

 

[Pub breath]

13 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I'm less bothered about luck and more bothered about the clear penalty we should have had in the Ipswich Away game, and the Daka goal in Leeds Away, both for 2-0 at a crucial point mid way through the 2nd half. 

 

The table could/should look like this:

 

Leicester 83

Ipswich 74

Leeds 70

Southampton 70

Well it would if you fail to also factor in all the  "what if" moments for the other clubs. 

Another referee would have sent 2 or 3 Huddersfield players off on Saturday and Leeds would have won that game.  2 more points on our total and i've only gone back one game

[Les-TA-Jon]

11 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

Well it would if you fail to also factor in all the  "what if" moments for the other clubs. 

Another referee would have sent 2 or 3 Huddersfield players off on Saturday and Leeds would have won that game.  2 more points on our total and i've only gone back one game

Sure. But even in a vacuum, Leicester should have a +3 swing vs Ipswich and a +6 swing vs Leeds. 

[Chrysalis]

I take it you like the use of combined/averaged PPG then @Les-TA-Jon 

[Aus Fox]

1 hour ago, Dollers said:

Crikey, just the same old nonsense comes up on here time and time again.

If you slow down the 'Plymouth pen' you'll see contact wasn't in the box. Even Plymouth supporters have admitted this!

Yes we've avoided goals by the ball hitting the post - but this isn't luck it's bad shooting (or the lack of composure you mention!)... and every team has this... and we've hit the woodwork ourselves. We hit both posts and crossbar v Maidstone in the cup and lost!

We've also had plenty of bad luck that you've failed to see. Just one example - we had two non-goals given against us at Preston in a game we lost 3-2... that the officials have since apologised for.

"Overall we’ve been way more dominant in games than ipswich" - so you've watched the entire performance of every Ipswich game as well as Leicester's then?! I bet you haven't even read all the stats of every Ipswich game, let alone watched!

 

If anyone's lucky with officials it's Leicester. You've been awarded more penalties than any other team in the league... and FIVE TIMES more than Ipswich.

 

Lucky with officials??? You’re having a laugh! In our games against 2 of our promotion rivals, at 1-0 up, we’ve had a stone wall penalty and red card not given and a perfectly good goal ruled out!

When you have wingers that attack with pace you find you get more penalties, that’s a simple fact. 
 

Also the fact we have a 15 goal better goal difference would suggest we have been more dominant. I’ve watched a fair bit of Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton this year, and all three, as well as ourselves have had games when we have been fortunate to win, and also games when we have ripped apart the opposition. At the end of the day, with 11 games remaining, we’re slightly ahead of you, a little further ahead of Leeds and have a pretty healthy cushion against Southampton.

 

All four will have good and bad games between now and the end of the season. I still think with Ndidi set to come back soon, when we have Winks, KDH and Ndidi in the team no one in this league gets near us.

 

[LCFCJohn]

1 minute ago, Aus Fox said:

Lucky with officials??? You’re having a laugh! In our games against 2 of our promotion rivals, at 1-0 up, we’ve had a stone wall penalty and red card not given and a perfectly good goal ruled out!

When you have wingers that attack with pace you find you get more penalties, that’s a simple fact. 
 

Also the fact we have a 15 goal better goal difference would suggest we have been more dominant. I’ve watched a fair bit of Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton this year, and all three, as well as ourselves have had games when we have been fortunate to win, and also games when we have ripped apart the opposition. At the end of the day, with 11 games remaining, we’re slightly ahead of you, a little further ahead of Leeds and have a pretty healthy cushion against Southampton.

 

All four will have good and bad games between now and the end of the season. I still think with Ndidi set to come back soon, when we have Winks, KDH and Ndidi in the team no one in this league gets near us.

 

It was the same 10 years ago when we won this league. We had a lot of pens and people were suggesting we had been fortunate/lucky. No…the Championship defences of that season had no way of dealing with particularly Vardy and Dyer. Penalties awarded is not a sign of luck with officials. Maybe if a lot are proven to be incorrect/soft maybe.

[Dollers]

1 hour ago, Pub breath said:

  I'm not a Leicester fan.  I'm a Leeds fan.  I'm obviously watching a great deal of you, Leicester and Southampton this season.  I haven't levied this accusation at either of the other teams.  I'm just afraid to say that the games i've seen with Ipswich have usually involved a consistently large amount of good fortune.

In the same way as Leeds were fortunate to beat Leicester (one of the very few times I can say that has been the case) due to two deflected efforts, Ipswich winning games in similar circumstances definitely have owed as much to fortune as they have your good play.  I realise why that would sit uncomfortably with you but bear in mind I wasn't being provocative.  I wasn't even aware there was a resident Ipswich fan on here.

You did kind of miss my point about "making your own luck".  I acknowledged that you have to make the right efforts to enjoy the right fortune.  In the lottery example, you have to buy a ticket to win.  It's just that there are some people who have multiple jackpot wins under their belts and others, none.  They both positioned themselves equally but luck was not evenly distributed.  It never is, chance simply doesn't work like that.

Do you not accept the possibility (if not the truth), that fortune could have favoured Ipswich disproportionately so far this season?

No, I don't think it's disproportionate. I've seen every minute of every Ipswich game, and whilst we have had some lucky bits we've had plenty of unlucky bits too. We, like most supporters in the league I assume, feel like we get sh!t refs every week, for example. We've had some high profile fortuitous goals compared to other seasons, but overall our wins definitely haven't "owed as much to fortune as they have (your) good play".

 

I think your multiple lottery wins example is not really the right analogy when it comes to sport. That really is flukiness! With sport, like I say, you do make your own luck by doing things right over and over. "The more I practice the luckier I get" is a well known phrase that's been attributed to several sportspeople.

 

Someone on the Ipswich forum (TWTD) has got to the crux of it: "Everyone seems baffled by how good we have been so are filling a void with bollox."

What's also interesting is that different teams' supporters are filling that void with different bollox. I haven't looked at any Leeds forum but from others;

Leicester fans think we're supernaturally lucky.
Sunderland reckon we've splashed-the-cash-like-Derby-did and are in financial trouble if we don't go up.
Plymouth reckon we're a bunch of hooligans with players who want to end opposition players' careers.

None of this is true.

Confirmation bias is an interesting topic, and it's especially weird/funny when you see 3 different versions on the go.

[Dollers]

11 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Lucky with officials??? You’re having a laugh! In our games against 2 of our promotion rivals, at 1-0 up, we’ve had a stone wall penalty and red card not given and a perfectly good goal ruled out!

When you have wingers that attack with pace you find you get more penalties, that’s a simple fact. 
 

Also the fact we have a 15 goal better goal difference would suggest we have been more dominant. I’ve watched a fair bit of Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton this year, and all three, as well as ourselves have had games when we have been fortunate to win, and also games when we have ripped apart the opposition. At the end of the day, with 11 games remaining, we’re slightly ahead of you, a little further ahead of Leeds and have a pretty healthy cushion against Southampton.

 

All four will have good and bad games between now and the end of the season. I still think with Ndidi set to come back soon, when we have Winks, KDH and Ndidi in the team no one in this league gets near us.

 

We have wingers/wingbacks who attack with pace, and super-subs on 70 mins who attack with pace. That's part of our strategy. Even if you are a bit more dominant, Leicester have been awarded FIVE TIMES more penalties than us. 11 in 28 games is an extraordinary amount.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Can @Dollers with a straight face, explain how this isn't a penalty and a red card then? 

 

 

Wrong side. Not shoulder to shoulder, but shoulder to back. No attempt to win the ball. You'd be screaming for it if it was the other way around. 

 

For clarity, I'm not really bothered about the 'luck across the whole season' debate for or against Leicester/Leeds/Ipswich/Southampton. 

 

But in a vacuum Leicester were robbed of wins in Ipswich Away and Leeds Away games due to this decision and the goal ruled out vs Leeds, both at crucial moments in the game to go 2-0 up

Edited 4 March 2024 by Les-TA-Jon

[Dollers]

11 minutes ago, LCFCJohn said:

It was the same 10 years ago when we won this league. We had a lot of pens and people were suggesting we had been fortunate/lucky. No…the Championship defences of that season had no way of dealing with particularly Vardy and Dyer. Penalties awarded is not a sign of luck with officials. Maybe if a lot are proven to be incorrect/soft maybe.

I don't mean your pens are lucky necessarily, it might be that we've been unlucky. The point is, it seems a bit odd that you'd get 5 times the pens the team next to you in the league (who also attack the box with pace) would.

[Bourbon Fox]

1 hour ago, Dollers said:

The phrase "you make your own luck" was coined in sport because it's true; the harder you work at certain aspects the more will go right (in a seemingly lucky way).

Like deflections that go in. These aren't simply down to luck. They're from shooting a lot. 

 

I agree with your interpretation of the phrase 'you make your own luck'

 

2 hours ago, Dollers said:

If anyone's lucky with officials it's Leicester. You've been awarded more penalties than any other team in the league... and FIVE TIMES more than Ipswich.

 

And I'm enjoying how it contradicts your previous post

[Dollers]

5 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Can @Dollers with a straight face, explain how this isn't a penalty and a red card then? 

 

 

Wrong side. Not shoulder to shoulder, but shoulder to back. No attempt to win the ball. You'd be screaming for it if it was the other way around. 

At normal speed it looks a coming together and a bit soft. From the slowed-down close-up, yes it looks a pen.

Not sure what your point is, I've not mentioned this incident anywhere.

And I could quite easily get a load of clips together (if I had the time and inclination) where we've been unlucky.

You've posted ONE incident.