The Championship Thread 2023/2024

[FoxOnWheels]

Really need back to back wins to get things back on track

[LCFCJohn]

2 minutes ago, Dollers said:

We have wingers/wingbacks who attack with pace, and super-subs on 70 mins who attack with pace. That's part of our strategy. Even if you are a bit more dominant, Leicester have been awarded FIVE TIMES more penalties than us. 11 in 28 games is an extraordinary amount.

I’m not getting into a debate about lucky vs not lucky here and stats do speak for themselves. But even spending more time attacking the opposition box isn’t a given of penalties. Not to speak the bloody obvious, but it’s whether your attackers are fouled in doing so. This whole penalty debate isn’t one I think is something that can be levelled at either club being lucky or unlucky purely by virtue of how many have they had. You can only really solve it by whether there have been individual decisions for or against your team.

 

For example, off the top of my head, the only one I can think of where it was a crap decision in our favour for a pen was in the home game to Swansea a few weeks back when Daka went down but it wasn’t a foul. The rest there hasn’t been any debate about unless I’m missing any. We definitely has a clear one not given at Portman Road at Christmas so even off the top of my head, we are net even there. 
 

I’m sure you will have your own observations about your own decisions. Maybe you have had numerous stone walkers not given. Maybe your attackers are actually just doing something productive in the box before they can get fouled. Maybe they are falling over their own feet and knocking it out of play for goal kicks! I don’t know but just pointing out attacking the opponents box doesn’t automatically mean you should have had a load more pens. 
 

But unless you can point to penalties (other than the one I have highlighted) that we have had but shouldn’t, you also can’t say that we have been lucky in that regard.

[LCFCJohn]

6 minutes ago, Dollers said:

I don't mean your pens are lucky necessarily, it might be that we've been unlucky. The point is, it seems a bit odd that you'd get 5 times the pens the team next to you in the league (who also attack the box with pace) would.

I have just replied to another post actually which covers this 👍. As I say in there, maybe you’ve been unlucky as we certainly haven’t been lucky in that regard. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, Dollers said:

At normal speed it looks a coming together and a bit soft. From the slowed-down close-up, yes it looks a pen.

Not sure what your point is, I've not mentioned this incident anywhere.

And I could quite easily get a load of clips together (if I had the time and inclination) where we've been unlucky.

You've posted ONE incident.

Yes, I posted the ONE incident I was specifically talking about. As I say, I'm not interested in the season long luck debate. I'm interested in the specific incidents (KDH pen not given 75mins for 2-0 away at Ipswich) and (Daka goal ruled out vs Leeds away for 2-0). 

 

You did a laugh reaction to my alternate table post so I presumed you didn't think we should have had those decisions go for us? I.e you don't think it's a pen. Hence my follow up comment. 

[AjcW]

I wonder if this Sheff Weds manager might be the next young success story off the German conveyor belt. 

 

Under the circumstances to carry on with his plan and get to a point where they've won 4 out of 5 is incredible. They've actually got a decent chance at survival now.

Seen a few videos on social of the amazing team spirit they've got at the mo.

Fair play to him, bat shit owner but he's got on with the job brilliantly.

 

Side note... it's great to see Chris Powell having an impact yet again as part of a coaching team.

[Dollers]

3 minutes ago, LCFCJohn said:

I’m not getting into a debate about lucky vs not lucky here and stats do speak for themselves. But even spending more time attacking the opposition box isn’t a given of penalties. Not to speak the bloody obvious, but it’s whether your attackers are fouled in doing so. This whole penalty debate isn’t one I think is something that can be levelled at either club being lucky or unlucky purely by virtue of how many have they had. You can only really solve it by whether there have been individual decisions for or against your team.

 

For example, off the top of my head, the only one I can think of where it was a crap decision in our favour for a pen was in the home game to Swansea a few weeks back when Daka went down but it wasn’t a foul. The rest there hasn’t been any debate about unless I’m missing any. We definitely has a clear one not given at Portman Road at Christmas so even off the top of my head, we are net even there. 
 

I’m sure you will have your own observations about your own decisions. Maybe you have had numerous stone walkers not given. Maybe your attackers are actually just doing something productive in the box before they can get fouled. Maybe they are falling over their own feet and knocking it out of play for goal kicks! I don’t know but just pointing out attacking the opponents box doesn’t automatically mean you should have had a load more pens. 
 

But unless you can point to penalties (other than the one I have highlighted) that we have had but shouldn’t, you also can’t say that we have been lucky in that regard.

I mean yeah, you could drill down into every decision you've had and every one we've had (or not had). Every shot, tackle, deflection... But the point is, should there be such a disparity, generally, in one of the metrics? Not just a few more pens - 5 times more! Seems unlikely for two attacking teams, first and second in the league.

Anyway, pens was just a stat I had to hand. I think it's fair to say we haven't been especially lucky on that one.  

[Dollers]

8 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Yes, I posted the ONE incident I was specifically talking about. As I say, I'm not interested in the season long luck debate. I'm interested in the specific incidents (KDH pen not given 75mins for 2-0 away at Ipswich) and (Daka goal ruled out vs Leeds away for 2-0). 

 

You did a laugh reaction to my alternate table post so I presumed you didn't think we should have had those decisions go for us? I.e you don't think it's a pen. Hence my follow up comment. 

No my laugh was because you've changed two incidents in your favour to make that table. Every other team has incidents go wrongly for and against them. You can't just pluck out two, make them favour you (also assume the pen was scored), and then update the table accordingly! Well you can but it would be utterly pointless.

[Pub breath]

58 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Sure. But even in a vacuum, Leicester should have a +3 swing vs Ipswich and a +6 swing vs Leeds. 

  Oh behave yourself lad!!

[Bert]

22 hours ago, Dollers said:

I'm not joking. Feel free to list the 4 lucky deflections we've had, I can't think of 4 (Morsy's against you only counts as one they were part of the same shot!)

Well I can name 2. They both came against us. Morsy at Portman Road. Sarmiento at King Power. The keeper saves it and it goes in off his arse. 

[Pub breath]

40 minutes ago, Dollers said:

No, I don't think it's disproportionate. I've seen every minute of every Ipswich game, and whilst we have had some lucky bits we've had plenty of unlucky bits too. We, like most supporters in the league I assume, feel like we get sh!t refs every week, for example. We've had some high profile fortuitous goals compared to other seasons, but overall our wins definitely haven't "owed as much to fortune as they have (your) good play".

 

I think your multiple lottery wins example is not really the right analogy when it comes to sport. That really is flukiness! With sport, like I say, you do make your own luck by doing things right over and over. "The more I practice the luckier I get" is a well known phrase that's been attributed to several sportspeople.

 

A defender blocks a shot.  Neither the shooter nor the defender has any control over where that ball heads.  Agreed?

Fictitious scenario:  Two teams, 10 blocked shots each.

Team 1 = 6 spin wide, 2 fly over the top and the last 2 plop perfectly into the keeper's hands

Team 2 = 2 spin wide, 8 spin into various parts of the net out of the keeper's reach

The rules of chance dictate that this is exactly what will happen over a large enough sample size.  It could happen in a sample size of 1.  Two teams who have "created their own luck" in equal measure, yet team 1 has had none and team 2, all of it.

A team that has no shots will indeed be less lucky than a team who has 10.  To assume that shooting more and the amount of fortune you receive are directly correlated, is a logical fallacy.  Chance does not work that way.

So whether or not you wish to accept it, it is entirely possible that Ipswich have had a larger than you'd expect amount of fortune this season. 

[FoxOnWheels]

With our form and fixtures I don’t see us getting the required points to stay above rivais

[Happy Fox]

23 minutes ago, AjcW said:

I wonder if this Sheff Weds manager might be the next young success story off the German conveyor belt. 

 

Under the circumstances to carry on with his plan and get to a point where they've won 4 out of 5 is incredible. They've actually got a decent chance at survival now.

Seen a few videos on social of the amazing team spirit they've got at the mo.

Fair play to him, bat shit owner but he's got on with the job brilliantly.

 

Side note... it's great to see Chris Powell having an impact yet again as part of a coaching team.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if he is on our radar, if Enzo leaves.

[Leicester_Loyal]

7 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I need to properly look into this. We hardly ever do comebacks. I genuinely cannot remember the last time we got anything out of a game we were two down in.

 

5 hours ago, LCFCJohn said:

Surely there must be more recent examples of this but genuinely the last times off the top of my head I can remember were that run of games early in the title winning season, September/October 2015 time, when we came from 2-0 down to beat Villa 3-2 but then I think it was twice away at Stoke and Southampton where we were 2-0 down and rescued 2-2 draws. We were hailed at comeback kings at the time! 

 

3 hours ago, StanSP said:

 

I had a look on wiki and it seems like it was Spartak Moscow in the 21/22 season. 2 down, won 4-2.

 

What I would say though, for this season especially, how many opportunities have there been to even come back from 2 down? If we've scored or scored enough to not even need to come from 2 down, that could be seen as a good thing? 

 

 

Last season there was loads of examples of being 2 goals down and getting nothing back, Arsenal away, Chelsea away (they had 10 men for about 70 minutes inlcuding injury time), 3 down away at Newcastle, 2 down away at Forest, 3 down at Man City at home, 3 down at Man City away, 4 goals down away at Fulham, 3 down at home to Liverpool.

 

Newcastle away in the cup, 2 down. Even Blackburn at home in the cup we were 2 down and never even got a replay/ET.

 

There literally wasn't 1 game last season where we were 2 goals down at any point and managed to get something out of the game, unless I've missed one somewhere.

 

We also gave away a 2 goal leads at Brentford opening day of the season.

 

 

 

The season before was similar, lost a 2 goal lead away at Palace, lost a 2 goal lead at home to Napoli, went 2 down at Napoli away, got it to 2-2 then lost 3-2.

 

Did manage to get a win against Moscow as Stan says after being 2-0 down, we scored to make it 2-1 just a few seconds after they scored.

 

 

We just seem to be soft, there hasn't been fight in this team for 3/4 years now. As soon as we go 2 down the game is done, as soon as we concede a late goal, you know we'll concede another if we're still in the match, or heads will start going and cards will start coming, either reds or yellows resulting in bans.

 

Vardy, Albrighton or Coady, we need one of them on the pitch at any given time IMO. These 3 are the leaders and the experienced heads you need in these situations.

 

[CosbehFox]

If you want to bring some stats to the 'Are Ipswich fortunate' debate

 

According to FBref - actual goals 70, xG 56.4 and their expected assists which is probably the biggest indicator is 41 which suggests a bit of fortune there. 

 

However their xGA - goals against suggests they've been unlucky at the back. 

 

Opta's expected points to actual point had us, Saints and Ipswich all with high differences 

[STEVIE B]

2 minutes ago, FoxOnWheels said:

With our form and fixtures I don’t see us getting the required points to stay above rivais

But this league is mad. 

Nobody had us down to lose on Saturday, draw at Sheff Weds, lose against 'Boro x 2, Leeds not to beat 10 man Udders. 

Plenty of surprises to come yet. 

[RonnieTodger]

What with the Southampton game being rearranged and Leeds/Ipswich’s upcoming games, we could be out the top two pretty quickly.

 

Think it’ll go down to the wire. 

[Pub breath]

4 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

If you want to bring some stats to the 'Are Ipswich fortunate' debate

 

According to FBref - actual goals 70, xG 56.4 and their expected assists which is probably the biggest indicator is 41 which suggests a bit of fortune there. 

 

However their xGA - goals against suggests they've been unlucky at the back. 

 

Opta's expected points to actual point had us, Saints and Ipswich all with high differences 

Leeds?

[Les-TA-Jon]

23 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

  Oh behave yourself lad!!

What's wrong with the +6 swing vs Leeds? 

 

If Daka's perfectly good goal doesn't get ruled out, that's 2-0 to Leicester at a crucial time and they probably see out the game? That's +3 points for Leicester and -3 for Leeds...?

[Les-TA-Jon]

29 minutes ago, Dollers said:

No my laugh was because you've changed two incidents in your favour to make that table. Every other team has incidents go wrongly for and against them. You can't just pluck out two, make them favour you (also assume the pen was scored), and then update the table accordingly! Well you can but it would be utterly pointless.

Sure. As i've said multiple times - every team has their 'woulda, coulda, shoulda stories' and I'm not interested in the 'luck debate' for or against for Leicester/Leeds/Ipswich/Southampton.

 

But the fact remains, Leicester should have been 2-0 up in both Ipswich away and Leeds away had the officials done their job. You can't just ignore that. 

[FoxOnWheels]

10 minutes ago, STEVIE B said:

But this league is mad. 

Nobody had us down to lose on Saturday, draw at Sheff Weds, lose against 'Boro x 2, Leeds not to beat 10 man Udders. 

Plenty of surprises to come yet. 

Hope your right mate but the amount of ground we’ve dropped second half of the season and with our current form can’t see it changing

[CosbehFox]

4 minutes ago, Pub breath said:

Leeds?

Leeds actual points were about bang on on Opta's last analysis

 

Actual Goals - 65

xG - 61.3

xAG - 43.8

 

They are the most realistic of stats/performance comparison of the top four. Ie. they are performing exactly to what the stats suggest. That evens includes goals against to expected goals against (28 to 29) 

 

F'kin hell you can tell I am off work today 

[Pub breath]

6 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

What's wrong with the +6 swing vs Leeds? 

 

If Daka's perfectly good goal doesn't get ruled out, that's 2-0 to Leicester at a crucial time and they probably see out the game? That's +3 points for Leicester and -3 for Leeds...?

You lost 3-1.  I can accept that Leeds were lucky but we weren't a 3 goal swing lucky.

All the stats for the game were pretty even apart from possession, which was well in Leeds favour.  That suggests a draw was fairer.

[CosbehFox]

I'd say also say the data in terms of 'expected' performance has Ipswich 4th on every single of the categories - that includes on a 90 minute ratio as well. 

[Pub breath]

3 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Leeds actual points were about bang on on Opta's last analysis

 

Actual Goals - 65

xG - 61.3

xAG - 43.8

 

They are the most realistic of stats/performance comparison of the top four. Ie. they are performing exactly to what the stats suggest. That evens includes goals against to expected goals against (28 to 29) 

 

F'kin hell you can tell I am off work today 

Ha ha!

Thanks for that, interesting and actually, i'm not hugely surprised. I don't think we've been either unlucky or lucky at either end this season, especially so that tallies.  I do think we've been robbed by some awful officiating at times but most teams probably feel that way.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Everyone will finish where they deserve to. 

 

We had the opportunity to be absolutely out of sight and we've blown it.