Opta’s Expected Points

[Daggers]

[filbertway]

Ourselves, Ipswich and Preston are big outliers in terms of getting rub of the green then  

 

Imagine the first 4 games are a large contributor to that

[Ric Flair]

Is expected points based on xG only? I'd be surprised if there's been many games except possibly Coventry that we weren't superior in the stats.

[Richard]

So basically we score more goals than expected. I.e. we have better players than other teams in the league. 
 

who knew

[Daggers]

“However, Leeds are playing like the second best…”

 

https://www.leedsallover.com/revealed-leeds-united-second-best-side-in-championship-so-far-under-daniel-farke/

[ThumbsUp]

xPoints is far dumber than xg and not really worth considering as a standalone stat.

[KingsX]

4 minutes ago, Daggers said:

“However, Leeds are playing like the second best…”

https://www.leedsallover.com/revealed-leeds-united-second-best-side-in-championship-so-far-under-daniel-farke/

 

Never trust a man whose face is puffier than his jacket

 

[foxes_rule1978]

Regardless we are still the best 

[filbertway]

17 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Is expected points based on xG only? I'd be surprised if there's been many games except possibly Coventry that we weren't superior in the stats.

It's not strictly based on xG alone.

 

If you're interested this is a decent explanation

https://tacticsnotantics.org/statistical-models-and-analyses/expected-points-models-part-i

 

Team A has xG of 1.8 and Team B has xG of 1.1

Basically they'll put the 2 teams xG into a random simulator and simulate the game say 100 times for simplicity.

 

If team A 
Win 65%

Draw 20%

Lose 15%

 

The xPts = (3 x 0.65) + (1 x 0.2) + (0 x 0.15)

 

Which would be xPts of  2.15.

 

Obviously the more games you simulate, the more accurate it will be in theory. I imagine opta run the xG stats through at least 10-20 thousand simulations.

 

 

[Trav Le Bleu]

So we're winning the league, but more so?

[filbertway]

13 minutes ago, ThumbsUp said:

xPoints is far dumber than xg and not really worth considering as a standalone stat.

And yet 18/24 (75%) are within 4pts accuracy.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Interestingly we're top and 2 points clear in either scenario

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Leeds will be dining out on this for about a month.

[Daggers]

18 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Leeds will be dining out on this for about a month.

They're sure to get sick of roast whippet and sautéed flat caps at some point 

[OatcakeFox]

12 minutes ago, Daggers said:

They're sure to get sick of roast whippet and sautéed flat caps at some point 

Cue ‘**** the Tories from the Gelderd end.

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, Daggers said:

“However, Leeds are playing like the second best…”

 

https://www.leedsallover.com/revealed-leeds-united-second-best-side-in-championship-so-far-under-daniel-farke/

This is going to become Leeds problem. Overconfidence. 

 

Slowly beginning to believe Ipswich can pull this off provided everyone keeps writing them off and being very open to them ala Leicester 15/16 until January. 

[gurru991]

Farka is doing a good job with Leeds & I have no doubt they will be in the running for automatic promotion at the end of the season. We just need to worry about ourselves  and make sure everyone else is fighting for the number two spot.

[Pliskin]

Leeds will come up with us automatically. Playoffs will be very interesting though. Imagine a scenario with Ipswich, Plymouth and Sunderland all in there…… 

[weller54]

We're promoted!..

Stop the count.

[coolhandfox]

Only thing that matters is the points you have, not the point you should or shouldn't have.

 

 

[Ric Flair]

6 hours ago, filbertway said:

And yet 18/24 (75%) are within 4pts accuracy.

When our actual results are basically 3 points every game, the sheer domination in this calculation to narrow the expected vs actual to align is probably unlikely.

 

The fewer the actual points, the easier to be on a par or better.