Election prediction time

[DJ Barry Hammond]

18 minutes ago, Leicesterpool said:
 

I won't be suprised in five years there will once again be another party change, especially if Nigel chooses to go Tory and goes for the leadership.

I can’t see how this happens.

 

Nigel has effectively parked his tanks on Conservative lawns and sent volley after volley for almost 20 years - so would they actually contemplate letting him in the party? 
 

Well, ok, maybe they would because they’re going to be pretty desperate…

 

… but then does Nigel’s ego allow him to join them, especially if it’s not for the top job? 
 

He’s leader and chief dividend recipient of his party (ahem, Private Company!), the Conservative brand is in the toilet and the demographic of support he’s built under UKIP / Brexit Party / Reform is not a natural fit for the Conservative party.

 

Even one of his main MO’s of being anti-establishment is incompatible to what the Conservatives are… making a great replacement much more likely than an integrated union.

[mancunianfox]

Depending on how Reform do I can see a scenario where they merge with the Tory party and he becomes leader. Would take them to win a lot of seats most likely and of course for Farage to win his.

[bovril]

6 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

please just make it stop 

[Leicesterpool]

The idea of Farage becoming Prime Minister in years to come is not impossible. Sunak will struggle to remain leader party after this defeat and theres not many decent mps out there on tory side showing suitable signs of being good enough... or dare we say mad boris returns.

[Bellend Sebastian]

5 hours ago, Daggers said:

I’m beginning to think that neither the Express or the Tories have our best interests at heart

 

 

You missed my favourite: "AT LAST: A TRUE TORY BUDGET" just before the "woke gilt markets" shat themselves

[Sampson]

I think the make up of the Tory party after tonight is going to be one of the key things on the fallout tomorrow. Whether it’s the moderates or the right of the party left and which way they lurch. 
 

Part of my thinks their only real hope is to get into bed with Reform and move even further into right wing populism depressingly. 

[SpacedX]

Just now, Sampson said:

Part of my thinks their only real hope is to get into bed with Reform and move even further into right wing populism depressingly. 

What a terrifying prospect. 

 

Irrespective of what people may think of the Tory Party, they are not solely populated by alt-right lunatics. There are moderates who need to wrest control of the party back from the more extreme leaning factions, just as it was important for Labour to exorcise and purge the Corbynistas. 

[Voll Blau]

I see "Nigel" is the new "Boris" then?

 

It's Farage, lads. He's not you best mate and he doesn't want to be.

[Sampson]

59 minutes ago, SpacedX said:

What a terrifying prospect. 

 

Irrespective of what people may think of the Tory Party, they are not solely populated by alt-right lunatics. There are moderates who need to wrest control of the party back from the more extreme leaning factions, just as it was important for Labour to exorcise and purge the Corbynistas. 

100% agreed. Feel sorry for the Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson and Anna Soubry moderate types who’ve had their party wrestled away from them by the right wing populists like Braverman, Patel and Rees-Mogg.

Edited 4 July 2024 by Sampson

[leicsmac]

16 minutes ago, SpacedX said:

What a terrifying prospect. 

 

Irrespective of what people may think of the Tory Party, they are not solely populated by alt-right lunatics. There are moderates who need to wrest control of the party back from the more extreme leaning factions, just as it was important for Labour to exorcise and purge the Corbynistas. 

 

9 minutes ago, Sampson said:

100% agreed. Feel sorry for the Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson and Anna Soubry moderate types who’ve had their party taken wrestled away from them by the right wing populists like Braverman, Patel and Rees-Mogg.

It would be darkly hilarious if the potential consequences weren't so severe, for everyone.

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

I see "Nigel" is the new "Boris" then?

 

It's Farage, lads. He's not you best mate and he doesn't want to be.

But his slick PR moves and online astroturfing campaign across social media says otherwise, and apparently that counts for something.

[izzymuzzet]

The future of the Conservative Party could rest on whether Penny Mordaunt retains her Portsmouth North seat. Win it and she's odds on to be the next Tory leader. Lose and Kemi Badenoch is probably favourite. Two very different trajectories and there's probably only going to be a few hundred votes in it.

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

The future of the Conservative Party could rest on whether Penny Mordaunt retains her Portsmouth North seat. Win it and she's odds on to be the next Tory leader. Lose and Kemi Badenoch is probably favourite. Two very different trajectories and there's probably only going to be a few hundred votes in it.

Badenoch is very likely to lose her seat I thought

[izzymuzzet]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

Badenoch is very likely to lose her seat I thought

It would be a major surprise if she loses her seat. Not totally out of the question but only one MRP from the many published in the last few weeks has her losing. If she does lose then we are looking at the Conservatives being sub-60 seats I think.

[Corky]

1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

I see "Nigel" is the new "Boris" then?

 

It's Farage, lads. He's not you best mate and he doesn't want to be.

Offensive that he shares a name with the great man.

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Sampson]

3 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

It would be a major surprise if she loses her seat. Not totally out of the question but only one MRP from the many published in the last few weeks has her losing. If she does lose then we are looking at the Conservatives being sub-60 seats I think.

I must’ve read wrong then. Frightening thought that she could become Tory leader tbh.

[Daggers]

Ivan, Dmitry, Vladimir and Oleg from the “local drink place” have totes legit voted. 
 

 

[Mike the Metal Ed]

24 minutes ago, izzymuzzet said:

It would be a major surprise if she loses her seat. Not totally out of the question but only one MRP from the many published in the last few weeks has her losing. If she does lose then we are looking at the Conservatives being sub-60 seats I think.

She could but it would require a lot of Lib Dem voters to vote Labour with the express goal of getting her out and I don't think that much will is there.

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

100% agreed. Feel sorry for the Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson and Anna Soubry moderate types who’ve had their party wrestled away from them by the right wing populists like Braverman, Patel and Rees-Mogg.

Talking of which 

 

 

 

[Wymsey]

 

 

[tom27111]

27 minutes ago, Daggers said:

Ivan, Dmitry, Vladimir and Oleg from the “local drink place” have totes legit voted. 
 

 

 

"That drink place" is probably The Earl of Dalkeith in Kettering 

[Leicesterpool]

Imagine humiliation if the tories slip to third behind reform.

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, Leicesterpool said:

Imagine humiliation if the tories slip to third behind reform.

The danger would be 3rd behind Lib Dems which a couple of polls have predicted but seems very unlikely.

 

Reform don’t have enough concentrated vote for it to translate into seats. 

Edited 4 July 2024 by Sampson

[Jimothy]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

100% agreed. Feel sorry for the Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson and Anna Soubry moderate types who’ve had their party wrestled away from them by the right wing populists like Braverman, Patel and Rees-Mogg.

Ken Clarke too. The demise of the tory party started when Johnson removed all these very talented politicians because of Brexit. I don't agree with them on most things, but I respect them all for the way they conduct themselves.