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ronnup

Seven Games

By ronnup, in Leicester City Forum

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted (edited)

Across every twenty team PL season, the number of wins for teams finishing 17th: 

 

Low: 6

Average: 9.1 

High: 11 

 

Given how poor the bottom 4-5 are, I’d wager the team finishing 17th will require 7-9 wins 

 

The ‘18th place +1 point average’ is 35.8 points

Edited by Les-TA-Jon
AjcW

AjcW

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pita said:

With the way we re playing 6 or 7 wins looks a very long way off. 

I think the OP is making the point that we need another 4 or 5 wins, not 7 more :) 

AjcW

AjcW

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Across every twenty team PL season, the number of wins for teams finishing 17th: 

 

Low: 6

Average: 9.1 

High: 11 

 

Given how poor the bottom 4-5 are, I’d wager the team finishing 17th will require 7-9 wins 

 

The ‘18th place +1 point average’ is 35.8 points

I keep using the example that teams are as crap, if not worse than last year, and Forest actually only needed 27 points to survive. 

It'll be another low one this year I think... whether that means survival or not is another thing entirely, could well be that 18th place just has a very low points total again!

  • Like 1
Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted (edited)

Southampton, Ipswich, Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford all good opportunities.

 

West Ham, Man U, Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth, all have potential.

 

Might as well add Man City X2 at the moment too.

Edited by Number 6
  • Like 2
StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted

Home games:

Man City 

Palace

Fulham 

Arsenal

Brentford 

Man Utd 

Newcastle 

Liverpool 

Southampton 

Ipswich 

 

Away games:

Villa

Tottenham 

Everton 

West Ham

Chelsea

Man City 

Brighton 

Forest 

Bournemouth 

 

 

Genuinely, with the current squad and availability of players, I can see us only winning 2-3 of the home games (Palace, Saints, Ipswich) and perhaps one away game (maybe Everton or West Ham). 

 

If it comes to the final day against Bournemouth at theirs, I don't have faith in us to do what we need to do to stay up, even if it's in our own hands. And that's before taking into account they may have their own ambition of Europe to play for I worry we get relegated at Forest which would be the ultimate embarrassment. 

 

 

But the things that may change my mind are January's transfer business or getting a couple or a few bonus draws/victories. Perhaps catching a side or two on a bad day either home or away, like Fulham or Brentford at home or Brighton or Spurs away. 

 

Other than that, I don't think there's gonna be many happy feelings at full time based on current status of our club. 

  • Like 2
BlackFox

BlackFox

Posted
Posted (edited)

Everyone here are saying how poor the bottom 5 teams are like it gives us any chance of survival. 

Well,  besides Southampton we are the worst team in the league by mile.  The only reason we were able to stay above 17th place is pure luck. Tbh i believe that by the end of the season they will finish above us. We're that bad. 

And it really doesn't matter who the manager is. BTW  i do believe the RVN is an improvement on Cooper, but unless there will some drastic in the club, I don't see us surviving this season, let alone coming back to the PL after we're relegated, i.e. firing Rudkin, new physio team, let RVN bring his own team of coaches, and of sign a few players,  preferably young talents rather old and experienced. 

Edited by BlackFox
foxinsocks

foxinsocks

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Across every twenty team PL season, the number of wins for teams finishing 17th: 

 

Low: 6

Average: 9.1 

High: 11 

 

Given how poor the bottom 4-5 are, I’d wager the team finishing 17th will require 7-9 wins 

 

The ‘18th place +1 point average’ is 35.8 points

the last few years with more clubs being close at the top has reduced the points required for survival - forest survived with 32 points

Edited by foxinsocks
Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

the last few years with more clubs being close at the top has reduced the points required for survival - forest survived with 32 points

Forest only needed 27 points to stay up last season. The lowest ever. 
 

The last 10 years required to stay up: 

 

Low: 27

average: 34

High: 38 

Bilo

Bilo

Posted
Posted

We've got three wins on the board already, so probably need another four. That takes us to 26 points.

 

After that, we most likely need another seven or eight draws. 

 

So we need a record as follows between now and the end of the season.

 

W4 

D8

L8

 

I have to be honest and say I don't see where they're coming.

 

W chances

 

Palace (H)

Brentford (H)

Southampton (H)

Ipswich (H)

Wolves (A)

 

D chances 

 

West Ham (A)

Fulham (H)

Man United (H)

Everton (A)

Man City (H) NB: Only on current form

 

L chances

 

Tottenham (A)

Villa (A)

Arsenal (H)

Man City (A)

Chelsea (A)

Newcastle (H)

Brighton (A)

Liverpool (H)

Forest (A)

Bournemouth (A)

 

In other words, unless we win and draw ALL of the above W and D matches, we have to try and get something out of the bottom group of fixtures and I just don't see it.

  • Thanks 1
Bilo

Bilo

Posted
Posted
Just now, LeePhilpottsBaldSpot said:

Seems too early to be able to make predictions like this.

 

Our run in is decent;

 

Wolves (a)

Southampton (h)

Forest (a)

Ipswich (h)

Bournemouth (a)

 

Keep within touching distance going into the last five and we have a chance.

We'll get nothing out of Forest away. We couldn't even win there when they were shit.

 

Bournemouth if they've already qualified for Europe and it's a dead rubber, perhaps.

Sunbury Fox

Sunbury Fox

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Bilo said:

We've got three wins on the board already, so probably need another four. That takes us to 26 points.

 

After that, we most likely need another seven or eight draws. 

 

So we need a record as follows between now and the end of the season.

 

W4 

D8

L8

 

I have to be honest and say I don't see where they're coming.

 

W chances

 

Palace (H)

Brentford (H)

Southampton (H)

Ipswich (H)

Wolves (A)

 

D chances 

 

West Ham (A)

Fulham (H)

Man United (H)

Everton (A)

Man City (H) NB: Only on current form

 

L chances

 

Tottenham (A)

Villa (A)

Arsenal (H)

Man City (A)

Chelsea (A)

Newcastle (H)

Brighton (A)

Liverpool (H)

Forest (A)

Bournemouth (A)

 

In other words, unless we win and draw ALL of the above W and D matches, we have to try and get something out of the bottom group of fixtures and I just don't see it.

Looking at it set out like this, it is hard to argue with any of the 10 fixtures you have down as a loss, apart from maybe Brighton and Bournemouth, if they're marooned in mid table with no chance of Europe by the time we play them. 

 

So, as you say, we could need some of result in all of the remaining games to stay up. But I think results in 8 could be enough ie w6 D2 or W5 D3, as I think 32 points could be enough this season. It's a risk, banking on that, of course. 

ithuriel

ithuriel

Posted
Posted (edited)

Requires a good transfer window done quickly, can see a long drawn out window with a couple of no hopers coming in to clutter the squad even more, not saying I have no faith in Rudders, honestly:ph34r:

Edited by ithuriel
Mickyblueeyes

Mickyblueeyes

Posted
Posted

Firstly, this is a relegation scrap and we are for all intent purposes aiming for 17th. No team, in the history of the top league has finished 17th and been “good”. We are going to be shit all year. The season we went down we beat (and battered) Forest, Spurs, Wolves and Villa. Outplayed, West Ham and Everton. At Christmas we looked odds on to stay up and actually push up the league. Forest and Everton were just as shit (if not more so) than us.

 

Second, as you get to the end of the season, those teams that feel unbeatable at the start, middle of the season start to jitter - pressure kicks in, think of us v Bournemouth and Newcastle when we were pushing for the top 4 and both were fighting relegation. Arsenal also do it every year. 
 

Thirdly, English teams are doing well in Europe and squads will be pushed come Feb/March. The odd dodgy result around that time is quite normal.
 

We just need to stay in it. The games we think we can win (Wolves at home) will give us heartbreak but if we can, we will pull out a rabbit out the hat. 

shailen

shailen

Posted
Posted

We're not Southampton ffs. We're in the mix and only a win behind Palace and Everton who we can drag back in. We all need to get a grip and not act like we're massively underachieving. This is the reality of where we are as a club. Can we do it? Of course we can. We score goals and have an attacking threat which is the most important thing imo. Defensively we are weak but let's hope we can put that right sooner rather than later.

  • Like 2
Number 6

Number 6

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bilo said:

We've got three wins on the board already, so probably need another four. That takes us to 26 points.

 

After that, we most likely need another seven or eight draws. 

 

So we need a record as follows between now and the end of the season.

 

W4 

D8

L8

 

I have to be honest and say I don't see where they're coming.

 

W chances

 

Palace (H)

Brentford (H)

Southampton (H)

Ipswich (H)

Wolves (A)

 

D chances 

 

West Ham (A)

Fulham (H)

Man United (H)

Everton (A)

Man City (H) NB: Only on current form

 

L chances

 

Tottenham (A)

Villa (A)

Arsenal (H)

Man City (A)

Chelsea (A)

Newcastle (H)

Brighton (A)

Liverpool (H)

Forest (A)

Bournemouth (A)

 

In other words, unless we win and draw ALL of the above W and D matches, we have to try and get something out of the bottom group of fixtures and I just don't see it.

It just doesn't play out like this though. We'll pick up some points from your L pile: Ipswich drew away at Brighton and beat Spurs away, Southampton also picked up a point against Brighton.

 

I think all of the D chances here are W chances. 

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