The US Presidential Elections.

[Alf Bentley]

On average, though, poll "aggregators" and "averagers" do a decent job of evening things out. Single polls are just snapshots of the electorate, and they may be out of focus. Bias is still possible, but on average, bias doesn't appear to be egregious in most reputable pollsters, and we won't know just how much bias is in the polls (or if there is any) until Wednesday.

The Republicans could sneak out a majority in the Senate, but that is highly unlikely now. The GOP had a great chance to pick up enough seats in the Senate this summer, but some of their campaigns have self-destructed because a couple of morons have said some crazy sh*t about rape.

I have no doubt that a Romney win + a Republican Congress would mean at least the repeal of "Obamacare," restrictions on abortion, and more aggressive military posturing against Iran. A Romney win + Dem Senate hold + GOP House hold would probably not put too many roadblocks in place for the GOP to pass legislation as conservative Dems would probably cross party lines on a lot of votes.

Politicians and pundits are already expressing concerns that the House Republicans would again hold the economy hostage by refusing to pass legislation to raise the "debt ceiling" (and as such, voluntarily put the U.S. government in default of its debt) in exchange for legislation that fits their ideology either in the lame-duck session or in the 113th Congress beginning in January if the Dems hold the White House and Senate while the GOP holds the House.

The whole Obama/Christie dynamic was a real moment for America to pause and reflect on a moment of "bipartisanship"--particularly one involving a contentious political rivalry--at a time when such unity is becoming increasingly rare.

As for Obama and race, it is remarkable how differently various people view Obama, and how that has shaped what he's become. Because Obama looks more "black," he has become embraced by America's black community but also vilified by racists that see him more as a caricature than a person.

I hope you're right about the aggregated polls being fairly accurate, as there seems a lot at stake - particularly given your prediction that a Romney presidency/Republican House could get a lot of their agenda through even if the Democrats retain the Senate.

At least 1 of those idiot statements about rape (the first one) even got coverage over here - and Mr. Christie's future contender status has been mentioned.

The BBC's "Newsnight" programme last night had 3 American journalists talking about the potential consequences of the election, and the consensus seemed to be that some sort of compromise would be found to avoid the "fiscal cliff" budget issue - to "punt" it down the road, as 1 of them put it. I dare say there might be some brinkmanship before that happens, but would either side really gamble on benefiting from the market, economic & social mayhem that would probably ensue - or on the other side being blamed?

It's funny how the American public so want "bipartisanship", yet are so polarized in their opinions! Similarly, in the UK, people often sigh and want the parties to stop slating one another and to "work together" (maybe a bit less so, on all sides, after they've seen a coalition in action!). I find this a bit ridiculous as, even today, there are some fundamental differences between the main UK parties' beliefs and policies (fewer than 20-40 years ago, but still significant). The only solution that I can see, apart from people wising up to the existence of ideology/politics, is greater devolution of power - to councils, in a UK context, so that different localities with different priorities can pursue those (but even then, who would fund the higher spending that might be preferred in areas that were left-leaning or had greater social needs? Significantly higher council tax/local income tax in particular areas would be very unpopular, and bigger selective transfers from central government would enrage voters in areas opting for low tax & low public spending).

I sometimes forget the massive differences between the respective racial histories of the US and the UK. Namely, the US having a 200-300-year history of a large black population, initially in slavery and then under segregation (apartheid, effectively) as recently as 50 years ago.... Although the UK has a long history of immigration, large-scale non-white immigration is mainly a feature of the last 60 years or so, and has been overwhelmingly voluntary and for self-benefit, even if tensions have arisen. Of course, Britain did its imperial plundering (e.g. introducing slavery into what is now the US), but the effects were largely felt elsewhere until recent decades.

I'm hoping that I've no urgent work to do on Wednesday morning, so that I can stay up into the small hours tonight. I might even see if I can find a few decent bottles of American beer (I'm a sad case!). I'll probably come on here later tonight to see if any of our Stateside correspondents are offering pearls of wisdom (are you American, Jordan, or are you a Leicester lad gone native?).

Once the dust settles, I hope there'll still be a few more "letters from America" appearing on here (as a child, I remember always having to keep quiet when my Grandpa, an Irish immigrant to England with multiple siblings in Connecticut, was listening to Alistair Cooke's "Letter from America" broadcasts...maybe that pricked my curiosity at an early age).

[Phube]

I don't understand an election system where no one bothers to count the votes and relies on the media to guess who wins until one candidate gives up?

[placidcasual]

Dear World,

You are welcome.

Hugs and Kisses,

Ohio

[ozleicester]

OBAMA WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest MattP]

Well done Mt Obama. The next four years are huge now, he's been given another chance on not a lot. He can't fail.

No idea where the Republicans go from here, if they can't win after a term like that it doesnt bode well, massive changes needed by the looks of it.

[notnow john]

Thought Romney sounded more statesmanlike conceding than he had at any time previously. If only he had been like that during the campaign!

[MC Prussian]

FOUR MORE YEARS!!!

[Raj]

i Like Obama.

Good luck to him.

[MooseBreath]

I reckon Romney would have smashed it is it wasn't for his old school war outlook. Too reminiscent of gwb, too soon. All the republicans need is a man who can shed that image, probably by telling lots of lies, and they'll be back in. People won't tolerate all talk no action lefties forever.

[The Doctor]

Get in. It may have come down to the shinier of the two turds, but Obama has been rolled in far more glitter than Romney was.

Absolutely embarrassing for the republicans mind - Florida yet to declare but leaning democrat (according to the beeb), could be a margin of well over 100 EV's.

[Mack]

Obama is for me a good man amongst a pit of snakes.

Thankfully he won.

[MC Prussian]

I reckon Romney would have smashed it is it wasn't for his old school war outlook. Too reminiscent of gwb, too soon. All the republicans need is a man who can shed that image, probably by telling lots of lies, and they'll be back in. People won't tolerate all talk no action lefties forever.

Democrats are hardly left-wingers, it's only far-right dimwits who tend to label them as such (amongst other hilarious terms like "socialist", "marxist" or "communist"). In a simplistic party world like the American one, the Democrats cover right-of-the-centre liberal grounds. There's a leftist movement embodied by the Green Party, but they only play a marginal to nom-existing role, unfortunately.

I am glad Obama won and that he has been given another four years to change things around for the better. It won't be easy, though. As long as the House of Representatives is still in the hands of the Republicans, progress will be slowed down.

[Jon the Hat]

A surprising margin but not a surprising result. The Republicans may not win again until they start to genuinely reform. Too many people have now discovered they ave the power through their vote, and the votes of women and minority groups have become more important that the right wing. Their best hope i nfour year is Condi Rice, but I doubt they are disciplined enough to select her.

[purpleronnie]

Phew.

[Fox in the North]

Democrats are hardly left-wingers, it's only far-right dimwits who tend to label them as such (amongst other hilarious terms like "socialist", "marxist" or "communist"). In a simplistic party world like the American one, the Democrats cover right-of-the-centre liberal grounds. There's a leftist movement embodied by the Green Party, but they only play a marginal to nom-existing role, unfortunately.

I am glad Obama won and that he has been given another four years to change things around for the better. It won't be easy, though. As long as the House of Representatives is still in the hands of the Republicans, progress will be slowed down.

My thoughts exactly.

[MC Prussian]

A surprising margin but not a surprising result. The Republicans may not win again until they start to genuinely reform. Too many people have now discovered they ave the power through their vote, and the votes of women and minority groups have become more important that the right wing. Their best hope i nfour year is Condi Rice, but I doubt they are disciplined enough to select her.

Well, what do you suggest as an alternative? A closed electoral system where only the rich and men (e.g. the rich men) can vote for the president?

Democracy means EVERYONE within the legal age bracket has the right to participate, regardless of gender, sexual orientation, skin colour or ethnic background.

And it is only fair that more and more Americans are being encouraged to take this opportunity and cast their vote.

And it was about time the minorities and women stepped up to make themselves heard. After all, they're just as American as everybody else.

Today, democracy won.

Today, the Democrats won.

Today, the world can utter a sigh of relief.

Here's to you, Barack Obama.

The only thing I wish for in the U.S. political regime would be the awakening and growth of at least one more party. But as of right now, that wish is unlikely to manifest itself in the near future.

[Guest]

I reckon Romney would have smashed it is it wasn't for his old school war outlook. Too reminiscent of gwb, too soon. All the republicans need is a man who can shed that image, probably by telling lots of lies, and they'll be back in. People won't tolerate all talk no action lefties forever.

Because lies and flip flopping on issues have worked so well for the republicans this time?

[MooseBreath]

If 55% of people voted for the other 45% to be killed, would you still say democracy "won"?

[MC Prussian]

If 55% of people voted for the other 45% to be killed, would you still say democracy "won"?

Isn't it funny how you don't reply to my original post at all, but come out with some hypothetical nonsense that has nothing to do with my comment?

Oh so typical.

When there's no substance left, MooseBreath goes the path of least intelligence.

[Vacamion]

If 55% of people voted for the other 45% to be killed, would you still say democracy "won"?

No.

The checks and balances within the system would prevent this.

I looked it up and the 14th Amendment to the bill of rights would prevent this.

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges ... of citizens ... nor ... deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny ... the equal protection of the laws.

[MooseBreath]

Isn't it funny how you don't reply to my original post at all, but come out with some hypothetical nonsense that has nothing to do with my comment?

Oh so typical.

When there's no substance left, MooseBreath goes the path of least intelligence.

. Calm down. I was just providing an antidote to your relentless championing of democracy. It might have won, but democracy winning isn't always for the best.

[Darkon84]

Im not hugely in to American politicis, but in brief, theres alot of people on here (and in general) cheering and applauding Obama staying in office. Do you really know why you're cheering and glad hes still in office, or do you just like his smile??

Theres a couple of people on here (Jordan etc) who clearly are up on their politics, so its not so much for you guys, just the ones shuffling around the edges.

[Jon the Hat]

Well, what do you suggest as an alternative? A closed electoral system where only the rich and men (e.g. the rich men) can vote for the president?

Democracy means EVERYONE within the legal age bracket has the right to participate, regardless of gender, sexual orientation, skin colour or ethnic background.

And it is only fair that more and more Americans are being encouraged to take this opportunity and cast their vote.

And it was about time the minorities and women stepped up to make themselves heard. After all, they're just as American as everybody else.

Today, democracy won.

Today, the Democrats won.

Today, the world can utter a sigh of relief.

Here's to you, Barack Obama.

The only thing I wish for in the U.S. political regime would be the awakening and growth of at least one more party. But as of right now, that wish is unlikely to manifest itself in the near future.

You read me wrong there. The previously disenfranchised starting to vote is brilliant. I was just saying that I don't believe that the traditional power base of the Republicans will ever get them into power again now that these groups have found their voice and grown in influence. This is good!! Republicans will have to move towards the centre to regain the Presidency. Hopefully we can see this centrist influence spread to congress.

[MC Prussian]

You read me wrong there. The previously disenfranchised starting to vote is brilliant. I was just saying that I don't believe that the traditional power base of the Republicans will ever get them into power again now that these groups have found their voice and grown in influence. This is good!! Republicans will have to move towards the centre to regain the Presidency. Hopefully we can see this centrist influence spread to congress.

That's more like it. Sorry if you got you slightly wrong in the first place.

It's true that it might/may force both the Democrats and Republicans to change their tactics accordingly to appeal to the people who couldn't/didn't or didn't want to vote before.

Like I said before, Americans would feel more represented if there was at least another party in the political spectrum they can relate to - and no, I'm not talking of the extreme right here.

[leicsmac]

Im not hugely in to American politicis, but in brief, theres alot of people on here (and in general) cheering and applauding Obama staying in office. Do you really know why you're cheering and glad hes still in office, or do you just like his smile??

Theres a couple of people on here (Jordan etc) who clearly are up on their politics, so its not so much for you guys, just the ones shuffling around the edges.

Probably no war with Iran. That's one of the main reasons why I'm happy with this result. Also from a social standpoint it means pro choice abortion laws in the US are safe, and from an environmental one it will hopefully mean less reliance on nonrenewables.

There are other reasons too, but they are the main ones.