The US Presidential Elections.

[MC Prussian]

. Calm down. I was just providing an antidote to your relentless championing of democracy. It might have won, but democracy winning isn't always for the best.

"Antidote to my relentless championing of democracy".

You really know how to make an intriguing headline out of a dry fart - do you work for a tabloid or are you active in political campaigning?

I concur with the notion that democracy cannot be fair all the times, but that it is still (up to this day) the best political solution out of a bad bunch.

[Vacamion]

Whilst it is to be hoped that this result will herald a Republican Party without religious nutcase based policy decisions, without its anti-gay, anti-birth control and "Birther" elements, without it's hawkish foreign policy leanings and which will no longer vow to overturn its (compared to ours relatively modest) new healthcare system and which will not discount 47% of its own citizens whilst proposing tax cuts for the insanely rich, I aint holding my breath...

If Ryan stands in 4 years and gets the nomination, I don't see the GOP having a President any time soon.

[MC Prussian]

Whilst it is to be hoped that this result will herald a Republican Party without religious nutcase based policy decisions, without its anti-gay, anti-birth control and "Birther" elements, without it's hawkish foreign policy leanings and which will no longer vow to overturn its (compared to ours relatively modest) new healthcare system and which will not discount 47% of its own citizens whilst proposing tax cuts for the insanely rich, I aint holding my breath...

If Ryan stands in 4 years and gets the nomination, I don't see the GOP having a President any time soon.

Interesting thoughts.

Right now, I'm tinkering with the scenario of the Republican Party splitting up.

One half will constitute of a more moderate wing under the current moniker, whilst the rest will form a more right-wing force that supports extremist views.

[Vacamion]

Interesting thoughts.

Right now, I'm tinkering with the scenario of the Republican Party splitting up.

One half will constitute of a more moderate wing under the current moniker, whilst the rest will form a more right-wing force that supports extremist views.

Yes, I think the Tea Party represented this sort of movement.

Don't get me wrong, most Americans of all political persuasions are, compared to most Europeans, "religious nutcases" - Politicians talk about praying for each other and what God wants etc in a way that European politicians just would not do and which makes many of us over here queasy, but that's been done to death in other threads and is not my point right now.

I meant that, on many social issues, maybe the Republicans have to accept that the culture wars are over and move to the centre. With some of the right wing media commentators you see on Fox and based on the Republican primaries this time, I wouldn't bet on it.

[Darkon84]

Probably no war with Iran. That's one of the main reasons why I'm happy with this result. Also from a social standpoint it means pro choice abortion laws in the US are safe, and from an environmental one it will hopefully mean less reliance on nonrenewables.

There are other reasons too, but they are the main ones.

Fair play to you there then

Though I dont see the Iran situation going anywhere fast and there will be increased pressure from Israel for talks/meetings.

I wasnt aware of the increased reliability on non-renewables, but thats the sort of point Id go for.

On the other hand, the monster defecit which was supposed to be halved, barely got touched, and a massive point I think gets overlooked alot, is the continuing operation at Guantanemo Bay. I think a new bill/legislation was even signed to prevent offshore detainees/prisinors to enter American soil, effectively allowing the place to keep running for the forseeable future. Scary how a president can get bullied in to that by the military

[21st Century Fox]

"How can I get some of his folk on my side? I know! I'll quote one of those hippidy-hop tunes they're always listening to! Yeah that'll get them on my side."

[Alf Bentley]

Pretty impressive prognosticating...only Colorado and Florida (probably) called wrong in the Presidential election, I think, and you'd expected them to be close....a career as a pollster beckons...

OK... I'm finally ready to make my official 2012 election prediction:

I've been flip-flopping on Colorado. Despite good recent polls for Barack Obama--and despite Latinos perhaps being under-represented in those polls--early voting indicates much enthusiasm for Mitt Romney. I had it blue yesterday, and I want to have it blue now, but I have Romney squeaking it out by something like 1.5 points--I see Romney voters as also more likely to hit the polls tomorrow.

Florida is also very much up for grabs, but it looks like Republicans have narrowed the early voting gap compared to 2008. I'm concerned about obstructions to voting in Florida, as Gov. Rick Scott & Co. do not seem the least bit interested in ensuring that voting is easy there. Some early voters waited up to nine hours to cast their ballots this weekend, which is a disgrace.

Obama's support is perking up in Virginia; I predict Obama will win those 13 EVs narrowly.

I see Romney fading in Nevada and struggling to break through in Iowa--solid GOTV operations will deliver those states to Obama.

I believe North Carolina will actually be a closer race than the Romney camp believes, but I don't think Obama has enough to win that state twice.

I think Ohio is close to being a lock for Obama unless there are voting irregularities there. Both sides have lawyers in the state ready to file a lawsuit at the first whiff of something they think smells fishy.

New Hampshire will be close, but I don't see much elasticity in that race. Obama will hold by a small margin--something like 2.5-3.0 points--but it's probably been like that in NH for months.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might wind up close--perhaps within 5 points--but I still don't think those states are in play. Those might be Romney's best chances for a surprise state win, though.

I predict voter turnout to be down nationally, to about 58%, compared to 61.6% in 2008. I don't expect the aftermath of Sandy to have a significant effect on the Presidential election, but it could effect some downballot voting. I predict Obama to win the national popular vote by 1.6 points.

As for the Senate, I expect a net change of zero in the balance of power, so I predict 53 seats in the Democratic caucus and 47 seats on the GOP side of the aisle once the results are in. I only expect a modest net gain in the House for the Democrats, but not enough to give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi: 236 R/199 D (+6 for the Dems).

Now that I've made my picks public, you'll all go back to my post on November 7 after I've been proven wrong, scratch your heads, and wonder why you all bothered to read a thing I've written this whole time. I am confident that Obama will win, but I know I'll wake up tomorrow nervous as f__k. I'm pretty sure, wherever I am, I will be pacing with a beer in my hand at 7:00 p.m. when the first state polls close.

[z-layrex]

Meanwhile in British politics...

[purpleronnie]

Meanwhile in British politics...

[Alf Bentley]

Food for thought: One of the reasons why Obama seems to have won is the ability to get young people engaged in politics. This is something that all the UK parties are generally very poor at and could learn from. Whatever your political views may be, and however much criticism you may have of the corruption and cynicism of many politicians and of the system itself, political engagement at some level is important....it's potentially very dangerous to stability and democracy if large numbers of people or particular groups feel completely alienated from politics. We can blame individuals, the education system or the media for part of this, but the parties themselves bear the most blame, I reckon.

Mind you, I'd be interested to know how turnout in the US elections varied between "battleground states" and safe Dem/Rep states. The US system has some of the same flaws as the UK electoral system, diverting all the attention to a minority of locations, though not quite to the same extent as the US battleground states cover a more diverse range of electorates than UK "swing seats". In the UK, at the level of both policy and organisation, Tories and Labour end up devoting nearly all their attention to seats in medium-sized towns or the suburbs of big cities. Labour can take the major cities for granted while the Tories know they're wasting their time there - while the opposite applies, in both cases, in rural areas. Without wishing to open up a whole new topic (that has probably been discussed to death before), that is one of the reasons I think a more proportional voting system would be healthier for democracy - there would be an incentive for each party to devote more attention to big cities and rural areas alike (and to understand them better)...and to engage more with groups who tend to vote less.

[21st Century Fox]

Meanwhile in British politics...

Pffftt. He's American anyway

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson

[21st Century Fox]

Wasn't this a joke on The Simpsons!!!

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election-2012/watch-voting-machine-penn-obama-vote-romney-article-1.1197783

[MC Prussian]

Wasn't this a joke on The Simpsons!!!

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1197783

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ

[ADK]

People saying the Republicans cannot win, you forget that the Democrats failed to beat Bush despite being quite an unpopular president. Romney wasn't a strong a candidate and you need someone with that spark of charisma. Bush had that charisma despite his flaws. Obama has that charisma too. People like Romney and Kerry are simply uninspiring.

When the Tories were utterly annihiliated in 1997, people wondered if they would ever regain power. Now we have a Tory government that in many areas is more right-wing than Thatcher ever was.

[21st Century Fox]

People saying the Republicans cannot win, you forget that the Democrats failed to beat Bush despite being quite an unpopular president. Romney wasn't a strong a candidate and you need someone with that spark of charisma. Bush had that charisma despite his flaws. Obama has that charisma too. People like Romney and Kerry are simply uninspiring.

When the Tories were utterly annihiliated in 1997, people wondered if they would ever regain power. Now we have a Tory government that in many areas is more right-wing than Thatcher ever was.

But we have a coalition. Romney would've stood a much better chance if he hadn't been browbeat into U-turning on all his more moderate stances by the hardline Republicans and the need to appeal to Teabaggers. The Republicans are fractured and need to decide whether they're going to keep running the rape philosophers.

[flowwolf]

People saying the Republicans cannot win, you forget that the Democrats failed to beat Bush despite being quite an unpopular president. Romney wasn't a strong a candidate and you need someone with that spark of charisma. Bush had that charisma despite his flaws. Obama has that charisma too. People like Romney and Kerry are simply uninspiring.

When the Tories were utterly annihiliated in 1997, people wondered if they would ever regain power. Now we have a Tory government that in many areas is more right-wing than Thatcher ever was.

And I thank the good lord and the more discerning public for that .

[leicsmac]

Politics and ideology has always been about swings and roundabouts. In a true democracy there'll always be change as people invariably get annoyed with the party in charge. Leads to dynamism, which is a good thing.

That said, while I see how people can be financially (or economically) conservative in this day and age (often that's a good thing), I simply don't get how someone can not approve of a womans right to choose, believe that evolution is a myth etc. Simply don't understand the mindset.

[Guesty]

Romney nor any other Republican has much of a chance at the minute - I was suprised the media was saying it was going to be so close. Republicans have to appeal to the ultra right-wing to become the republican nominee, but in doing so alienate the swing-voters who they need to persaude to vote for them in the presidentail election. Until they work that out I can't see them winning for a long time (unless Obama or the next democrat royally screws up) - especially as more young people and ethnic minorites are starting to vote.

One thing I am sick of is the amount of coverage it's got over here - first 15 mins on the 6 o'clock news is too much. Give it 10 years and they'll all be over in China.

[ADK]

Romney nor any other Republican has much of a chance at the minute - I was suprised the media was saying it was going to be so close. Republicans have to appeal to the ultra right-wing to become the republican nominee, but in doing so alienate the swing-voters who they need to persaude to vote for them in the presidentail election. Until they work that out I can't see them winning for a long time (unless Obama or the next democrat royally screws up) - especially as more young people and ethnic minorites are starting to vote.

One thing I am sick of is the amount of coverage it's got over here - first 15 mins on the 6 o'clock news is too much. Give it 10 years and they'll all be over in China.

Spoiler: The Communists win again.

[z-layrex]

Spoiler: The Communists win again.

[Jordan]

SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED!

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!

Well, well, well...

I'm thrilled that enough Americans deemed Barack Obama, one of my all-time favorite politicians, worthy of a second term.

My picks were close, but I'm kicking myself for flipping Colorado to red on Monday

I'm a little hung over (the good kind of hung over), so I will wait a bit before I start digesting the numbers.

One thing that is clear: the GOP has misunderstood the electorate and desperately needs to adapt to the changing demographics of our country. Our electorate is becoming younger and, shall we say, browner every year. It appears that the under-30 vote came through at the same rate as 2008 despite worries of a drop in enthusiasm. Minority groups voted in big numbers, and overwhelmingly in favor of the President. The Latino vote went to the polls in record numbers. Women rallied around Obama, and many that voted for Romney in Indiana and Missouri split their ticket to vote for Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill after the R candidates made their crazy rape comments.

Disdain for the President isn't enough to win an election. If the GOP doesn't bring more minority and women voters under its tent, they will have serious long term struggles to win The White House.

That's that for now.

[21st Century Fox]

It is pretty brilliant watching Fox News implode last night.

[Jon the Hat]

SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED!

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!

Well, well, well...

I'm thrilled that enough Americans deemed Barack Obama, one of my all-time favorite politicians, worthy of a second term.

My picks were close, but I'm kicking myself for flipping Colorado to red on Monday

I'm a little hung over (the good kind of hung over), so I will wait a bit before I start digesting the numbers.

One thing that is clear: the GOP has misunderstood the electorate and desperately needs to adapt to the changing demographics of our country. Our electorate is becoming younger and, shall we say, browner every year. It appears that the under-30 vote came through at the same rate as 2008 despite worries of a drop in enthusiasm. Minority groups voted in big numbers, and overwhelmingly in favor of the President. The Latino vote went to the polls in record numbers. Women rallied around Obama, and many that voted for Romney in Indiana and Missouri split their ticket to vote for Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill after the R candidates made their crazy rape comments.

Disdain for the President isn't enough to win an election. If the GOP doesn't bring more minority and women voters under its tent, they will have serious long term struggles to win The White House.

That's that for now.

That was pretty much what I was trying to say. GOP needs to change, and more than anything they need to move away from being aligned with the far right. Impossible to attract the voters they will need without becoming a lot more socially liberal.

[Jordan]

It is pretty brilliant watching Fox News implode last night.

You see, this is why we can't have nice things.

I know I shouldn't feed the Fox News trolls. But this is a guy, Bill O'Reilly, who gets paid millions of dollars to offer political and social commentary to millions of people--ostensibly with "no spin"--and this is the genius analysis he comes up with. Bill O'Reilly is a popular person! A lot of Americans actually listen to him often and think, "Hmm, he's got a good point there!"

First, he starts with aping Mitt Romney's absurd and offensive "47 percent" line (only he adds 3 percent to it). And then, it only gets better:

"Give them things?" If by "things," you mean elected officials that don't express disdain for government, then yes!

"An establishment candidate like Mitt Romney?" What is so establishment about Mitt Romney? He's never been in Washington! Clearly, by "establishment," O'Reilly means, "white."

"The white establishment is now a minority." Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. If every white voter voted for Romney, and every non-white voter voted for Obama, Romney would win in THE BIGGEST LANDSLIDE POPULAR VOTE EVER.

"You're gonna see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama." Romney suggested that undocumented immigrants should, and I quote, "self-deport!" He also called Arizona's strict (but contested) new immigration laws, which gave law enforcement officers free reign to stop and harass anybody that looked Mexican, a "model" that the nation should follow. No s__t they voted for Obama! Yeah, they want "stuff"--they want themselves and other people that look and talk like them to be treated like human beings!

"Overwhelming black vote for President Obama?" Of course! And not just because Obama has pretty much inspired and encouraged black voters an important part of the presidential election process for the first time ever, but also because of the clear anti-minority voter suppression efforts led by the GOP, or all the racism that comes from their side...

"Women will probably break President Obama's way?" News flash, Bill: Women like to be able to make decisions about their own health! Most women would like the right to use contraception! Most women would like to be able to have an abortion if they are raped and get pregnant because of rape! Women would not like to have to pay more for health insurance just because they're women! Women want to get the same pay that men get for doing the same job! This isn't hard to understand. American women aren't asking for the sun, the moon, and the stars. Rather, they're asking for, y'know, basic rights. Do you think they're going to break for the candidate and party that has campaigned against all of these "things?"

"People feel that they are entitled to 'things?'" Yes, if by "things," you mean civil rights...

The white establishment is now the minority? Dude, when the new Congress is inaugurated in January, count all of the white people, then count all of the non-white people, and tell me who's the majority (hint: it'll be the white people, by a massive margin).

And here's the most effed up part about it: people that like and believe what this clown is saying really feel that they are the victims here! I'm a white male that lives in America, and let me tell you from personal experience: being a white male in America is awesome. Wherever I go, I get great service. I never have to show ID at the polls on election day. Hell, I never have to show ID anywhere! Police officers leave me alone! When I go into a store, shopkeepers never treat me like I'm going to steal anything--and sometimes, they even give me good deals! When I wear a suit, people trust me! If I spend money I don't have to go get drunk, I'm not considered an alcoholic--I'm just a fun guy that likes a good party! If I haven't worked hard enough to make something of my life, I'm not considered lazy and a moocher--I'm just "growing up" and "finding myself!"

White people feel the economy is stacked against them? Really? Try being black, and see how much you'll like the economy that way!

That crap is nothing but racist dog-whistles.

[Smudge]

Several billions later and we have the status quo.

Maybe the President should have a 6 year term and the Speaker of the House should change every four years. Of course that's as likely to happen as changing electoral financing. It's just makes too much sense.