chili_con_carne Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Just worked out that the average points required to finish in 2nd place by a 1 point margin to 3rd place is 82 points. This is since the 2004/2005 season. Now say this is what we need. We need 45 more points from 24 games. If we average 2 points a game until the end of the season then it's a safe bet that we will get automatic promotion. If we won every single home game and lost every away game this would not be enough at a total of 73 points. In other words I just simply cannot see us getting automatic promotion. To get automatic promotion we will need a big winning streak sooner rather than later and I can't see it happening. Play offs here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z-layrex Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 I'd have sold my own grandmother for a playoff spot pre-season so this is all good. All I want from life is to see us beat Palace at Wembley again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chili_con_carne Posted 15 December 2012 Author Share Posted 15 December 2012 And also 82 points would be the absolute minimum as I've took the average points required to finish 1 point above third. If you worked out the average points of the team who finished 2nd it would no doubt be a lot higher than 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristianity77 Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 you say we need a winning streak but even during our "supposed" dodgy spell, in the last 6 games we have Won 3, Drawn 1, lost 2. Which is 10 points from 6. If we do that from now till the end of the season thats 77 points from where we are now which is nailed on playoffs. All we actually need to do to get right back into the mix for autos is beat Cardiff next week and try and get something, whether a draw or win at Hull. I fancy Cardiff to lose to us as they will come and play football which is exactly what Leicester like to play against. I can see Hull having a real go at there place as well as they like to get the ball down and play good football. That suits us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chili_con_carne Posted 15 December 2012 Author Share Posted 15 December 2012 My prediction is that cardiff and Middlesbrough will go up automatically with us finishing 5th or 6th. And no, we don't win the playoffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanLCFC18 Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Just worked out that the average points required to finish in 2nd place by a 1 point margin to 3rd place is 82 points. This is since the 2004/2005 season. Now say this is what we need. We need 45 more points from 24 games. If we average 2 points a game until the end of the season then it's a safe bet that we will get automatic promotion. If we won every single home game and lost every away game this would not be enough at a total of 73 points. In other words I just simply cannot see us getting automatic promotion. To get automatic promotion we will need a big winning streak sooner rather than later and I can't see it happening. Play offs here we come! the only way to tell is if you can read the future which personally i think is unlikely, you cant really go on previous years as where we finish will count on other results just as much as ours. Now i may just have too much faith in Pearson and our team and im definately not one of these fans that after a win think we'l finish top then after a loss think its all over, i believe we can finish top two and have the quality to do so and up until its mathematically impossible i will have faith. But id be over the moon with playoffs alsoHAVE FAITH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 We are a hell of alot more consistant than previous year and we are a hell of alot more improved, but I still think we are too inconsistant dropping point where we shouldn't, e.t.c, I don't think you can base anything on the past and I don't think you can predict anything as regards where we'll finished because we are still too inconsistant. More consistant, more improved but still could do alot better is the (Just before) mid-season report from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox42 Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 I fancy Cardiff to lose to us as they will come and play football which is exactly what Leicester like to play against. Really?? I thought they play American Football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deucalion Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Here's some interesting maths I have just done regarding points earned per game by each of Wes Morgan's partners in central defence. St. Ledger 18 in 6 which = 3 points per game. Whitbread 16 in 11 which = 1.45 points per game. Keane 1 in 1 Moore 3 in 4 which = 0.75 points per game. Did St Ledger's inclusion in the side just coincide with a remarkable run of form or was it responsible for it? Is he that good? The season seems to have three parts so far. The first part was playing well but not picking up points. For these games Moore was partnering Wes. The excellent run saw St Ledger partnering Wes and our inconsistent patch has saw Whitbread at centre half. I think it is a simplification to suggest St Ledger was the only reason we went on that winning run but the stats are striking for his importance to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theessexfox Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Here's some interesting maths I have just done regarding points earned per game by each of Wes Morgan's partners in central defence. St. Ledger 18 in 6 which = 3 points per game. Whitbread 16 in 11 which = 1.45 points per game. Keane 1 in 1 Moore 3 in 4 which = 0.75 points per game. Did St Ledger's inclusion in the side just coincide with a remarkable run of form or was it responsible for it? Is he that good? The season seems to have three parts so far. The first part was playing well but not picking up points. For these games Moore was partnering Wes. The excellent run saw St Ledger partnering Wes and our inconsistent patch has saw Whitbread at centre half. I think it is a simplification to suggest St Ledger was the only reason we went on that winning run but the stats are striking for his importance to us. I think Whitbread has been playing well in fairness, I get your point, and I know you understand this, but sometimes a centre-back's performance doesn't decide the match, and he cannot help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deucalion Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 I think Whitbread has been playing well in fairness, I get your point, and I know you understand this, but sometimes a centre-back's performance doesn't decide the match, and he cannot help it. I hate blaming individual players for things. It is just my impression was that we had looked at our best with St Ledger in the team and that is backed up by the stats. I think Whitbread had a bad start due to lack of match fitness. This shouldn't be as much of an issue now though should it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theessexfox Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 I hate blaming individual players for things. It is just my impression was that we had looked at our best with St Ledger in the team and that is backed up by the stats. I think Whitbread had a bad start due to lack of match fitness. This shouldn't be as much of an issue now though should it? Were you there today? (Not an accusation, just a general question) Because I thought he was good today, 1 goal away from home isn't awful, apart from giving away a few free-kicks he was probably near enough MOTM, winning everything in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deucalion Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Were you there today? (Not an accusation, just a general question) Because I thought he was good today, 1 goal away from home isn't awful, apart from giving away a few free-kicks he was probably near enough MOTM, winning everything in the air. I rarely go away these days. I'm also aware of a difference between the impression from the radio commentary and the stats for the game which made it look like Leicester had put up a much better fight than Stringer and co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 You don't have to be Einstein to know, points wise, we are good at home and pretty shite away. That's the only maths needed. Mark w and Babs will come up with some theory for this which favours Pearson, no doubt. Oh, and King... Whaddya I tell ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Play-offs would be a terrible season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry - LCFC Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Play-offs would be a terrible season. How about coming 3rd with 84 points, would that really be so awful? Disappointing yes but I think you'd be rather wrong to blame the players/management for this sort of outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 How about coming 3rd with 84 points, would that really be so awful? Disappointing yes but I think you'd be rather wrong to blame the players/management for this sort of outcome. My comment wasn't serious. I think the top 6 is a good season, top 2 obviously fantastic, and we're not out of it yet. We don't have the best squad yet we are still handily placed and with additions in January we could push on. I think Pearson has done really well this season, given the average age and size of the squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Fox Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 It depends what the Thais want at the end of the day I would hazard a guess they would want automatic promotion atm this team will deliver the playoffs if we continue this trend in form whether that is good enough or not remains to be seen imo automatic promotion is what we need to achieve and we can with the right investments in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry - LCFC Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Here's some interesting maths I have just done regarding points earned per game by each of Wes Morgan's partners in central defence. St. Ledger 18 in 6 which = 3 points per game. Whitbread 16 in 11 which = 1.45 points per game. Keane 1 in 1 Moore 3 in 4 which = 0.75 points per game. I think it is a simplification to suggest St Ledger was the only reason we went on that winning run but the stats are striking for his importance to us. It is. Morgan's points per game is 1.68 but most people think he's better than St Ledger. This kind of statistical method is extremely flawed because a player is only one elventh of the team - there are so many other factors that influence results that you simply cannot pin good form on one player. This method might work better over the whole season but when a player has only played a few games (6 in SSL's case) then their points per game can be very unrepresentative of their impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry - LCFC Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 My comment wasn't serious. I think the top 6 is a good season, top 2 obviously fantastic, and we're not out of it yet. We don't have the best squad yet we are still handily placed and with additions in January we could push on. I think Pearson has done really well this season, given the average age and size of the squad. Some people are actually silly enough to think POs would be poor given where we are, glad to hear you're not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfox Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 I can remember our record last season with St Ledger in the team and it was pretty horrible, even though he played quite well in the second part of the season. This season it is completely the opposite, with him in the team we did go on that amazing run, and the defence as a whole looked solid. I can't wait for St Ledger to get back, because I believe people judged him too early, bit like myself with Drinkwater but you get the picture. He is a decent defender, and definitely not a laughing stock, love the way he plays doesn't like to necessarily hoof all the time, likes to play it on the floor, can pick out our midfielders with some solid passes, his heading accuracy is something I like as well, most of his headers go to our own players feet, unlike Whitbread who can be a bit messy at times even those he is quite dominant in the air. Plus his distribution is good as well, he isn't a rash player and doesn't misjudge many things. The only fault I find with St Ledger is his strength against bigger strikers, he can match it against the smaller strikers in the division, one game in particular sticks out to me this season and that was Burnley, not the most glamorous of matches, but he dominated Paterson. Only small striker he struggled against in a match i've been to was West Ham away last season, when Baldock had his pants down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 Play-offs would be a terrible season. You're such a loser Corky. You'd bend over and pull yer pants down already really wouldn't ya? There's no reason whatsoever in this division, given a couple or three key signings, we couldn't finish top. None. It's wide open. Rather than crying yourself to sleep, look at how we can improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corky Posted 15 December 2012 Share Posted 15 December 2012 You're such a loser Corky. You'd bend over and pull yer pants down already really wouldn't ya? There's no reason whatsoever in this division, given a couple or three key signings, we couldn't finish top. None. It's wide open. Rather than crying yourself to sleep, look at how we can improve. Why don't you read my next post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester_Loyal Posted 16 December 2012 Share Posted 16 December 2012 We'll get play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl the Llama Posted 16 December 2012 Share Posted 16 December 2012 We'll get play offs. Why would you..? We're obviously going to just miss out now. :xmasangry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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