Guest MattP Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 Still think this is going to be very tight. Burnley, QPR and Villa I doubt will end with anything more than mid 30's.
Guest Bilo Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 There's no chance of 38 points being needed to stay up in this division. The record low is 34 points, and that looks set to be challenged this year.
David Hankey Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 I just can't believe those who cannot see reality. Yes, there is still a mathematical chance Leicester City can get out of "this mess" as NP calls it, but let's face reality - a paltry 4 wins and 6 draws is nowhere where we need to be at the end of February to retrieve the situation. Facts don't lie. And for anyone to suggest that we can turn this around with 12 games to go is really living in cloud cuckoo land. Not only will we have to be unbeaten in the majority of remaining games but you're also asking 2 or 3 other Clubs to go on a losing streak from now until May. It ain't goin' to happen!!
JimmyB Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 We're by no means down yet, but skating on very thin ice. If the 3 teams above take on average a point a game for the remainder of the season then we'd need 16 points to stay up. That's mid table form, realistically if we pull our heads out our asses and stop dicking around against the lesser teams in the league, with our run in we have a chance. We're 1/3 with the bookies to go down, still worth a bet for the hardcore gamblers of the world, until we're say 1/5 the bookies still reckon we have an outside chance.
Guest Col city fan Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 I personally think 38 points would keep any team in the Premier League up this season. So for us, that means getting another 20 points from our remaining 12 games. I sounds easy, it rolls of the tongue and you think no problem! The flip side of the coin, the reality - we've only got 18 from 26 games so far. Now, that look breaks. Looking at the games we have left, can we do it? Chelsea Man City Hull Tottenham West Ham West Brom Swansea Burnley Newcastle Southampton Sunderland QPR I look at that list of teams ..... and I believe, WE CAN DO IT!!!! ..... so should you .... so should the players!! I genuinely believe we could get something out of the final 7 games. Every one of them winnable.
MooseBreath Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 I genuinely believe we could get something out of the final 7 games. Every one of them winnable. If Southampton, who are 5th, is what you consider "winnable", then surely this logic collapses in on itself when you consider we've failed to win about 18 other winnable games already this season. Lots of people thinking Swansea away is an easy point as well. They're different class to us. Likewise Newcastle. Out of those three games one point at home to the geordies would be a respectable return.
Swiss_tony Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 I genuinely believe we could get something out of the final 7 games. Every one of them winnable. you could have said that at the start of the season. how many points did we take off those sides first time we played them? the answer is 2. if you extend it to all those teams, we took just 5 pts from our first meetings. we'll do well to get 5 again.
Guest Col city fan Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 If Southampton, who are 5th, is what you consider "winnable", then surely this logic collapses in on itself when you consider we've failed to win about 18 other winnable games already this season. Lots of people thinking Swansea away is an easy point as well. They're different class to us. Likewise Newcastle. Out of those three games one point at home to the geordies would be a respectable return. We are at home to Southampton, in front of a full house and probably needing a win. They, by then, will probably be around 6th/7th and can get no higher. Yeah, I would see that as a winnable game.
st albans fox Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 We are at home to Southampton, in front of a full house and probably needing a win. They, by then, will probably be around 6th/7th and can get no higher. Yeah, I would see that as a winnable game. as i said on another thread, end of season games are notorious for bottom six sides getting results against those that dont fancy a battle. are we able to do that though ? bit dissapointed that pearson said 'yesterday felt like a defeat'. he has to be more upbeat than that. at least i hope he was in the dressing room.
Guest Col city fan Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 as i said on another thread, end of season games are notorious for bottom six sides getting results against those that dont fancy a battle. are we able to do that though ? bit dissapointed that pearson said 'yesterday felt like a defeat'. he has to be more upbeat than that. at least i hope he was in the dressing room. He didn't look his usual upbeat self yesterday on SKY. I doubt he thinks all is lost though. One thing that has impressed me about this team is they haven't yet looked like giving up. I don't think they will either.
The Doctor Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 There's no chance of 38 points being needed to stay up in this division. The record low is 34 points, and that looks set to be challenged this year. 31 points would have been enough in 2009/10, and I can see it being that again. Looking at it, I'd say we absolutely have to win against Hull, Burnley, QPR That's onto 27 points. Spurs and Newcastle - we've already won those fixtures in the cup this year, I don't see why we can't do it again but perhaps 2 points would be more realistic - that's 29. That leaves 2/3 points from Chelsea, Man City, West Ham, West Brom, Swansea, Southampton, Sunderland If we play to the level we're capable of for the rest of the season, we'll stay up. The problem is that those must win and winnable games are the sort of games where our performances have gone to pot so far this season.
ADK Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 I think we have a good chance against teams who need to win or who have nothing to play for. My biggest concern would be going up against sides like Hull, WBA and Sunderland who will probably be content with a draw and have decent defensive records on top of that. Arguably that was our biggest problem early in the season, we couldn't break defences down and it frustrated us and we conceded silly goals. Again we had the same thing against Palace, Pardew said he was happy with a draw and we couldn't break them down and conceded a soft goal. Chelsea - Lose by 2.Man City - Lose by 1.Hull - DrawTottenham - DrawWest Ham - Win by 1.West Brom - Lose by 1.Swansea - Lose by 1.Burnley - Win by 2.Newcastle - win by 2.Southampton - drawSunderland - lose by 1.QPR - win by 2. =33 pts. I think 33 points is realistic, and I think we will have a superior goal difference to Burnley QPR and Villa, but we are dangerously reliant on neither of the 3 getting more than 11 points from their remaining 12 fixtures. They will have fixtures against teams with nothing to play for too.
Raj Posted 23 February 2015 Posted 23 February 2015 The longer it goes,the more pressure on the players to get points especially at home,they will buckle. They ain't got the mental steel to hold on to keep the points we need. The last 7 games may well be winnable.....but i can also see us completely fooking em up too.....
Thracian Posted 25 February 2015 Posted 25 February 2015 People talk about our "easy" run in but we didn't make it "easy" in the first half of the season and there's no evidence to suggest Pearson's suddenly come up with a magic formula to change that trend. Furthermore almost every time we've had a chance to improve our situation we've blown it. And for several reasons. Some organisational, some relating to the limitations of our team, some down to tactics, some to individual failings, some psychological and relating to confidence and conviction. But most of all we've tumbled down the table through a lack of philosophy and the constant changes made to accommodate too many variations in thinking for a squad that already had enough problems without having to deal with too many tactical adjustments. We needed to focus principally on our own capabilities and getting the best out of them. On pressuring opponents and making sure we had enough effective backing for our principal chance makers and goal getters. Instead I've had the feeling we've rarely been totally focused on imposing ourselves and establishing the relentless pressing game so vital to our survival. Instead the vital components of our team have been too far apart from one another for too much of the time and as we've increased the rusticity of our back line to the point of playing three experienced centre-backs so the chances of close and consistent support throughout the team has diminished even further. A team will only produce its best through moving backwards and forwards as a unit. But we don't. Partly because it's alien to some of the players and partly because we've not signed the players to do it well enough - a major mistake. You'll never score enough goals by having virtually no goals threat from central midfield or from free-kicks and corners. Scoring is not just about creating chances for strikers and watching how they get on but about picking up the second ball, the rebounds, the hurried defensive errors and making the opposition pay. This can only be done by pressing as a unit and getting determined bodies into and around the box. Not just when we're chasing the game but consistently and as a matter of the philosophy I mentioned. Proper backing would have taken some of the pressure off the strikers but, instead, we've too often left them isolated or ill-supported. Related to our run-in I don't see how we're going to change sufficiently. Where are the central midfield goalscorers? Or the goals from other non-striker positions? Where are we going to find accurate and imaginative set-pieces? The opposition for our "easy" run in isn't going to make life easy and when you're desperate for points it will show psychologically. We will never risk a determined attacking philosophy with the margins so tight - having mostly failed to do so thus far and particularly against the teams closest to us. It'll be a dogfight and one we start with a four-point deficit with games running out fast and the necessity for three teams to implode while we develop something considerably more effective than has been the case so far. Of course it's not impossible. But it's unlikely. Because I just don't see the reasons for our demise disappearing. Or any signs that some of them have even been recognised. .
biggs Posted 25 February 2015 Posted 25 February 2015 You'll never score enough goals by having virtually no goals threat from central midfield or from free-kicks and corners. Agree I wonder if we score from corners in practice sessions......prob yes - OG's
Swiss_tony Posted 25 February 2015 Posted 25 February 2015 Agree I wonder if we score from corners in practice sessions......prob yes - OG's probably if schwarzer is in goal.
Benguin Posted 25 February 2015 Posted 25 February 2015 Just did a predictor. Gave us wins over: Hull, Burnley, QPR and Sunderland Gave us Draws against: West Brom, Newcastle, Swansea and West Ham Gave us Defeats to: Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea and Southampton 10 Swansea 38 -11 50 11 Newcastle 38 -16 46 12 C Palace 38 -10 42 13 West Brom 38 -17 36 14 Everton 38 -14 35 15 Leicester 38 -19 34 16 Burnley 38 -23 34 17 Sunderland 38 -24 33 18 Aston Villa 38 -30 31 19 Hull 38 -28 29 20 QPR 38 -35 26
CosbehFox Posted 26 February 2015 Posted 26 February 2015 If Southampton, who are 5th, is what you consider "winnable", then surely this logic collapses in on itself when you consider we've failed to win about 18 other winnable games already this season. Lots of people thinking Swansea away is an easy point as well. They're different class to us. Likewise Newcastle. Out of those three games one point at home to the geordies would be a respectable return. Expect all three are likely to be mid-table with nothing to play for by the time we play them. Southampton - likely to fall out of the European spots on recent form, Swansea - happily mid-table, Newcastle - caretaker manager/happily mid-table. As seen by the Cup games, when the players don't give a flyer it does make a difference.
pazzerfox Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 We only have to finish above Villa, Burnley and QPR...Completely achievable in my opinion...It will all start with a freak win at the Etihad!! COME ON YOU CITY SLICKERS!
Foxhateram Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 I know it is a cliched statement but we have to do this one game at a time. We are four points in the deep with a game in hand at this moment in time. Getting a point at Man City which I just have a great feeling we will could take us to only 3 points behind. We just then need to match the results of teams around us, or better that, and we have a great chance. With 3 points to make up and fixtures against the teams that are around us still to play. We certainly aren't down yet. Stuff overall points. This season is a complete anomaly, 5 teams at the bottom are all absolutely terrible and inconsistent. I think the teams that stay up out of those 5, will stay up with the lowest points total ever. Those saying "Your stupid if you expect us to double our return!" I could turn that back on you and say your stupid for thinking the other teams around us can double their return. We still have a great chance.
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 I think we have too much to do and am mentally preparing for being back in the Championship. We might as well 'go for it' in the final 12 games. We've been too cautious this season. Pearson is stubborn about certain things though and I don't see that changing. I suspect we'll go down with a whimper rather than a bang. Delighted to be proved wrong come May.
Tuna Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 We're down because the manager is too negative and inconsistent with tactics and selection and too set in his ways to change. I'm baffled as to how he can get it wrong almost every game. We'd have half a chance if he just picked his best team and settled upon it. I think even if we had a decent mini run, he'd blow it with a baffling team selection. I mean, going 4-5-1 against Villa was naive in the extreme and a apalling error of judgement. No wins at home against Palace, Sunderland, Burnley and West Brom is just unforgivable.
FOXES-BROWNBOY Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 Hull West Brom Burnley Newcastle Sunderland QPR All must win games
st albans fox Posted 1 March 2015 Posted 1 March 2015 Hull West Brom Burnley Newcastle Sunderland QPR All must win games Really? But we definitely WONT win all those games and if we won only four of those, we would probably stay up because of points we pick up in the other 7 games. Someone posted - '1 game at a time'. I think that's sound advice.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.