SURVIVAL - 20 points in 12 games

[Gerard]

I've always thought that if we go into the Hull game and aren't adrift then we have every chance of staying up.

 

Strangely I'm more interested on the teams around us results than our own. We play Man City away which is game we'll probably lose but you never know.

 

Up until we kick off against Hull then the three teams we are looking to overtake will have these fixtures:

 

QPR  

Arsenal (H)

Tottenham (H)

Crystal Palace (A)

 

Aston Villa

West Brom (H)

 

Burnley

Liverpool (A)

 

I'd happily lose to Man City if those five above fixtures harvest no more than two points

[st albans fox]

I've always thought that if we go into the Hull game and aren't adrift then we have every chance of staying up.

 

Strangely I'm more interested on the teams around us results than our own. We play Man City away which is game we'll probably lose but you never know.

 

Up until we kick off against Hull then the three teams we are looking to overtake will have these fixtures:

 

QPR  

Arsenal (H)

Tottenham (H)

Crystal Palace (A)

 

Aston Villa

West Brom (H)

 

Burnley

Liverpool (A)

 

I'd happily lose to Man City if those five above fixtures harvest no more than two points

this is the point - we are going to be further adrift of safety by the time we get to April. As long as we pick up some points in march (hopefully at least 3), we really have no concerns unless those above us pick up more than 6. IMO, we can go into April 6 points from safety. The remaining 9 games will decide the season, not the next 3.

[Alf Bentley]

We'll never get to 38 but personally I'd be surprised if any of Hull, QPR, Burnley or Villa got to 38 either. In fact 38 is what I'm expecting the likes of Sunderland and West Brom to get.

I am confident 35 will be enough and we've still got probably 10 games we could conceivably win. That said I can't see us getting there - we just give up too many poor goals.

 

Agreed, except I wouldn't see Sunderland getting to 38, either (WBA probably will).

 

I certainly don't see any of Hull, QPR, Burnley or Villa getting to 38 points.

 

34-35 points will almost certainly be enough to stay up this season.

 

Whether we'll get that is quite another matter. Based on this season so far, we won't. "Too good to go down?". Sorry, we may be a better footballing side than most in the bottom half between the two penalty boxes, but if we miss 6 chances for every 1 we score and give away at least 1 goal per match through poor defending.....we're not "too good to go down", we're too poor to stay up!

 

However, the improvements that we need to make are quite specific, not general (Villa, QPR & Hull need to make general improvements).

For me, it might come down to how successful the Kramaric and Huth signings prove to be. If Kramaric significantly improves our goals-to-chances ratio and Huth stops us making as many defensive cock-ups....we could be one of the 6 currently poor teams (LCFC, Burnley, QPR, Hull, Sunderland, Villa) that escapes. I reckon Burnley will grind out enough points, Sunderland are favourites to stay up (but wouldn't bank on it), but QPR, Hull & Villa all look very vulnerable to me (WBA will be clear, IMHO).

 

The game's still on - and Pearson has a hell of an escape record (manager for the Carlisle "Jimmy Glass" miracle; assistant manager for the WBA last day "great escape" (20th->17th); manager who kept Southampton up when LCFC went down to L1 in 2008)!

[sylofox]

We have come out this week end well.

Just wish people would view it game by game instead of we are down.

 

And we have a game in hand yes Chelsea but depends on how it goes as to the side they put out and yes we get at them.

[wurmer]

 

Bored too...

 

Man City A Lose (18)

Hull H Draw (19)

Spurs A Lose (19)

West Ham H Lose (19)

WBA A Win (22)

Swansea H Draw (23)

Burnley A Lose (23)

Chelsea H Lose (23)

Newcastle H Draw (24)

Southampton H Lose (24)

Sunderland A Win (27)

QPR H Draw (28)

 

Relegated 20th place along with QPR and Aston Villa.

 

 

Wish I'd gone to the bookies...

[st albans fox]

Wish I'd gone to the bookies...

Villa won't go down!

The odds on spurs and citeh to beat us won't have made the treble with the hull draw too attractive.

Hull to lose tomorrow and we haven't lost too much from our expected position come the end of march. what chance a result against west ham though? Just never happens does it?

[lcfcsnow]

The biggest obstacle to overcome for me in our last 9 games is our inability to take the lead in a match, highlighted by something like no goals in our last 9 first halfs before today. We simply have to correct this now against the lesser teams. It's all well and good keeping it tight but can we afford that now? Too often this season we just concede anyway leaving a mountain to climb.

[NORFOLK FOX]

SIMPLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH...not rocket science  jebus christ 

[Matt]

Villa won't go down!

The odds on spurs and citeh to beat us won't have made the treble with the hull draw too attractive.

Hull to lose tomorrow and we haven't lost too much from our expected position come the end of march. what chance a result against west ham though? Just never happens does it?

 

Dunno. £10 on that treble would have paid around £66, not too shabby I reckon considering the only result i'd say was tough to call would be the Hull draw.

(Man City @ 1/4, Hull/Leicester Draw @ 23/10, Tottenham @ 6/10)

 

I was all over Tottenham today, thought 6/10 were huge odds really, i'll be fair to City, they had me worried about the bet at one point - Either way i'd have been happy, if Leicester won i'd have been happy but if they lost, well i'm resigned to relegation anyway and I won money.

[st albans fox]

This is a good read going back to feb and through March. Not too many pages to trawl through and some crazy optimists who turned out not to be optimistic enough!

[Haydos]

We'll never get 20pts. That's top-4 form, it's never going to happen.

Can we get 14pts and stay up courtesy of a freakishly low points requirement? Possible, but very improbable.

For me:

Man City Lose

Hull Draw

Spurs Lose

West Ham Draw

West Brom draw

Swansea lose

Burnley lose

Chelsea lose

Newcastle win

Southampton lose

Sunderland lose

QPR win

9pts, 20th.

 

Always fun to have a look back

[bluesbrothers]

Looking back at those predictions, compared with what actually happened, just tells you how insane the turnaround in form has been.

What an incredible past month and a half it has been.

[Hirsty The Blue 94]

Lovely to read people who were being optimistic for being stupid, naive, living in cloud cuco land now have the last and loudest laugh. I didn't think we would turn it around quite as well, but I never gave up on the season completely like a few on here did.

[veezeeblue]

can someone please dig out the relegation 3 predictions threads from the start of the season ?

[MooseBreath]

I think these self-congratulatory thread bumps are probably best left until we're actually safe. Then you can all bore on about how much better you are than everyone else because you didn't lose faith until your little egos are content.

[st albans fox]

I think these self-congratulatory thread bumps are probably best left until we're actually safe. Then you can all bore on about how much better you are than everyone else because you didn't lose faith until your little egos are content.

I didn't bump it for those reasons MB, I thought it showed how ridiculous the change has been. how some had challenged Pearson to do exactly as he has and how some had illustrated that despite it seeming so very dark, there was some light at the end of the tunnel. That April was the opportunity though realistically, very few thought we could turn it around.

[Stadt]

Momentum and confidence can do funny things to a team. Pick up 2 wins on the bounce and we'll likely be within touching distance again. Stranger things have happened in football. 3 wins would all but half the total we require to survive. The problem is falling on the right side of a 1 goal win, which this season we have struggled really badly with doing. Its a very tough ask but not beyond our reach.

[Haydos]

I think these self-congratulatory thread bumps are probably best left until we're actually safe. Then you can all bore on about how much better you are than everyone else because you didn't lose faith until your little egos are content.

[gerrytaggart]

Chelsea 0pts

Man City 0pts

Hull 3pts

Tottenham 3pts

West Ham 1pt

West Brom 3pts

Swansea 1pt

Burnley 3pts

Newcastle 3pts

Southampton 3pts

Sunderland 3pts

QPR 3pts

Easiest 26 points ever.

Not far off....fingers crossed for the next two!!

[st albans fox]

Not far off....fingers crossed for the next two!!

With respect, take out the obvious two losses and you have 4 right and 4 wrong. just seems ridiculous that the most crazily optimistic predictions have been met and yet we are still not safe. (Though we already could be with 35 points still being a possible safety point)

[Steven]

If Pearson persists with "containment football" we stand no chance because our "game of fine margins" will always fall on the side of drawing but then going on to lose the game.

Thank fvck Pearson saw sense. 

[gerrytaggart]

With respect, take out the obvious two losses and you have 4 right and 4 wrong. just seems ridiculous that the most crazily optimistic predictions have been met and yet we are still not safe. (Though we already could be with 35 points still being a possible safety point)

Yes but if you dont totally discount the two other predictions that I got correct that is 6 results that I got spot on...and hopefully 2 more to come.

[FrankieADZ]

just seen a tweet from FourFourTweet, saying Hull have never won a premier league game in May...i hope that continues.

https://twitter.com/FourFourTweet/status/597672262561497089