Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Sunderland have drawn 6 out of their last 9. If we draw this match then it won't be a horrific result for us. That is the point I'm making. A reasonable result would keep us on track to get 2 points per game from our remaining games. A side fighting for the title would consider each draw a "poor result" based on the odds provided by the bookies because they're favourites for each game. In reality it's not as simple as maths. The simple facts are we need to win three matches to improve our chances of winning the title. Our mean expectation would be winning 2.5 games. We have four coin flips that we're about 50% to win and we need to win three of those. If we accept a point at Sunderland as a good result then we have to win three coin flips out of three against West Ham, Swansea & Everton which is a one in eight chance. If we win only two of our remaining games then we're relying on Arsenal or Tottenham to do us a favour and not have a good end of season. Believe me, I'm right and the maths prove it 100%. If we fail to beat Sunderland then it's a bad result for us.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 The simple facts are we need to win three matches to improve our chances of winning the title. Our mean expectation would be winning 2.5 games. We have four coin flips that we're about 50% to win and we need to win three of those. If we accept a point at Sunderland as a good result then we have to win three coin flips out of three against West Ham, Swansea & Everton which is a one in eight chance. If we win only two of our remaining games then we're relying on Arsenal or Tottenham to do us a favour and not have a good end of season. Believe me, I'm right and the maths prove it 100%. If we fail to beat Sunderland then it's a bad result for us. You know we're playing Man United and Chelsea too, right? We're not relying on Arsenal and Spurs not having a "good" end to the season. We're relying on them not having a near perfect end to the season. If Football betting was as easy as you're making out then we'd all be minted. You're not "right" because you're not taking into account multiple factors and you're just going on the price that the bookie reckons will bring him the most money/lose him the least.
MonmoreStef Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 You make a great point Gerrard and although the Swansea game is better than a coin toss for us the other three games you mention sort of equal it out. However, I'd say it's at least a coin toss we pull something out of the other two matches, Utd and Chelsea. I can't see us being much bigger than 3/1 to win each of those matches although pricing them up without knowing the exact importance of the matches to both teams makes it difficult today. Personally I agree that a top of the table side should see a draw at a poor Sunderland side as a chance lost. They are poor. Yes they are fighting for their lives but so were we last season when the Champions elect came to Town and beat us.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 You know we're playing Man United and Chelsea too, right? We're not relying on Arsenal and Spurs not having a "good" end to the season. We're relying on them not having a near perfect end to the season. If Football betting was as easy as you're making out then we'd all be minted. You're not "right" because you're not taking into account multiple factors and you're just going on the price that the bookie reckons will bring him the most money/lose him the least. I'm using the markets pricing and accepting that this is the best way of working out the probabilities. If you know a better way then I'm all ears because if you know better than the markets then you should be making a fortune by hammering them when they're wrong. I've been a professional gambler for 13 years so I know how these mathematical models work that determine the pricing/probabilities. This isn't my opinion when I tell you we need three wins to improve on our current chances, it's a mathematical fact. If we only win twice more our chances will drop from 73% to around 50% to win the title. We need to win three games and if you'd take a point at Sunderland then you should be happy enough to take a point at home to West Ham, Swansea and Everton as we're more or less a 50% chance to win all those games. If you accept that we need to win more than two games to improve our chances of winning the title then where are they coming from if a draw at Sunderland is deemed a good point?
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 You make a great point Gerrard and although the Swansea game is better than a coin toss for us the other three games you mention sort of equal it out. However, I'd say it's at least a coin toss we pull something out of the other two matches, Utd and Chelsea. I can't see us being much bigger than 3/1 to win each of those matches although pricing them up without knowing the exact importance of the matches to both teams makes it difficult today. Personally I agree that a top of the table side should see a draw at a poor Sunderland side as a chance lost. They are poor. Yes they are fighting for their lives but so were we last season when the Champions elect came to Town and beat us. We could say we have five coin tosses if we dutch ManUtd and Chelsea as one coin toss as we'll be about 25% to win those matches. Therefore we have five coin tosses and we need to win three of them. Some people are happy to "lose" the first coin toss and have to win three from four. The best way of looking at it is will Tottenham and arsenal fans be mildly disappointed about us getting a point away at Sunderland or will they be ecstatic? It's a zero sum game so all three parties can't be happy if we get a draw.
MonmoreStef Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 The London clubs will see us drawing as a great result for themselves without a doubt. Look how happy we were with Liverpool holding Spurs.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I'm using the markets pricing and accepting that this is the best way of working out the probabilities. If you know a better way then I'm all ears because if you know better than the markets then you should be making a fortune by hammering them when they're wrong. I've been a professional gambler for 13 years so I know how these mathematical models work that determine the pricing/probabilities. This isn't my opinion when I tell you we need three wins to improve on our current chances, it's a mathematical fact. If we only win twice more our chances will drop from 73% to around 50% to win the title. We need to win three games and if you'd take a point at Sunderland then you should be happy enough to take a point at home to West Ham, Swansea and Everton as we're more or less a 50% chance to win all those games. If you accept that we need to win more than two games to improve our chances of winning the title then where are they coming from if a draw at Sunderland is deemed a good point? Jesus this is like talking to a brick wall. Personally, if we draw this one and win our 3 home games then the title is ours and that's without looking at United or Chelsea who I fancy us to get results against. If we win this one and win our 3 home games then the title is ours regardless. You're talking as if odds are facts. Why should I accept a point at home if I accept a point away at Sunderland? The bookies odds are there to ensure he either makes the most amount or loses the least amount of money. Surely if you're a professional gambler you realise that? I wouldn't take a point at home against those sides because I think we're more than capable of beating them and I would take a point away because, like I said, I think we're more than capable of winning our home games. A point is reasonable, a loss is poor and a win is fabulous. We're in that position of moderate comfort because we're 7 points clear. We can afford to play our cards rather than go gung ho away from home and risk losing like Spurs and Arsenal have to. If we draw and win our three home games then I'd be utterly astounded if we're not champions. The London clubs will see us drawing as a great result for themselves without a doubt. Look how happy we were with Liverpool holding Spurs. Absolutely. But Spurs need us to lose games, draws aren't really good enough for them.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 The best way of looking at it is will Tottenham and arsenal fans be mildly disappointed about us getting a point away at Sunderland or will they be ecstatic? It's a zero sum game so all three parties can't be happy if we get a draw. They'll be pleased, but they'd wish that we'd lost. You seem to be forgetting that we've got such a commanding lead at the moment. Losing a small chunk of it won't be overly pleasant. But we're safe in the knowledge that we're the best home team in the league and we have 3 games against sides we've beaten already this season.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Jesus this is like talking to a brick wall. Personally, if we draw this one and win our 3 home games then the title is ours and that's without looking at United or Chelsea who I fancy us to get results against. If we win this one and win our 3 home games then the title is ours regardless. You're talking as if odds are facts. Why should I accept a point at home if I accept a point away at Sunderland? The bookies odds are there to ensure he either makes the most amount or loses the least amount of money. Surely if you're a professional gambler you realise that? I wouldn't take a point at home against those sides because I think we're more than capable of beating them and I would take a point away because, like I said, I think we're more than capable of winning our home games. A point is reasonable, a loss is poor and a win is fabulous. We're in that position of moderate comfort because we're 7 points clear. We can afford to play our cards rather than go gung ho away from home and risk losing like Spurs and Arsenal have to. If we draw and win our three home games then I'd be utterly astounded if we're not champions. Absolutely. But Spurs need us to lose games, draws aren't really good enough for them. The irony of you comparing me to a brick wall. I'm talking mathematical facts, you're wrong, I'm right, no debate. You're also putting far, far too much value on a draw, they'll be more than happy to see us keep drawing games. 38 draws in a season will see you relegated half the time, that's how valuable draws are.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 They'll be pleased, but they'd wish that we'd lost. You seem to be forgetting that we've got such a commanding lead at the moment. Losing a small chunk of it won't be overly pleasant. But we're safe in the knowledge that we're the best home team in the league and we have 3 games against sides we've beaten already this season. I'd like you to tell me what percentage chance you think we have of winning each individual game for the rest of the season. I will promise you that they'll either be ridiculous or I'll prove you wrong mathematically.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 The irony of you comparing me to a brick wall. I'm talking mathematical facts, you're wrong, I'm right, no debate. You're also putting far, far too much value on a draw, they'll be more than happy to see us keep drawing games. 38 draws in a season will see you relegated half the time, that's how valuable draws are. Draw your away games and win your home games and you win the league. No other side is averaging 2+ points per game. You can make it sound like the end of the world all you like but it won't be. I'm not suggesting I'd rip your hands off for a draw but you won't catch me crying about it if we do. "I'm right you're wrong" Give over you child.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I'd like you to tell me what percentage chance you think we have of winning each individual game for the rest of the season. I will promise you that they'll either be ridiculous or I'll prove you wrong mathematically. You'll mathematically prove my guessing to be wrong? lol This'll be a laugh. Pray tell, what do you think a bookmaker is doing when he prices up?
Thracian Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 For all that they have a game in hand on Norwich, Sunderland can't afford to keep drawing, they have to either risk attacking or rely on something one-off like a set-piece. Denying them set-pieces will be important and if that serves to negate that particular pathway to goal then there ought to be opportunities for us if Sunderland are forced to commit numbers to attack. It's made for our natural counter-attacking game. And another aspect to consider for Allardyce is that very few teams stop us scoring. So long as we don't think ourselves out of being quietly confident - due to the pressures of the Premiership winning post coming into sight - I really see no reason why we shouldn't be 100% committed to winning and perhaps even winning well if we're calm, committed and ruthlessly fast on the counter. But, as always, we need to make it happen rather than allowing the opposition to dictate terms. I see no merit in even thinking of a draw.... Contain and destroy again ... it's second nature to us.
Guest LCFC_World Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 There is no maths about this, 4 wins garauntees it 3 will probably be enough. Just go with it.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Draw your away games and win your home games and you win the league. No other side is averaging 2+ points per game. You can make it sound like the end of the world all you like but it won't be. I'm not suggesting I'd rip your hands off for a draw but you won't catch me crying about it if we do. "I'm right you're wrong" <laugh> Give over you child. I'm going to give up on you because you're either too stupid to accept you're wrong or just too stubborn to accept you're wrong. It's a zero sum game, if Tottenham & Arsenal think us getting a point is a great result for them then by definition it's a bad result for us. We can't all believe it's a good result for us. It's like playing three card brag with two of your mates and you all starting with £100 each. In what is another example of a zero sum game if someone wins then someone has to lose. All three of you can't have won.
Captain... Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Jesus this is like talking to a brick wall. Then stop bloody talking to it then, it is very boring. You have your opinion, Gerard has his, there is a difference and neither of you are going to convince the other so let it go. BTW you're both wrong
fuchsntf Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 We could say we have five coin tosses if we dutch ManUtd and Chelsea as one coin toss as we'll be about 25% to win those matches. Therefore we have five coin tosses and we need to win three of them. Some people are happy to "lose" the first coin toss and have to win three from four. The best way of looking at it is will Tottenham and arsenal fans be mildly disappointed about us getting a point away at Sunderland or will they be ecstatic? It's a zero sum game so all three parties can't be happy if we get a draw. What happens when we win the next 3 games, and Arsenal drop 5pts and Spurs 4pts. !!
Jack1993 Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I'm going to give up on you because you're either too stupid to accept you're wrong or just too stubborn to accept you're wrong. It's a zero sum game, if Tottenham & Arsenal think us getting a point is a great result for them then by definition it's a bad result for us. We can't all believe it's a good result for us. It's like playing three card brag with two of your mates and you all starting with £100 each. In what is another example of a zero sum game if someone wins then someone has to lose. All three of you can't have won. A draw being a good result is absolutely subjective. Everybody on here would agree that gaining 3 points is better than gaining 1 point, however the people disagreeing with your maths are saying that "in the situation that we're currently in, one point from this game isn't necessarily a bad result" and they are correct, a good example would be; Leicester drawing, Arsenal losing and Spurs losing, this would leave us 8 points clear with 15 points to play for, Now it doesn't take an expert to work out that 8 clear with 15 up for grabs is a BETTER position to be in than 7 clear with 18 up for grabs, this would make our percentage chance of winning the league higher thus rendering our draw a GOOD result. To reiterate, we all agree that 3 points would be better than 1 point, this maths is unquestionable but that doesn't mean that 1 point is always a bad result, they are separate situations. Your maths could only be 100% correct if it proved that a draw would be a bad result for us in every single situation possible, I've just given you a situation where a draw would be advantageous.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 A draw being a good result is absolutely subjective. Everybody on here would agree that gaining 3 points is better than gaining 1 point, however the people disagreeing with your maths are saying that "in the situation that we're currently in, one point from this game isn't necessarily a bad result" and they are correct, a good example would be; Leicester drawing, Arsenal losing and Spurs losing, this would leave us 8 points clear with 15 points to play for, Now it doesn't take an expert to work out that 8 clear with 15 up for grabs is a BETTER position to be in than 7 clear with 18 up for grabs, this would make our percentage chance of winning the league higher thus rendering our draw a GOOD result. To reiterate, we all agree that 3 points would be better than 1 point, this maths is unquestionable but that doesn't mean that 1 point is always a bad result, they are separate situations. Your maths could only be 100% correct if it proved that a draw would be a bad result for us in every single situation possible, I've just given you a situation where a draw would be advantageous. But I'm talking about our result independently of the Arsenal or Tottenham games. I'll take a loss now if Arsenal and Spurs lose as we'll be in a better position to win the title than what we are now. If we draw and either of them win then we'll be in a worse position.
Jack1993 Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 But I'm talking about our result independently of the Arsenal or Tottenham games. I'll take a loss now if Arsenal and Spurs lose as we'll be in a better position to win the title than what we are now. If we draw and either of them win then we'll be in a worse position. Exactly, so a draw is subjective, you can't talk about the mathematics of a result independently when our result is absolutely not an independent factor when working out our probability of winning the league. You're trying to have it both ways and then berating other people for being "too stupid" when what they are saying is absolutely correct. Your maths is wrong, a draw is not always a bad result which is what you started out by saying.
Jack1993 Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Exactly, so a draw is subjective, you can't talk about the mathematics of a result independently when our result is absolutely not an independent factor when working out our probability of winning the league. You're trying to have it both ways and then berating other people for being "too stupid" when what they are saying is absolutely correct. Your maths is wrong, a draw is not always a bad result which is what you started out by saying. Also to quote your earlier post "If we draw and just one of the North London clubs win their match then our chances of winning the title will be worse than they are today and therefore a draw will be a less than average result for us. It's really quite simple maths if you're of average intelligence." You weren't talking about our result independently, you were talking about other results too, you can't have it both ways.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Exactly, so a draw is subjective, you can't talk about the mathematics of a result independently when our result is absolutely not an independent factor when working out our probability of winning the league. You're trying to have it both ways and then berating other people for being "too stupid" when what they are saying is absolutely correct. Your maths is wrong, a draw is not always a bad result which is what you started out by saying. He's been on his calculator all day for nothing?!
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