Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Huge game, can't afford to lose this. Too many city fans/general football stakeholders thinking we've already won it. Dangerous game. Can't afford not to win it more like it. We need three more wins from these four fixtures: Sunderland (a) West Ham (h) Swansea (h) Everton (h) And if we fall short of three wins from that group then we need to make them up from this group: Man Utd (a) Chelsea (a) If we don't get at least three wins then our destiny is in Arsenal or Tottenham's hands and we'll be relying on them to mess it up. Draws aren't great for us we need to find at least three wins from the last six games and the Sunderland match is as good an opportunity for a win that we're likely to get.
Oxfordfox83 Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I really hope with all the absolute crap that's been thrown around this week (about a ref who got each decision spot on!) that the ref has a good game. Could see us conceding to a soft penalty and scrapping out a draw or narrow defeat. Followed by all the pundits giving it "remember last week-these things even themselves out. Let's see if Leicester can stand the pressure now." Followed by Spurs getting a kicking at United...
sylofox Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Can't afford not to win it more like it. We need three more wins from these four fixtures: Sunderland (a) West Ham (h) Swansea (h) Everton (h) And if we fall short of three wins from that group then we need to make them up from this group: Man Utd (a) Chelsea (a) If we don't get at least three wins then our destiny is in Arsenal or Tottenham's hands and we'll be relying on them to mess it up. Draws aren't great for us we need to find at least three wins from the last six games and the Sunderland match is as good an opportunity for a win that we're likely to get. If we get 3 wins only we still need spurs to mess it up. We need 4 wins so we can't be caught. Unless spurs lose to Manu.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 If we get 3 wins only we still need spurs to mess it up. We need 4 wins so we can't be caught. Unless spurs lose to Manu. I'm fully aware what we need to do as I'm living and breathing the possibilities. Four wins is the obvious target as it's completely in our hands. Three wins and a draw forces Arsenal or Tottenham to win all their matches to finish ahead of us. Anything less than three wins opens the door for us to be caught as we try and limp to the finishing line. This is why it annoys me that people are far too passive thinking a point away at Sunderland is a decent result, they have got their maths wrong if they believe that.
Jazzy_Jeff Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Whilst this is a game we should be hoping to win, if Spurs and Arsenal don't win a draw wouldn't be the end of the world. Having said that I think we'll win. 1-0 again. For sh1ts and gigs.
Captain... Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 We need to get 12 points from our remaining six games so that's all we should concentrate on, not Arsenal or Spurs run in. Let's just assume they'll both win every game. All we should be concentrating on is Sunderland, not Spurs or Arsenal, or the title, or the West ham or anything else, just Sunderland. We concentrate on them and we will be fine. I feel if we score we win, and I have no doubt we will score at least once. 5/4 seems a great price to be honest. A lot of arguments on here wether the game is 'easy' or not... Seems a bot pointless. We've won away at Man City, West Ham, Spurs and were very unlucky at Arsenal. We have the best away record in the division. Should we be fearing 5th placed Man United or 10th placed Chelsea? Definitely not. 18th placed Sunderland? Hell no! We get annoyed on here when people underestimate us continuously but we do it ourselves each week. On paper, you'd have this down as an away win. I know they'll be fighting, but so will we and we don't seem to come out second best in many fights. Defoe is dangerous and can finish but Wes and Huth have been awesome all season, and rarely get sucked out of position. We won't give him the space he gets against other sides due to the way we set up defensively. We won't leave space in behind because of his pace and our lack of (defensively), and if Defoe decides to drop deep Kante and Drinkwater will be there... PVA loves to get forward but can be got at defensively. Plus, we don't mind teams having the ball out wide and putting crosses into the box, especially against Sunderland who don't seem to have much of an aerial threat up top. Sunderland will have to be at their best to get anything from us and even then we'd have to be below par. 0-2 Vardy, Mahrez. Good point about PVA, there will be space there to attack, we should win this game, but we can't go in at any less than 100% focus, they will be fighting for survival and will not give us an easy ride. They will try and keep it tight first half and pinch a goal from a set-piece, if we score first we will hopefully force them out of their shells and open the game up. It would be nice for this to have a relaxing last 10 minutes, and not another nerve shredding 1-0
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Can't afford not to win it more like it. We can afford to not win. We need 12 points out of 6 games as things stand. If we needed 18 points from 6 games then I could see your point but we can afford to draw this game, it would just be preferable not to.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 We can afford to not win. We need 12 points out of 6 games as things stand. If we needed 18 points from 6 games then I could see your point but we can afford to draw this game, it would just be preferable not to. Currently our perceived chances of winning the title are nearly 73% If we win 3 more games it will be >73% If we win 2 more games it will be <73% Therefore to improve our chances from this position we'll need to win three matches. The Manchester United and Chelsea away games are a lot more difficult to win than our other four fixtures. So we should target our three victories from the other four games and accept Man Utd and Chelsea are last chance saloon games if we mess up. By accepting a point at Sunderland as an acceptable result it's giving us no leeway and we're forced to win our remaining three home games to get back on track. I've said before this is a zero sum game, if Arsenal and Tottenham would be delighted for us to get a draw away at Sunderland then by definition of "zero sum game" it's a bad result for us.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Currently our perceived chances of winning the title are nearly 73% If we win 3 more games it will be >73% If we win 2 more games it will be <73% Therefore to improve our chances from this position we'll need to win three matches. The Manchester United and Chelsea away games are a lot more difficult to win than our other four fixtures. So we should target our three victories from the other four games and accept Man Utd and Chelsea are last chance saloon games if we mess up. By accepting a point at Sunderland as an acceptable result it's giving us no leeway and we're forced to win our remaining three home games to get back on track. I've said before this is a zero sum game, if Arsenal and Tottenham would be delighted for us to get a draw away at Sunderland then by definition of "zero sum game" it's a bad result for us. You're getting yourself into such a muddle. This can't be a "must win" game purely because we need 12 points from a possible 18 to win the league. We can still achieve 12 points from a possible 15. if we draw our 3 away games and win our 3 home games then we've won the league. It would obviously be preferable to do it sooner.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 You're getting yourself into such a muddle. This can't be a "must win" game purely because we need 12 points from a possible 18 to win the league. We can still achieve 12 points from a possible 15. if we draw our 3 away games and win our 3 home games then we've won the league. It would obviously be preferable to do it sooner. I'm not getting myself into a muddle at all, I have 100% clarity on what we need to do to improve our chances of winning the title. Of course if we win our home games and draw our away games that will be enough, that goes without saying, my eight year old could tell me that. We will go into four of our remaining six games with an approximate 50% chance of winning them. The other two we will be about 20-25% chance of winning. By accepting a draw as a decent result against Sunderland then that forces us to win all three of our other 50% games. Our games won expectation for the rest of the season is 2.5 games. If we don't beat Sunderland our win expectation drops to 2 games for the rest of the season and two more wins will give us about a 50% chance of winning the league. If we don't win this weekend and just one of the North London clubs do then we'll be less than 73% to win the title therefore it's a bad weekend for us, it's really not that difficult to understand.
Bob Weasel Fox Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Leicester win Sunderland will desperate for at least a point and this really will be a tough game let's not try to forget that We can sneak a win though (I desperately hope anyway) Up the Foxes
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I'm not getting myself into a muddle at all, I have 100% clarity on what we need to do to improve our chances of winning the title. Of course if we win our home games and draw our away games that will be enough, that goes without saying, my eight year old could tell me that. We will go into four of our remaining six games with an approximate 50% chance of winning them. The other two we will be about 20-25% chance of winning. By accepting a draw as a decent result against Sunderland then that forces us to win all three of our other 50% games. Our games won expectation for the rest of the season is 2.5 games. If we don't beat Sunderland our win expectation drops to 2 games for the rest of the season and two more wins will give us about a 50% chance of winning the league. If we don't win this weekend and just one of the North London clubs do then we'll be less than 73% to win the title therefore it's a bad weekend for us, it's really not that difficult to understand. You absolutely are getting into a muddle We don't specifically need to win this game to win the title. It would be hugely preferable, but a draw keeps us on track. No idea how you've worked out this 73% stuff mind.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 You absolutely are getting into a muddle We don't specifically need to win this game to win the title. It would be hugely preferable, but a draw keeps us on track. No idea how you've worked out this 73% stuff mind. Of course we don't need to win, we could lose and still win the title, that goes without saying. Our mid point price on Betfair is 1.375 which equates to a perceived 72.725% chance of winning the title. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148 If we draw and just one of the North London clubs win their match then our chances of winning the title will be worse than they are today and therefore a draw will be a less than average result for us. It's really quite simple maths if you're of average intelligence.
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Of course we don't need to win, we could lose and still win the title, that goes without saying. Our mid point price on Betfair is 1.375 which equates to a perceived 72.725% chance of winning the title. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148 If we draw and just one of the North London clubs win their match then our chances of winning the title will be worse than they are today and therefore a draw will be a less than average result for us. It's really quite simple maths if you're of average intelligence. Absolutely. But you're going on about it like we're going to drop to about 30%. I don't think the odds will change much. People realise that this is a tricky fixture.
kingcarr21 Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 It would also take someone of average intelligence to know that this isn't a must win game or a 'cant afford not to win' scenario. You are getting yourself worked up for no reason. If we don't beat Sunderland ok its not great but we carry on. Everyone is getting themselves worked up over getting the job done in the next 3 games. We've already been to tough away games and won no reason why we cant do that in the final 2 away matches and Everton are doggo under Martinez. Take your professional gambler hat off, take a deep breath and relax.
Gerard Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Absolutely. But you're going on about it like we're going to drop to about 30%. I don't think the odds will change much. People realise that this is a tricky fixture. No but our perceived chance will drop about 10% which is significant. No one is saying it's not a tricky fixture but we will have underperformed if we don't win. Sunderland have won 6 games out of 31 and people are saying as long as we aren't their 7th win from 32 this season it's a decent result for us. It's just plain wrong and I've shown it as simply as I can with the maths. Our point expectation for this match is 1.6pts. Therefore if we win we are 1.4pts above expectation = great result If we draw we are 0.6pts under expectation = poor result
sdb Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Remaining fixtures do not look easy really. Only Swansea and possibly Chelsea won't have lots to play for, but that won't be easy given their form under Hiddink (and overall quality anyway). A win here would be huge, especially with Spurs kicking off straight afterwards. I'd be pretty sure they'll win if we don't. It'd be a huge boost for them.
Guest LCFC_World Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 I still can't bring myself to believe that we can win the league, this is the most crazy thing to ever happen to our club and maybe even in sport. I just don't want to get ahead if myself.. BUT if we win this then I will truly believe it. I want this more than anything...
AKCJ Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 No but our perceived chance will drop about 10% which is significant. No one is saying it's not a tricky fixture but we will have underperformed if we don't win. Sunderland have won 6 games out of 31 and people are saying as long as we aren't their 7th win from 32 this season it's a decent result for us. It's just plain wrong and I've shown it as simply as I can with the maths. Our point expectation for this match is 1.6pts. Therefore if we win we are 1.4pts above expectation = great result If we draw we are 0.6pts under expectation = poor result Sunderland have drawn 6 out of their last 9. If we draw this match then it won't be a horrific result for us. That is the point I'm making. A reasonable result would keep us on track to get 2 points per game from our remaining games. A side fighting for the title would consider each draw a "poor result" based on the odds provided by the bookies because they're favourites for each game. In reality it's not as simple as maths.
Jimbo Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 Remaining fixtures do not look easy really. Only Swansea and possibly Chelsea won't have lots to play for, but that won't be easy given their form under Hiddink (and overall quality anyway). A win here would be huge, especially with Spurs kicking off straight afterwards. I'd be pretty sure they'll win if we don't. It'd be a huge boost for them. A win this weekend wouldn't settle things in the title race but it would be massive. Psychologically a 10 point lead over spurs who will just be about to kick off will be huge Like you say West Ham and United will both be looking at 4th spot. The FA cup semi finals could have an impact on our games. If West Ham get through the replay then we play them a week before the semi and just 4 days after the replay. Then if Everton beat them they will hopefully have one eye on the Final, which will be all they have to play for this season.
sdb Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 A win this weekend wouldn't settle things in the title race but it would be massive. Psychologically a 10 point lead over spurs who will just be about to kick off will be huge Like you say West Ham and United will both be looking at 4th spot. The FA cup semi finals could have an impact on our games. If West Ham get through the replay then we play them a week before the semi and just 4 days after the replay. Then if Everton beat them they will hopefully have one eye on the Final, which will be all they have to play for this season. Some extra games to get stressed about then!!! I starting to just hope my ticker is still going by mid-May.
LukeyZade Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 shitting my pants end of. apart from my lil daughter this is the best thing to happen 4 me. what an emotional ending n its not over yet
Foxxed Posted 7 April 2016 Posted 7 April 2016 We really want to win this, regardless of whether it's a must-win under some hyperthetical. I wouldn't put it past Sunderland to be the most difficult opponents we've had for a while: on the cusp of relegation in a financially important season and with good form in escaping relegation and without a loss in a while. That said, based on our current form and successful transition to a once shakey plan b, and with pretty much all our players on form, we're looking very strong. Since some players looked tired--jet lagged I guess--I wonder if Ranieri will rotate anyone.
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.