General Election, June 8th

[Nick]

[Nick]

[Guest MattP]

Whisper it quietly but the bookmakers only have the Tories at 3/1 to win the seat of Westmorland (Tim Farron), only a 25% chance but that's massive when you think it was a very safe seat two years ago. That would be absolutely hilarious and he's starting to struggle a bit now under the spotlight of these homophobia allegations, he was questioned again today about it at an event and it never looks good.

 

 

[Strokes]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Whisper it quietly but the bookmakers only have the Tories at 3/1 to win the seat of Westmorland (Tim Farron), only a 25% chance but that's massive when you think it was a very safe seat two years ago. That would be absolutely hilarious and he's starting to struggle a bit now under the spotlight of these homophobia allegations, he was questioned again today about it at an event and it never looks good.

 

 

I think focus on him being a bible basher is enough to for him to lose appeal. The novelty is wearing off Tim! 

[Benguin]

2 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Fvcking Webbo getting riled at memes

They are a little juvenile in political debate. Essentially saying "I do not have an opinion, or am not intellectually capable of articulating a response, so I'll just post a silly picture, that'll show 'em."

[Mark_w]

3 minutes ago, Benguin said:

They are a little juvenile in political debate. Essentially saying "I do not have an opinion, or am not intellectually capable of articulating a response, so I'll just post a silly picture, that'll show 'em."

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Benguin said:

They are a little juvenile in political debate. Essentially saying "I do not have an opinion, or am not intellectually capable of articulating a response, so I'll just post a silly picture, that'll show 'em."

And yet, the group most likely to use memes within political debate scored at least two spectacular victories in 2016.

 

Who knew?

[Benguin]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And yet, the group most likely to use memes within political debate scored at least two spectacular victories in 2016.

 

Who knew?

Not that I wish to argue that point because it bares no relevance to my post but where on Earth did you find a study on correlation between meme users and their political compasses?

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Not that I wish to argue that point because it bares no relevance to my post but where on Earth did you find a study on correlation between meme users and their political compasses?

The channer/alt right squad (and yes, there is a vast amount of crossover) are utterly infamous for using memes in any kind of debate, political or otherwise. I thought that was common knowledge.

 

Of course, this is a clear example of correlation not equalling causation (they ere definitely not the only group to support Brexit/Trump), but I thought it pertinent to bring up that even though the users of such memes can be as juvenile as you say, such juveniles can easily end up affecting the balance of power in their own way. Which, I think, is quite a commentary on the political sphere today.

[Benguin]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

The channer/alt right squad (and yes, there is a vast amount of crossover) are utterly infamous for using memes in any kind of debate, political or otherwise. I thought that was common knowledge.

 

Of course, this is a clear example of correlation not equalling causation (they ere definitely not the only group to support Brexit/Trump), but I thought it pertinent to bring up that even though the users of such memes can be as juvenile as you say, such juveniles can easily end up affecting the balance of power in their own way. Which, I think, is quite a commentary on the political sphere today.

Okay we're going there. Giving that meme's are overwhelmingly used by under 30's and under 30's overwhelmingly voted for Hilary/Remain, it follows logically that meme users are more common amongst the "left."

 

But this is nonsense, my point was and remains that using meme's is hardly a good argument so far as political discourse is concerned no matter who is using it.  

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Okay we're going there. Giving that meme's are overwhelmingly used by under 30's and under 30's overwhelmingly voted for Hilary/Remain, it follows logically that meme users are more common amongst the "left."

 

But this is nonsense, my point was and remains that using meme's is hardly a good argument so far as political discourse is concerned no matter who is using it.  

I would posit that not all under 30s use memes and as such proportionally the political compass of such users is a lot more balanced than you think (or even in the other direction), but that is speculative.

 

I think you're right regarding use of political memes, but my point is that while they may not be a good argument they are not really counter productive in terms of desired results from their generators, I think. As such they play a part in the debate.

[Benguin]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

I would posit that not all under 30s use memes and as such proportionally the political compass of such users is a lot more balanced than you think (or even in the other direction), but that is speculative.

 

I think you're right regarding use of political memes, but my point is that while they may not be a good argument they are not really counter productive in terms of desired results from their generators, I think. As such they play a part in the debate.

Not really, I expect you'd easily find some correlation, in one of these nonsense studies, showing that meme users are less likely to vote as they have pits to fester in.

 

I don't doubt that not all under 30's use memes that's not what I said, I said meme users are almost all under 30.

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Not really, I expect you'd easily find some correlation, in one of these nonsense studies, showing that meme users are less likely to vote as they have pits to fester in.

 

I don't doubt that not all under 30's use memes that's not what I said, I said meme users are almost all under 30.

Were this a while back I'd agree with that, but IMO the biggest such festering pit has gotten very motivated and very politically active of late. They have their own wide ranging news website which has reached many more people, and until recently they had a key presence in the upper echelons of the White House. Though it's independent from their use of memes and the attitude displayed in using them, they've gotten a message displaying the same juvenile attitude right from conception to political victory (not all their own effort, of course, but a good sized part in the triumph). As such, I wouldn't discount their efforts.

 

And yes, I should have been clearer in my last; I totally agree that under 30s use memes the most, I just think that the balance of under 30s who use them is at least close to being in favour of the alt right, because of the sheer amount they seem to churn out. I, of course, have no empirical data to back that up, it's just a hunch based on my own anecdotal evidence.

[The Doctor]

4 hours ago, Benguin said:

Okay we're going there. Giving that meme's are overwhelmingly used by under 30's and under 30's overwhelmingly voted for Hilary/Remain, it follows logically that meme users are more common amongst the "left."

 

But this is nonsense, my point was and remains that using meme's is hardly a good argument so far as political discourse is concerned no matter who is using it.  

You might claim that it follows logically, but that's only because your sampling method is flawed, giving ones like the shut up and take my money one and ones made from things like Clinton falling over equal prominence. When you consider political memes - 4chan, r/thedonald and the like had a far higher output than any left wing support bases for remain (which is more of a centrist position anyway, the hard left has their own reasons for distrusting the eu) or for Clinton.

 

the people claiming they meme'd trump into office are giving themselves far too much credit, but denying that those who tried to turn politics into a series of "funny" pictures got the results they were gunning for makes no sense.

[Innovindil]

Political debate became meme debate. 

 

Now we're getting somewhere. 

[davieG]

Define a meme please as they just look like made up pictures trying to be funny but fail in most cases or go completely over my old head?

[Guest MattP]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Were this a while back I'd agree with that, but IMO the biggest such festering pit has gotten very motivated and very politically active of late.

 

And yes, I should have been clearer in my last; I totally agree that under 30s use memes the most, I just think that the balance of under 30s who use them is at least close to being in favour of the alt right.

I thought we wanted to see young people getting politically active and engaged? 

 

Or do the people saying this really mean they want young people getting active and engaged in just left-wing politics? 

[Guest MattP]

The Welsh Labour Group is well worth a read on Facebook.

 

Total carnage after those polls yesterday, people saying the Welsh Labour party has been destroyed by middle class Londoners and that if Corbyn and his mob ever come into Cardiff they deserve a good kicking. 

 

One bloke even said Corbyn has done more to damage Wales than Thatcher  (although he did retract)

 

It's almost a certainly that the Conservative will have more seats than Labour in England, Wales and Scotland in six weeks time, clearly no longer a party of just middle England. 

[Alf Bentley]

56 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's almost a certainly that the Conservative will have more seats than Labour in England, Wales and Scotland in six weeks time, clearly no longer a party of just middle England. 

 

Assuming that actual votes are in line with polls (which seems likely, at this stage), it's interesting to speculate where British politics might be in 5 years time.

 

If Labour gets decimated as badly as the polls are suggesting, it will surely take them several years to regroup, if they do at all. There might even be some sort of centre-left realignment, though it's hard to see how that would come about.

 

In the meantime, the Tories would have absolute power and absolute responsibility....in some of the most difficult political circumstances imaginable.

Obviously, some believe that Brexit can rapidly be successful, but even many Brexiteers would expect success to take many, long turbulent years.

What will the reaction be if an all-powerful Tory Government struggles to do a good Brexit deal and/or serious economic problems arise and/or taxes have to rise or public services suffer even more drastic cuts?

 

If they win, as expected, the Tories will have 5 years, but 2 of those years will be taken up by negotiations, probably followed by at least a couple more years of transition arrangements and negotiations over trade deals.

If times are difficult for 5 years or more, will the public have the patience and positivity about a better Britain post-Brexit, or will the blame game start? If the blame game gets serious, who'll face all the hostility? The Tory Govt? The EU? Foreigners/scapegoats?

 

Interesting times ahead.....

[Foxxed]

It's fraud if money was used to gain votes.

 

Money was used for extra campaigning. That gains votes.

 

And those gained votes were in the marginal south west Tory-Lib seats.

 

Those were the marginal that won the Tories the election.

 

It's breaking campaign financing rules to win the south west Tory-Lib marginal seats that created her majority.

 

She's rushing to ask people to vote again.

 

Vote again before voters realise her majority, her power and everything the Tories have done rests on the wrongful use of money to gain those marginals.

[Webbo]

22 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

It's fraud if money was used to gain votes.

 

Money was used for extra campaigning. That gains votes.

 

And those gained votes were in the marginal south west Tory-Lib seats.

 

Those were the marginal that won the Tories the election.

 

It's breaking campaign financing rules to win the south west Tory-Lib marginal seats that created her majority.

 

She's rushing to ask people to vote again.

 

Vote again before voters realise her majority, her power and everything the Tories have done rests on the wrongful use of money to gain those marginals.

It's no secret, It's been widely covered in the press.  It doesn't seem to be making much impact in the polls.

 

The other parties aren't making much of this, probably because they know they're likely to be caught as well.

[Guest MattP]

23 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Assuming that actual votes are in line with polls (which seems likely, at this stage), it's interesting to speculate where British politics might be in 5 years time.

 

If Labour gets decimated as badly as the polls are suggesting, it will surely take them several years to regroup, if they do at all. There might even be some sort of centre-left realignment, though it's hard to see how that would come about.

 

In the meantime, the Tories would have absolute power and absolute responsibility....in some of the most difficult political circumstances imaginable.

Obviously, some believe that Brexit can rapidly be successful, but even many Brexiteers would expect success to take many, long turbulent years.

What will the reaction be if an all-powerful Tory Government struggles to do a good Brexit deal and/or serious economic problems arise and/or taxes have to rise or public services suffer even more drastic cuts?

 

If they win, as expected, the Tories will have 5 years, but 2 of those years will be taken up by negotiations, probably followed by at least a couple more years of transition arrangements and negotiations over trade deals.

If times are difficult for 5 years or more, will the public have the patience and positivity about a better Britain post-Brexit, or will the blame game start? If the blame game gets serious, who'll face all the hostility? The Tory Govt? The EU? Foreigners/scapegoats?

 

Interesting times ahead.....

Last post, must work!!

 

It's almost impossible to know how public opinion would react to a bad deal, if the Brexit team have cocked it up it could leave to a the current government losing a lot of support, if it's seen as a "punishment beating" I could see attitudes towards the EU hardening and people getting behind May, I wouldn't like to predict how it would go, not only how we go but we also need to keep an eye on what is happening in Europe, the success of the continent in fighting terrorism, dealing with the migrant crisis and the Eurozone will also be big factors in how we react over here.

 

The resurgance of Labour all depends on the battle for the party after, it does appear Corbyn wil try to cling on. Him and McCluskey etc haven't gone through all this to just hand it back over after the election, the credibility of the party doesn't seem to bother them anymore, it's about a fight for the movement.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-stay-on-leader-labour-party-general-election-2017-party-conference-a7691911.html

 

Quote

Jeremy Corbyn is expected to stay on as Labour leader even if he leads his party to a crushing election defeat on June 8, The Independent can reveal. Party figures close to the Labour leader have said there is a good chance Mr Corbyn will either refuse to resign or run again to retain power.

There are two ways he can do this from what I can see,

 

1) Stay on and challenge anybody to stand against him if they think they can do better, probably his best option as the high court legal challenge from last year would mean he would retain the right to still be on the ballot paper as the incumbent, if 100,000 new members really have joined since the election you imagine they will be pro-Corbyn ones.

 

2) Intend to go but ensure a hard left candidate for the next leadership election - ie cling on long enough until McDonnell can change this ruling at the NEC that instead of 15% of the PLP to nominate a candidate it only needs to be 5% (an utterly ridiculous idea by the way, how on earth can you run a party thats own rules say 94% of your own MP's can want you out but do nothing about it is absurd, if ever something summed up the idiots currently running the show this is it)

 

If could be a real fight as the moderates know now they need to completely break off with anything connected to these last few years to stand a chance of capturing anyone from the centre or centre right again, Corbyn, Momentum etc - they've all got to be exiled.

 

If they lose it can't then be anything else but a new centre left party for 2022 and in my opinion they could still do very well, because we've had 18 months of Corbyn, Diane Abbott, McDonnell, Rayner etc as the public face of Labour people have forgot they still have a lot of talent on the backbenches or in the background - Umanna, Jarvis, Cooper, Burnham, Kendall, Watson, Creasy and Benn are all more than capable politicians and a party with them at the front would instantly be a better option than the Liberal Democrats, the Tories won't relish having to deal with them again in a proper manner.

 

 

22 minutes ago, Webbo said:

It's no secret, It's been widely covered in the press.  It doesn't seem to be making much impact in the polls.

 

The other parties aren't making much of this, probably because they know they're likely to be caught as well.

They already have, the reason Labour aren't kicking up a massive fuss about this is pretty obvious, they have been fined for exactly the same thing albeit on a smaller scale.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/labour-fined-20000-for-undeclared-election-spending-including-for-ed-stone

 

A mugger isn't going to point a bank robber and shout "get that thieving bastard".

 

 

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Assuming that actual votes are in line with polls (which seems likely, at this stage), it's interesting to speculate where British politics might be in 5 years time.

 

If Labour gets decimated as badly as the polls are suggesting, it will surely take them several years to regroup, if they do at all. There might even be some sort of centre-left realignment, though it's hard to see how that would come about.

 

In the meantime, the Tories would have absolute power and absolute responsibility....in some of the most difficult political circumstances imaginable.

Obviously, some believe that Brexit can rapidly be successful, but even many Brexiteers would expect success to take many, long turbulent years.

What will the reaction be if an all-powerful Tory Government struggles to do a good Brexit deal and/or serious economic problems arise and/or taxes have to rise or public services suffer even more drastic cuts?

 

If they win, as expected, the Tories will have 5 years, but 2 of those years will be taken up by negotiations, probably followed by at least a couple more years of transition arrangements and negotiations over trade deals.

If times are difficult for 5 years or more, will the public have the patience and positivity about a better Britain post-Brexit, or will the blame game start? If the blame game gets serious, who'll face all the hostility? The Tory Govt? The EU? Foreigners/scapegoats?

 

Interesting times ahead.....

Do you think Corbyn will resign if he loses?

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Do you think Corbyn will resign if he loses?

There was an article in the Indy last week i think which suggested he already may be making plans to cling on even if he loses, and loses big! 

 

Haven't seen much else to back that up but it's pretty depressing if so

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Emilio Lestavez said:

There was an article in the Indy last week i think which suggested he already may be making plans to cling on even if he loses, and loses big! 

 

Haven't seen much else to back that up but it's pretty depressing if so

Yeah it's not right, it's a shame he can't engage with the parties core and they are alienated. If it can't be wrestled from his/their grasp, they have to cut losses and break off fast. 5 years is not a long time to build trust in a new party and it could well be a decade with people left with no political voice. Which is tragic, however much I don't agree with them.