General Election, June 8th

[davieG]

Just now, Realist Guy In The Room said:

Just announce Shakey and stop

dicking about!

Which party would that be for?

[LiberalFox]

16 hours ago, MattP said:

We must all come together. Hope, not hate. Nothing to do with Islam. Nothing to do with Muslims. Just a rogue individual, possibly in the employ of some mysterious foreign agency. Just terrorism, bad people. Unaligned wickedness. Nothing to do with religion. We must all come together. And show love. And solidarity. Hope not hate.

Je Suis Ariana Grande. Already viciousness is being expressed on social media sites. People jumping to all sorts of conclusions. Horrible, horrible, people – no better than the murderer. Who might just as easily have been a Methodist. Remember Jo Cox? That wasn’t them, was it? There, you see.

So we should come together. Hope not hate. Nothing to do with Islam. Nothing to do with Muslims. Just horridness of no discernible provenance. Hope not hate.

 

(Lifted from the great Rod L)

 

What is great about Rod Liddle? He just comes across as a pure troll. What's his idea of a solution, casual bigotry and cynicism? What's great about that?

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

 

What is great about Rod Liddle? He just comes across as a pure troll. What's his idea of a solution, casual bigotry and cynicism? What's great about that?

 

That's exactly what he is. Exhibit A being his attitude towards women who actually want to do something with their lives other than staying in the kitchen (and encouraging other women to do so too.)

[Alf Bentley]

51 minutes ago, davieG said:

Which party would that be for?

 

The JamieVardy'sHavingA Party?

[Sharpe's Fox]

Nah Rod Liddle is fantastic even though he looks a bit like Zippy

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Nah Rod Liddle is fantastic even though he looks a bit like Zippy

Sorry Sharpe, gotta disagree. It may just be all clickbait bluster that he writes down but if he really believes it too then he's a misogynist dinosaur.

[Webbo]

Sterling tumbled Friday, putting it on course for its worst week this year against the dollar, as a poll showed the Conservative Party’s lead over the main opposition Labour Party has narrowed to five percentage points. That came after weeks of surveys showing a bigger Tory lead had made the vote all but a foregone conclusion for the market. The tighter poll prompted a measure of expected volatility that covers the June 8 election to jump by the most since October’s flash crash.

“We’re potentially in the trouble zone,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank. “Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/sterling-slips-as-poll-shows-tory-lead-narrows-after-bomb-attack

 

 

So, anyone who thinks brexit was a disaster because the value of the pound went down, can't possibly vote Labour.

[Sharpe's Fox]

On Rod Liddle, speak of the devil and he shall appear.

 

Quote

I am trying to remember if there was ever a worse Conservative election campaign than this current dog’s breakfast — and failing. Certainly 2001 was pretty awful, with Oliver Letwin going rogue and Thatcher sniping nastily from behind the arras. It is often said that 1987 was a little lacklustre and Ted Heath had effectively thrown in the towel in October 1974. But I don’t think anything quite matches up to this combination of prize gaffes and the robotic incantation of platitudinous idiocies.

To have suggested that the hunting with dogs legislation might be subject to a free vote in the House of Commons was, whether you are pro hunting or against, a move of quite stunning stupidity. Why alienate that 84 per cent of the electorate opposed to fox-hunting (Ipsos-Mori, 2016), especially when some of them (including me) are quite passionately anti-hunting and might be tempted to change their vote? And when you already have the pro-fox-hunting votes in your grasp? It makes no electoral sense.

Still more remarkable was the decision to force demented people to sell their own houses, if they can remember where they are, to pay for their own care. Followed very shortly by an embarrassing U-turn.

This was passed off by the Tories as an example of pristine honesty, of nettles being grasped in an admirably transparent manner. But, like much of the current Tory campaign, it smacked to me of two things — complacency and arrogance. It suggested yet again that Theresa May called this election convinced that almost nothing she could do or say would prevent the inevitable landslide.

I think she was horribly wrong about that. I just pray to the Lord Jesus Christ that she was not so horribly wrong that we wake up on 9 June to find that Diane Abbott is the Home Secretary, Emily Thornberry in charge of Trident, all part of a Labour-Lib Dem-Tartan Munchkin Alliance, aided by that sinister reptilian Green woman, Lucas, and Natalie Wood or whatever her name is from Wales, look you.

That scenario is still unlikely, but I will bet it is not half so unlikely as many of you, or Theresa May, believed when the election was called. Back then the headlines were talking of a Labour and Ukip wipeout and a landslide for the Tories.

I never remotely bought that notion, no matter what the polls said. I have been banging on for ages about how the Labour vote, especially in the north, is a lot ‘stickier’ than the pollsters think. My guess was that May would win a majority of 30 or so, but that was before Conservative Central Office took out its hardy shotgun and began blowing off both of its feet. I may have to revise that figure downwards. Either way, and those gaffes excluded, here’s why I think the Tory lead in the polls has been halved — yes, halved — despite the fact that the Labour party is led by Chauncey Gardiner out of Hal Ashby’s wonderful satire Being There.

First, the election was not wanted and is deeply resented beyond the Westminster bubble. The only people who actually enjoy elections are journos and the politically active: that leaves 97 per cent of the population who are somewhat averse, especially after a bruising referendum last year. May is resented for having foisted the election upon us, and people may be inclined to punish her for it, either by staying at home or voting against. The most salient comment of this election may have been made on the day it was called, by Brenda of Bristol: ‘Oh no, what’s she done that for?’ People suspect that their lives are being disrupted for Theresa May’s political and personal gain. And they’re not wrong, are they?

Second. Jeremy Corbyn is not notably less popular in the Midlands and north of the country than Ed Miliband was. And he has had a good election so far. The Labour vote remains buoyant and is growing. Don’t forget that the populist revolution we have seen here and in the US and in Europe does not come exclusively from the right. Corbyn presents an anti-establishment populist left-wing agenda, much as did Syriza and Five Star (and the SNP, come to that) and he offers it to an electorate which has a certain appetite for such radicalism. If he changed his tune on immigration he could conceivably win.

Third. Theresa May has the personal warmth, wit, oratorical ability and attractiveness of an Indesit fridge-freezer which has been faultily connected by a man called Trevor for five quid, cash in hand, and which is now full of decomposing Findus Crispy Pancakes. There is no vision, there is no chutzpah. Just the bland repetition of meaningless phrases. Corbyn is a far better campaigner.

Fourth. Yes, the Labour front bench has the collective IQ of a fairly small bowl of krill. But the Conservative front bench is pretty thinnish, too, isn’t it? Would you book Amber Rudd or Philip Hammond to deliver a rousing speech at your company’s annual shindig? I’d rather listen to a tape of Greylag geese squabbling over mating rights.

Fifth. The Ukip vote will migrate to the Tories en masse — but in the south, where they don’t need it. Far less so in the north and Midlands, where they do need it. There, many will remain with Ukip, especially if Paul Nuttall ramps up the anti-Islam rhetoric in the wake of the Manchester atrocity. Of the rest, a fair few will go back to the habitual berth of the Labour party.

Sixth. I had not expected the Lib Dem vote to disappear. But given that it does seem to be disappearing, it won’t turn up in the pockets of Conservative candidates. Almost anyone but — and most likely Labour.

I’ve always thought that calling the election was a mistake predicated on misplaced confidence. Today, I’m even more convinced of that view.

 

 

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/this-is-the-worst-tory-election-campaign-ever/

 

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Nah Rod Liddle is fantastic even though he looks a bit like Zippy

You spelled fat **** wrong.

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

On Rod Liddle, speak of the devil and he shall appear.

 

 

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/this-is-the-worst-tory-election-campaign-ever/

 

 

TBF most of that is spot on.

 

Man is still a patronising chauvinist, though.

[bovril]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Man is still a patronising chauvinist, though.

I don't care about his views I just find him incredibly boring. One of those drones who thinks he's 'telling it like it is' but is just saying what you could easily find on any youtube comment section.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

I don't care about his views I just find him incredibly boring. One of those drones who thinks he's 'telling it like it is' but is just saying what you could easily find on any youtube comment section.

 

That's fair. Just unfortunate that he has a bigger platform (for now) for other patronising chauvinists to read, point and nod at than the average Youtube commenter.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

Sterling tumbled Friday, putting it on course for its worst week this year against the dollar, as a poll showed the Conservative Party’s lead over the main opposition Labour Party has narrowed to five percentage points. That came after weeks of surveys showing a bigger Tory lead had made the vote all but a foregone conclusion for the market. The tighter poll prompted a measure of expected volatility that covers the June 8 election to jump by the most since October’s flash crash.

“We’re potentially in the trouble zone,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank. “Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-26/sterling-slips-as-poll-shows-tory-lead-narrows-after-bomb-attack

 

 

So, anyone who thinks brexit was a disaster because the value of the pound went down, can't possibly vote Labour.

And anybody who didn't mind that the pound went down as a result of the Brexit vote won't mind that its going down now. Not sure how it cam be directly attributed to any one thing though. I'd also want to see more than 2 days data to even say thats what's happening. So all in all limited data set, no justification for why it would be based on the polls (maybe it is, maybe it isnt) and no reason to think it wouldn't just bounce back. 

[Kopfkino]

I love this new way of politics that Jeremy Corbyn supposedly represents, sit there for 15 minutes and not answer a single question.....

[davieG]

1 minute ago, KingGTF said:

I love this new way of politics that Jeremy Corbyn supposedly represents, sit there for 15 minutes and not answer a single question.....

Nothing new there politicians have always avoided answering questions and I think you're exaggerating probably to make a point but never the less that's probably your bias showing.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

Expected that to be a bit more brutal.

 

I dont think there was much to choose between that and the May interview to be honest.

[Dr The Singh]

14 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

I love this new way of politics that Jeremy Corbyn supposedly represents, sit there for 15 minutes and not answer a single question.....

I thought he came across well.for a fool

[Sharpe's Fox]

4 minutes ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

Expected that to be a bit more brutal.

 

I dont think there was much to choose between that and the May interview to be honest.

Neil hit Corbyn with harder questions but JC has been making the same arguments for decades and it showed. Neil was battering him with a cricket bat and was landing hits but Corbyn wasn't doubling over.

 

May's had more subdued questions but they were from a social care controversy that had rumbled on all week and came to a climax with that interview, and she couldn't hack it.

[Webbo]

35 minutes ago, toddybad said:

And anybody who didn't mind that the pound went down as a result of the Brexit vote won't mind that its going down now. Not sure how it cam be directly attributed to any one thing though. I'd also want to see more than 2 days data to even say thats what's happening. So all in all limited data set, no justification for why it would be based on the polls (maybe it is, maybe it isnt) and no reason to think it wouldn't just bounce back. 

I'll mind if Labour get in though. It seems the city experts don't think you can borrow money for free after all.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

8 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Neil hit Corbyn with harder questions but JC has been making the same arguments for decades and it showed. Neil was battering him with a cricket bat and was landing hits but Corbyn wasn't doubling over.

 

May's had more subdued questions but they were from a social care controversy that had rumbled on all week and came to a climax with that interview, and she couldn't hack it.

Cant disagree with that.  The IRA stuff  he's answered a million and one times and it showed.  Neil was trying to rough him up over it but it just looked like water off a ducks back.

 

He really lacks charisma in a 1-1 interview situation I find.  When its talking to a crowd or in PMQ situations he seems to come alive but 1-1 he's pretty bland.

 

May is pretty poor in both situations so its no wonder the polls are closing.

[LiberalFox]

16 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'll mind if Labour get in though. It seems the city experts don't think you can borrow money for free after all.

 

Thought experts were out of fashion?

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, LiberalFox said:

 

Thought experts were out of fashion?

People who stand to lose money are a better judge than some theorist. So is the fall in the pound bad or not?

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'll mind if Labour get in though. It seems the city experts don't think you can borrow money for free after all.

The city experts are only worried about their own profits. Its bound to drop if they think there's a risk of a higher corporation tax. Doesn't mean its the wrong policy at all. Its purely based on speculation, not reality, like everything else that happens with the stock markets. 

[Webbo]

Just now, toddybad said:

The city experts are only worried about their own profits. Its bound to drop if they think there's a risk of a higher corporation tax. Doesn't mean its the wrong policy at all. Its purely based on speculation, not reality, like everything else that happens with the stock markets. 

Labour's plans are supposed to be good for the economy. Profits should be going up under Labour.

 

If Jezza gets in the £ will drop through the floor.

[Guest]

Just now, Webbo said:

Labour's plans are supposed to be good for the economy. Profits should be going up under Labour.

 

If Jezza gets in the £ will drop through the floor.

It'll drop, it'll recover.

The economy is in a compete mess at the moment yet stock prices have continued to rise due to qe largely being directed by banks in such a way as to have that effect. There's nothing happening in the real economy which would point to shares being at record highs. The last thing i would want to do is determine social policy based on whether share prices were going up or down.