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The Politics Thread 2019

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1 minute ago, Facecloth said:

I said apart from that post I've not directly called you name, yet you've actively avoided properly replying to me. I can only summarise its because you don't have to ability to challenge my points.

Strange that you started off by insulting me? It's almost as if that's your way of challenging me rather than putting across sensible points as to why we should remain.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Strange that you started off by insulting me? It's almost as if that's your way of challenging me rather than putting across sensible points as to why we should remain.

 

 

I didn't directly insult you, I replied to another poster. I've never directly called you anything. And you're still yet to prove me wrong. Want me not to call you easily led, a simpleton etc. Prove to me you're not.

Edited by Facecloth

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3 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

I'd like Brexit to be a success (because while I always like the opportunity to be smug and say "told you so", it really isn't worth the country going down the shitter), but all the evidence points to the fact that the quality of life for the majority of people will be worse off. When the arguments from the Brexit side amount to "well, we won't starve", then you know the promises once made about how prosperous we'd be under Brexit are just a fantasy. Now I don't think Brexit will cause the world to end. But I do think things like food prices will go up and I do think people, and the country, will be poorer because of it. Many of our services are strained as it is (look at the beating the NHS is taking), and adding Brexit to the mix is going to add even more pressure to those services. We have so many domestic problems, but they're not caused by the EU, and Brexit will only exacerbate these.

 

 As much as I am ideologically opposed to Brexit (I think closer union is the only way to tackle many problems which face the whole planet), I could live with the compromise of a softer Brexit. But leaving without a deal in place is no compromise, that's the most extreme of the possible solutions. And when you have a split of 48/52 (which lets face it, is probably closer to 50/50 by now), I feel compromise is needed from all sides. Brexiteers seem to wonder why there's so much animosity about no deal. Well, imagine how you feel if we voted to remain in the EU, and then a select few in charge decided that meant we should join the Euro and the Schengen Zone.

 

I've tried to look at it from the other point of view, I really have, and I would honestly love to be proved wrong, but I can't see how leaving without a deal outweighs all of the negatives that will likely come with it. I just feel that we lose so many rights under Brexit, we take so much potential risk (and probably actual harm), and the potential benefit is so very little.

 

 

No one wants to leave without a deal.  We have to be prepared to do so though.  If we had started this three years ago we would be out with a decent deal by now.

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3 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

I didn't directly insult you, I replied to another poster. I've never directly called you anything. And you're still yet to prove me wrong. Want mr not to call you easily led, a simpleton etc. Prove to me you're not.

I think you need to find yourself some manners my good sir. The way in which you talk to people really isn't acceptable.

Edited by Leicester_Loyal

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Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

I think you need to find yourself some manners my good sir. The way in which is talk to people really isn't acceptable.

Prove me wrong.

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/01/boris-johnson-brexit-sacrifice-majority-by-withdrawing-whip-from-rebel-mps

 

"Boris Johnson is prepared to blow up his own parliamentary majority and withdraw the whip from dozens of Conservative MPs if they back plans to stop no-deal Brexit, Tory whips have warned potential rebels, in an extreme move by Downing Street that would pave the way for an imminent general election. As hostilities escalated, Johnson also signalled how serious his intention is to follow through the threat of deselection by abruptly ripping up plans for a meeting with rebellious former ministers, including Philip Hammond and David Gauke, that had been billed as a last-ditch effort to limit support for the action in parliament".

 

Seems that the plans for an election pitting "The People" against our "Sovereign, Democratic Parliament" are progressing.....even at the cost of much greater bitterness and division in our country and the risk of violence in the streets.

 

A comparison: When 100 Tory MPs (mainly Hard Brexit / ERG types) repeatedly voted against May's Deal, they did not lose the whip or get deselected.

 

Another comparison: When there were rumours of Corbyn having centrist Labour MPs deselected (none deselected yet, I think), this was attacked as a sign of extremism. So what does that make this Govt, if not an intolerant, anti-democratic extremist force?

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24 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

No one wants to leave without a deal.  We have to be prepared to do so though.  If we had started this three years ago we would be out with a decent deal by now.

 

I understand the premise, but I feel that if the EU were going to blink, they would have done so already. The EU know we have a weaker hand than they do, so they won't fold first.

 

While I disagree that it will hurt the EU just as much as it will hurt us, leaving without a deal will still be damaging for the EU too. However, I believe the EU are more prepared for a no deal scenario than we are (and even if they're not, I believe that the EU certainly believe they're more prepared for one than we are, which is more pertinent to the negotiations). If I were the EU, I would probably think that I just need to wait it out, and that the UK will either blink before the Brexit date, or when a no-deal Brexit starts to go badly, they'll change their tune.

 

Many people believe that Brexit won't necessarily a economic benefit, but it's ideologically important, so they'll be willing to take a financial hit. But people seem to overlook that the same is true with the EU. It's just as much about the ideology of the unuin, and they're reluctant to compromise that at the best of times - they certainly won't compromise that under the current circumstances. Not only that, but the EU would look extremely weak if they dropped the back-stop now, and that would certainly jeopardise the future of the union. They can't afford to change their position now (other than to perhaps make very minor concessions).

 

So yes, we can try and play chicken - I understand why that generally is needed in negotiations. But I don't think the EU will budge. I think that they're more than willing to take a financial hit rather than fold. From their perspective, it's the only sensible play.

Edited by Charl91
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1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

 

I understand the premise, but I feel that if the EU were going to blink, they would have done so already. The EU know we have a weaker hand than they do, so they won't fold first.

 

While I disagree that it will hurt the EU just as much as it will hurt us, leaving without a deal will still be damaging for the EU too. However, I believe the EU are more prepared for a no deal scenario than we are (and even if they're not, I believe that the EU certainly believe they're more prepared for one than we are, which is more pertinent to the negotiations). If I were the EU, I would probably think that I just need to wait it out, and that the UK will either blink before the Brexit date, or when a no-deal Brexit starts to go badly, they'll change their tune.

 

Many people believe that Brexit won't necessarily a economic benefit, but it's ideologically important, so they'll be willing to take a financial hit. But people seem to overlook that the same is true with the EU. It's just as much about the ideology of the unuin, and they're reluctant to compromise that at the best of times - they certainly won't compromise that under the current circumstances. Not only that, but the EU would look extremely weak if they dropped the back-stop now, and that would certainly jeopardise the future of the union. They can't afford to change their position now (other than to perhaps make very minor concessions).

 

So yes, we can try and play chicken - I understand why that generally is needed in negotiations. But I don't think the EU will budge. I think that they're more than willing to take a financial hit rather than fold. From their perspective, it's the only sensible play.

First point disagree, why would they change their position when they see such turmoil within parliament and the alleged attempts to legislate against a no deal.

If you would care to elaborate on the second point and the most interesting from my point of view, are you suggesting showing a position of weakness may encourage other member states to leave ?

 

Actually with the benefit of half an hour hindsight don't bother replying as the whole Brexit debate has now become synonymous with multistable perception.

Goodnight my friends.

Edited by The Guvnor

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12 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Mind if I ask a quick question on this, as I'm interested in a Leavers answer:

 

What makes you think the project is declining, and how is the decline considered desirous when right now international co-operation seems to be required more than ever, particularly in the EU wrt setting an example as both the US and China are very busy looking after number 1 (yes, of course other types of co-operation are possible than the methodology the EU uses, but it is a symbol of such co-operation anyway)?

 

I can't see a more fractured, disparate world being anything other than a bad thing for the future.

Would still be interested in an answer on this from any leavers about.

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What happens if any kind of snap vote is called while I'm out of the country? 

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5 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

I think I might have preferred chaos with Ed Miliband.

But he looks weird eating a bacon sandwich. I mean surely you'd rather someone in charge who promises a country dividing referendum with no real answer to save his own party.

 

Funny bacon sandwich face v country destroying referendum. No contest.

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4 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

But he looks weird eating a bacon sandwich. I mean surely you'd rather someone in charge who promises a country dividing referendum with no real answer to save his own party.

 

Funny bacon sandwich face v country destroying referendum. No contest.

Don’t forget the Edstone.  Such lack of judgement cannot be allowed to stand.

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8 hours ago, Charl91 said:

 

I understand the premise, but I feel that if the EU were going to blink, they would have done so already. The EU know we have a weaker hand than they do, so they won't fold first.

 

While I disagree that it will hurt the EU just as much as it will hurt us, leaving without a deal will still be damaging for the EU too. However, I believe the EU are more prepared for a no deal scenario than we are (and even if they're not, I believe that the EU certainly believe they're more prepared for one than we are, which is more pertinent to the negotiations). If I were the EU, I would probably think that I just need to wait it out, and that the UK will either blink before the Brexit date, or when a no-deal Brexit starts to go badly, they'll change their tune.

 

Many people believe that Brexit won't necessarily a economic benefit, but it's ideologically important, so they'll be willing to take a financial hit. But people seem to overlook that the same is true with the EU. It's just as much about the ideology of the unuin, and they're reluctant to compromise that at the best of times - they certainly won't compromise that under the current circumstances. Not only that, but the EU would look extremely weak if they dropped the back-stop now, and that would certainly jeopardise the future of the union. They can't afford to change their position now (other than to perhaps make very minor concessions).

 

So yes, we can try and play chicken - I understand why that generally is needed in negotiations. But I don't think the EU will budge. I think that they're more than willing to take a financial hit rather than fold. From their perspective, it's the only sensible play.

It’s not about taking a financial hit - which I agree the ideologues would happily do.  It’s about whether Merkel wants to step down in a recession; whether Varadkar wants to explain to his voters why he didn’t do a deal to save the Irish economy.  Whether Macron thinks he can survive potential chaos on his northern border. 

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1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Don’t forget the Edstone.  Such lack of judgement cannot be allowed to stand.

Bacon sandwiches and Edstone are still better than calling a poorly planned referendum. Forget all the brexit arguments, the whole planning and implementation of the process has been terrible since the moment that ballot paper was drawn up.

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Just now, Facecloth said:

Bacon sandwiches and Edstone are still better than calling a poorly planned referendum. Forget all the brexit arguments, the whole planning and implementation of the process has been terrible since the moment that ballot paper was drawn up.

It was criminal not to have a plan for a leave vote agreed.

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1 hour ago, Finnegan said:

What happens if any kind of snap vote is called while I'm out of the country? 

Apply for asylum wherever it is you're going?

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11 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Bacon sandwiches and Edstone are still better than calling a poorly planned referendum. Forget all the brexit arguments, the whole planning and implementation of the process has been terrible since the moment that ballot paper was drawn up.

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone that disagrees with you on this. It's been a mess. 

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11 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

Leaked report that the government has difficulties with all of its potential backstop alternatives.

 

What a farce.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/irish-border-after-brexit-all-ideas-beset-by-issues

Don't mean to be "that guy" but the government has difficulties with the current backstop too. :unsure:

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11 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

It’s not about taking a financial hit - which I agree the ideologues would happily do.  

12 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

It was criminal not to have a plan for a leave vote agreed.

 

 

Agreed. However, on reflection I'm not sure it would have made too much difference. The only thing that would have avoided the current crisis would have been to dismantle or re-negotiate the Good Friday Agreement. I just can't imagine how the Government would even begin with that.

 

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6 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Don't mean to be "that guy" but the government has difficulties with the current backstop too. :unsure:

The report talks about actual difficulties in making the alternatives reality, not just not liking them.

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