The Politics Thread 2019

[Buce]

[Wortho]

11 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

 

 

Will you be protesting against this terrible prorogation by taking to the streets?

[Grebfromgrebland]

8 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

He believes everything he reads on Twitter

Actually I wish it was all bollocks but it isn't.

[Buce]

 

'Culture of fear' in number 10:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking

[Merging Cultures]

I think this is politics...

 

The High Commissioner to Zambia was a complete Dick this week. He basically pointed out a lot of issues directly, when he could have been more diplomatic about them. 

 

I work directly with Government here, and I call them out personally when they are being twats... But you don't do it in the press and social media.

 

He's basically Fuch'd relationships for the next 5-7 years.

 

Dick.

[Dirkster the Fox]

2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

'Culture of fear' in number 10:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking

Hey Buce,

 

You on the streets doing a job tomorrow dude?

 

[Dirkster the Fox]

6 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Parliament is the law. If 310/MPs (or whatever it is) club together, the government is stuffed.

 

 

 

 

Absolutely, 17.4+ million voters mean bob all and correctly so. They're irrelevant, the 310+ MP's are there to serve the other 16 Million voters.

 

Quite correct!

[HappyHamza]

18 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Absolutely, 17.4+ million voters mean bob all and correctly so. They're irrelevant, the 310+ MP's are there to serve the other 16 Million voters.

 

Quite correct!

They're not there to serve anybody. 

 

They are there to represent all 65+m people that live in the UK, listening to expert analysis and public opinion to arrive at conclusions in respect of complicated  matters for the best outcome for everybody. 

[Stadt]

What is a bit depressing is that if brexit "isn't that bad" it'll be seen as a win.

[The Fox Covert]

44 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

They're not there to serve anybody. 

 

They are there to represent all 65+m people that live in the UK, listening to expert analysis and public opinion to arrive at conclusions in respect of complicated  matters for the best outcome for everybody. 

We have a Prime Minister who once declared that 'there is no point in being a Conservative if you don't want to turn the clock back to 1904'.

An era in which there were next to no worker rights, no unemployment benefit, no universal pension provision and no NHS. And a particularly vicious, nasty and reactionary Conservative government with one of the most incompetent leaders in UK history. Chilling.

In fact what Boris has done is even worse than that.

The last time that Parliament was prorogued for political ends, to silence opposition to the government, was in 1629, by Charles 1st.

I have read quite a lot of news about the UK by our former friends in the EU today and they all think the UK has gone mad.

Virtually the only politician worldwide to voice approval for Boris Johnson's actions has been been Donald Trump.

Did the leave voters really vote to become the de facto 51st state of the USA???

 

[leicsmac]

Does anyone else fear, genuinely fear, that while there might not be a full-on civil conflict there may well at least be some violence between the two ideological poles before all of this is done?

 

I just don't see any end to the polarisation - I might be repeating myself but if what I see here is any judge an amicable agreement on Brexit seems unlikely and from what I can tell the only other way this gets resolved is by one side or the other getting "neutralised", one way or the other. Which would be ugly.

[Donk]

41 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Does anyone else fear, genuinely fear, that while there might not be a full-on civil conflict there may well at least be some violence between the two ideological poles before all of this is done?

 

I just don't see any end to the polarisation - I might be repeating myself but if what I see here is any judge an amicable agreement on Brexit seems unlikely and from what I can tell the only other way this gets resolved is by one side or the other getting "neutralised", one way or the other. Which would be ugly.

The only way the country will stop being polarised, is if brexit actually does improve our lives.

 

Given that the people who actually BELIEVE leaving would be better have said

 

"Large parts of manufacturing and agriculture will need to be run down, and itll be in your interests to do it"(economist to the ERG patrick minford)

 

"the benefits to brexit may become apparent in 50 or so years"

(ERG ideological brexiter jacob rees mogg)

 

"The trade deal we will do with the eu will be one of the easiest in human history"

(Trade secretary liam fox)

 

"There would be job losses. I would do it with a heavy heart but it is a price worth paying"

(Jeremy Hunt in reference to a Northamptonshire manufacturer who could not sustain a rise in production costs due to tariffs)

 

"The EU are masters of hard nosed negotiation and we were not"

(Ian Duncan-Smith)

 

"I did not realise the significance of the dover-calais crossing

(Brexit secretary Dominic Raab)

 

"**** Business"

(PRIME MINISTER Boris Johnson)

 

When people who SUPPORT something say this about something they SUPPORT

 

I hold little hope that itll achieve those improvements the EU was preventing us from.

[Donk]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Does anyone else fear, genuinely fear, that while there might not be a full-on civil conflict there may well at least be some violence between the two ideological poles before all of this is done?

 

I just don't see any end to the polarisation - I might be repeating myself but if what I see here is any judge an amicable agreement on Brexit seems unlikely and from what I can tell the only other way this gets resolved is by one side or the other getting "neutralised", one way or the other. Which would be ugly.

On the flip side of that, if it all goes badly itll be the fault of:

 

The intrasigent EU

 

The intrasigent EU who gave us a shoddy deal (if we leave with a deal)

 

The intrasigent EU who forced us to leave with no deal (if we leave with no deal despite supposedly "wanting it")

 

Theresa May for not negotiating a good enough deal (it was the only one available and not being brexity enough)

 

Our democratically elected parliament (that isnt sovereign)

 

People who didnt "believe" enough in brexit and who "talked the country down"

 

Foreigners (for their mere existence)

 

"Remoaners"

 

The irish backstop (a simple problem they say, that no one can ever solve)

 

Lefties

 

"The Liberal Metropolitan Elite"

 

The playing of ode to joy

 

 

 

I could go on

 

But it definitely, definitely under no circumstances will it be the fault of the people who voted for it, encouraged by people who lied and broke electoral law, and that it was a rubbish idea in the first place.

 

[Heathrow fox]

48 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Does anyone else fear, genuinely fear, that while there might not be a full-on civil conflict there may well at least be some violence between the two ideological poles before all of this is done?

 

I just don't see any end to the polarisation - I might be repeating myself but if what I see here is any judge an amicable agreement on Brexit seems unlikely and from what I can tell the only other way this gets resolved is by one side or the other getting "neutralised", one way or the other. Which would be ugly.

Can honestly say that if I didn’t watch the news or browsed these pages,i wouldn’t know Brexit even exsisted.Its simply not talked about,and I’d like to think I get around a bit.Apart from the initial couple of weeks after the referendum,when most people were more than happy to say which side they landed on.Even last March I saw zero panic.Though to be fair it looked inevitable that there was going to be an extension.As the 31st of October approaches,again I see zero panic.Though of course i can’t see what goes on behind closed doors.I get the impression that most just want to get it done and dusted.To move on.

 

I would even say that if they did call the whole thing off it would pass by quite peacefully.Yes there’d be a few bricks going through a few windows.The riot police may have to come out a couple of times.For one or two months there would be some seriously pissed off people.Things would settle down quite quickly though.Long term damage would be seen in future voter turnout.A good percentage just wouldn’t vote again.

 

 

[leicsmac]

26 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

Can honestly say that if I didn’t watch the news or browsed these pages,i wouldn’t know Brexit even exsisted.Its simply not talked about,and I’d like to think I get around a bit.Apart from the initial couple of weeks after the referendum,when most people were more than happy to say which side they landed on.Even last March I saw zero panic.Though to be fair it looked inevitable that there was going to be an extension.As the 31st of October approaches,again I see zero panic.Though of course i can’t see what goes on behind closed doors.I get the impression that most just want to get it done and dusted.To move on.

 

I would even say that if they did call the whole thing off it would pass by quite peacefully.Yes there’d be a few bricks going through a few windows.The riot police may have to come out a couple of times.For one or two months there would be some seriously pissed off people.Things would settle down quite quickly though.Long term damage would be seen in future voter turnout.A good percentage just wouldn’t vote again.

 

 

I hope you're right and I'm reading too much into the polarised antipathy.

[Ashley]

Over heard an argument regarding Brexit the other day. I stayed quiet and listened in..... but it did make me wonder.

 

"We voted leave, it means leave so we're leaving".

 

"We didnt know what we voted for so we need a second referendum, do you know what the good friday agreement means?"

 

Now, i've looked into the GFA and i cant see anything in there that effects Brexit happening or am i looking in the wrong place? Could someone point me in the right direction is so? (please excuse my ignorance).

[simFox]

2 hours ago, Ashley said:

Over heard an argument regarding Brexit the other day. I stayed quiet and listened in..... but it did make me wonder.

 

"We voted leave, it means leave so we're leaving".

 

"We didnt know what we voted for so we need a second referendum, do you know what the good friday agreement means?"

 

Now, i've looked into the GFA and i cant see anything in there that effects Brexit happening or am i looking in the wrong place? Could someone point me in the right direction is so? (please excuse my ignorance).

Something to do with no hard border. Which won't change one bit after brexit.

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, Ashley said:

Over heard an argument regarding Brexit the other day. I stayed quiet and listened in..... but it did make me wonder.

 

"We voted leave, it means leave so we're leaving".

 

"We didnt know what we voted for so we need a second referendum, do you know what the good friday agreement means?"

 

Now, i've looked into the GFA and i cant see anything in there that effects Brexit happening or am i looking in the wrong place? Could someone point me in the right direction is so? (please excuse my ignorance).

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/08/15/brexit-the-irish-backstop-and-the-good-friday-agreement/

 

This is a decent summation.

 

18 minutes ago, simFox said:

Something to do with no hard border. Which won't change one bit after brexit.

Curious as to why you think that is the case, considering how much of a key sticking point it has been.

[HappyHamza]

3 hours ago, Ashley said:

Over heard an argument regarding Brexit the other day. I stayed quiet and listened in..... but it did make me wonder.

 

"We voted leave, it means leave so we're leaving".

 

"We didnt know what we voted for so we need a second referendum, do you know what the good friday agreement means?"

 

Now, i've looked into the GFA and i cant see anything in there that effects Brexit happening or am i looking in the wrong place? Could someone point me in the right direction is so? (please excuse my ignorance).

The issue with the border. The GFA is an international treaty in which we promise no hard border. Border infrastructure will be targeted if it is put up.

 

Leaving with no deal means falling back onto wto terms.

As well as meaning all of our exports worldwide will be hit by tariffs according to the wto tariff schedules of each country, who rules also require proper checks on goods.

 

The argument boris is using is that there is some system for doing this without it needing hard infrastructure or physical checks at the border. The Eu have said we need to tell them exactly how this system will work before they can agree to it.  Predictably, boris has come up with nothing but empty rhetoric and is trying to blame the eu.

Edited 31 August 2019 by HappyHamza

[Stadt]

I can’t speak for everyone but as a former leave voter, I honestly didn’t really know what I was voting for. I’m not very fond of the EU but a no deal Brexit definitely wasn’t what I voted for. Patriotism was probably a significant part of my my decision which isn’t ideal, obviously.

 

Is it democratic for something that I (and others) have changed their minds about to happen in the most extreme way possible?

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/08/15/brexit-the-irish-backstop-and-the-good-friday-agreement/

 

This is a decent summation.

 

 

A decent summation, but one containing a major gaffe when it claims that N. Ireland voted 2-1 for Remain.

 

N. Ireland voted 56%-44% for Remain.

 

They may have intended to say that the Catholic/Nationalist population of N. Ireland voted 2-1 for Remain, which would be true.

The Protestant/Unionist population voted more narrowly for Leave, hence the overall "win" for Remain in the province.

 

Here's a Brexit vote map: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

 

Interesting to note that every single border constituency voted Remain, including East Londonderry, which had a large DUP majority in 2017.

In Belfast, 3 out of 4 constituencies voted Remain, the other narrowly Leave.....despite the fact that the DUP hold 3 out of 4 seats. Likewise, North Down (an independent Unionist seat) voted Remain.

[Alf Bentley]

8 hours ago, Donk said:

On the flip side of that, if it all goes badly itll be the fault of:

 

The intrasigent EU

 

The intrasigent EU who gave us a shoddy deal (if we leave with a deal)

 

The intrasigent EU who forced us to leave with no deal (if we leave with no deal despite supposedly "wanting it")

 

Theresa May for not negotiating a good enough deal (it was the only one available and not being brexity enough)

 

Our democratically elected parliament (that isnt sovereign)

 

People who didnt "believe" enough in brexit and who "talked the country down"

 

Foreigners (for their mere existence)

 

"Remoaners"

 

The irish backstop (a simple problem they say, that no one can ever solve)

 

Lefties

 

"The Liberal Metropolitan Elite"

 

The playing of ode to joy

 

 

 

I could go on

 

But it definitely, definitely under no circumstances will it be the fault of the people who voted for it, encouraged by people who lied and broke electoral law, and that it was a rubbish idea in the first place.

 

 

Worryingly, there's every sign that this sort of blame game could be successful for Johnson's No Deal extremists.

 

A lot of people are already blaming our "undemocratic parliament" for frustrating "the will of the people" (as if "the people" ever voted for No Deal!).

 

If No Deal happens and proves disastrous, maybe some will turn on Boris & his Govt for their false promises that all would be well.....but an awful lot might swallow the line that you describe.

In any case, even if people do regret the outcome once No Deal has happened and do blame the Govt, it could take an awful long time to put right.....

 

I'm also concerned at how this blame game will play out with the attempts to block No Deal before Halloween, particularly as a lot of voters just want Brexit "done with" (which won't happen under any scenario - it'll be with us for years/decades):

- If Parliament or the Courts block No Deal, Johnson could trigger and win an October election, standing for "the will of the people to Brexit, with or without a deal" against the "undemocratic, elite" parliament, courts, intransigent EU...

- If Parliament votes No Confidence without an alternative govt lined up, Johnson could just wait the required 14 days, then call an election for before or after Halloween, as he preferred.

 

Of course, any election would be unpredictable, with very different outcomes in different parts of the country - exaggerated by FPTP. Johnson could call an election and fail to win....but he stands a fair chance of getting a majority, I'd say.

 

It may be that the only sure-fire way of blocking No Deal will be a Confidence Vote with an alternative caretaker govt lined up to take over within 14 days, to request an extension to renegotiate a new deal, hold its nose & bring back the WA and/or call a second referendum or election......some high-risk strategies in there, and it's by no means clear that the opposition parties & Tory rebels can agree on an alternative caretaker govt. It could be their fvcking duty to make sure they do! 

[Grebfromgrebland]

 

 

So many are banking on the demise of this country; profiting from pain, misery and despair of UK citizens.

 

If he's shorting £300M he could stand to make Billions. He's just one of many around the world who have bet big on this. Quite a few have admitted it too. 

 

No wonder Brexit means Brexit.

 

And no deal means bigger profits for these guys it's no wonder Boris Johnson has made a deal impossible with ridiculous red lines. 

 

He's basically said he's happy to break up the UK and allow Ireland to decend into war so him and his mates can make obscene amounts of money.

[Buce]

48 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Worryingly, there's every sign that this sort of blame game could be successful for Johnson's No Deal extremists.

 

A lot of people are already blaming our "undemocratic parliament" for frustrating "the will of the people" (as if "the people" ever voted for No Deal!).

 

If No Deal happens and proves disastrous, maybe some will turn on Boris & his Govt for their false promises that all would be well.....but an awful lot might swallow the line that you describe.

In any case, even if people do regret the outcome once No Deal has happened and do blame the Govt, it could take an awful long time to put right.....

 

I'm also concerned at how this blame game will play out with the attempts to block No Deal before Halloween, particularly as a lot of voters just want Brexit "done with" (which won't happen under any scenario - it'll be with us for years/decades):

- If Parliament or the Courts block No Deal, Johnson could trigger and win an October election, standing for "the will of the people to Brexit, with or without a deal" against the "undemocratic, elite" parliament, courts, intransigent EU...

- If Parliament votes No Confidence without an alternative govt lined up, Johnson could just wait the required 14 days, then call an election for before or after Halloween, as he preferred.

 

Of course, any election would be unpredictable, with very different outcomes in different parts of the country - exaggerated by FPTP. Johnson could call an election and fail to win....but he stands a fair chance of getting a majority, I'd say.

 

It may be that the only sure-fire way of blocking No Deal will be a Confidence Vote with an alternative caretaker govt lined up to take over within 14 days, to request an extension to renegotiate a new deal, hold its nose & bring back the WA and/or call a second referendum or election......some high-risk strategies in there, and it's by no means clear that the opposition parties & Tory rebels can agree on an alternative caretaker govt. It could be their fvcking duty to make sure they do! 

 

I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure that’s the first time I’ve ever seen you swear, Alf. 

 

Strange times. 

[Jon the Hat]

13 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/08/15/brexit-the-irish-backstop-and-the-good-friday-agreement/

 

This is a decent summation.

 

Curious as to why you think that is the case, considering how much of a key sticking point it has been.

Who is going to build a hard border?