FT General Election Poll 2019

[David Guiza]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

And that's exactly what Corbyn will have to do as well if he wants to be PM. Because he isn't winning a majority.

Absolutely, just the hypocrisy of it all.

 

I'd happily settle for a Labour, SNP, Green coalition, but I can't see it happening either on numbers or the respective parties agreeing to it. 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, David Guiza said:

Absolutely, just the hypocrisy of it all.

 

I'd happily settle for a Labour, SNP, Green coalition, but I can't see it happening either on numbers or the respective parties agreeing to it. 

Understand the logic of a Labour-Green coalition.

 

But how can you want a party in government of a country it's openly campaigning for to split up?

 

I can't think of a single precedent for that and for good reason.

[LiberalFox]

Does Corbyn really believe in the UK?

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Understand the logic of a Labour-Green coalition.

 

But how can you want a party in government of a country it's openly campaigning for to split up?

 

I can't think of a single precedent for that and for good reason.

Well, it would be a gamble but Labour would be banking, I think, on Remain winning a second referendum, which they would hope would diminish any appetite for independence by the time a Scottish referendum came round. That aside, I can't see them disagreeing too much policy wise so it wouldn't be completely insane on that front.

[Innovindil]

Regarding this twitter fiasco, can anyone tell me if they actually posted something that was incorrect when named a fact whatever. Really cba to go on twitter and sift through the reeeing masses. 

[LiberalFox]

The fact checking thing is pretty outrageous. Will it sway anyone's opinion though?

[David Guiza]

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

Understand the logic of a Labour-Green coalition.

 

But how can you want a party in government of a country it's openly campaigning for to split up?

 

I can't think of a single precedent for that and for good reason.

VB has effectively answered on my behalf, plus the fact that the SNP is the only reasonable party that could generate the numbers that Labour need. 

 

On the subject of the potential breakup of the Union, I did find Boris' response somewhat frustrating and the fact that he wasn't further quizzed on it. As has been discussed to death, every answer he gave was regarding Brexit and yet he didn't acknowledge, perhaps unsurprisingly, when discussing the Union that 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU. As VB mentioned, if Labour did get into power and hold a second referendum on the EU in which remain won, than the likelihood would be that the Scottish independence calls dampened down, whereas I can only see them growing under a Tory majority with the current crop and some sources have indicated that a good number of Brexit voters don't care if the Union breaks up, so long as we leave the EU.  

[Alf Bentley]

35 minutes ago, MattP said:

Understand the logic of a Labour-Green coalition.

 

But how can you want a party in government of a country it's openly campaigning for to split up?

 

I can't think of a single precedent for that and for good reason.

 

It's been an ongoing issue in Spain: minority Socialist govt backed by Catalan nationalists. Hasn't proved very stable, to say the least, partly because the Socialists have refused to give the Catalans much leeway.

 

Reading between the lines, Labour's strategy for dealing with the SNP seems clear. If Labour were able to form a govt, it would be a confidence-and-supply or similar, not a coalition. They'd renegotiate & legislate for a 2nd Brexit referendum with most of them hoping for a Remain outcome (but possibly not Corbyn ). They'd also throw a lot of investment money at Scotland. They'd refuse to consider IndyRef2 for the first couple of years but would keep open the possibility if the SNP won a majority in the 2021 Scottish elections, or possibly if we got a second Brexit vote. 

 

They'd then be effectively daring the SNP to bring down a Labour Govt that was offering a route out of Brexit and increased investment for Scotland, in favour of a strongly pro-Brexit Tory Govt that would be likely to spend less on Scotland....

Trickier position for the SNP than for Labour, I'd say. Long way to go before we get there, though! 

 

Massive hypocrisy by the Tories to bring this up, though - and Corbyn could have handled it better. Just point out that they spent 5 years in coalition, dependent on the LDs for their austerity programme & then dependent on the DUP once they were in a minority....having to cough up large "bribes" for the privilege (though, yes, any minority govt would face a similar scenario).

 

23 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Does Corbyn really believe in the UK?

 

Back in the 80s & early 90s, I'm sure he'd have supported Irish reunification. His sympathies probably still lie in that direction, but I doubt that he'd want to disrupt the Good Friday Agreement, in practice. I imagine he'd be more open to an early N. Irish referendum on reunification under the terms of the GFA - but might be blocked by moderates within his own party, unless such a referendum was clearly justified.

 

I don't think he'd want Scotland or Wales to go anywhere. As above, I reckon that the SNP would eventually get IndyRef2 out of Corbyn - and easier than they would out of the Tories - but only after a couple of years and only if support remained high for Scottish independence and the SNP, which Corbyn would hope to avoid.

 

Edited 20 November 2019 by Alf Bentley

[Alf Bentley]

26 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Does Corbyn really believe in the UK?

 

Postscript: There's even more question about the extent to which the Tories believe in the UK, in practice.

 

At least a couple of surveys of Tory Party members and Leave-voting Tories have found that a majority would be happy to see the break-up of the UK if it meant that Brexit happened.

 

In theory, the Tory Party strongly supports the Union, but does it matter much to them, in practice - or as much as Brexit matters? The way that Boris shafted the DUP over the "border in the Irish Sea" suggests not....

[Guest MattP]

28 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Does Corbyn really believe in the UK?

Well of course he doesn't - he's a lifelong supporter of a united Ireland.

 

Which is why it's so bizarre hearing him now express so much concern about the border.

 

24 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Well, it would be a gamble but Labour would be banking, I think, on Remain winning a second referendum, which they would hope would diminish any appetite for independence by the time a Scottish referendum came round. That aside, I can't see them disagreeing too much policy wise so it wouldn't be completely insane on that front.

Why do people think the SNP really care about the EU?

 

In 2014 it was widely accepted that remaining was the only way I stay in - the SNP wanted to come out of the union whatever the situation, they didn't care about borders, currency or anything, let alone the European Union. I can't believe how many people seem to have forgotten this.

 

There is pretty significant difference policy wise on taxation - just look at how little they increased taxes up North when given the power to do so, they still have the "tartan tories" element to them when it comes to business, surely also a huge clash awaits on oil extraction when facing the green revolution Labour wants?

 

Problem with these is the ONLY goal is independence - they'll be in government intending to cause as much chaos as possible and actively driving a further wedge between England and Scotland. 

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Postscript: There's even more question about the extent to which the Tories believe in the UK, in practice.

 

At least a couple of surveys of Tory Party members and Leave-voting Tories have found that a majority would be happy to see the break-up of the UK if it meant that Brexit happened.

 

In theory, the Tory Party strongly supports the Union, but does it matter much to them, in practice - or as much as Brexit matters? The way that Boris shafted the DUP over the "border in the Irish Sea" suggests not....

I think there is an element if belief in the Tory party now our union is going break up whatever happens politically over the next few years.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Why do people think the SNP really care about the EU?

 

In 2014 it was widely accepted that remaining was the only way I stay in - the SNP wanted to come out of the union whatever the situation, they didn't care about borders, currency or anything, let alone the European Union. I can't believe how many people seem to have forgotten this.

 

There is pretty significant difference policy wise on taxation - just look at how little they increased taxes up North when given the power to do so, they still have the "tartan tories" element to them when it comes to business, surely also a huge clash awaits on oil extraction when facing the green revolution Labour wants?

 

Problem with these is the ONLY goal is independence - they'll be in government intending to cause as much chaos as possible and actively driving a further wedge between England and Scotland. 

I'm not saying the SNP, I'm saying I think the Scots in general would be more likely to vote for independence in the event of Brexit actually happening because they think that's their route back into Europe (not sure I join them in that optimism). If we end up staying in, a vote for independence would appeal to the pro-Remain Scots needed to get the result over the line much, much less.

[Mike Oxlong]

Raab was defending the Twitter account this morning 

 

Too much to expect that he might have said - yes this was a mistake, we’ll speak to those concerned and make sure it doesn’t happen again 

[Bobby Hundreds]

17 hours ago, MattP said:

Nick Cox is actually a nice bloke, been on the Parish council in Glenfield for years

 

Well that's made my decision a lot easier then. 

[David Guiza]

Weird that an ex UKIP member, turned Tory, would be racist - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-antisemitism-israel-jewish-amjad-bashir-general-election-conservatives-a9207846.html

 

Oh, and this lovely chap - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-50468770 

 

What a mess on both sides. 

[RoboFox]

Several polls have indicated that Tory voters are willing to “lose Scotland” if that ensured Brexit happens... I struggle to believe Johnson's claim last night that the Union is "more important". His obsession is with Brexit and pandering to those who want it amongst the electorate in order to gain a majority.

 

Thus, Labour should be bending over backwards to get the SNP on side. There is no point in fighting it. The break up will most likely to happen eventually, so why not leverage the SNP if it means an increased chance of keeping the Tories out? The Brexit vote was the death knell for the Union. England and Wales finished it off in 2016.

 

If I were Scottish, I'd want another referendum too. Westminster's politics are broken, the people in power corrupt and untrustworthy, the parties are a mess, and Brexit has rendered us an international laughing stock.

 

Edited 20 November 2019 by RoboFox

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Several polls have indicated that Tory voters are willing to “lose Scotland” if that ensured Brexit happens... I struggle to believe Johnson's claim last night that the Union is "more important". His obsession is with Brexit and pandering to those who want it amongst the electorate in order to gain a majority.

 

Thus, Labour should be bending over backwards to get the SNP on side. There is no point in fighting it. The break up will most likely to happen eventually, so why not leverage the SNP if it means an increased chance of keeping the Tories out? The Brexit vote was the death knell for the Union. England and Wales finished it off in 2016.

 

If I were Scottish, I'd want another referendum too. Westminster's politics are broken, the people in power corrupt and untrustworthy, the parties are a mess, and Brexit has rendered us an international laughing stock.

The death knell for the Union was devolution (I think polling for Scottish independence was about 10-12% before it), many politicians from Labour and the Tories at the time called it and said it would lead to full independence. It gave the opportunity for the SNP to become a formidable political act, blame all the problems they have on Westminster and all whilst they ran one of the highest deficits in Europe put onto the debt of the nation as a whole. It's weirdly the opposite of the Spanish situation where the GDP per capita in Catalonia is higher.

 

45% of Scots wanted to go in 2014 whilst they didn't have any answers on currency, border, the EU - pretty much anything. Brexit has certainly not helped, but this has been coming a long time.

 

(Around a third of SNP voters actually support Brexit as well, which is probably more than Labour, because they want full independence and not just to transfer powers from Westminster to Brussels)

[Mike Oxlong]

So unappetising are the main two parties that I was toying with voting Lib Dem but the more I see of Jo Swinson the more I dislike her too

 

I’m pretty sure she has a god complex i.e. she thinks God wants to be Jo Swinson 

[Tuna]

1 hour ago, Rusko187 said:

Only 1 man for the job!

 

One of the funniest moments of the 2017 election was Lord Buckethead standing at the Maidenhead count alongside Theresa May who had a face like a smacked arse having realized she'd lost her majority.

[Dirkster the Fox]

So the choice is:

 

Lib Dems - One main policy

Conservatives - Free-Market Capitalists

Labour - Marxism

 

 

 

Edited 20 November 2019 by Dirkster the Fox

[LiberalFox]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

The death knell for the Union was devolution (I think polling for Scottish independence was about 10-12% before it), many politicians from Labour and the Tories at the time called it and said it would lead to full independence. It gave the opportunity for the SNP to become a formidable political act, blame all the problems they have on Westminster and all whilst they ran one of the highest deficits in Europe put onto the debt of the nation as a whole. It's weirdly the opposite of the Spanish situation where the GDP per capita in Catalonia is higher.

 

45% of Scots wanted to go in 2014 whilst they didn't have any answers on currency, border, the EU - pretty much anything. Brexit has certainly not helped, but this has been coming a long time.

 

(Around a third of SNP voters actually support Brexit as well, which is probably more than Labour, because they want full independence and not just to transfer powers from Westminster to Brussels)

Yeah absolutely, devolution was a disaster. 

[twoleftfeet]

I wonder what proportion of the English electorate want independence from not just Brussels but from the union?

[UpTheLeagueFox]

The social media rebranding was unwise and daft from the Tories last night but not a game changer in reality.

 

Before the 2015 election, something like #CameronMustGo or #GetCameronOut trended solidly for a fortnight yet he surprised everyone and got a majority.

I think social media, for all its power in some ways, is often overplayed in terms of importance.

[Mike Oxlong]

Naive in the extreme 

 

The level of crassness is akin to someone posting on here pretending they have a big cock 

[LiberalFox]

38 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

So unappetising are the main two parties that I was toying with voting Lib Dem but the more I see of Jo Swinson the more I dislike her too

 

I’m pretty sure she has a god complex i.e. she thinks God wants to be Jo Swinson 

She's always come across as wanting to be a man.