FT General Election Poll 2019

[Beechey]

 

[David Guiza]

6 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I’m not particularly great on Twitter, I struggle to navigate it understand wtf it’s all about. So unless someone else can break down exactly what is happening on it, I’m at a bit of a loss. 
All I see is people sharing screenshots of messages, that look nothing like the format of a Twitter message. Then the comments confuse me further

 

 I'm with you there. It seems to be up in the air, as even those that were potentially genuine and now being smeared with fakes. It will all come out in the wash i'm sure.

 

As an aside i'm not sure how I feel, morally, about hacking. It's clearly wrong, but in cases where information is obtained that is for the benefit of society, then I sort of feel that the positive outweighs the negative. The problem of course is though that if you accept it then you accept all the crap that comes with it like tabloid phone hacking, z-list celebrity nonsense and the potentially catastrophic impact it can have on individuals. 

 

Sometimes it's hard to be a law abiding wannabe rebel  

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

 I'm with you there. It seems to be up in the air, as even those that were potentially genuine and now being smeared with fakes. It will all come out in the wash i'm sure.

 

As an aside i'm not sure how I feel, morally, about hacking. It's clearly wrong, but in cases where information is obtained that is for the benefit of society, then I sort of feel that the positive outweighs the negative. The problem of course is though that if you accept it then you accept all the crap that comes with it like tabloid phone hacking, z-list celebrity nonsense and the potentially catastrophic impact it can have on individuals. 

 

Sometimes it's hard to be a law abiding wannabe rebel  

Hacking is definitely a grey area, for the greater good, yeah I think it’s ok.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, David Guiza said:

If true and verified the rumours circulating with regard to the Arron Banks leaks seem potentially massive. 

 

Quite a grey area legally so i'll leave anyone to trudge through comments on the internet to see snippets. 

 

 

TBH Banks showed what kind of person he is when he made wisecracks about the death of a 16-year old girl. All of this (should it actually be proven rather than merely alleged) wouldn't be much of a surprise.

[RonnieTodger]

Jesus Christ, imagine being the opposition that hands a majority to Boris Johnson

[Guest MattP]

8 hours ago, Swan Lesta said:

I’ve never been able to see past the Tories walking the election and SNP and Lib Dem’s making major gains on Labour in terms of seats.

I still thought an overall majority was going to be tough as I assumed the Lib Dems and the SNP would take a lot of seats off the Tories, the risk of that appears less now with the BP standing down.

 

7 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Certainly looking pretty bad, you mean.... 

 

Admittedly, polls were similar at this stage before the 2017 election - and tactical voting may yet be important. But Corbyn is no longer a newcomer, tactical voting has its limits - and Labour need something to shift the polls.

Might yet happen - might even happen this evening, though all Boris needs is a dull score draw. At least he's turning up, unlike May who made 2017 a presidential campaign, then hardly appeared.

The Tory vote is surely going to be somewhere between 39-44% - Boris has pretty much done the job of aligning most of the leave vote, Corbyn now has to drag Greens and Lib Dems back whilst somehow holding onto a fair proportion of leave voters in the "heartlands" - I think that might be an impossible job giving he's effectively committed to a second referendum that will result in a Remain vote whatever he promises.

As I said the other day though, what a strange situation we have now where the Labour party cannot win a majority at a General election and bellweather seats like Nuneaton are 1/25 with the bookies to go to the Tories, crazy. Why are Labour members not more angry about this?
 

4 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

Pretty scared of the thought of Priti Patel as home secretary. 

 

3 hours ago, David Guiza said:

Ditto. It's been mentioned in here previously, but she's so totalitarian in her thinking. She seemingly thinks that harsher punishment and taking us back 30/40 years in time in that respect will prevent/reduce all future crime, which time and time again in history and in other nations has proven to be nonsense.

When Labour have Diane Abbott it's a godsend

 

Looking ay any Yougov polling and Patel does quite well - I think most people are more worried about crime occuring than a home secretary being harsh on criminals. She's the natural successor to Boris for me IF she does bring crime down as Home Sec.

 

3 hours ago, purpleronnie said:

Looking at the polls it seems this isn't a Brexit election after all.

Really? I think the polls reflect it, leave vote has joined around the Tories aside from a few clinging to BP or Labour, Remainers now split between all the rest.

@Strokesnails the point for me, Swinson had spent too much time with the peoples vote mob, overturning democratic decisions actually isn't going to be that popular across the whole country no matter how upset people are.

 

I'm actually bemused at what the tactics of the "remainers" were - the first one apperaed to be get it to November after the "do or die" promise and hope the Tory vote went to the Brexit party, did they really think Farage was going to be that stupid? Why did they assume the public would turn on Boris when it was obvious to every leave voter it was the remainers in parliament blocking it aided by an openly partial speaker?

Then to not even bother to even make an attempt at some sort of remain alliance involving the only man who can be PM to stop Brexit? Total tactical car crash and now they are totally reliant on Boris falling apart.

[purpleronnie]

58 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

 

Really? I think the polls reflect it, leave vote has joined around the Tories aside from a few clinging to BP or Labour, Remainers now split between all the rest.

@Strokesnails the point for me, Swinson had spent too much time with the peoples vote mob, overturning democratic decisions actually isn't going to be that popular across the whole country no matter how upset people are.

 

 

Yes really.  But I guess there are remainers who still want to remain but also want the democratic decision implemented and so are turned off my the liberal democrats stance.  The polls also have shown (although they do change lol) that Brexit ranks higher with Tories (56%) and Brexit party (73%) rather than with Liberals (51%) and labour voters (21%)...I guess that's why are pushing the NHS. 

Edited 19 November 2019 by purpleronnie

[RobHawk]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I still thought an overall majority was going to be tough as I assumed the Lib Dems and the SNP would take a lot of seats off the Tories, the risk of that appears less now with the BP standing down.

 

The Tory vote is surely going to be somewhere between 39-44% - Boris has pretty much done the job of aligning most of the leave vote, Corbyn now has to drag Greens and Lib Dems back whilst somehow holding onto a fair proportion of leave voters in the "heartlands" - I think that might be an impossible job giving he's effectively committed to a second referendum that will result in a Remain vote whatever he promises.

As I said the other day though, what a strange situation we have now where the Labour party cannot win a majority at a General election and bellweather seats like Nuneaton are 1/25 with the bookies to go to the Tories, crazy. Why are Labour members not more angry about this?
 

 

When Labour have Diane Abbott it's a godsend

 

Looking ay any Yougov polling and Patel does quite well - I think most people are more worried about crime occuring than a home secretary being harsh on criminals. She's the natural successor to Boris for me IF she does bring crime down as Home Sec.

 

Really? I think the polls reflect it, leave vote has joined around the Tories aside from a few clinging to BP or Labour, Remainers now split between all the rest.

@Strokesnails the point for me, Swinson had spent too much time with the peoples vote mob, overturning democratic decisions actually isn't going to be that popular across the whole country no matter how upset people are.

 

I'm actually bemused at what the tactics of the "remainers" were - the first one apperaed to be get it to November after the "do or die" promise and hope the Tory vote went to the Brexit party, did they really think Farage was going to be that stupid? Why did they assume the public would turn on Boris when it was obvious to every leave voter it was the remainers in parliament blocking it aided by an openly partial speaker?

Then to not even bother to even make an attempt at some sort of remain alliance involving the only man who can be PM to stop Brexit? Total tactical car crash and now they are totally reliant on Boris falling apart.

Because anyone with half a brain (not many people in this country it seems) knows that's bollocks and the hard brexit ERG crew are just as, if not more so to blame

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Because anyone with half a brain (not many people in this country it seems) knows that's bollocks and the hard brexit ERG crew are just as, if not more so to blame

In terms of Boris's deadline every single member of the ERG voted to get Brexit done. That's fact.

 

They refused to go for May's because they thought it was worth the gamble and on current polling they were right to do so.

[RobHawk]

19 minutes ago, MattP said:

In terms of Boris's deadline every single member of the ERG voted to get Brexit done. That's fact.

 

They refused to go for May's because they thought it was worth the gamble and on current polling they were right to do so.

Oh you mean that deal that parliament passed? Bloody remainer parliament passing brexit deals to stop brexit

[StanSP]

If Corbyn loses the election, I presume he'll quit?

 

Who will take over from Labour? Who's touted to be in the best position to do so?

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Oh you mean that deal that parliament passed? Bloody remainer parliament passing brexit deals to stop brexit

Passed at the second reading, then refused on the timetable, whilst bizarrely running out of people speaking on the first day of parliamentary debate on it.

 

It's almost like they are trying to tell us they'd vote for Brexit whilst never actually doing it isn't it? - despite what you think, people aren't stupid.

[Izzy]

Really can't be doing with John McDonnell plans to meddle and interfere with business. 

 

The British Chambers of Commerce said in a statement: "It's one thing to support employee ownership, stronger corporate governance and a transition to a greener economy, which have had positive impacts on many firms. But it would be misguided to impose a rigid, one-size-fits all approach.

"Getting our economy moving requires serious investment in skills, infrastructure and a reduction in business costs. But extensive government interference in ownership and governance could deter investors and damage confidence."

It said the next government must work more closely with businesses, with success depending on "partnership, not diktat".

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

If Corbyn loses the election, I presume he'll quit?

 

Who will take over from Labour? Who's touted to be in the best position to do so?

Don't bet on it, people like Corbyn (and McDonnell) don't often quit things - they have to be forced out. He'll still have his loyalists whatever happens. The question was asked at his launch and crowd shouted "nooooo" at the reporter.

 

He should really have gone after the last elections but he managed to set expectations so low 260 seats got him standing ovations

 

If they Tories only have anything from a working minority to a small majority it's perfectly feasible he just carries on.

 

If he goes I'd imagine McDonnell, Rayner or Long-Bailey is next in. Starmer and Thornberry have a shout but I don't think they are hard left enough to win a vote with the membership. 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Izzy said:

Really can't be doing with John McDonnell plans to meddle and interfere with business. 

 

The British Chambers of Commerce said in a statement: "It's one thing to support employee ownership, stronger corporate governance and a transition to a greener economy, which have had positive impacts on many firms. But it would be misguided to impose a rigid, one-size-fits all approach.

"Getting our economy moving requires serious investment in skills, infrastructure and a reduction in business costs. But extensive government interference in ownership and governance could deter investors and damage confidence."

It said the next government must work more closely with businesses, with success depending on "partnership, not diktat".

And the stuff they have said so far as what they'll admit in public

 

Just imagine the sort of stuff they will be talking about behind closed doors.

[StanSP]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Don't bet on it, people like Corbyn (and McDonnell) don't often quit things - they have to be forced out. He'll still have his loyalists whatever happens. The question was asked at his launch and crowd shouted "nooooo" at the reporter.

 

He should really have gone after the last elections but he managed to set expectations so low 260 seats got him standing ovations

 

If they Tories only have anything from a working minority to a small majority it's perfectly feasible he just carries on.

 

If he goes I'd imagine McDonnell, Rayner or Long-Bailey is next in. Starmer and Thornberry have a shout but I don't think they are hard left enough to win a vote with the membership. 

Thanks. I did wonder that they may hang on if there's not much of a Tory majority.

 

Starmer's always struck me as quite a sensible guy and more of a realist as a politician. Don't really know much about Rayner or Long-Bailey.

[Izzy]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

And the stuff they have said so far as what they'll admit in public

 

Just imagine the sort of stuff they will be talking about behind closed doors.

Honestly, he scares me a bit. 

 

Thinks he knows best and wanting to "rewrite the rules of the UK business model" would piss many, many people off I reckon.

[SecretPro]

If half of the Arron Banks leaks are true, this sh*t be blown right open.

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Thanks. I did wonder that they may hang on if there's not much of a Tory majority.

 

Starmer's always struck me as quite a sensible guy and more of a realist as a politician. Don't really know much about Rayner or Long-Bailey.

Starmer would be the most likely to win an election IMO - he's slightly boring, but his competence radiates among the absolute shitstorm across the rest of the front bench. He's alsonavigated Corbyn through Brexit which is some achievement. 

 

Not only the membership but I think identity politics might also be his downfall - surely the next Labour leader will have to be a woman now no matter how good he is.

[Heathrow fox]

12 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Thanks. I did wonder that they may hang on if there's not much of a Tory majority.

 

Starmer's always struck me as quite a sensible guy and more of a realist as a politician. Don't really know much about Rayner or Long-Bailey.

Rayners actually lived in the real world which makes a nice change.Might be too early for her though.

[Guest MattP]

Does anyone live in Leicester East and follow politics? (Ex-Vaz seat)

 

Seen the campaign cars telling Indians not to vote Labour today and with a message about Kashmir on driving around.

 

The bookies odds are also reasonably close as well for a seat that was absolutely rock solid Labour. (Labour still faves but about 1/5 rather than 1/250)

Edited 19 November 2019 by MattP

[Legend_in_blue]

 

Can somebody please give me a valid reason for bothering to turn up and vote?

 

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Can somebody please give me a valid reason for bothering to turn up and vote?

 

Nick Cox is actually a nice bloke, been on the Parish council in Glenfield for years - he's only standing down there as someone else took Charnwood off him.

 

Costa wins this comfortably though.

[Guest MattP]

23 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

Rayners actually lived in the real world which makes a nice change.Might be too early for her though.

Rayner has a great story, the problem is she really is thick as mince. That can work though these days. 

 

More I think about it Starmer can't win, if Corbyn goes it will be because Labour have been hammered in Leave voting areas in the north - the response to that can't seriously be to appoint a arch-Remainer from London as the next leader.

[Legend_in_blue]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Nick Cox is actually a nice bloke, been on the Parish council in Glenfield for years - he's only standing down there as someone else took Charnwood off him.

 

Costa wins this comfortably though.

 

I'll just sit at home then, watch Brexit get done, and gasp in amazement as the potential of this country is finally unleashed.