FT General Election Poll 2019

[Jimothy]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Sorry to have missed it. Always entertaining to watch a master butcher at work. 

 

I hope to catch Neil slicing up Johnson, providing he doesn't chicken out.

 

I hope he doesn't as I see it as contempt for the democratic process when politicians do that. It's as if football teams were able to just refuse to turn up for any difficult fixtures and still pick up a point.

Obviously, I don't want the Tories to win anyway. But, purely for the sake of democracy, if he does swerve it, I hope that it harms their ratings. Didn't do May much good when she sent Rudd as a substitute in 2017.

 

Normally in elections there's complaints if one party gets more coverage than others, but in this situation, it's the other way round, such is Neil's butchering style, it's almost unfair if he ducks it. I agree with a poster earlier who said the others shouldn't have been broadcast until Neil had ripped all of them to shreds. I assumed they were all filmed a ready to go when I heard they were starting this week.

[SecretPro]

1 hour ago, ScouseFox said:

651 replies and about 650 call him a nonce. what a city. 

 

 

This is gold.

[Guesty]

I imagine if Boris tries to avoid Andrew Neil they'll just empty chair him; which will make him look bad on every level. Would end up being even worse than being ripped apart for 30 mins in person.

 

There are rules that apply to journalists about equal coverage during elections. They might use that as an excuse; plus they'll want to make an example of him. 

 

[StanSP]

This is huge if true. 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Guesty said:

I imagine if Boris tries to avoid Andrew Neil they'll just empty chair him; which will make him look bad on every level. Would end up being even worse than being ripped apart for 30 mins in person.

 

There are rules that apply to journalists about equal coverage during elections. They might use that as an excuse; plus they'll want to make an example of him. 

If he were to turn it down they should actually do that.

 

It would be completely unacceptable for every leader to be scrutinised by Neil except the Prime Minister - I'll make a promise here, if he doesn't do it. I won't vote for him. A coward can't get my vote to lead the country. 

[fuchsntf]

If there was the One time,the UK electorate had a Great chance to change Britains politics, its now...!!

These last 3-4yrs...

Neither conservative nor Labour  with their chosen Leaders nor the Honorary 12 behind them have earned the right to lead the Country into the future...a small turn-out would Show a peoples Lack of confidence..!!! Hopefully also bequieten the sorryfull media agenda campaigns...

Anybody Voting just agree with the hard Political  lies worst Schuldigary ,conceit and Open contempt for the UK electorate ,since before  WWII.

 

There are no further intelligent /Intellectual debate or discussions to have on These Brexit or Election campaigns.....

Oh what have they done to the land,I loved so well....!!!

[Dr The Singh]

2 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

If there was the One time,the UK electorate had a Great chance to change Britains politics, its now...!!

These last 3-4yrs...

Neither conservative nor Labour  with their chosen Leaders nor the Honorary 12 behind them have earned the right to lead the Country into the future...a small turn-out would Show a peoples Lack of confidence..!!! Hopefully also bequieten the sorryfull media agenda campaigns...

Anybody Voting just agree with the hard Political  lies worst Schuldigary ,conceit and Open contempt for the UK electorate ,since before  WWII.

 

There are no further intelligent /Intellectual debate or discussions to have on These Brexit or Election campaigns.....

Oh what have they done to the land,I loved so well....!!!

I agree, BNP and NF offer something the others do not.  Clarity and certainty, you know what you will get for voting for them.  People need to think, if all others are without full of lies, trust the party that is clear.

[Dr The Singh]

25 minutes ago, MattP said:

If he were to turn it down they should actually do that.

 

It would be completely unacceptable for every leader to be scrutinised by Neil except the Prime Minister - I'll make a promise here, if he doesn't do it. I won't vote for him. A coward can't get my vote to lead the country. 

Don't worry Nick Griffin is going to take his place...

[Guest MattP]

Throwback here to the Daily Politics years ago when Labour refused to send someone on - they put Peppa Pig on the seat.

 

They should do the same again if Boris refuses.

 

 

[SecretPro]

[SecretPro]

And why the feck is Laura Kuenssberg advertising/promoting the personal blog of an unelected (and now, apparently unemployed) Dominic Cummings to 1.1 million followers?! 

[fuchsntf]

43 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

I agree, BNP and NF offer something the others do not.  Clarity and certainty, you know what you will get for voting for them.  People need to think, if all others are without full of lies, trust the party that is clear.

Love sarcasm...but These 2 Parties still being given Lip service,proves the point,that the so called leading Member Parties ,have been arrogantly complacent.

And because of it,even if its still low key ,pull in the disenchanted and gives a platform for those unsavoury characteristics within our society...

[Guest Kopfkino]

Best bit about the YouGov MRP is the Lib Dems would only end up with one more seat and none of the defectors would win their seats. Very nice. 

 

Not great for the Conservatives as two weeks is a long time, debatedly already some Labour momentum in the polls and now minds might focus. Incentive now for Lib Dems to do a late deal with Labour, or for its voters to switch otherwise they just accept Brexit is happening. 

[Guest MattP]

The full MRP -  and for all the Labour conspiracy theories this is the model that called the hung parliament last time in spite of the polls.

 

 

[Stadt]

Kuenssberg and Robert Peston are both absolute toss. Marr and Neil are probably the best interviewers/commentators/hosts

[twoleftfeet]

The barnet formula why arent the main parties addressing yhe inequality in government spending on the uk? Why does the government spend more per head of population in wales (+£1317), Scotland (+£1801) and Northern Ireland (+£2110) source https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN04033.

Whats worse if you come from the South East you get a whopping £2893 less spent per head than those living in Northern Ireland.

Cant work why we England havent got free perscriptions already?  Is it racist discrimination by Westminster.

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

And why the feck is Laura Kuenssberg advertising/promoting the personal blog of an unelected (and now, apparently unemployed) Dominic Cummings to 1.1 million followers?! 

Very odd for her to do that.

[The Horse's Mouth]

Who do you reckon is better at demolishing a politician, current Andrew Neil or prime Paxo?

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Throwback here to the Daily Politics years ago when Labour refused to send someone on - they put Peppa Pig on the seat.

 

They should do the same again if Boris refuses.

 

 

as long as Cameron is kept away they'll be safe!

[Guest MattP]

22 minutes ago, MattP said:

The full MRP -  and for all the Labour conspiracy theories this is the model that called the hung parliament last time in spite of the polls.

 

 

Seat change analysis. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

I'll genuinely be upset if Denis Skinner loses his seat.

 

Only the long term political aficionados will realise how completely crazy someone like me saying that is, or how crazy a situation can arise where that can be. This really is a totally mental time in politics. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Andrew Neil shutting down Barry Gardiner ove Labours NHS claims

[Alf Bentley]

9 hours ago, MattP said:

Seat change analysis. 

 

 

 

Extraordinary stuff. Labour is openly saying that the gist of this tallies with their canvassing returns & will lead to a change in campaign strategy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50580699

 

They're saying that they've over-estimated the LD threat in Remain/split seats and under-estimated the willingness of traditional Labour voters to vote Tory in Leave seats.

 

But I can also see why Cummings is nervous that the election is still undecided, despite this apparently big lead. 75% of those prospective Tory gains have a lead of 6% or less. 

Several polls suggest that the gap has closed by about 2-3% in the past few days.....and other factors could yet have a big impact, notably tactical voting (that poll seems to suggest little tactical voting).

 

That would be a dire result for the LDs at least as much as Labour. Up against a chaotic govt & an unpopular opposition, yet they're not improving noticeably on their poor performance in 2015/2017?

I'd expect them to pick up a few more SE seats through tactical voting, but they look too far behind to pick up many in areas like the SW, where they've traditionally been strong. Swinson's position could already be in threat.

 

Extraordinary to see where the Tories are potentially picking up seats, in this poll, and where they're not: imagine them getting a large majority without holding a single seat in Birmingham, Coventry, Leeds, Sheffield, Bristol & very few in London.... They'd basically have an electoral coalition of their Home Counties/shires safe seats.....and Labour's traditional safe seats in strongly Leave-voting areas outside cities where old industries have gone (coal, steel, fishing, textiles, potteries, shipbuilding etc). Labour holding Canterbury & Battersea, but losing Bolsover & Rother Valley? 

 

[Strokes]

22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Extraordinary stuff. Labour is openly saying that the gist of this tallies with their canvassing returns & will lead to a change in campaign strategy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50580699

 

They're saying that they've over-estimated the LD threat in Remain/split seats and under-estimated the willingness of traditional Labour voters to vote Tory in Leave seats.

 

But I can also see why Cummings is nervous that the election is still undecided, despite this apparently big lead. 75% of those prospective Tory gains have a lead of 6% or less. 

Several polls suggest that the gap has closed by about 2-3% in the past few days.....and other factors could yet have a big impact, notably tactical voting (that poll seems to suggest little tactical voting).

 

That would be a dire result for the LDs at least as much as Labour. Up against a chaotic govt & an unpopular opposition, yet they're not improving noticeably on their poor performance in 2015/2017?

I'd expect them to pick up a few more SE seats through tactical voting, but they look too far behind to pick up many in areas like the SW, where they've traditionally been strong. Swinson's position could already be in threat.

 

Extraordinary to see where the Tories are potentially picking up seats, in this poll, and where they're not: imagine them getting a large majority without holding a single seat in Birmingham, Coventry, Leeds, Sheffield, Bristol & very few in London.... They'd basically have an electoral coalition of their Home Counties/shires safe seats.....and Labour's traditional safe seats in strongly Leave-voting areas outside cities where old industries have gone (coal, steel, fishing, textiles, potteries, shipbuilding etc). Labour holding Canterbury & Battersea, but losing Bolsover & Rother Valley? 

 

It’s a trend that’s been happening over the last few elections but this is one hell of a shift now.

I know diehard tories that are voting Labour and by all accounts it’s similar in reverse too.

 

Brexit has really shifted peoples political red lines.

[Alf Bentley]

31 minutes ago, Strokes said:

It’s a trend that’s been happening over the last few elections but this is one hell of a shift now.

I know diehard tories that are voting Labour and by all accounts it’s similar in reverse too.

 

Brexit has really shifted peoples political red lines.

 

Yep.

 

But will it change much for defecting Labour Leave voters in deindustrialised areas if Brexit goes ahead as planned......even if it's quick and successful (neither of which I expect)?

 

If Britain "takes back control", will it change much, say, for someone whose Dad was a miner/fisherman but who can't get secure, decent-paid work in his/her increasingly shabby local area?

What will happen then, if little changes? Their Leave votes were largely about THEM wanting to "take back control" of their lives, weren't they? I'm not sure Brussels, or even Corbyn, means a lot more to someone in Bolsover than to someone in Brum. Massive, possibly impossible task ahead for the Tories if they win this - or massive disillusionment for some voters...

 

Of course, there'd be an opportunity for a Boris Govt to address such problems......but turning around such structural problems wouldn't be easy or cheap, even for a govt determined to do so (and I obviously doubt the Tories in that regard).

Achieving such a massive task at a time when there could be a lot less public money around would be even more difficult.....

 

Anyway, just a poll at this stage - and one where small shifts could produce a big shift in the overall outcome - though I assume it is a fairly accurate snapshot of where we stand as of today. Who knows whether we'll be in the same place in a fortnight....

 

Incidentally, according to that poll, 53% are set to vote for parties supporting a 2nd referendum v. 46% for parties supporting Boris' deal or something harder (though I appreciate that some Leave voters will vote Lab & some Remainers Tory).