FT General Election Poll 2019

[ScouseFox]

“rugby league towns” did me when i watched the news earlier, there’s about 12 people in the country who like rugby league 

[Soup]

21 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

More importantly, get informed and vote. 

 

If you feel the need to vote single issue, whether it be pro or anti-Brexit, then so be it, but at least educate yourself on whose standing and their party's manifesto, try and attend local candidate's debates or live television debates if you can, or use resources available online. 

 

This isn't just another vote on Brexit (I know it's importance in your case VB so I understand if it's your priority personally) it's a vote on potentially the next five years of governance so take time informing yourself if you're not already.

Although I've not voted in ages (apart from the referendum) I have taken more of an interest in politics in the last few year's. I honestly feel as informed as I'll ever be. Trouble is they all leave me cold. 

 

Edited 31 October 2019 by Soup

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, ScouseFox said:

“rugby league towns” did me when i watched the news earlier, there’s about 12 people in the country who like rugby league 

Just stop talking in these politics threads, please

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

Simple is not the term I would use. I cannot see why a leaver will vote for them on the basis of that policy given that the EU are hardly going to offer a decent deal knowing that Labour will put it to another referendum. 

 

The EU would negotiate in its own interests, of course. But its best interests are served by a closer relationship and closer alignment, which is what Labour would be seeking. EU and Labour interests are quite closely aligned.

The EU wouldn't be stupid enough to deliberately negotiate a deal that was really bad for them and us, just to try to get a Remain outcome....because they'd know that we might vote Leave again.

 

I'm sure that policy wouldn't appeal to a Hard Brexit voter - if that was their only or main criterion when voting in the next election.

But many Leave voters might vote Labour for other reasons - other tax/spend policies, self-interest, tradition - if Brexit wasn't the be-all and end-all for them.

There are also Leave voters who'd be happy with a Brexit that kept close trading ties, good employment protection etc. Not to mention the 70%+ of the Lab vote that is Remain - and possible defectors from other Remain parties.

 

You might not like that policy. I can understand that. How you can say it's not simple is beyond me.

[Footballwipe]

57 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

 Good to see - providing of course they actually register and use their vote. 

 

Regardless of their vote, nobody wants to see a poor turnout as it will lead to even more uncertainty. 

I don't want to crap on these figures, because they might well be genuine and encouraging as people get invested in politics (and many other variables), but registering to vote is only the basis.

 

Once they've registered it goes to the local returning Council. A lot of the time many of these people are already registered, and have done the "register to vote" because there's no context around the circumstances in which you need to vote (if that makes sense, anyway.) People see the REGISTER TO VOTE headline and fill it in, either to make sure or "just in case"

 

Like said, if people are genuinely registering for the first time that's fantastic, but the filtered figures without duplicates, which won't be available unless you went to every local authority, is the important number.

[Alf Bentley]

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

On the FT polling figures so far - Which again shows how mental FPTP can be.

Some big hitters losing seats as well. Jess Phillips, Caroline Lucas, John Redwood, Zac Goldsmith, Emily Thornberry,

National Prediction: Conservative short 20 of majority

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	31.0%	37	49	-12	306
LAB	41.0%	262	23.0%	0	69	-69	193
LIB	7.6%	12	29.0%	74	0	+74	86
Brexit	0.0%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.7%	1	9.0%	1	0	+1	2
SNP	3.1%	35	3.0%	7	1	+6	41
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.7%	1	1	+0	4
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	2.3%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

 

Is that FT as in Foxes Talk or Financial Times? 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

Is that FT as in Foxes Talk or Financial Times? 

Foxestalk.

[Alf Bentley]

Just now, MattP said:

Foxestalk.

 

How did you calculate it down to number of seats and individual seat results & SNP/Plaid? Have you got an interactive database to put figures in?

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

How did you calculate it down to number of seats and individual seat results & SNP/Plaid? Have you got an interactive database to put figures in?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

Click the prediction tab at the top.

[Salisbury Fox]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

You might not like that policy. I can understand that. How you can say it's not simple is beyond me.

Well we will see won’t we. 

[David Guiza]

3 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

I don't want to crap on these figures, because they might well be genuine and encouraging as people get invested in politics (and many other variables), but registering to vote is only the basis.

 

Once they've registered it goes to the local returning Council. A lot of the time many of these people are already registered, and have done the "register to vote" because there's no context around the circumstances in which you need to vote (if that makes sense, anyway.) People see the REGISTER TO VOTE headline and fill it in, either to make sure or "just in case"

 

Like said, if people are genuinely registering for the first time that's fantastic, but the filtered figures without duplicates, which won't be available unless you went to every local authority, is the important number.

Yeah, totally. I imagine 18-34 are perhaps the most likely to need to register to vote due to moving around a lot more than the older generations and just never having registered in the first place, but there's certainly repeats in there and people who will register and then not bother etc.

 

I'll be 28 when the election comes around and this will be my 4th different Polling Station, but only second different constituency, I've used so I'm excited to see what the new one has to offer . 

[Christoph]

I've been a Labour voter most of my life. They need to get rid of Corbyn ASAP. The bloke clearly has his heart in the right place and seems far more honest than the rest of the politicians but he's got no chance of winning so why he is even leading. Need someone who will appeal to a more conservative base like Andy Burnham etc. Not ideal as it will probably be more conservative lite stuff but **** me 4 more years of conservatives is too much 

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

Well we will see won’t we. 

 

We will see what the result is. We might not see whether the Lab policy is simple or not.

- If Lab politicians don't learn to express it in a simple way, it'll never seem simple

- Lots of folk will vote against them because they don't like Corbyn, regardless of how simple or not the Brexit policy is. 

[Facecloth]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

On the FT polling figures so far - Which again shows how mental FPTP can be.

Some big hitters losing seats as well. Jess Phillips, Caroline Lucas, John Redwood, Zac Goldsmith, Emily Thornberry,

National Prediction: Conservative short 20 of majority

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	31.0%	37	49	-12	306
LAB	41.0%	262	23.0%	0	69	-69	193
LIB	7.6%	12	29.0%	74	0	+74	86
Brexit	0.0%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.7%	1	9.0%	1	0	+1	2
SNP	3.1%	35	3.0%	7	1	+6	41
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.7%	1	1	+0	4
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	2.3%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

How does it work out Lucas will lose her seat, but the table state the Greens will lose no seats?

[Izzy]

58 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

 

I'll be 28 when the election comes around 

Crikey. Had you down for at least mid forties 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

How does it work out Lucas will lose her seat, but the table state the Greens will lose no seats?

She lost it to the Lib Dems on that polling but I don't know where the other two come from.

 

Are there a couple of close Labour/Green marginals? I'm sure the Greens target seats were in Bristol and Norwich from last election so could be winning them on a collapsing Labour vote.

 

Edit: Yeah that's a cock up, it definitely says Lucas as well - put the numbers in and you'll see.

Edited 30 October 2019 by MattP

[Facecloth]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

She lost it to the Lib Dems on that polling but I don't know where the other two come from.

 

Are there a couple of close Labour/Green marginals? I'm sure the Greens target seats were in Bristol and Norwich from last election so could be winning them on a collapsing Labour vote.

 

Edit: Yeah that's a cock up, it definitely says Lucas as well - put the numbers in and you'll see.

Yeah, I just thought it would read lose 1, gain 2. Obviously a glitch.

[Lionator]

I'll be voting for whoever on the centre/left is most likely to get rid of the dreadful Nicky Morgan from my local area. 

[The Guvnor]

As much as posters try to give Labours Brexit plan credibility, how the hell is that attractive to a leave voter, I agree in the respect that I could not see it being anything but simple to get a deal which included staying in the CU and SM, why wouldn't it be? then to have the other option as remain is pretty much an analogy as someone used earlier, the choice between a dog or cat sh#t sandwich.

If I'm wrong then please other leave voters on FT tell me I'm wrong, I'm always open to persuasion.

 

PS I'm never wrong, ask my wife. 

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

As much as posters try to give Labours Brexit plan credibility, how the hell is that attractive to a leave voter, I agree in the respect that I could not see it being anything but simple to get a deal which included staying in the CU and SM, why wouldn't it be? then to have the other option as remain is pretty much an analogy as someone used earlier, the choice between a dog or cat sh#t sandwich.

If I'm wrong then please other leave voters on FT tell me I'm wrong, I'm always open to persuasion.

 

PS I'm never wrong, ask my wife. 

 

If someone wants Hard Brexit and that's their main/only consideration, they probably won't be attracted to vote Labour. But not all Leave voters want a Hard Brexit - and not all Leave voters will have Brexit as their main/only consideration.

Some will vote Labour because they always have or because they hate the Tories/Boris or because they like Labour's policies on public spending/investment or whatever.

 

Same applies on the other side. There'll be plenty of Remain voters who'll vote Tory because they always have or because they love Boris or hate Corbyn, or trust the Tories on the economy or to cut taxes or like Boris' spending policies etc. 

[The Horse's Mouth]

there's **** all point in me voting tbf, it'll be another tory win here

[Lionator]

22 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

As much as posters try to give Labours Brexit plan credibility, how the hell is that attractive to a leave voter, I agree in the respect that I could not see it being anything but simple to get a deal which included staying in the CU and SM, why wouldn't it be? then to have the other option as remain is pretty much an analogy as someone used earlier, the choice between a dog or cat sh#t sandwich.

If I'm wrong then please other leave voters on FT tell me I'm wrong, I'm always open to persuasion.

 

PS I'm never wrong, ask my wife. 

It isn't attractive, however it's Labours job to show that there are things out there which are more important than Brexit, which there are, however I'm not confident they can do that. 

[RoboFox]

12 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

there's **** all point in me voting tbf, it'll be another tory win here

Get out there, man.

 

If everyone thought like that we'd never see any change. 

[Wolfox]

20 hours ago, MattP said:

Anonymous voting as per.

Nonsense… reveal the names and route out all the Tories on here!

[The Guvnor]

28 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

If someone wants Hard Brexit and that's their main/only consideration, they probably won't be attracted to vote Labour. But not all Leave voters want a Hard Brexit - and not all Leave voters will have Brexit as their main/only consideration.

Some will vote Labour because they always have or because they hate the Tories/Boris or because they like Labour's policies on public spending/investment or whatever.

 

Same applies on the other side. There'll be plenty of Remain voters who'll vote Tory because they always have or because they love Boris or hate Corbyn, or trust the Tories on the economy or to cut taxes or like Boris' spending policies etc. 

I agree with you entirely on this summation.

I was talking specifically about Labours Brexit plans, not their general manifesto.

Of course Brexit is not the be all and end all to all voters, however it will form a massive part of the election no matter how any of the parties try to play it down and

trying to placate labour leave voters with this option is a head scratcher for me.