Getting brexit done!

[Guest MattP]

Varadkar's slavish loyalty to the EU over the last couple of years repaid by being shat on.

 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-budget-varadkar-says-ireland-willing-to-pay-more-but-not-at-farmers-expense-1.4181125?mode=amp

 

Never saw that coming.

[urban.spaceman]

5 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

We used to dream of 2 pounds an hour. I had to go down dryer pit working for a farmer for 50 pence an hour. Loads of dust from the corn and no face masks.

Luxury. We used to work down the mill for tuppence an hour AND pay the mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our dad would slice us in two with a bread knife.

[Beechey]

Fascinating developments. After all the bluster about dynamic alignment, the EU has not really included that in its trade mandate. In its place is a commitment by the UK to not lower standards than exist in UK law at the end of the transition period. This is for all major LPF (level playing field) areas, such as (some) tax areas, environment standards, labour standards, social protections, competitiveness and state aid. However, there are mentions of “corresponding high standards over time”, which I’m sure was due to France’s pressure. This means UK legislation will be measured against EU equivalents (see "with Union standards as a reference point") to find whether they're close enough in standards to continue zero quota, zero tariffs. UK will definitely oppose this.

 

Given Boris Johnson’s speech about the UK not lowering standards, this seems like a little win for those of us who want to get a deal - purely depending on whether you follow mentions of corresponding standards, or you follow the subsections points about non-regression. Given there's no explicit mention of dynamic alignment, which would have made the proposal dead on arrival.

 

 

Edited 25 February 2020 by Beechey

[Beechey]

As a negative, this is apparently a red line for the UK, which is the EUs wish for any negotiation here to exclude Gibraltar. UK wants to negotiate for them as well.

 

Galileo usage remains mostly unchanged from the draft.

 

 

Edited 25 February 2020 by Beechey

[Finnaldo]

Post-Brexit talks: UK prepared to walk away in June if no progress

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51650961

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Post-Brexit talks: UK prepared to walk away in June if no progress

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51650961

And this time no party of Grieve, Cable and Starmer going over to Europe to tell them to keep extending and extending as our parliament won't allow it.

 

Anyway this is what Brexiteers wanted all along, a genuine walkway position there in order to negotiate with the strongest possible hand, great shame we had to go through two years of nonsense and two elections to get to it.

 

FWIW I think we get a deal and we get one that suits both sides, as I've always said - no one benefits from no deal and we all know that.

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

And this time no party of Grieve, Cable and Starmer going over to Europe to tell them to keep extending and extending as our parliament won't allow it.

 

Anyway this is what Brexiteers wanted all along, a genuine walkway position there in order to negotiate with the strongest possible hand, great shame we had to go through two years of nonsense and two elections to get to it.

 

FWIW I think we get a deal and we get one that suits both sides, as I've always said - no one benefits from no deal and we all know that.

I understand your point regarding pre-election candidates muddying the water, but how much do you think this is affected by the budgetary crisis the EU is facing? Possible the Gov smells blood and is pressing as quick a deadline as possible to put pressure on the EU establishment. Very risky but a pretty smart move given the situation, even if it’s by chance it could very much improve the negotiation position.  

[Alf Bentley]

Stephen Bush explains why he thinks No Deal on trade looks very likely. I'm not sure whether he's anticipating that there'd be no deal on anything, beyond the WA? Presumably No Deal on trade would also mean No Deal on services and fishing, but would it also mean No Deal on security cooperation and other issues? Also, would a UK refusal to institute customs checks between GB and NI lead to a legal challenge, as that is a legal commitment under the WA? As I understand it, that doesn't apply to either the UK rejection of "level playing field" alignment or the EU offering a "Canada deal" but then wanting the UK to align more than Canada - as neither issue was included in the legally-binding WA.....

 

"Boris Johnson will formally abandon his commitment to a level playing field with the European Union after Brexit, the Telegraph reports.  The only real genuine victory that Boris Johnson enjoyed in the withdrawal agreement talks was in the moving of the sections committing the United Kingdom to signing up to a stringent set of shared rules and obligations from the legally-binding withdrawal agreement to the political declaration, which has no legal force. One reason why the European Commission and member states were relatively relaxed about that is that they thought that they would be able to use the next stage of the talks to force the level playing field back into the legal body of the free trade agreement.  What's more significant is the government hinting that it won't be building the required infrastructure for customs checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain - because that is a legally-binding part of the withdrawal agreement. In reality, all we're seeing at this stage is a reiteration of the central division in the free trade agreement - the British government thinks that it ought to be able to secure the same level of market access as Canada for the same level of regulatory alignment, the European Commission and member states think that because the UK is larger and nearer it needs to have a stricter and tighter degree of regulatory alignment for the same deal.  The most significant development isn't at the British end - it is the changes made to the European Commission's mandate by member states. There are significant changes between the draft and they all go one way: to toughen rather than loosen the level of regulatory alignment between the EU and UK in any trade deal. All just posturing at the start of a negotiation? Well, a little bit. The two negotiating partners start much closer together than Theresa May and the Commission did. But that final gap may be much more difficult to bridge. Boris Johnson's preferred end state has big implications for the level of EU-UK trade anyway - which means that at the EU end, the incentive to soften position is not particularly large. There is not a great prize on offer, economically speaking.  And at the British end, that in many ways, the negotiation is a choice between a trading agreement that looks like no deal that begins with a degree of disruption and chaos at the British end, or a trading agreement that ends up looking like no deal minus the disruption at the start.  That, too, means that the government may well conclude that with four years between 31 December and the next election, the incentive to blink is pretty small for them, too. The prospects for no deal remain very high".

[Innovindil]

Just now, Finnaldo said:

I understand your point regarding pre-election candidates muddying the water, but how much do you think this is affected by the budgetary crisis the EU is facing? Possible the Gov smells blood and is pressing as quick a deadline as possible to put pressure on the EU establishment. Very risky but a pretty smart move given the situation, even if it’s by chance it could very much improve the negotiation position.  

Wouldn't call the drama around the eu budget a crisis tbf, they usually take a few rounds of dummy spitting to get done. 

 

But with the global economy still being meh and the threat of this virus still hanging around it's probably the best time we're gonna get to go all in. 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Finnaldo said:

I understand your point regarding pre-election candidates muddying the water, but how much do you think this is affected by the budgetary crisis the EU is facing? Possible the Gov smells blood and is pressing as quick a deadline as possible to put pressure on the EU establishment. Very risky but a pretty smart move given the situation, even if it’s by chance it could very much improve the negotiation position.  

Possible, but I would imagine they intended to be aggressive all along, even more so given the size of the majority he got.

 

I still don't think we have any desire to walk away, but we've got to use everything we can to get the best deal possible. 

 

No idea if you watched the BBC doc on Europe LK did but it's well worth a catch up on the Iplayer - If anything the people they spoke to are more pissed off with the Remainers now than the Brexiteers, for two years they seemed to be hinting to leave it to them and they'll make sure the vote is reversed - then they end up after to go to the next stage of negotiations in a weaker position than they were with Theresa May. I can understand them being pissed.

[Finnaldo]

11 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Wouldn't call the drama around the eu budget a crisis tbf, they usually take a few rounds of dummy spitting to get done. 

 

But with the global economy still being meh and the threat of this virus still hanging around it's probably the best time we're gonna get to go all in. 

I appreciate it most likely won’t be the architect of the EU’s downfall, but it feels as though this is more divisive than previous and a level of disharmony and discontent may well make the EU consider a deal as a morale booster if things get sticky.

 

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

Possible, but I would imagine they intended to be aggressive all along, even more so given the size of the majority he got.

 

I still don't think we have any desire to walk away, but we've got to use everything we can to get the best deal possible. 

 

No idea if you watched the BBC doc on Europe LK did but it's well worth a catch up on the Iplayer - If anything the people they spoke to are more pissed off with the Remainers now than the Brexiteers, for two years they seemed to be hinting to leave it to them and they'll make sure the vote is reversed - then they end up after to go to the next stage of negotiations in a weaker position than they were with Theresa May. I can understand them being pissed.

 

I haven’t seen it, I’ll have to give it a watch to be honest. I’m sure you’re aware I’m a Remainer and I appreciate fighting to keep certain privileges if possible, but I’ve never been a fan of obstruction and a lot of the hardliners have caused many of their own issues. 
 

As far as I’m concerned, Brexit is happening regardless of whether you like it or not and the best thing for it is to be optimistic about the outcome and be as constructive as you can in criticism. 

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

I haven’t seen it, I’ll have to give it a watch to be honest. I’m sure you’re aware I’m a Remainer and I appreciate fighting to keep certain privileges if possible, but I’ve never been a fan of obstruction and a lot of the hardliners have caused many of their own issues. 
 

As far as I’m concerned, Brexit is happening regardless of whether you like it or not and the best thing for it is to be optimistic about the outcome and be as constructive as you can in criticism. 

Oh I know - I've actually got a lot of respect for the Remainers who have always fought for the best sort of Brexit possible or a softer Brexit but never made the intention of reversing the decision. It's the People's Vote mob that were unbearable and ironically it was them who probably did more to deliver the Boris majority than most.

 

It was very good, I can imagine people like Caroline Lucas, David Lammy and Jo Swinson marching into meetings with Guy Verhofstadt and telling them it's all under control and within a few months we'll be voting to Remain again, I'd loved to have seen the faces when the exit poll dropped.

 

The probably trusted these people to get the job done and instead they've completely ****ed it up. 

 

Whilst I'm on recommendations the Iain Dale podcast episode with Ken Clarke from last week is brilliant listening for anyone with an interest in politics - two hours in front of a live audience covering everything from the Thatcher years to Brexit.

Edited 27 February 2020 by MattP

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

 

But with the global economy still being meh and the threat of this virus still hanging around it's probably the best time we're gonna get to go all in. 

 

That might be true, but the EU could take the same attitude, couldn't it? That the global economy and virus make it a good time for the EU to demand UK concessions.

 

Those other factors just make the stakes on the poker table that much greater. It then comes down to who's holding the stronger hand and who has more incentive to make concessions, if anyone.

A much higher proportion of UK trade is with the EU than vice-versa, meaning the UK would take a much bigger economic hit.....but what if the British people are happy to take a big economic hit for the political "benefits" of "taking back control"?

All looks very lose-lose to me.....

 

If Stephen Bush is right (my previous post), it may be that neither side has much to gain from a deal. If the UK is determined to avoid any alignment and the EU is determined not to offer a close trading relationship without significant alignment (due to the risk of a large neighbour potentially undercutting the EU Single Market via state aid and/or employment/environmental/social deregulation), then we're already looking at a high-friction trade relationship.

 

So, as Bush suggests, is there then much difference between a deal allowing for a high-friction trade relationship (for which one side or both would have to make major compromises) and No Deal / trade on WTO terms?

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Finnaldo said:

Post-Brexit talks: UK prepared to walk away in June if no progress

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51650961

We've gone from:

Exact same benefits to

Unique economic partnership to

Canada + to

Canada to

Nothing

 

So will the country default to WTO tariffs, which will then be eliminated to mitigate impact on consumers, meaning we'll import French cheeses with no tariffs while British exporters have to deal with them? Everything about this is a total farce.

 

[Magictv]

Unfortunate news for those in Merthyr

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51592564

[Beechey]

UK's opening position is one of non-regression on the level playing field, rather than any kind of alignment. So the UK government is happy to legislate that it will not water down legislation on labour and environmental standards, but refuses any alignment or conformity with the EU on tax matters, however the document does say the UK is willing to agree commitments on the principles of good tax governance. Not much that I can find about state aid after a very quick look.

 

 

 

Edited 27 February 2020 by Beechey

[oxford blue]

6 hours ago, bovril said:

 

So will the country default to WTO tariffs, which will then be eliminated to mitigate impact on consumers, meaning we'll import French cheeses with no tariffs while British exporters have to deal with them? Everything about this is a total farce.

 

Is this statement factually based? I guess it is your own opinion.

It strikes me the UK are taking a hard line as a ploy to ensure EU take negotiations seriously otherwise there is likely to be a strategy to ensure they drag on with intention of UK extending deadline. Given their budget arguments the EU must welcome the UK contributions. ) 

[Spudulike]

Sounds like the UK negotiators are relishing announcing 'insufficient progress' as we approach June. Wasn't that a favourite phrase used in time gone by 

[fleckneymike]

On 27/02/2020 at 12:26, Innovindil said:

Wouldn't call the drama around the eu budget a crisis tbf, they usually take a few rounds of dummy spitting to get done. 

 

But with the global economy still being meh and the threat of this virus still hanging around it's probably the best time we're gonna get to go all in. 

You do realise that we too are part of the globe that make up the global economy?

[fleckneymike]

My favourite twist is that we are now no longer allowed to say No Deal. Instead we are being told we will get an Australian style EU deal, which considering the fact that Australia has no deal with the EU means.

 

And I am sure it has been posted before but man alive the ****wittery of this is sadly not surprising.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leaked-brexit-memo-no-deal_uk_5e57a8c1c5b66137fb5e82bc?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLzR4Z3djNHpvUFY_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJMsIVW1Pi4etZBQ4-LeRmyFZJgOOP2iEQE6GUg5jexlTdIpR2wgBMtA5GS5QDw-RZq1rbEFrhWtTdx0OvuUh0PI0ovI2Q0X6VSkTREKQ78AeRZZGrtIRjVtKFIzvVDUU0H49mxA1GlpIGuPavnLrxbnspTd6WnZ2axnc4vXzu2q

Edited 29 February 2020 by fleckneymike

[Innovindil]

13 minutes ago, fleckneymike said:

You do realise that we too are part of the globe that make up the global economy?

[Kopfkino]

The problem with it all at the moment is both sides talking at each other and playing Billy Big bollocks through the media and of course the media is all too happy to oblige. Just get on with negotiating (LPF nonsense will sort itself out quite easily when they actually bother to talk to each other) and come December you'll have some kind of an agreement that will evolve and be added to. 

 

 

[WigstonWanderer]

33 minutes ago, fleckneymike said:

My favourite twist is that we are now no longer allowed to say No Deal. Instead we are being told we will get an Australian style EU deal, which considering the fact that Australia has no deal with the EU means.

 

And I am sure it has been posted before but man alive the ****wittery of this is sadly not surprising.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leaked-brexit-memo-no-deal_uk_5e57a8c1c5b66137fb5e82bc?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLzR4Z3djNHpvUFY_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJMsIVW1Pi4etZBQ4-LeRmyFZJgOOP2iEQE6GUg5jexlTdIpR2wgBMtA5GS5QDw-RZq1rbEFrhWtTdx0OvuUh0PI0ovI2Q0X6VSkTREKQ78AeRZZGrtIRjVtKFIzvVDUU0H49mxA1GlpIGuPavnLrxbnspTd6WnZ2axnc4vXzu2q

So obviously a Cummings edict banning the phrase “no deal”. 

[Strokes]

9 hours ago, fleckneymike said:

My favourite twist is that we are now no longer allowed to say No Deal. Instead we are being told we will get an Australian style EU deal, which considering the fact that Australia has no deal with the EU means.

 

And I am sure it has been posted before but man alive the ****wittery of this is sadly not surprising.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leaked-brexit-memo-no-deal_uk_5e57a8c1c5b66137fb5e82bc?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLzR4Z3djNHpvUFY_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJMsIVW1Pi4etZBQ4-LeRmyFZJgOOP2iEQE6GUg5jexlTdIpR2wgBMtA5GS5QDw-RZq1rbEFrhWtTdx0OvuUh0PI0ovI2Q0X6VSkTREKQ78AeRZZGrtIRjVtKFIzvVDUU0H49mxA1GlpIGuPavnLrxbnspTd6WnZ2axnc4vXzu2q

Yeah it reminds me of when remainers decided the people’s vote was a better term than 2nd referendum.

[Alf Bentley]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51698768

"Boris Johnson has promised to "drive a hard bargain" as he set out the UK's negotiating position for a post-Brexit free trade deal with the US".

 

About time I had a pretext for posting some more Half Man Half Biscuit....I can almost imagine Trump singing this when the UK negotiators turn up. 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/02/uk-says-it-will-not-lower-standards-to-strike-trade-deal-with-trump

 

"The British economy would be at most 0.16% larger by the middle of the next decade under a comprehensive trade deal with the US, the government has admitted, laying bare the limited benefits from striking an agreement with Donald Trump. In a document published by Liz Truss’s Department for International Trade designed to kick-start post-Brexit trade talks with the Trump White House, the government said the British economy stood to benefit from an “ambitious and comprehensive” trade deal worth a fraction of GDP, equivalent to £3.4bn after 15 years.  Prompting warnings from economists that the benefits would be far outstripped by the losses from crashing out of the EU, the official analysis also showed that a more limited trade deal with the US would deliver benefits to the UK economy worth just 0.07% by the middle of the 2030s, or about £1.4bn. The government had previously estimated the economy would be as much as 7.6% smaller should Britain leave the EU without a deal, and about 4.9% smaller under Boris Johnson’s preferred Canada-style agreement [which we won't get without agreeing the 'level playing field' that Boris rejects]".

 

Yes, I know,  business, jobs, incomes, tax revenues and public services mean nothing compared to "taking back control", controlling migrants and controlling fish (even if you no longer have a market for it)....