Getting brexit done!

[Jon the Hat]

On 27/02/2020 at 13:34, bovril said:

We've gone from:

Exact same benefits to

Unique economic partnership to

Canada + to

Canada to

Nothing

 

So will the country default to WTO tariffs, which will then be eliminated to mitigate impact on consumers, meaning we'll import French cheeses with no tariffs while British exporters have to deal with them? Everything about this is a total farce.

 

Given the drop in the pound already makes our products lower than the likley tarrifs it probably isn't that big a deal to be honest.

[Voll Blau]

On 01/03/2020 at 08:28, Strokes said:

Yeah it reminds me of when remainers decided the people’s vote was a better term than 2nd referendum.

I always despised that phrase and think it lost those who pushed for it a hell of a lot of goodwill. Don't pull the wool over folks' eyes FFS, it is what it is.

 

In fact, I'm not a fan of "The People's" anything, like Everton claiming to be "The People's Club". 

 

Only time I've ever been fine with it was The Rock calling himself The People's Champion in wrestling.

[Alf Bentley]

25 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Given the drop in the pound already makes our products lower than the likley tarrifs it probably isn't that big a deal to be honest.

 

True for some tariffs, where they are low. Not true for others, where tariffs are high - was it lamb where the tariff is 80% (some or other meat product, anyway)?

Most experts seem more concerned about non-tariff barriers disrupting trade, anyway.

 

Once upon a time, causing the devaluation of your national currency was viewed as shameful and liable to make your people poorer due to more expensive imports etc.

It was before my time, but wasn't a devaluation largely blamed for Harold Wilson's election defeat in 1970....

 

 

[davieG]

27 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

True for some tariffs, where they are low. Not true for others, where tariffs are high - was it lamb where the tariff is 80% (some or other meat product, anyway)?

Most experts seem more concerned about non-tariff barriers disrupting trade, anyway.

 

Once upon a time, causing the devaluation of your national currency was viewed as shameful and liable to make your people poorer due to more expensive imports etc.

It was before my time, but wasn't a devaluation largely blamed for Harold Wilson's election defeat in 1970....

 

 

The infamous pound in your pocket quote

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-business/economy-economy/pound-in-your-pocket-devaluation-50-years-on/

[bovril]

Let's Trade on WTO Terms and Hope a Drop in the Pound Keeps Our Exports Competitive would make quite the slogan. Someone call Dom. 

[Innovindil]

42 minutes ago, bovril said:

Let's Trade on WTO Terms and Hope a Drop in the Pound Keeps Our Exports Competitive would make quite the slogan. Someone call Dom. 

Too long for a bus I fear. 

[bovril]

Just now, Innovindil said:

Too long for a bus I fear. 

Plane it is then. 

[Strokes]

2 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

I always despised that phrase and think it lost those who pushed for it a hell of a lot of goodwill. Don't pull the wool over folks' eyes FFS, it is what it is.

 

In fact, I'm not a fan of "The People's" anything, like Everton claiming to be "The People's Club". 

 

Only time I've ever been fine with it was The Rock calling himself The People's Champion in wrestling.

Don’t forget the people’s elbow 

[Alf Bentley]

There seem to have been quite a lot of "People's Champions": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_People's_Champion

 

I remembered Hurricane Higgins calling himself that, but didn't know that Muhammad Ali even preceded him.

 

Then there was the cringe-inducing "she was the People's Princess" - Blair after the death of Diana.

Possibly Blair's second-most cringe-inducing use of populist bullshit soundbites, behind "Today is not a day for soundbites, we can leave those at home, but I feel the hand of history on our shoulder..." (about the Good Friday Agreement) 

[Carl the Llama]

Yep this devaluation of the pound is great for the UK.  Everyone knows we stayed out of the Euro because we were worried about having a currency that is just too damn strong.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

4 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

I'm not a fan of "The People's" anything, like Everton claiming to be "The People's Club". 

I would say that FoxesTalk is "The People's Forum" for all LCFC fans.

[Alf Bentley]

"I'm a people person, Reggie" (Tom, Reginald Perrin's son-in-law, 1970s)......Leonard Rossiter & co were trailblazers for the modern political trends of populism and narcissism.

[Toddybad]

So this government predict that a trade deal with the US will bring in £15bn over 15 years. Over that whole period. That's what we're giving up on the single market for. Embarrassing.

[WigstonWanderer]

5 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

So this government predict that a trade deal with the US will bring in £15bn over 15 years. Over that whole period. That's what we're giving up on the single market for. Embarrassing.

Yes, but blue passports....

[Phube]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Yes, but blue passports....

 

And the special 50p!

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Toddybad said:

So this government predict that a trade deal with the US will bring in £15bn over 15 years. Over that whole period. That's what we're giving up on the single market for. Embarrassing.

Source?

 

We aren't giving up on the single market at all - we are aiming for a comprehensive FTA with it.

[Toddybad]

20 minutes ago, MattP said:

Source?

 

We aren't giving up on the single market at all - we are aiming for a comprehensive FTA with it.

It's in here. The UK government position document setting out our negotiating position. It states that, dependent on the exact terms of a final deal, it's benefits will be worth between 0.07% and 0.16% of GDP.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869592/UK_US_FTA_negotiations.pdf

 

Of course, the government's other position is that the final EU deal - if it gets one - will harm the UK economy by many times that amount.

Edited 3 March 2020 by Toddybad

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, MattP said:

Source?

 

We aren't giving up on the single market at all - we are aiming for a comprehensive FTA with it.

Australia style...

[Guest MattP]

 

[Strokes]

46 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Who are these people that are changing their minds? I’ve barely met a single person who has changed once, let alone twice.

Isn’t more likely the sample size is just too small for this one subject?

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

Who are these people that are changing their minds? I’ve barely met a single person who has changed once, let alone twice.

Isn’t more likely the sample size is just too small for this one subject?

The margin of error on that sample size is 2.5% so yeah that could explain it. But the intuitive reason is that it's the start of a status quo bias towards being out now we are actually out. 

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

The margin of error on that sample size is 2.5% so yeah that could explain it. But the intuitive reason is that it's the start of a status quo bias towards being out now we are actually out. 

 

That makes sense. There will be people who backed Remain while that was a possibility but who just want to get on with life now that it's not.

While some will opt for "Remain" because that was their original preference, only a minority would seriously want to start campaigning to rejoin the EU so soon - particularly when nothing disastrous has happened (yet).

 

I'd say this was part of the popularity of the "Get Brexit done" slogan at the election, too. Not only among fervent Brexiteers, but also among less fervent Remainers who just wanted the issue to be "done" and to be rid of it.

 

Of course, there might be a swing back towards Remain/Rejoin if bad stuff starts to happen late this year and into 2021 - after the transition period ends, if we have No Deal / skeleton deal....

But, quite apart from "EU intransigence" being blamed for that, there'll now also be coronavirus to muddy the waters and to take the blame for any business closures, job losses etc.

[Strokes]

14 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

The margin of error on that sample size is 2.5% so yeah that could explain it. But the intuitive reason is that it's the start of a status quo bias towards being out now we are actually out. 

As I read it, the sample size is just 1,508. 
We have 650 constituencies in the UK all with vast differences in the referendum, even within neighbouring parts. 
Taking a sample size of an average of just over 2 per constituency is surely going to produce big changes from to another.

Unless they take huge samples, I cannot see any point to these polls, whether they favour my opinion or not.

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

As I read it, the sample size is just 1,508. 
We have 650 constituencies in the UK all with vast differences in the referendum, even within neighbouring parts. 
Taking a sample size of an average of just over 2 per constituency is surely going to produce big changes from to another.

Unless they take huge samples, I cannot see any point to these polls, whether they favour my opinion or not.

 

The constituencies don't really matter, when it comes to Brexit in particular people are pretty pretty predictable using a range of demographic factors independent of their constituency.

But the point is that sample size is reasonably fine as long as the sampling was done properly and any weightings aren't absurd. Of course big sample sizes are preferable but even smaller samples like this are pretty reasonable estimates. A sample of 1508 has a 'margin of error' of 2.5% assuming it's not a deliberately biased sample, so whilst the result could be the other way round (or it could be stronger), its unlikely to be massively out. I just think it makes sense and will get stronger, in the short to medium term at least, as people accept that being out is the new norm and people are lazy so like the status quo.

 

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

That makes sense. There will be people who backed Remain while that was a possibility but who just want to get on with life now that it's not.

While some will opt for "Remain" because that was their original preference, only a minority would seriously want to start campaigning to rejoin the EU so soon - particularly when nothing disastrous has happened (yet).

 

I'd say this was part of the popularity of the "Get Brexit done" slogan at the election, too. Not only among fervent Brexiteers, but also among less fervent Remainers who just wanted the issue to be "done" and to be rid of it.

 

Of course, there might be a swing back towards Remain/Rejoin if bad stuff starts to happen late this year and into 2021 - after the transition period ends, if we have No Deal / skeleton deal....

But, quite apart from "EU intransigence" being blamed for that, there'll now also be coronavirus to muddy the waters and to take the blame for any business closures, job losses etc.

Well yeah, it was a good slogan cos it spoke directly to the feeling of probably 70% of the population. Most people didn't care enough to want it to drag on.

 

Obviously the virus has monopolised minds but it was interesting that EU talks got very little traction in the news this week. I'd expect that to continue virus or not anyway. But what was most interesting was the UK came out of it with the upper hand politically in terms of coherence and setting the agenda which is where the EU excelled compared to the UK in Phase 1.

[Strokes]

13 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

The constituencies don't really matter, when it comes to Brexit in particular people are pretty pretty predictable using a range of demographic factors independent of their constituency.

But the point is that sample size is reasonably fine as long as the sampling was done properly and any weightings aren't absurd. Of course big sample sizes are preferable but even smaller samples like this are pretty reasonable estimates. A sample of 1508 has a 'margin of error' of 2.5% assuming it's not a deliberately biased sample, so whilst the result could be the other way round (or it could be stronger), its unlikely to be massively out. I just think it makes sense and will get stronger, in the short to medium term at least, as people accept that being out is the new norm and people are lazy so like the status quo.

 

I said constituency because it’s an easier reference point for the referendum results but you don’t think regionally brexit opinions would vastly differ?

Surely 1508 is too small when you consider the vast differences of cities to rural, north to south, London to anywhere in England. Scotland Northern Ireland to England and Wales. 1508 just doesn’t seem far reaching enough to be to be taken seriously.

How do you prove a margin for error is accurate?

Edited 7 March 2020 by Strokes