Kopfkino Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 Decided to try and make this interesting for myself, put £200 @ 7/4 on Biden as soon as I saw the oil price tank tonight. Gonna be another rough week for equities and people are already rushing to bonds and gold. Prediction markets think a recession is more likely than not this year and I still have faith in 'it's the economy, stupid'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 22 minutes ago, Kopfkino said: Decided to try and make this interesting for myself, put £200 @ 7/4 on Biden as soon as I saw the oil price tank tonight. Gonna be another rough week for equities and people are already rushing to bonds and gold. Prediction markets think a recession is more likely than not this year and I still have faith in 'it's the economy, stupid'. Well, considering the economy is the one truly effective string Trump has to his bow when it comes to anything other than his die-hard support, if it does tank then I very much think you're onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 8 hours ago, Kopfkino said: Decided to try and make this interesting for myself, put £200 @ 7/4 on Biden as soon as I saw the oil price tank tonight. Gonna be another rough week for equities and people are already rushing to bonds and gold. Prediction markets think a recession is more likely than not this year and I still have faith in 'it's the economy, stupid'. Good price. It's a 50/50 race for me now. I was lumping on Trump if Sanders got the nomination but that's finished. I'm still kicking myself I didn't take the big prices on Biden when Bloomberg had that debate shocker, easy in hindsight but with South Carolina to come he was always going to be the one they had to push to kill off Bernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detroit Blues Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 1 hour ago, MattP said: Good price. It's a 50/50 race for me now. I was lumping on Trump if Sanders got the nomination but that's finished. I'm still kicking myself I didn't take the big prices on Biden when Bloomberg had that debate shocker, easy in hindsight but with South Carolina to come he was always going to be the one they had to push to kill off Bernie. Hindsight is 20/20. Had Buttigeig not dropped out before Super Tuesday, Biden wouldn't be leading the delegate count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Detroit Blues said: Hindsight is 20/20. Had Buttigeig not dropped out before Super Tuesday, Biden wouldn't be leading the delegate count. That's sort of my point though - they were always going to rally around someone before Super Tuesday and with South Carolina the primary before that Biden was always going to be that candidate. I'm annoyed at myself as it had to Bloomberg or Biden and soon as Mini Mike got taken apart in that debate it was never going to be him. Edited 9 March 2020 by MattP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detroit Blues Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 51 minutes ago, MattP said: That's sort of my point though - they were always going to rally around someone before Super Tuesday and with South Carolina the primary before that Biden was always going to be that candidate. I'm annoyed at myself as it had to Bloomberg or Biden and soon as Mini Mike got taken apart in that debate it was never going to be him. I'm actually kind of surprised Biden has made it this far TBH. His campaign up until South Carolina was unspectacular to say the least. After South Carolina, a lot of moderate/establishment democrats saw him as the path forward to avoid Trump/Sanders. Had Buttigeig stayed in the race through Super Tuesday, I think Sanders is ahead by a wide margin, and the talking point is not about Biden being the front runner. What is happening now is completely counter to the 2016 RNC primary. Trumps' centrist adversaries stayed in too long, and moderate republicans never united behind a single candidate. If they had, they would have crushed trump 60%-40%. Instead, the moderate vote was split, and then people started to vote for Trump because they wanted to support the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 2 hours ago, Detroit Blues said: I'm actually kind of surprised Biden has made it this far TBH. His campaign up until South Carolina was unspectacular to say the least. After South Carolina, a lot of moderate/establishment democrats saw him as the path forward to avoid Trump/Sanders. Had Buttigeig stayed in the race through Super Tuesday, I think Sanders is ahead by a wide margin, and the talking point is not about Biden being the front runner. What is happening now is completely counter to the 2016 RNC primary. Trumps' centrist adversaries stayed in too long, and moderate republicans never united behind a single candidate. If they had, they would have crushed trump 60%-40%. Instead, the moderate vote was split, and then people started to vote for Trump because they wanted to support the winner. I don't think Sanders was ever going to be ahead by a wide margin as he even managed to start losing in states that Buttigieg wasn't really considered a runner. The Republicans did cock it up, but the volume of votes Trump racked up there never bore a resemblance to Sanders, he has never looked likely of securing a outright majority of delegates even when it looked like he would win. He just couldn't get the vote out, he doesn't have a wide enough appeal. Just looking at his rallies are a bit pathetic, a load of screaming kids just cheering anything he says no matter how ridiculous - he's actually not as different to Trump as he thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kopfkino Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 14 hours ago, leicsmac said: Well, considering the economy is the one truly effective string Trump has to his bow when it comes to anything other than his die-hard support, if it does tank then I very much think you're onto something. I've no idea how the economy was ever strength tbh. He's spaffed a huge amount of money on a tax cut for predictably very little gain, has hurt US consumers, has hurt US farmers and much of the favourable stuff was inherited. Idk the US well enough but I'm not aware of a perception thats baked in that gives a Republican president the advantage on the economy like there is in the UK. 6 hours ago, MattP said: Good price. It's a 50/50 race for me now. I was lumping on Trump if Sanders got the nomination but that's finished. I'm still kicking myself I didn't take the big prices on Biden when Bloomberg had that debate shocker, easy in hindsight but with South Carolina to come he was always going to be the one they had to push to kill off Bernie. It didn't last for long and 13/10 is about as good as you're getting now. I dunno what Biden would have been a couple of weeks but I imagine it looks insane rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 9 March 2020 Share Posted 9 March 2020 1 minute ago, Kopfkino said: It didn't last for long and 13/10 is about as good as you're getting now. I dunno what Biden would have been a couple of weeks but I imagine it looks insane rn. Saw 20's at Bet365 so he might have been touching 30's on the exchanges. He was 8/1 just to win the Democratic nomination at one point, outrageous value and extremely frustrating in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPH Posted 10 March 2020 Share Posted 10 March 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/09/us/politics/joe-biden-poor-kids.html “Poor kids are just as bright as white kids!” Whoopsie, Joe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jattdogg Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 Biden wins Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. Sanders is done. Trump will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 3 minutes ago, Jattdogg said: Biden wins Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. Sanders is done. Trump will win I hope you're wrong about that last part, man. Too much at stake. Perhaps the current viral epidemic may end up having a part to play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 6 hours ago, Jattdogg said: Biden wins Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. Sanders is done. Trump will win Genuine 50/50 race now. You can see the upset in Trump's tweets that Sanders hasn't won. Biden should carry Florida, if he does he doesn't need much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finnaldo Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 Democrats hand the Presidency to Trump then, deserve what they get really. #TheResistance Twitter is going to be hilarious when Trump cleans house again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 On 09/03/2020 at 15:54, Kopfkino said: It didn't last for long and 13/10 is about as good as you're getting now. I dunno what Biden would have been a couple of weeks but I imagine it looks insane rn. I'm thinking of joining you on this despite a self imposed ban on betting. Florida turns and Biden pretty much only needs one rust belt and he's got enough. Anything odds against looks value. Against the backdrop of CV and a possible recession I think Biden goes into this as the favourite by the time we get to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jattdogg Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, MattP said: Let them have Sanders and cry when he gets spanked by Trump. Generation of cry babies. Dont get their way and throw a fit. Would rather their own party lose and not vote for Biden. Pathetic. I get that you are upset, the same could be said for Warren supporters (or others) but you get on with it. Isnt then goal to beat Trump and at least have someone in office that better aligns with you even if its not as good as Sanders? No, if i cant have Sanders then i will take the crazier of the 2 left ....lol Psycho!!!! Edited 11 March 2020 by Jattdogg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 (Bear in mind I haven't fact-checked this infographic, but it seems to be on the level) Two things: - are young folks having their votes suppressed, are too apathetic to vote, or both? That 18-29 year olds make up just 15% of the voting bloc is frankly criminal. - the polarisation is so, so stark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jattdogg Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 1 minute ago, leicsmac said: (Bear in mind I haven't fact-checked this infographic, but it seems to be on the level) Two things: - are young folks having their votes suppressed, are too apathetic to vote, or both? That 18-29 year olds make up just 15% of the voting bloc is frankly criminal. - the polarisation is so, so stark. Think some highschoolers and college kids are always involved but then childhood ends and working reality kicks in. They stop giving a hoot as life is all about working and enjoying life premarriage etc. then as they age, have kids these things start to matter again and turnout increases as they become more engaged again. I care more now than i did when i was 25 thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 11 March 2020 Share Posted 11 March 2020 29 minutes ago, MattP said: I'm thinking of joining you on this despite a self imposed ban on betting. Florida turns and Biden pretty much only needs one rust belt and he's got enough. Anything odds against looks value. Against the backdrop of CV and a possible recession I think Biden goes into this as the favourite by the time we get to November. I hope you're ashamed of yourself, @Kopfkino. What a bad moral influence you are. Next you'll be encouraging me to get a few pints down my neck to celebrate Biden's win..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 12 March 2020 Share Posted 12 March 2020 Democrats now the favourites to win the election on Betfair. Amazing turnaround - Republicans were being backed at 1.60ish just three weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl the Llama Posted 12 March 2020 Share Posted 12 March 2020 10 hours ago, MattP said: Democrats now the favourites to win the election on Betfair. Amazing turnaround - Republicans were being backed at 1.60ish just three weeks ago. Which begs the question what the real issue with Hillary was. I was led to believe her loss was a rejection of the same old Washington insiders always running the show (and pizza-hut basement paedo rings) but they wouldn't be prepared to vote for a man as politically inspiring as a soggy lump of papier maché (who really likes touching young girls) if that were the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jattdogg Posted 13 March 2020 Share Posted 13 March 2020 18 hours ago, MattP said: Democrats now the favourites to win the election on Betfair. Amazing turnaround - Republicans were being backed at 1.60ish just three weeks ago. Nobody thought trump would win......im not too confident of the dems winning the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 13 March 2020 Share Posted 13 March 2020 18 hours ago, MattP said: Democrats now the favourites to win the election on Betfair. Amazing turnaround - Republicans were being backed at 1.60ish just three weeks ago. 8 hours ago, Carl the Llama said: Which begs the question what the real issue with Hillary was. I was led to believe her loss was a rejection of the same old Washington insiders always running the show (and pizza-hut basement paedo rings) but they wouldn't be prepared to vote for a man as politically inspiring as a soggy lump of papier maché (who really likes touching young girls) if that were the case. You could get 1/3 on Hillary pretty much until election night, I think it's too early to say whether or not Biden will have the same problems as Hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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