US Presidential Election 2020

[Carl the Llama]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Just to ask here, do any of you still genuinely want Bernie to win?

 

Even after last night where the bloke managed to lose the most solid states he was supposed to have? I mean why would you? Why would you be so deluded into thinking he can beat Trump? It's crazy.

 

Biden isn't perfect, but he's the only hope of removing Trump.

Trump will wipe the floor with Biden if he gets the nomination.  Americans are crying out for actual, observable change.  Those who fell for Trump's drain the swamp rhetoric won't be swayed by the most bland status quo politician out there, but they may consider voting for a man who doesn't want them to go bankrupt every time they get a cough.

[knitro]

Unless Coronavirus kills 10% of the US population, Trump wins this at a canter. The more interesting political questions is who emerges on both sides in 2024?

[Kopfkino]

Why did Warren not do good? Thought she was miles the best candidate from my limited knowledge of the whole shabang

[Toddybad]

Why would a British right winger prefer a guy in the Whitehouse that doesn't believe climate change and is on record as calling coronavirus numbers a hoax, rather than a centrist democrat like biden?

 

Genuinally don't understand.

Edited 6 March 2020 by Toddybad

[leicsmac]

7 hours ago, MattP said:

 

It's both. No idea why you would push one but not the other?

 

For the record very little Bernie says is "spot on" - as I've said before. Student Union politics, shouting let's do everything without costing anything. All a bit pathetic to be honest.

....because I think one (namely age) is more of a factor than the other (race), despite both being in play.

 

So what Bernie said there about the US healthcare system isn't salient, then? I'd be interested in knowing why.

 

18 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Why would a British right winger prefer a guy in the Whitehouse that doesn't believe climate change and is on record as calling coronavirus numbers a hoax, rather than a centrist democrat like biden?

 

Genuinally don't understand.

...because they actually do agree with most of what he says and does but won't flat-out say it because they know how a full endorsement would look on here? And/or (concerning the issues you raise) don't think scientific policy is a priority despite all that's happening because reasons?

 

3 hours ago, knitro said:

Unless Coronavirus kills 10% of the US population, Trump wins this at a canter. The more interesting political questions is who emerges on both sides in 2024?

Trump may well certainly win, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it will be easy, not yet and not based on the polling and bookies odds. It took just a few hundred thousand voters in key areas to be the difference last time.

 

2 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

Why did Warren not do good? Thought she was miles the best candidate from my limited knowledge of the whole shabang

Not Bernie enough to appeal to the firebrand leftists, not Biden enough to appeal to the moderates, I think. Tried to be all things to all people and it didn't work, which is a shame.

 

Hopefully either Biden or Bernie will ask her about a possible VP pick because I think she'd do well there for either of their campaigns.

Edited 6 March 2020 by leicsmac

[Carl the Llama]

BeRnIe'S pOlIcIeS wIlL cOsT tOo MuCh LoL

 

Quote

 

A new analysis of the economic impact of a Medicare for All health care reform, like the signature policy proposal of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, suggests that such a plan would not only increase wages for workers but also create additional jobs.

Sanders, a progressive senator from Vermont who is currently a close second to former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic frontrunner, has long advocated for a universal or single-payer health care system. Critics argue that such a policy would lead to mass job loss and be an economic drain on the country, but the new analysis published Thursday by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) suggests the opposite would happen.

Josh Bivens, EPI's director who conducted the study, wrote in the report that Medicare for All "would be unambiguously positive" for the labor market in the U.S., leading to a "boost in wages and salaries" as well as an "increase in job quality, while producing "a net increase in jobs."

Although the analysis notes that policymakers should not "ignore the distress caused by job transitions" due to such a health care reform, Bivens wrote that job losses during a transitional period would be "relatively small."

"Despite the fact that M4A [Medicare for All] could deliver these large benefits to efficient labor market functioning, the policy often comes under fire from critics making highly exaggerated claims about the potential job loss that could occur under such a reform," Bivens noted.

"The grain of truth in some of the claims is that, like any productivity improvement, the adoption of a reform like M4A would require the redeployment of workers from one sector (the health insurance and medical billing complex) to other sectors (mostly the delivery of health care)," he wrote. "But there is little in the M4A-induced redeployment of workers that would greatly stress the American labor market over and above the uncertainty and churn that characterizes this labor market every year."

Wendell Potter, a former health insurance vice president who left the industry and now advocates for health care reform, told Newsweek that the analysis undermines a key argument the private insurance industry uses to push back against Medicare for all.

"It's a dark day for my old pals in the insurance industry because one of their few arguments for keeping the current system placing profits over care, is gone," Potter said. "On top of the obvious medical benefits, America's jobs outlook will improve under Medicare for All. The data proves it."

Critics of Medicare for All, which was also endorsed by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a former Democratic presidential candidate who suspended her presidential campaign on Thursday, have also repeatedly questioned how such a plan would be paid for. They've argued that it would be far too expensive and become a major drain on the federal budget.

But a study by researchers at Yale University, the University of Florida and the University of Maryland published in mid-February found that universal health care would actually save about $450 billion per year in health care costs. Additionally, it projected that a Medicare for All system would prevent at least 60,000 unnecessary deaths every year, as tens of millions of uninsured Americans would receive full health coverage under the system.

"Our study is actually conservative because it doesn't factor in the lives saved among underinsured Americans—which includes anyone who nominally has insurance but has postponed or foregone care because they couldn't afford the copays and deductibles," Alison Galvani, an author of that study, who is a researcher at the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at the Yale School of Public Health, told Newsweek last month.

Most Democratic voters appear to support a transition away from private insurance toward a universal health care system, according to exit polls conducted in the 18 states to have held primaries and caucuses so far in this election cycle. A plurality of Democratic voters in all the states to have voted thus far have backed the idea of government insurance, while majorities of voters backed the policy idea in 16 states.

Biden supports more modest health care reform. The former vice president has advocated for expanding the Affordable Care Act (ACA), known commonly as Obamacare, by making a Medicare buy-in option available to some Americans. His plan would allow private insurance to continue to compete alongside the government-run system.

 

 

[Kopfkino]

8 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Not Bernie enough to appeal to the firebrand leftists, not Biden enough to appeal to the moderates, I think. Tried to be all things to all people and it didn't work, which is a shame.

 

Hopefully either Biden or Bernie will ask her about a possible VP pick because I think she'd do well there for either of their campaigns.

Ah the usual Anglo-Saxon problem of being half decent but stuck between the youth's fetish for magic grandpas and the average middle classes' desire for drab officialdom

[Lionator]

Long term it would be better for a Trump victory over Biden I feel. The next 4 years would again be awful but I am adamant that Trump would not start a war (due to his narcissistic personality disorder, where he wants to be seen as a non-war president). The issues with Trump arise with stuff like the current coronavirus outbreak, where his lackadaisical approach to science is genuinely dangerous.

 

What does Joe Biden stand for, can anybody tell me? Trump isn't bluffing when he's talking about Bernie being robbed and being the best candidate, he's saying it because it's true and he knows that Bernie won't win the nomination. 

 

Trump winning again gives the Democrats the chance to find a decent nominee for 2024 when they have a good chance of winning. On the other hand I genuinely believe that Ivanka or Jared will stand on the Republican side in 2024, which would be a mess. 

[Guest MattP]

14 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

Why did Warren not do good? Thought she was miles the best candidate from my limited knowledge of the whole shabang

She was the best candidate from what I saw as well.

 

The kids following Bernie and the continued Pocahontas jibes probably finished her off. 

[Guest MattP]

15 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Trump will wipe the floor with Biden if he gets the nomination.  Americans are crying out for actual, observable change.  Those who fell for Trump's drain the swamp rhetoric won't be swayed by the most bland status quo politician out there, but they may consider voting for a man who doesn't want them to go bankrupt every time they get a cough.

But they clearly aren't are they? If they were he wouldn't have lost so badly on Tuesday. 

 

I can't believe anyone is carrying on with this fantasy that Sanders is best placed to beat Trump. Biden makes it close and you assume he wins Florida. Bernie doesn't win Florida and already has a mountain to climb.

 

What states are you expecting Bernie Sanders to win?

[Detroit Blues]

42 minutes ago, MattP said:

She was the best candidate from what I saw as well.

 

The kids following Bernie and the continued Pocahontas jibes probably finished her off. 

She's also not particularly charismatic. 

[Guest MattP]

WTF

 

 

[Toddybad]

This virus could have an impact.

 

Trump is a joke with stuff like this. If and when things get worse it won't be good for him.

 

It also has the power to change minds about the ridiculous medical system they have. Even republican senators are calling for the government to help people with this. Their vapid arguments have fallen away the second it might have a knock on negative impact on them.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

WTF

 

 

To expand on this:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/06/bernie-sanders-nazi/

 

Sanders is Jewish himself, of course, but this wouldn't be the first time he's annoyed Zionists like Ostrovsky because he considers Palestinians to be...well, people, rather than not.

[leicsmac]

 

How can a leading public figure - probably the leading public figure - lie so blatantly in this manner and not be held accountable for it? It's like the lie doesn't matter so long as it makes people feel good.

[Jattdogg]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

 

How can a leading public figure - probably the leading public figure - lie so blatantly in this manner and not be held accountable for it? It's like the lie doesn't matter so long as it makes people feel good.

Maybe Biden should refer to him as creepy vagina  grabber....although biden has his weird touching instances with women...

Edited 7 March 2020 by Jattdogg

[Finnaldo]

7 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

Maybe Biden should refer to him as creepy vagina  grabber....although biden has his weird touching instances with women...

It will be quite the sight to behold; the battle of the creepy old men. Who can get away with the most perversion and win the White House? Keith Van will be the new Steve Bannon!

 

23 hours ago, MattP said:

But they clearly aren't are they? If they were he wouldn't have lost so badly on Tuesday. 

 

I can't believe anyone is carrying on with this fantasy that Sanders is best placed to beat Trump. Biden makes it close and you assume he wins Florida. Bernie doesn't win Florida and already has a mountain to climb.

 

What states are you expecting Bernie Sanders to win?

Following that logic Matt, Burnham would’ve stood no chance in the 2017 election because Corbyn beat him out in the leadership election. 
 

Democrat will vote Democrat. Why would those disaffected voters who voted against Hillary vote for Biden this time around?

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Finnaldo said:

Following that logic Matt, Burnham would’ve stood no chance in the 2017 election because Corbyn beat him out in the leadership election. 
 

Democrat will vote Democrat. Why would those disaffected voters who voted against Hillary vote for Biden this time around?

You can't compare the two as voting on Super Tuesday has far more relevance to the wider public than just the core of a membership. You also have open primaries in areas of the country.

 

Just look at the scale of the vote in America. It's chalk and cheese to even just 400,000 Labour members voting.

 

If Bernie was the man to win back the rust belt he wasn't losing states like Maine and Michigan which he was said to be 99% certain to win.

 

The evidence we have on Bernie so far is he struggles to bring out the black vote, struggles to out the female vote and struggles to bring out the blue collar vote. You don't win an election just on kids and well off white liberals.

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

Democrat will vote Democrat. Why would those disaffected voters who voted against Hillary vote for Biden this time around?

No reason they would for Sanders either on that logic. There is clearly though a large black vote that WILL come out for Biden that didn't come out for Clinton or would for Bernard.

 

But as usual nothing turns off swing voters like radical fiscal policy as seen time and time again.

 

Democrats have got this one right, the bookies have Trump 4/6 to win, he was going to be 1/3 had Sanders won.

[Alf Bentley]

15 minutes ago, MattP said:

No reason they would for Sanders either on that logic. There is clearly though a large black vote that WILL come out for Biden that didn't come out for Clinton or would for Bernard.

 

But as usual nothing turns off swing voters like radical fiscal policy as seen time and time again.

 

Democrats have got this one right, the bookies have Trump 4/6 to win, he was going to be 1/3 had Sanders won.

 

Jonathan Freedland agrees with you: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-joe-biden-epidemic-washington-obama

 

Seemed like a good article to me, that, though I'm under-informed about US politics/society.

[MC Prussian]

10 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

It will be quite the sight to behold; the battle of the creepy old men. Who can get away with the most perversion and win the White House? Keith Van will be the new Steve Bannon!

Following that logic Matt, Burnham would’ve stood no chance in the 2017 election because Corbyn beat him out in the leadership election. 
 

Democrat will vote Democrat. Why would those disaffected voters who voted against Hillary vote for Biden this time around?

Ever thought of Democrats abstaining from the vote completely?

The majority of the US voting population is undecided/not aligned to a particular party, anyway.

[MPH]

On 06/03/2020 at 04:48, Lionator said:

Long term it would be better for a Trump victory over Biden I feel. The next 4 years would again be awful but I am adamant that Trump would not start a war (due to his narcissistic personality disorder, where he wants to be seen as a non-war president). The issues with Trump arise with stuff like the current coronavirus outbreak, where his lackadaisical approach to science is genuinely dangerous.

 

What does Joe Biden stand for, can anybody tell me? Trump isn't bluffing when he's talking about Bernie being robbed and being the best candidate, he's saying it because it's true and he knows that Bernie won't win the nomination. 

 

Trump winning again gives the Democrats the chance to find a decent nominee for 2024 when they have a good chance of winning. On the other hand I genuinely believe that Ivanka or Jared will stand on the Republican side in 2024, which would be a mess. 

 

 

I think you are being a bit too kind to Trump there. He’s all about the economy and likely sees wars as an inconvenient cost and too expensive.

[ozleicester]

 

“I'm much more humble than you would understand.”

“I have the best temperament or certainly one of the best temperaments of anybody that’s ever run for the office of president. Ever.”

“I’m the most successful person ever to run for the presidency, by far. Nobody’s ever been more successful than me.”

“I'm the least racist person you have ever interviewed”

“I’m the least racist person you’ll find anywhere in the world.”

"Number one, I am the least anti-Semitic person that you’ve ever seen in your entire life. Number two, racism. The least racist person"

“I’m the best thing that’s ever happened to the Secret Service.”

"I am the world’s greatest person that does not want to let people into the country."

“No one has done more for people with disabilities than me.”

"Nobody in the history of this country has ever known so much about infrastructure as Donald Trump."

"There's nobody who understands the horror of nuclear more than me."

"There's nobody bigger or better at the military than I am."

"There's nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community and the CIA than Donald Trump,"

"There’s nobody that’s done so much for equality as I have"

"There's nobody that has more respect for women than I do,"

"I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me"

"I am going to save Social Security without any cuts. I know where to get the money from. Nobody else does ."

"Nobody respects women more than I do"

"And I was so furious at that story, because there's nobody that respects women more than I do,"

"Nobody respects women more than Donald Trump"

"She can't talk about me because nobody respects women more than Donald Trump,"

"Nobody has more respect for women than Donald Trump!"

"Nobody has more respect for women than I do."

"Nobody has more respect for women than I do. Nobody."

“Nobody reads the Bible more than me.”

"Nobody loves the Bible more than I do"

"Nobody does self-deprecating humor better than I do. It’s not even close"

“Nobody knows more about taxes than I do, maybe in the history of the world.”

"Nobody knows more about trade than me"

"Nobody knows the (visa) system better than me. I know the H1B. I know the H2B. Nobody knows it better than me."

"Nobody knows debt better than me."

"I think nobody knows the system better than I do"

"I hope all workers demand that their @Teamsters reps endorse Donald J. Trump. Nobody knows jobs like I do! Don’t let them sell you out!"

“I know more about renewables than any human being on earth.”

“I know more about ISIS than the generals do.”

"I know more about contributions than anybody"

"I know more about offense and defense than they will ever understand, believe me. Believe me. Than they will ever understand. Than they will ever understand."

"I know more about wedges than any human being that's ever lived"

"I know more about drones than anybody,"

"I know more about Cory than he knows about himself."

"I know our complex tax laws better than anyone who has ever run for president"

"I know tech better than anyone"

“I’m very highly educated. I know words; I have the best words.”

"I know some of you may think l'm tough and harsh but actually I'm a very compassionate person (with a very high IQ) with strong common sense"

"I watch these pundits on television and, you know, they call them intellectuals. They're not intellectuals," Trump told thousands of supporters in the swing state. "I'm much smarter than them. I think I have a much higher IQ. I think I went to a better college — better everything,"

"@ajodom60: @FoxNews and as far as that low-info voter base goes, I have an IQ of 132. So much for that theory. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain"

Sorry losers and haters, but my I.Q. is one of the highest -and you all know it! Please don't feel so stupid or insecure,it's not your fault

“He’s been quite critical of you as you know. He’s attacked you for being ignorant,” Piers Morgan said to Trump. “Let’s do an IQ test,” Trump interrupted

"We can’t let these people, these so called egg-heads--and by the way, I guarantee you my IQ is much higher than theirs, alright. Somebody said the other day, ‘Yes, well the intellectuals–‘ I said, ‘What intellectuals? I’m smarter than they are, many of people in this audience are smarter than they are."

“You know, I’m, like, a smart person. I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years,” Trump told Fox News last December.

Trump says he has "one of the great memories of all time"

Asked on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” who he talks with consistently about foreign policy, Trump responded, “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things."

" ... I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!"

[Guest MattP]

11 hours ago, MPH said:

I think you are being a bit too kind to Trump there. He’s all about the economy and likely sees wars as an inconvenient cost and too expensive.

I think it's just more that he has realised there is no desire anymore for intervention anymore among the Western electorate.

[leicsmac]

Something else to consider that makes the stakes this year a bit higher:

 

It's reasonably likely that during the next Presidential term at least one of the US Supreme Court positions will become vacant. The conservatives already have a (probable) majority there, but Trump being able to appoint one or more others would surely solidify that majority for decades to come - as SC judges of course serve for life. This has the potential to affect a lot of different issues, Roe v Wade being merely at the top of a long list that includes the legality of immigration rulings, protections for minority groups in the workplace, and environmental judgements against big corporations, among other things.