The Politics Thread 2020

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

I mean are we are not going to acknowledge that we are in the middle of a pandemic. People are locked in their homes, some on 80% wages, businesses suspended trading but yeah it’s all about brexit.

I’m not suggesting the delays haven’t attributed to the figures but we have no idea how much is down to what and probably never will.

 

Not entirely true. Newsnight quoted comparative figures last night showing that non-EU trade was down by a much smaller margin: a single-figures percentage, whereas UK-EU exports were down 40% & EU-UK imports down 29%.

Is there any reason why the pandemic and lockdown would have a massively greater impact on EU trade than on non-EU trade?

 

Admittedly, some of the massive fall in UK-EU trade may be temporary - firms having stockpiled in preparation for Brexit or holding back on trade until they've seen how the new system works and are sure they can viably deal with all the Brexit barriers, delays and extra red tape. Maybe EU-UK trade will creep up a bit again, so worth delaying judgment for a few months or even a year or two.

 

On the other hand, not all the Brexit barriers are in place yet. Most are in place in the EU, but not in the UK - hence the smaller fall in imports compared to exports. Despite years to prepare, our govt didn't recruit enough customs agents, get a workable I.T. system ready or build enough extra port facilities to handle all the extra physical checks and paperwork. So, most EU goods are still entering the UK unchecked, whereas the EU is wrapping UK exports up in red tape, as we patriotically requested.

 

Still, if UK-EU trade does take a big hit over the coming months and years, I'm sure we'll have no problem doubling trade with the USA or quintupling trade with Japan to make up for it.....

[bovril]

7 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

It was wall-to-wall coverage, day after endless day, as people tried to frustrate democracy, between the actual Brexit vote and the 2019 GE.

I suspect most of the moderates (I consider myself in that as someone who voted remain but not a remoaner) are willing to give it a chance and hope it succeeds and not shouting it down at every twist and turn at this very early stage of proceedings.

Megxit is the story of the week and something else will replace it before too long.

Not really. It got very little coverage from the vote to May's deal in parliament. The negotiations were ignored by the majority of British people, the fact that May wanted to leave the SM & CU was ignored by the majority of British people. Considering how much it impacts our life the public are pretty apathetic.

 

But I can see from your post about remoaners frustrating democracy that you're not going to agree with me.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

Not really. It got very little coverage from the vote to May's deal in parliament. The negotiations were ignored by the majority of British people, the fact that May wanted to leave the SM & CU was ignored by the majority of British people. Considering how much it impacts our life the public are pretty apathetic.

 

But I can see from your post about remoaners frustrating democracy that you're not going to agree with me.

It's a forum, Mr Bovril, people rarely agree and that's cool, as long as it's polite, like we both are. 

My recollection is that Brexit dominated the press and media over and over and people were fed up with democracy being denied which led to a massive majority for Boris who said he'd get it moving, which he did.

 

I'm sure there are plenty who want it to fail, and the country to suffer, to be able to say: "Told you so!" rather than see it succeed and the country flourish, which is sad really.

[bovril]

47 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I'm sure there are plenty who want it to fail, and the country to suffer, to be able to say: "Told you so!" rather than see it succeed and the country flourish, which is sad really.

If you're worried about frustrating democracy then surely you support people's right to say "I told you so"? The fact that bruises some people's egos is irrelevant. It's a strange quirk of Brexit that those who worry the most about the will of the people being denied also get quite cross when people point out that putting up trade barriers is a mistake. I want to see the country flourish and I'm disappointed that the country now finds itself in this position.

 

This situation has tangible negative effects on my life and I'm not going to shut up and accept it because you get annoyed seeing remoaners remoaning on one of your five social media accounts. 

Edited 13 March 2021 by bovril

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

It's a forum, Mr Bovril, people rarely agree and that's cool, as long as it's polite, like we both are. 

My recollection is that Brexit dominated the press and media over and over and people were fed up with democracy being denied which led to a massive majority for Boris who said he'd get it moving, which he did.

 

I'm sure there are plenty who want it to fail, and the country to suffer, to be able to say: "Told you so!" rather than see it succeed and the country flourish, which is sad really.

And I'm sure such a claim would be better off qualified as opinion or backed up with evidence, lest it be dismissed without evidence. If we're using some measure of "patriotism" when it comes to a nation succeeding or not as a measure of character, I'd be prepared to opine that the average Remainer is no more or less such than the average Brexitter.

 

Though speaking for my own take, the nation-state as an idea has flaws that will become horribly, tragically clear in a few decades time when the average temperature of the Earth has increased enough to put enough pressure on vital resources (perhaps water) - an event largely caused, unfortunately, by the self-interest and lack of foresight of at least some of those same nation-states.

Edited 13 March 2021 by leicsmac

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, bovril said:

If you're worried about frustrating democracy then surely you support people's right to say "I told you so"? The fact that bruises some people's egos is irrelevant. It's a strange quirk of Brexit that those who worry the most about the will of the people being denied also get quite cross when people point out that putting up trade barriers is a mistake. I want to see the country flourish and I'm disappointed that the country now finds itself in this position.

 

This situation has tangible negative effects on my life and I'm not going to shut up and accept it because you get annoyed seeing remoaners remoaning on one of your five social media accounts. 

There is a difference between having the right to say I told you so because it failed and wanting it to fail, so you can say it.

[Strokes]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Not entirely true. Newsnight quoted comparative figures last night showing that non-EU trade was down by a much smaller margin: a single-figures percentage, whereas UK-EU exports were down 40% & EU-UK imports down 29%.

Is there any reason why the pandemic and lockdown would have a massively greater impact on EU trade than on non-EU trade?

 

Admittedly, some of the massive fall in UK-EU trade may be temporary - firms having stockpiled in preparation for Brexit or holding back on trade until they've seen how the new system works and are sure they can viably deal with all the Brexit barriers, delays and extra red tape. Maybe EU-UK trade will creep up a bit again, so worth delaying judgment for a few months or even a year or two.

 

On the other hand, not all the Brexit barriers are in place yet. Most are in place in the EU, but not in the UK - hence the smaller fall in imports compared to exports. Despite years to prepare, our govt didn't recruit enough customs agents, get a workable I.T. system ready or build enough extra port facilities to handle all the extra physical checks and paperwork. So, most EU goods are still entering the UK unchecked, whereas the EU is wrapping UK exports up in red tape, as we patriotically requested.

 

Still, if UK-EU trade does take a big hit over the coming months and years, I'm sure we'll have no problem doubling trade with the USA or quintupling trade with Japan to make up for it.....

What were the figures for trade like in April 2020, surely that’s a better measure. I have no idea why trade with non EU countries might be less affected but I can take a little bit of a guess that they haven’t restricted their businesses as much as European countries may have done.

USA for examples lockdowns have not been close to ours.

[bovril]

10 minutes ago, Strokes said:

There is a difference between having the right to say I told you so because it failed and wanting it to fail, so you can say it.

What does 'wanting it to fail' mean though. I didn’t want to take back control of the border, you guys did. You succeeded, and that means less trade with the EU. 

You're kind of admitting that's failure when it's what you wanted all along. 

[WigstonWanderer]

6 hours ago, Strokes said:

I mean are we are not going to acknowledge that we are in the middle of a pandemic. People are locked in their homes, some on 80% wages, businesses suspended trading but yeah it’s all about brexit.

I’m not suggesting the delays haven’t attributed to the figures but we have no idea how much is down to what and probably never will.

I was actually referring to exports being affected less than imports, so net gain on the balance of payments.

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, bovril said:

What does 'wanting it to fail' mean though. I didn’t want to take back control of the border, you guys did. You succeeded, and that means less trade with the EU. 

You're kind of admitting that's failure when it's what you wanted all along. 

I thought we didn’t know what we wanted? You guys seem to change your angle every time.

As for wanting it to fail, it means not wanting it to be a success.

Hope that helps.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I was actually referring to exports being affected less than imports, so net gain on the balance of payments.

Sorry I forgot the Pandemic was isolated to the UK.

[bovril]

Just now, Strokes said:

I thought we didn’t know what we wanted? You guys seem to change your angle every time.

As for wanting it to fail, it means not wanting it to be a success.

Hope that helps.

I don't see leaving the customs union as a success. 

[Innovindil]

Think I'd be more inclined to be bothered/worried about the current (hopefully temporary) state of exports if the EU hadn't reinforced every polical reason of wanting to leave that shitshow "project" in the last few months.

 

Still glad we're out, probably more now than at any point since 2016. 

[WigstonWanderer]

11 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Sorry I forgot the Pandemic was isolated to the UK.

Genuinely confused by this comment. I think we’re talking at cross purposes.

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Genuinely confused by this comment. I think we’re talking at cross purposes.

Quite possibly.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

What were the figures for trade like in April 2020, surely that’s a better measure. I have no idea why trade with non EU countries might be less affected but I can take a little bit of a guess that they haven’t restricted their businesses as much as European countries may have done.

USA for examples lockdowns have not been close to ours.

 

April 2020 figures do show EU trade falling more than non-EU trade, though the margin is much smaller than in Jan 2021. So maybe stricter EU/UK lockdowns did play a part.

However, the fact that EU exports fell by 40% in Jan 2021 and yet non-EU exports fell very little conflicts with that, as all those exports came from a country (UK) that had just imposed a lockdown.

 

Even the Govt seems to accept that this slump in UK-EU trade is mainly due to Brexit. They are merely arguing that it is temporary, due to pre-Brexit stockpiling, firms fearing delays and taking time to adapt to new procedures etc.

To be fair, I suspect there is some truth in this. There were reports of firms stockpiling back in December and I've seen interviews with businesspeople who were "waiting to see" how the new system worked.

I'd expect the export figures for February and subsequent months to improve on January for those reasons - although import figures could conceivably fall further, once the UK is ready to start applying proper checks.

 

But I've also seen plenty of interviews with exporters saying that their exports will no longer be viable due to the costly volume of paperwork, delay disrupting transport/supply systems or rendering fresh food exports unsaleable.

Firms will doubtless adapt to some extent, so I wouldn't expect exports to fall 40% month after month. But extra barriers, delays and costs will render some UK-EU trade non-viable. So, I assume there will be a long-term fall in UK-EU trade.

 

This surely shouldn't come as any surprise to any sane Brexiteer (including you). My understanding was that this drop in UK-EU trade was fully expected. It was just deemed of secondary importance because:

- It would be offset by much-increased trade with faster-growing economies in more distant parts of the world

- It didn't matter much, anyway, as the important gains were "taking back control" and controlling our borders, immigration, money and laws

 

 

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I was actually referring to exports being affected less than imports, so net gain on the balance of payments.

 

The drop in exports might be fractionally lower as a gross figure, but it is higher as a percentage (40% drop in exports v. 29% drop in imports) as we import a lot more goods overall than we export (opposite for services).

 

I imagine that part of that current disparity is because the EU seems to be applying post-Brexit checks/documentary requirements to our exports, but the UK is not yet imposing those conditions on EU imports.

Astonishingly, that is because, despite the UK requesting Brexit and the EU regretting it, the UK did not make proper preparations for Brexit (port facilities, I.T. systems, extra customs agents) whereas the EU did.

[WigstonWanderer]

39 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The drop in exports might be fractionally lower as a gross figure, but it is higher as a percentage (40% drop in exports v. 29% drop in imports) as we import a lot more goods overall than we export (opposite for services).

 

I imagine that part of that current disparity is because the EU seems to be applying post-Brexit checks/documentary requirements to our exports, but the UK is not yet imposing those conditions on EU imports.

Astonishingly, that is because, despite the UK requesting Brexit and the EU regretting it, the UK did not make proper preparations for Brexit (port facilities, I.T. systems, extra customs agents) whereas the EU did.

Haha, yes I know, my comment was a gentle dig at Brexiteers who consistently maintained that the EU had more to lose than the UK as they exported more to Britain than Britain exports to them, so these stats are “vindication”. In fact, quite aside from your point about percentages, surely a decrease in trade is generally bad for jobs on both sides of the divide.

 

Clearly my little joke was much smaller than I realised, and missed the mark entirely, as evidenced by the fact that this is the third time I’ve tried to explain it and am losing the gist of it myself now 

Edited 13 March 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[WigstonWanderer]

And now I’ve used the fvcking quote button instead of edit! Doh, who changed this thing and why?

Edited 13 March 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[UpTheLeagueFox]

6 hours ago, bovril said:

 I'm not going to shut up and accept it because you get annoyed seeing remoaners remoaning on one of your five social media accounts. 

I didn't and wouldn't ask you to "shut up about it".

Didn't say it "annoyed" me either.

I simply don't get why people want it to fail.

I voted remain but now I want Brexit to succeed (because that benefits the country) and am willing to give it a chance.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Labour close gap to six points in another poll

 

 

[Mike Oxlong]

I lament the lack of ripe and juicy tomatoes and bursting broccoli although the cucumbers seem to have remained unscathed 

[Voll Blau]

13 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I didn't and wouldn't ask you to "shut up about it".

Didn't say it "annoyed" me either.

I simply don't get why people want it to fail.

I voted remain but now I want Brexit to succeed (because that benefits the country) and am willing to give it a chance.

Nobody "wants" Brexit to fail apart from the most extreme sect of internet weirdos. We all want to live in a country that's better, not worse.

 

The problem is this is not a situation where if you wish hard enough, it'll just work out. People need convincing with evidence and - at the moment - there's still little to convince me that this has been anything other than a bad idea.

 

However, there seems to be little appetite from the "winning" side of the referendum to actually do any convincing. Instead, it's still all about having a dig at "Remoaners" (one post on here even described them as "Fifth Columnists" the other day FFS - way to try and get people on board, lads!) for being on the "losing" side rather than trying to get people on board and unite the country.

 

Besides, everyone on all sides of this debate should be holding the government to account on how they deliver the best for us. They promised it and now they must deliver. It's naïve to think they'll do so if we simply twiddle our thumbs and give them our unconditional support. Governments don't work like that.

 

 

[BKLFox]

9 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Labour close gap to six points in another poll

 

 

If the next GE is in 2024 What’s the point to these almost daily polls, just reminds me of 8 games in and Southampton sitting top of the league, it doesn’t mean anything, or does it?

[I am Rod Hull]

Two local Labour parties have been suspended after an allegation of electoral fraud was made to police. The East Ham and West Ham Labour branches based in Newham, east London, are now facing an investigation by the party.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/12/labour-suspends-east-ham-and-west-ham-constituency-parties

 

There`s a surprise.

[peach0000]

18 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

If the next GE is in 2024 What’s the point to these almost daily polls, just reminds me of 8 games in and Southampton sitting top of the league, it doesn’t mean anything, or does it?

Local elections in may? I think they just tend to ask the people they are polling every question. 

Edited 14 March 2021 by peach0000