The Politics Thread 2020

[Spudulike]

17 minutes ago, Foxy_Bear said:

Essentially it IS an excuse. You could even go one further and say that the SNP always knew there was going to be a referendum on brexit and hedged their bets, giving themselves a clause to get another. 

 

But  I've always been of mind that the SNP are the Scottish NATIONALIST party. Their goal is right there in the name. You know what you're voting for and they are voted for time and time again. 

Here's me thinking it's the Scottish NATIONAL Party 

[Scotch]

7 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

Here's me thinking it's the Scottish NATIONAL Party 

It's quiet bad when even your autocorrect knows your politic affiliations!!

[Scotch]

17 minutes ago, Dunge said:

There’s no doubt to me that the EU would welcome Scotland back in, and any struggles would be overcome as they always are. The EU might demand they take the Euro, at least within a number of years, but that wouldn’t stop the SNP and would be part of relatively civil negotiations. Forget for a moment any practicalities of it and imagine the spiteful joy within the EU at the situation, and the political boon for their project that any country who dared to leave broke up. And again, never underestimate the spitefulness of the EU.

 

What I can’t agree on is that Brexit constitutes a change significant enough to have an indyref2. My position on it remains the same: I accepted indyref1 because I do think it’s important people should have their say on who rules them. But once they’ve decided, that’s it for a generation, and that you can’t just keep running referenda on any excuse until you get the decision you want. Brexit wasn’t war or genocide or anything on that level, it was a democratic decision taken by the country, another referendum to be taken seriously and respected, the kind of decision that being part of a country entails. I don’t think anyone will be able to convince me that indyref2 is justified, particularly just off the back of Brexit. Even if the SNP get voted in again, that’s not nearly enough to persuade me.

 

I suspect I’ll be disagreeing with Scottish nationalists about this for years - decades, fates willing. Maybe we’ll see a referendum again in 2050, when a generation will have passed. Or maybe it’ll come sooner with a Labour government in search of a workable majority. I hope the case for the union will have been much better made by then, instead of everywhere north of Watford being an afterthought as has been the case as long as I can remember.

Nothong you've said here is unreasonable. 

 

I think Brexit on its own IS a thin excuse but when coupled with the fact that prior to the Imdyref vote, the No campaign pushed hard on our EU status being a reason for remaining within the UK, and then yanking it away when the vast majority of Scotland voted to remain within the EU. I think it's the perfect excuse for the SNP to push for another. 

 

Like I said, I vote for the SNP. I desperately want to be an independent nation but I also believe that nows not the time. 

Let the coronavirus settle. Let the dust from Brexit settle. Let people forget how much of a nightmare it was and then regroup in a couple of years but no-one should be surprised at what the SNP will do to get independence. This is their primary goal and its the deciding factor on why they win elections comfortably. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

5 hours ago, Facecloth said:

One for @UpTheLeagueFox

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Buce said:

I expect he's busy, Facey.

I'm sure he would have posted it later...

 

5 hours ago, Facecloth said:

Never to busy when the Tory numbers are going up though 

My apologies, yes I was busy, had family things on today which took precedence.

 

So that's 35 successive poll leads now for the nasty, unpopular Tories...... 

[ozleicester]

In case anyone wants to be amazed and shocked by the standards of politicians... i recommend reading about the state of "affairs" in Oz at the moment...
Rape INSIDE parliament house
Videos of staffers jerking off on Female ministers desks and eating it
MP's blaming drunk women for being raped
The 1st law officer on leave due4 to rape allegations.
All this whilst being run by a mini me Trumpette

Sigh

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, ozleicester said:

In case anyone wants to be amazed and shocked by the standards of politicians... i recommend reading about the state of "affairs" in Oz at the moment...
Rape INSIDE parliament house
Videos of staffers jerking off on Female ministers desks and eating it
MP's blaming drunk women for being raped
The 1st law officer on leave due4 to rape allegations.
All this whilst being run by a mini me Trumpette

Sigh

Yes I have seen a bit of the coverage.  Clearly a culture of misogyny which no one has done anything effective to change.  Serious lack of senior women in government to be a voice for women as well.

That said, parliament is an employer of thousands and I suspect these situations happen in offices the world over where there is a had working / drinking type culture.

[Finnaldo]

18 hours ago, Facecloth said:

One for @UpTheLeagueFox

 

 

To be fair I don’t believe that  probably an outlier I imagine, can’t see less than a 3-4 lead for the Tories unless NHS payrise row and the Policing Bill has had a lot more of an effect than I imagined...

 

12 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

So that's 35 successive poll leads now for the nasty, unpopular Tories...... 

That’s a very narrow way of looking at it though, Geoff. Since the whole pandemic really kicked off in March we’ve had a rally round the flag effect visible in virtually all countries hit hard, and Boris is currently enjoying the fruits of whats in my opinion the one good area of management during the pandemic in the vaccine procurement and rollout (the rest ranging from terrible to awful).
 

If we’re a year on with, after furlough has been rolled up and we’re hopefully back in normality both socially and economically, the same picture I fully accept your point, but it’s rather extraordinary circumstances to be relying on opinion poll no?

Edited 24 March 2021 by Finnaldo

[ozleicester]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yes I have seen a bit of the coverage.  Clearly a culture of misogyny which no one has done anything effective to change.  Serious lack of senior women in government to be a voice for women as well.

That said, parliament is an employer of thousands and I suspect these situations happen in offices the world over where there is a had working / drinking type culture.

nah, this is well beyond this kind of thing happening everywhere. Ive worked organisations with thousands of employees..and never have i heard of a rape on company premises, that is subsequently covered up by the boss.

This is a culture of privileged private school boys slamming each others dicks in the doors, while treating women as nothing more than chattels and pieces of meat.
 

 

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

 

That Lib Dem surge didn't last long.

[Jon the Hat]

18 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

To be fair I don’t believe that  probably an outlier I imagine, can’t see less than a 3-4 lead for the Tories unless NHS payrise row and the Policing Bill has had a lot more of an effect than I imagined...

 

That’s a very narrow way of looking at it though, Geoff. Since the whole pandemic really kicked off in March we’ve had a rally round the flag effect visible in virtually all countries hit hard, and Boris is currently enjoying the fruits of whats in my opinion the one good area of management during the pandemic in the vaccine procurement and rollout (the rest ranging from terrible to awful).
 

If we’re a year on with, after furlough has been rolled up and we’re hopefully back in normality both socially and economically, the same picture I fully accept your point, but it’s rather extraordinary circumstances to be relying on opinion poll no?

We've had the rally round the flag effect, but I think that is over for a lot of people, they see the Government not giving back their freedoms now, when they promised to in January.  We have new excuses every day on why we won't be back to normal.  People are fed up with it.

[Jon the Hat]

16 hours ago, ozleicester said:

nah, this is well beyond this kind of thing happening everywhere. Ive worked organisations with thousands of employees..and never have i heard of a rape on company premises, that is subsequently covered up by the boss.

This is a culture of privileged private school boys slamming each others dicks in the doors, while treating women as nothing more than chattels and pieces of meat.
 

 

 

Cover ups work better in private sector imo. Money and settlement agreements are powerful.  Everything else you said sounds bang on though!

[Gordon the Great]

22 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

That Lib Dem surge didn't last long.

Looks like the wheel came off...................................the Lib Dem minibus !!

Edited 25 March 2021 by Gordon the Great
missed word

[Alf Bentley]

23 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

That Lib Dem surge didn't last long.

 

One day you're "breaking the mould of British politics", next day the mould is growing on you. 

[LiberalFox]

I'm glad people still care about the Lib Dems enough to post comment. I see Ed Davey has at least got things right in standing up for civil liberties a bit.  

[Scotch]

4% pay rise for NHS staff in Scotland. 3x what was offered in England but still doesn't seem like much...

[Buce]

15 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I'm glad people still care about the Lib Dems enough to post comment. I see Ed Davey has at least got things right in standing up for civil liberties a bit.  

 

I think you're confusing caring with hilarity.

 

You sold your soul to the Tories for a whiff of power and now everyone despises you.

[Buce]

 

Seems like the police were lying about injuries received in Bristol:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/25/police-retract-claims-that-officers-suffered-broken-bones-at-bristol-protest

[LiberalFox]

7 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I think you're confusing caring with hilarity.

 

You sold your soul to the Tories for a whiff of power and now everyone despises you.

The problem with this is that the Tories are doing just fine. 

[String fellow]

12 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I think you're confusing caring with hilarity.

 

You sold your soul to the Tories for a whiff of power and now everyone despises you.

That's a very selective view of history, bearing in mind the Lib-Lab pact of 1977/8 between Callaghan and Steel. Similar arrangements also happened in 1903, 1924 and 1929. Presumably, it's okay for that alignment to keep the Conservatives at bay, but not vice-versa.

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, String fellow said:

That's a very selective view of history, bearing in mind the Lib-Lab pact of 1977/8 between Callaghan and Steel. Similar arrangements also happened in 1903, 1924 and 1929. Presumably, it's okay for that alignment to keep the Conservatives at bay, but not vice-versa.

 

Tbh, I don't know enough about political history to give you an argument (though I dare say @Alf Bentley will, if there's one to be had... ).

 

My point was nothing more of an observation of the facts: by aiding and abetting Tory austerity, the Liberals have been cast into the political wilderness. The Left will never forgive them, while the Right view them with contempt: like Julius Ceasar, they love treachery but hate traitors.

[String fellow]

13 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Tbh, I don't know enough about political history to give you an argument (though I dare say @Alf Bentley will, if there's one to be had... ).

 

My point was nothing more of an observation of the facts: by aiding and abetting Tory austerity, the Liberals have been cast into the political wilderness. The Left will never forgive them, while the Right view them with contempt: like Julius Ceasar, they love treachery but hate traitors.

Yond Cassius has a mean and hungry look. He thinks too much, such men are dangerous. For Cassius, read String fellow!

[LiberalFox]

29 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Tbh, I don't know enough about political history to give you an argument (though I dare say @Alf Bentley will, if there's one to be had... ).

 

My point was nothing more of an observation of the facts: by aiding and abetting Tory austerity, the Liberals have been cast into the political wilderness. The Left will never forgive them, while the Right view them with contempt: like Julius Ceasar, they love treachery but hate traitors.

It's quite likely the Lib Dems would have suffered whatever course of action they took. Austerity was popular in 2010 and even still is today. Our politics doesn't handle more than two parties very well. 

[Alf Bentley]

15 hours ago, Buce said:

 

Tbh, I don't know enough about political history to give you an argument (though I dare say @Alf Bentley will, if there's one to be had... ).

 

My point was nothing more of an observation of the facts: by aiding and abetting Tory austerity, the Liberals have been cast into the political wilderness. The Left will never forgive them, while the Right view them with contempt: like Julius Ceasar, they love treachery but hate traitors.

 

I was only cracking silly jokes, not seeking an argument. Stop stitching me up! 

 

But since you call me by name....

 

The 1970s Lib-Lab Pact was a confidence and supply agreement, not a coalition, but that's quibbling. The LDs were perfectly entitled to form a coalition with the Tories - and there's a strong argument that it was the responsible thing to do.

Given the electoral numbers, any coalition with Labour in 2010 would've been potentially unstable, as it would have had to also include the SNP and others (Plaid? Greens? SDLP?). The 5-year coalition also gave the LDs a rare opportunity to show the public that they were a competent party of govt - a great opportunity, in theory.

 

With hindsight, where I reckon it went wrong for the LDs was their priorities in coalition - or at least the public perception of them. I'm sure @LiberalFoxwill claim that the LDs softened Tory policy 2010-15 and that there would have been more austerity and more illiberalism without the LD input. There might even be some truth in that - but the perception is that they mainly acted as handmaidens for Tory austerity. They got certain concessions (cabinet posts, alternative vote referendum, fixed-term parliaments act) but apparently not in the areas that really affected people's everyday lives - incomes, living standards, public services etc. And I say that as someone who strongly supports electoral reform.

 

I don't know if any research has been done into the reasons for the slump in the LD vote in 2015, but I assume:

- Those who supported austerity politics saw no reason to vote for the minor austerity party, when they could vote for the major austerity party, the Tories

- Those who opposed austerity politics rejected the LDs and voted for Labour or other parties.

 

2015 election figures are complicated due to the surge in support for UKIP and the SNP, but here are the nationwide vote change figures (2015 v. 2010):

Con +0.8%, Lab +1.5%, LD -15.1% (from 23%), UKIP +9.5%, SNP +3.1%

 

There's clearly a lot of churn there. Lab lost lots of votes to the SNP - and the UKIP votes will have mainly come from the Tories and Labour, not the LDs.

That suggests that most 2010 LD voters switched to either Labour or Tory in 2015 - voting for Labour as the main anti-austerity party (in Eng/Wales) or for the Tories as the main pro-austerity party?

 

Anyway, I was just cracking silly jokes. I don't hate the LDs. For various reasons, I voted for them in 2001 & 2005. Hell, if someone offered me the prospect of LD Govts for my lifetime, I'd be delighted!

They're in a difficult position now, though. The pro-EU stance is unlikely to attract many voters. Labour now have a competent (if unexciting) leader, who'll get a lot more media coverage than the LDs, who have an unexciting leader themselves.

Will they recover some of their support in their SW heartlands, now that Brexit is off the agenda? Looking dubious.....and what happens if they lose most of their few remaining seats in 2024 (a distinct possibility)? Davey needs to come up with some great new ideas within 2-3 years.....

[BlueSi13]

Looks like the Brexit/Reform party is going to save Labour in Hartlepool again.

[Magictv]

10 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Looks like the Brexit/Reform party is going to save Labour in Hartlepool again.

A good example of how shit our FPTP system is