Coronavirus Thread

[FoxesDeb]

I've noticed all the people shouting 'protect the vulnerable so we can live our lives' have gone incredibly quiet since they were asked, several times, to explain how this would actually be possible in practice. 

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, Otis said:

current average is 1 per million per day

 

Most people live - or aspire to live - for more than 1 day, so might be interested in the risk beyond 1 day.

 

Tell you what, though, if you take the death rate per hour, that would make the "average death" less than 1 per 20 million......or quote the rate per second as the "average death", even better! 

[Otis]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Most people live - or aspire to live - for more than 1 day, so might be interested in the risk beyond 1 day.

 

Tell you what, though, if you take the death rate per hour, that would make the "average death" less than 1 per 20 million......or quote the rate per second as the "average death", even better! 

odd?

 

Get it into proportion with the overall death rate per day...1600 people

Sadly people die every day, a tiny propotion die from Covid, yet this is all that is ever talked about.

There's more worrying thing out there to catch.

 

Project fear is working well, i just can't work out what they are gaining from it.

 

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Otis said:

odd?

 

Get it into proportion with the overall death rate per day...1600 people

Sadly people die every day, a tiny propotion die from Covid, yet this is all that is ever talked about.

There's more worrying thing out there to catch.

 

Project fear is working well, i just can't work out what they are gaining from it.

 

 

42,515 deaths (taking the lower, official figure, not excess deaths) 

---------

66.65m population

 

= 638 deaths per million so far

 

Yes, most people are still alive and people die of all sorts of things......but the thing is to avoid people dying needlessly, if possible - or suffering long-term debilitation (higher figure).

With a strong, though not certain chance of a vaccine within 6 months, why take unnecessary risks?

 

That's not to support any particular govt measure, just the "we've just got to get on and live/die with it" attitude.....though my response to your post was simply a desire to avoid dishonest stats......

"Leicester City had a 100% record in the 2019-20 season (if you only count the match at Southampton)".....bit similar to you quoting a stat per day to make it sound insignificant.

42515 or higher and rising is not insignificant. 638 deaths per million is still a small minority, but nowhere near as small as 1 per million!

[iniesta]

14 minutes ago, Otis said:

odd?

 

Get it into proportion with the overall death rate per day...1600 people

Sadly people die every day, a tiny propotion die from Covid, yet this is all that is ever talked about.

There's more worrying thing out there to catch.

 

Project fear is working well, i just can't work out what they are gaining from it.

 

the 'great reset' 

[iniesta]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

42,515 deaths (taking the lower, official figure, not excess deaths) 

---------

66.65m population

 

= 638 deaths per million so far

 

Yes, most people are still alive and people die of all sorts of things......but the thing is to avoid people dying needlessly, if possible - or suffering long-term debilitation (higher figure).

With a strong, though not certain chance of a vaccine within 6 months, why take unnecessary risks?

 

That's not to support any particular govt measure, just the "we've just got to get on and live/die with it" attitude.....though my response to your post was simply a desire to avoid dishonest stats......

"Leicester City had a 100% record in the 2019-20 season (if you only count the match at Southampton)".....bit similar to you quoting a stat per day to make it sound insignificant.

42515 or higher and rising is not insignificant. 638 deaths per million is still a small minority, but nowhere near as small as 1 per million!

any evidence this is happening? 

[Otis]

4 minutes ago, iniesta said:

the 'great reset' 

What does that acheive?

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, iniesta said:

any evidence this is happening? 

 

Yes. Google "long Covid" or similar.

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, iniesta said:

any evidence this is happening? 

Depends what you mean by debilitation

 

the rise of post viral syndrome (which used to be misunderstood pre this viral outbreak) is likely the biggest issue for us to deal with in the long term fall out. I’ve seen it in my close family and it can be pretty grim for the sufferer for many years ......

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

So if they close the pubs what happens to the staff if they're ending furlough? Chin up get on with it? Can't be acceptable. 

[Otis]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

42,515 deaths (taking the lower, official figure, not excess deaths) 

---------

66.65m population

 

= 638 deaths per million so far

 

Yes, most people are still alive and people die of all sorts of things......but the thing is to avoid people dying needlessly, if possible - or suffering long-term debilitation (higher figure).

With a strong, though not certain chance of a vaccine within 6 months, why take unnecessary risks?

 

That's not to support any particular govt measure, just the "we've just got to get on and live/die with it" attitude.....though my response to your post was simply a desire to avoid dishonest stats......

"Leicester City had a 100% record in the 2019-20 season (if you only count the match at Southampton)".....bit similar to you quoting a stat per day to make it sound insignificant.

42515 or higher and rising is not insignificant. 638 deaths per million is still a small minority, but nowhere near as small as 1 per million!

the majority of the 42515 was during then spring, when the virus was new. I'm talking about recent/current figures as you know it's trickling along no higher than the normal flu for instance.

[Otis]

3 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

So if they close the pubs what happens to the staff if they're ending furlough? Chin up get on with it? Can't be acceptable. 

F.Knows

& the brewers, delivery drivers, cleaners, etc. it's a huge industry.

[Legend_in_blue]

It's becoming clearer and clearer that there is no middle ground with this.  Either you're in the camp of we believe everything we're being told and must do everything and anything we can possibly do to see this through.  Or you're in the camp of ever increasing skepticism where, although you go along with it, you don't really see the point of it and don't see a way out since you cannot stop naturally occurring respiratory conditions which take hold during a winter season.  

 

We come out of winter and we're back into March.  What then?  x per 100 000 is still there and then what?

 

 

[FoxesDeb]

16 minutes ago, Otis said:

the majority of the 42515 was during then spring, when the virus was new. I'm talking about recent/current figures as you know it's trickling along no higher than the normal flu for instance.

So the current restrictions are working then?

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, Otis said:

the majority of the 42515 was during then spring, when the virus was new. I'm talking about recent/current figures as you know it's trickling along no higher than the normal flu for instance.

 

The majority of the 42,515 so far was during the spring. No reason to think that numbers cannot surge again (though possibly at a slower rate).

Particularly when hospitalisation rates are rising and death rates are rising compared to a few weeks ago (though much lower than in the spring so far).

 

If your aim is simply to find the lowest possible figures to suit your argument, you should ignore recent/current figures and just quote figures from August - they were lower then than now. 

 

No point taking this dialogue any further, as it's not getting anywhere. We've made our points.

[Otis]

 

It's becoming clearer and clearer that there is no middle ground with this.  Either you're in the camp of we believe everything we're being told and must do everything and anything we can possibly do to see this through.  Or you're in the camp of ever increasing skepticism where, although you go along with it, you don't really see the point of it and don't see a way out since you cannot stop naturally occurring respiratory conditions which take hold during a winter season.  

 

We come out of winter and we're back into March.  What then?  x per 100 000 is still there and then what?

 

 

Exactly.

The flu vaccine is only 50% effective. So it will never completly disappear.

People rarely change their opinion and i know i won't change opinions, i'm just showing the view from the otherside, which many well respected poeple & doctors agree with.

[Otis]

5 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

So the current restrictions are working then?

Yes, basic restrictions fine, but closing down large parts of the country is madness.

[CosbehFox]

14 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

It's becoming clearer and clearer that there is no middle ground with this.  Either you're in the camp of we believe everything we're being told and must do everything and anything we can possibly do to see this through.  Or you're in the camp of ever increasing skepticism where, although you go along with it, you don't really see the point of it and don't see a way out since you cannot stop naturally occurring respiratory conditions which take hold during a winter season.  

 

We come out of winter and we're back into March.  What then?  x per 100 000 is still there and then what?

 

 

Personally I disagree completely on the notion that there is no middle ground. 
 

Plenty of folk out there what want to us be sensible with rules/restrictions whilst maintaining some form of an economy. 
 

Its just you’ll find they are not so vocal with it or their argument includes nuance. 
 

The wider point being that debate is increasingly viewed in extremes 

[Leicester_Loyal]

11 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Personally I disagree completely on the notion that there is no middle ground. 
 

Plenty of folk out there what want to us be sensible with rules/restrictions whilst maintaining some form of an economy. 
 

Its just you’ll find they are not so vocal with it or their argument includes nuance. 
 

The wider point being that debate is increasingly viewed in extremes 

I think that's where most of us are, I just can't be arsed to post my opinions because I'll end up having arguments for hours with the same people on here.

 

PS. Don't close the pubs Boris

[Kopfkino]

20 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Personally I disagree completely on the notion that there is no middle ground. 
 

Plenty of folk out there what want to us be sensible with rules/restrictions whilst maintaining some form of an economy. 
 

Its just you’ll find they are not so vocal with it or their argument includes nuance. 
 

The wider point being that debate is increasingly viewed in extremes 

 

It really doesn't help when people come along and insist on creating adversarial boxes to place people into and anyone that doesn't verbatim agree with them goes in the opposite box to them.

[Legend_in_blue]

So now we're being told from Monday the pubs will shut once again.  The BBC has become the oracle when it comes to announcing govt measures in advance of them happening.

 

So, two weeks on, the 10pm curfew hasn't worked.  What happens when closing the pubs down completely doesn't work either?

[twoleftfeet]

2 hours ago, joachim1965 said:

we have to, it ain't going away no matter how long you hide from it.

 

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

You should tell all those thousands of scientists worldwide who are wasting their money working on a vaccine - and are optimistic (with no guarantees) that one might be available by the spring.

 

They'll be pleased to be put right by a better-informed chap like yourself. Could save them a lot of money when they halt all their pointless research.

Why does Joachim need to tell the scientists, they already know it, if it was going to just go away they wouldnt be investing time and money in to research of this virus on the scale that they are. They may well be optimistic but they also know that not all drugs work i.e viagra was unsuccessful but had a terrific unplanned side effect.

Spring try end of October or do you want to tell the CEO of pfizer he is wrong.

 

[Corky]

15 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

So now we're being told from Monday the pubs will shut once again.  The BBC has become the oracle when it comes to announcing govt measures in advance of them happening.

 

So, two weeks on, the 10pm curfew hasn't worked.  What happens when closing the pubs down completely doesn't work either?

Apparently the pubs in "the North" will shut. How far down that covers I've no idea.

[bovril]

1 minute ago, Corky said:

Apparently the pubs in "the North" will shut. How far down that covers I've no idea.

above Watford, obviously

[dsr-burnley]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Number of deaths on the seven day average - yes 

 

now up to 53 which is where we were at the beginning of July.  In early September, that measure was barely making double figures.  I’m sad that some posters seem to be unable to comprehend that people get ill weeks before they will die.  Staying relaxed and allowing cases to grow and consequently deaths that will undoubtedly follow to levels which public opinion won’t allow, is surely the worst option as the restrictions which will be brought in would be more draconian. If you believe that health workers should be forced to play Russian roulette and catch this then shame on you. 
 

and to the few who haven’t come across this illness ..... it’s real and you don’t want in your household or family.....

There will be more than a few who haven't come across this illness.  Fewer than 1 in 100 people have tested positive, and many of those who tested positive have barely come across the illness.  After all, 17 people at Leyton Orient FC had it, 16 people at Sale RFU had it, and in both cases they didn't know they had it until everyone was tested.  

 

The problem is not just that coronavirus has caused deaths, and it's possible but unlikely that it will cause as many again.  That's only part of the problem.  The problem is also that the solution to coronavirus has caused deaths and other problems, and will continue to do so.  Schools closed for another 6 months, another 40,000 cancer referrals missed, cervical, prostate and breast cancer clinics suspended, doctors' surgeries remain closed or practically so, dementia patients getting rapidly worse because they cannot get any of the recommended ways of keeping their minds active.  And 2 million operations cancelled already; that's two million people whose eyesight is not being improved, whose ruined joints are not being replaced, whose early stage cancer is being allowed to become later stage cancer.  And of course millions of jobs lost.  And I would predict (though no-one is going to say so yet) that retirement age will be up at least another year to pay for all this lot.

 

It's not that easy, for me at least, to look at the way the death rate has risen since August and compare it with the way the death rate rose in March and think the two are similar.  To me, they look vastly different, and the September figures look very much like a ripple not a wave.  Maybe I;m wrong.  But another lockdown would be a solution worse than the cure IMO.  THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT I DON'T CARE ABOUT DOCTORS, NURSES AND PEOPLE GENERALLY.  The argument "you disagree with me so you should be ashamed" is no argument at all.