Coronavirus Thread

[Mapperleyfox]

9 hours ago, Desabafar said:

2.3% of total tests? 

last thursday there were 48 deaths. the median time to dying from symptoms is 18 days but we will say two weeks so the Thursday two weeks before 242273 tests was done. 2.3% is 5572. 5572 false positives but there were only 4637 cases. so we had 48 deaths from -935 cases?

The other fly in the ointment is whether the deaths were even from COVID in the first place. Which evidence suggests many probably aren't.

[Desabafar]

1 minute ago, Mapperleyfox said:

The other fly in the ointment is whether the deaths were even from COVID in the first place. Which evidence suggests many probably aren't.

what evidence?

[Mapperleyfox]

1 minute ago, Desabafar said:

what evidence?

Read the news or google it. If you aren't familiar with the fact that deaths can and are being registered as COVID when it hasn't been the cause or primary cause then what can I say? 

 

I think you know it's going on but it's probably at odds with what you believe or what the media are telling you. Each to their own - lots of conflicting info/data/views out there.

 

 

[Magictv]

This thread has gone ****ing bananas

[Desabafar]

6 minutes ago, Mapperleyfox said:

Read the news or google it. If you aren't familiar with the fact that deaths can and are being registered as COVID when it hasn't been the cause or primary cause then what can I say? 

 

I think you know it's going on but it's probably at odds with what you believe or what the media are telling you. Each to their own - lots of conflicting info/data/views out there.

 

 

if at odds with what the media are telling me how can i read it in the news

where is proven evidence that covid deaths arent covid deaths

[foxile5]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Shameful. 

 

 

Thing is the population is now full of bootlickers who won't face any criticism of the tory government. There's been so much staunch support that, for some, it is impossible to let go of the support. 

[Nalis]

21 minutes ago, Magictv said:

This thread has gone ****ing bananas

Combination of the doom mongers who cant wait for death rates to increase in 14 days just to say 'i told you so' and the extreme deniers/conspiracy theorists.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

36 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

if at odds with what the media are telling me how can i read it in the news

where is proven evidence that covid deaths arent covid deaths

COVID is mentioned on the death certificate but it doesn’t naturally mean that was the cause of death so I believe.

People will die for many numerous reasons and some will also have covid at the time of death.

[joachim1965]

57 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

that is the rate of death in population, what is rate of death for people with the virus?

That is the death rate of people with the virus, 67 deaths is a rate of 1 person per million.

That is the only figure that counts when policies reducing and taking away peoples freedoms are being rolled out.

Some perspective is needed.

[Desabafar]

4 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

That is the death rate of people with the virus, 67 deaths is a rate of 1 person per million.

That is the only figure that counts when policies reducing and taking away peoples freedoms are being rolled out.

Some perspective is needed.

 

no i ask what is the death rate of people infected not the death rate in the whole population right now. if the death rate is 1 per million, the uk could only ever have 67 deaths in total ever

[yorkie1999]

Is there anywhere that gives the information for cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to covid in Leicestershire?

[Mapperleyfox]

1 hour ago, Desabafar said:

if at odds with what the media are telling me how can i read it in the news

where is proven evidence that covid deaths arent covid deaths

Where is proven evidence that they are? Anyone can play the game.

 

You're obviously free to believe whatever narrative you want. It's part and parcel of a democracy isn't it? 

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, Desabafar said:

if at odds with what the media are telling me how can i read it in the news

where is proven evidence that covid deaths arent covid deaths

Here's proof that one of them isn't really a covid death.  The only question now is how many more deaths are primarily caused by something else.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-51941732#:~:text=A man in his 40s,was diagnosed as Covid-19.

[MonmoreStef]

39 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Is there anywhere that gives the information for cases, hospitalisations and deaths due to covid in Leicestershire?

I can’t answer the question but the figure I have always wanted to know is how many people have been admitted to hospital purely because of Covid. There was a doctor on Central News the other day saying there was 100 plus patients in his hospital being treated for Covid but he conveniently failed to say how many of them were there purely because of the virus. Obviously there’s going to be some but it’s highly likely that many have purely tested positive whilst in hospital with something more serious. Just like my mates dad who was dying of cancer when he tested positive a week before his death. 

[Mapperleyfox]

43 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

COVID is mentioned on the death certificate but it doesn’t naturally mean that was the cause of death so I believe.

People will die for many numerous reasons and some will also have covid at the time of death.

Ok try to follow this scenario....

 

My understanding (might be wrong) is that I could test 'positive' for COVID. First it might be a false positive, but it goes on the Case Stats anyway. Then I die in a car accident within 28 days of my positive test. It's acceptable therefore during the post-mortem to put my death as an 'assumptive' COVID death. Which also goes on the Death Stats.

 

For deaths to be recorded as COVID the doctors don't have to be certain it's the cause, just that it could/might be. It's bonkers.

 

 

 

 

[joachim1965]

1 hour ago, Desabafar said:

 

no i ask what is the death rate of people infected not the death rate in the whole population right now. if the death rate is 1 per million, the uk could only ever have 67 deaths in total ever

per day.

Do you shut down a country because 1person per million per day dies of a particular illness.

[yorkie1999]

45 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

I can’t answer the question but the figure I have always wanted to know is how many people have been admitted to hospital purely because of Covid. There was a doctor on Central News the other day saying there was 100 plus patients in his hospital being treated for Covid but he conveniently failed to say how many of them were there purely because of the virus. Obviously there’s going to be some but it’s highly likely that many have purely tested positive whilst in hospital with something more serious. Just like my mates dad who was dying of cancer when he tested positive a week before his death. 

That's a coincidence, but the family refused to have the cause of death being covid because it may eventually reduce the funding for cancer research.

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, Magictv said:

This thread has gone ****ing bananas

It's a shame, but it isn't any different to a lot of other threads I've read on the subject with pet conspiracy theories being floated here there and everywhere.

 

I just wish that people would feel the need to qualify their remarks as unsubstantiated opinion rather than as fact, for the sake of people reading the thread who might buy into what they say.

[Nalis]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's a shame, but it isn't any different to a lot of other threads I've read on the subject with pet conspiracy theories being floated here there and everywhere.

 

I just wish that people would feel the need to qualify their remarks as unsubstantiated opinion rather than as fact, for the sake of people reading the thread who might buy into what they say.

I would hope people would formulate their opinions from a range of sources as not just foxestalk, key word being hope.

[yorkie1999]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's a shame, but it isn't any different to a lot of other threads I've read on the subject with pet conspiracy theories being floated here there and everywhere.

 

I just wish that people would feel the need to qualify their remarks as unsubstantiated opinion rather than as fact, for the sake of people reading the thread who might buy into what they say.

It'd be a rather short thread then if that's the case.

[Desabafar]

28 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

per day.

Do you shut down a country because 1person per million per day dies of a particular illness.

u r not answering my question. i have asked what percent of people who have covid die. u keep responding with the death as a rate to the population as awhole.

 

u said deaths arent increasing. i said they are. u said it was bollox. i showed the data. u moved the goalposts without admitting they are.

u say there are lots of false positives.u give me a number which means there were negative cases.

u give me a range. i use the lowest number in that range to show that if there r lots of false cases, the death rate for people with covid is higher so it is more deadly. u respond with population death rate which says nothing of the rate that people die if they have the illness. 

in germany they estimated the death rate to be 0.3%.the figures of 47 people dying on thrudays would mean that there were 47/0.003 cases. this is 15666. this is higher than official cases.

 

either there are lots of false cases and the death rate is much higher or the death rate is low and the number of cases is below official. 

[leicsmac]

33 minutes ago, Nalis said:

I would hope people would formulate their opinions from a range of sources as not just foxestalk, key word being hope.

I'd hope for the same. Unfortunately, from what I can tell the same unsubstantiated stuff with a veneer of authority is being touted in quite a few other popular places too.

 

33 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

It'd be a rather short thread then if that's the case.

A much shorter one. Perhaps a more informative one, though.

 

Edit: actually thinking about it, it would be the same length. There wouldn't be people not contributing, it would just be better if they qualified their contributions.

 

Edited 6 October 2020 by leicsmac

[joachim1965]

1 hour ago, Desabafar said:

u r not answering my question. i have asked what percent of people who have covid die. u keep responding with the death as a rate to the population as awhole.

 

u said deaths arent increasing. i said they are. u said it was bollox. i showed the data. u moved the goalposts without admitting they are.

u say there are lots of false positives.u give me a number which means there were negative cases.

u give me a range. i use the lowest number in that range to show that if there r lots of false cases, the death rate for people with covid is higher so it is more deadly. u respond with population death rate which says nothing of the rate that people die if they have the illness. 

in germany they estimated the death rate to be 0.3%.the figures of 47 people dying on thrudays would mean that there were 47/0.003 cases. this is 15666. this is higher than official cases.

 

either there are lots of false cases and the death rate is much higher or the death rate is low and the number of cases is below official. 

I would say that the death rate is low and the number of actual cases is way below official figures. The actual death rate of people actually dying from the illness is difficult to ascertain as the death figures include deaths from any cause but within 28 days if a positive test.

[boots60]

32 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

I would say that the death rate is low and the number of actual cases is way below official figures. The actual death rate of people actually dying from the illness is difficult to ascertain as the death figures include deaths from any cause but within 28 days if a positive test.

Donald Trump has confirmed that science, medicine and doctors are a load of bullshit.

The US president, whose life was just saved by cutting-edge Covid-19 treatments, held a post-hospital press conference where he advised everyone to burn their face masks and ignore doctors.

He continued: “While I was in hospital getting pumped full of medicines to stop me dying, I had a lot of time to reflect on what a bunch of losers these doctors are.

“They’re telling us to be afraid, to wear face coverings like a bunch of Muslims and even to hide our faces when we’re coughing like we’re scared of a little cough.

“They don’t even realise that even if you get the bug it doesn’t matter because you’ll get taken straight to your own private ward in a beautiful hospital with a unbelievable team of physicians whose sole job is to keep you alive.

“And the drugs they give you are just phenomenal. The most incredible drugs. At one point I was so out of it that I thought my attractive daughter was actually my wife.”

He concluded: “So don’t be afraid and don’t believe science. There is no coronavirus and I just beat it all on my own. Amazing. Thank you.”

[Kopfkino]

4 hours ago, Mapperleyfox said:

Ok try to follow this scenario....

 

My understanding (might be wrong) is that I could test 'positive' for COVID. First it might be a false positive, but it goes on the Case Stats anyway. Then I die in a car accident within 28 days of my positive test. It's acceptable therefore during the post-mortem to put my death as an 'assumptive' COVID death. Which also goes on the Death Stats.

 

For deaths to be recorded as COVID the doctors don't have to be certain it's the cause, just that it could/might be. It's bonkers.

 

 

 

 

Let's make a rough, basic estimate of the amount of people we'd expect to die of non-Covid cause in a population the size of the official Covid death toll

- Let's take the number of people that are registered as having died within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK, currently 42369.

- Let's assume that they are all over the age of 65. For ease, we'll have to assume that it's a representative sample of over 65s, it isn't because those that have died from Covid were more likely to have conditions that might cause mortality, more likely to be men etc. We will get an underestimation as a result.

- Let's use the ONS's stats for leading causes of deaths in the over 65s last year (I've excluded flu and pneumonia) and make them a proportion of the total over 65s, roughly 12m. The ONS stats actually breakdown cancers by type so they are separate causes but I've included it as all neoplasms.

- We can say that the Covid deaths cover a period of roughly 7 months and let's just the Covid death within 28 days of a test covers exactly one month too, so that's the timeframe we will use for other deaths. For ease, we must assume that they are evenly spread across those 7 months, in reality they weren't because a huge chunk came in a 2 month period. This means I'm designating an equal risk of, for example a heart attack, across 7 months to people who only didn't get the full 7 months of risk. Creates an overestimation.

 

	Annual	7 months	7 month deaths as a proportion of over 65 population	Expected deaths when n=42369
Neoplasms	122077	71212	0.005934298611	251
Dementia and Alzheimer disease	66155	38590	0.003215868056	136
Ischaemic heart diseases	46493	27121	0.002260076389	96
Chronic lower respiratory diseases	28235	16470	0.001372534722	58
Cerebrovascular diseases	27210	15873	0.001322708333	56
				598

 

So for the applying the rate of the 5 leading causes of deaths in over 65s last year we would have expected 598 deaths in a sample of 42369. So then it follows that we could say that 598 of the 42369 that have died within 28 days of a positive result died of something that was absolutely nothing to do with Covid. 

 

This doesn't deal with the interactions of illnesses, for example Covid killing people off who were weak/didn't have long left anyway. It just states how many people you might have expected to die within a sample which can then be extended to give a picture of people that could have had a positive test but died of something not Covid related, just from usual leading cause of deaths

 

We can do it for other things. Let's take your road traffic accident example. Road traffic accident deaths are roughly 1800 every year, 150 monthly, so 1050 every 7 months. For super simplicity just to illustrate the point, let's pretend every single one was over 65. In our sample of 42369, 4 people would have died in a 7 month period. Or 6507 people died as a result of suicide in 2018, monthly that's 542 and so over 7 months that's 3796. Again super simplicity for consistency, let's pretend they were all over 65, our sample 42369 produces 13 deaths.

 

Long story short, you're dealing with low numbers and the fact you have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test gives you quite a high likelihood that it was Covid that was, at least in some part, responsible.