Coronavirus Thread

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

Is this for real? Surely not needing a medical pass to come out your house. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840117/Coronavirus-UK-Seven-day-quarantine-travel-quarantine-plan-unveiled.html

 

Forgot to add the link, my bad.

[Guest Harrydc]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840117/Coronavirus-UK-Seven-day-quarantine-travel-quarantine-plan-unveiled.html

 

Forgot to add the link, my bad.

Ah apologies. I believed you was talking about this plan for a lockdown in October. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Quarantine of 2 weeks set to be scrapped, instead they'll be quarantine for a week then you take a COVID test, if it's negative you can come out. This will be paid for by the traveller.

The whole quarantine whilst returning from travelling abroad is ridiculous, there is far more corona virus in the UK than there is where I am in the Canarias. Not only are we destroying our own travel industry but we are also destroying the livelihoods of thousands of people who rely on British tourists, it’s desperately sad to see so many restaurants closed and stores up for sale. The impact of COVID is destroying lives everywhere and not just the people who are sadly dying from it.

[Guest Fktf]

1 minute ago, martyn said:

Right @joachim1965 except those swine flu and bird flu forecasts are completely and utterly irrelevant when it comes to the actual tangible statistics around Covid. 

 

We have 40000+ dead, likely more judging by ONS statistics, with maybe 6-10% or so of the UK population having been infected. Do the maths

 

Fine to have an opinion about opening up being the best route forward for the country, but not fine to use misinformation to do it. 

So true. There's some posters on here that say let it rip, deal with the deaths. I won't ever agree with that, I'll argue against it vehemently, but it is at least an honest stance from those posters - and I can respect that even if I stongly disagree with it.

 

The posters using vague comparisons to other countries, misleading data, sometimes outright fake data, or claiming they've found the true science that 'the mainstream' ignores. It's all a bit desperate really. Those posters should just own what they think.

[Legend_in_blue]

2 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

Are you pissed? 

I didn't draw the blue bars.

[dsr-burnley]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The poor use of illustrative data continues into another day on the BBC...

 

 

We'll title it a prediction but then call it an illustration and not a prediction in the small print though.

The biggest misinformation on that graph is the number 79,800 in the top right.  Someone - I presume an innumerate BBC scandal hunter, not Professor Keeling who is a professor of maths at Warwick - has seen 950 deaths on the 2nd January, interpreted that to mean 950 deaths every day between October 10th and 2nd January, and multiplied by 84 to get 79,800 "predicted" deaths by that date.  I can't believe the error is Keeling's; I bet he is spitting feathers about having his name attached to such incompetence.

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

Got a link? Wouldn't mind listening myself.

 

 

This is the same guy on masks.  From there you've got videos from a UK scientist who basically rips into SAGE and how their initial mathematical model was based on no prior immunity at all, which in itself he argues is flawed.

[Legend_in_blue]

3 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

The biggest misinformation on that graph is the number 79,800 in the top right.  Someone - I presume an innumerate BBC scandal hunter, not Professor Keeling who is a professor of maths at Warwick - has seen 950 deaths on the 2nd January, interpreted that to mean 950 deaths every day between October 10th and 2nd January, and multiplied by 84 to get 79,800 "predicted" deaths by that date.  I can't believe the error is Keeling's; I bet he is spitting feathers about having his name attached to such incompetence.

The problem is many people do not have the statistical understanding to unpick it and will just look at the curve and think oh, that looks bad.

 

It's shocking reporting.  The BBCs incompetence with this has resulted in me looking elsewhere to find a proper balanced view.  The BBC sadly is not it.

[simFox]

7 hours ago, Fktf said:

So true. There's some posters on here that say let it rip, deal with the deaths. I won't ever agree with that, I'll argue against it vehemently, but it is at least an honest stance from those posters - and I can respect that even if I stongly disagree with it.

 

The posters using vague comparisons to other countries, misleading data, sometimes outright fake data, or claiming they've found the true science that 'the mainstream' ignores. It's all a bit desperate really. Those posters should just own what they think.

Likewise, so should lockdown lovers. Own all the misery, job losses, social and economic destruction, non Covid deaths, mental health issues, suicides and our children's lack of education. 

 

We'll own the covid deaths, which will be a blip in comparison. And here's the rub, as well as owning all that stuff, you'll still OWN the covid deaths. That's the bit that you just don't understand. You already own the 40k.

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-medic-s-case-against-another-lockdown

 

This has now been done for lockdowns. In August, the Lancet published an analysis of data from 50 countries. The researchers found that full lockdowns were 'not associated' with decreased mortality from Covid-19. These are hard outcome data; reality cannot be waved away with theories or projections. 

Edited 15 October 2020 by simFox

[Rain King]

Went to bed feeling fine. Been up since 3 non stop coughing and really aching whilst feeling hot/cold continuously.

 

Going to have to book a test I think, not looking forward to that having see the Mrs have it a few months ago. 

[Milo]

28 minutes ago, simFox said:

Likewise, so should lockdown lovers. Own all the misery, job losses, social and economic destruction, non Covid deaths, mental health issues, suicides and our children's lack of education. 

 

We'll own the covid deaths, which will be a blip in comparison. And here's the rub, as well as owning all that stuff, you'll still OWN the covid deaths. That's the bit that you just don't understand. You already own the 40k.

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-medic-s-case-against-another-lockdown

 

This has now been done for lockdowns. In August, the Lancet published an analysis of data from 50 countries. The researchers found that full lockdowns were 'not associated' with decreased mortality from Covid-19. These are hard outcome data; reality cannot be waved away with theories or projections. 

For balance, the Lancet also published today information from 80 odd scientists saying that herd immunity was a fallacy and stopping community spread until a vaccine is found was the way to go. 
 

 

 

[joachim1965]

37 minutes ago, Milo said:

For balance, the Lancet also published today information from 80 odd scientists saying that herd immunity was a fallacy and stopping community spread until a vaccine is found was the way to go. 
 

 

 

What does a vaccine do.

It produces herd immunity, so to say herd immunity is a fallacy is ridiculous. 

Herd immunity is the only way out of this madness , however we achieve it , naturally or with a vaccine is irrelevant, at some point it must be achieved. 

The biggest problem with natural herd immunity is the big pharmaceutical companies will then not make billions out of  a rushed through vaccine.

Edited 15 October 2020 by joachim1965

[UniFox21]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

Likewise, so should lockdown lovers. Own all the misery, job losses, social and economic destruction, non Covid deaths, mental health issues, suicides and our children's lack of education. 

 

We'll own the covid deaths, which will be a blip in comparison. And here's the rub, as well as owning all that stuff, you'll still OWN the covid deaths. That's the bit that you just don't understand. You already own the 40k.

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-medic-s-case-against-another-lockdown

 

This has now been done for lockdowns. In August, the Lancet published an analysis of data from 50 countries. The researchers found that full lockdowns were 'not associated' with decreased mortality from Covid-19. These are hard outcome data; reality cannot be waved away with theories or projections. 

Are the findings statistically significant or just an association/trend? 

 

Also lockdown was brought in to stop the NHS being completely overwhelmed, reduce transmission and to protect those most at risk. Many people predicted cases would rise again once we hit autumn/winter.

 

Every post you make is framed as an "us" vs "them" argument, as if anyone without your view is abhorrently wrong and responsible for every single death, which is absurd.

[UniFox21]

2 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

What does a vaccine do.

It produces herd immunity, so to say herd immunity is a fallacy is ridiculous. 

Herd immunity is the only way out of this madness , however we achieve it , naturally or with a vaccine is irrelevant, at some point it must be achieved. 

And the herd immunity strategy they're referring to is via infection and recovery, not at all related to a vaccine, which is clearly addressed in that extract. 

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

Likewise, so should lockdown lovers. Own all the misery, job losses, social and economic destruction, non Covid deaths, mental health issues, suicides and our children's lack of education. 

 

We'll own the covid deaths, which will be a blip in comparison. And here's the rub, as well as owning all that stuff, you'll still OWN the covid deaths. That's the bit that you just don't understand. You already own the 40k.

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-medic-s-case-against-another-lockdown

 

This has now been done for lockdowns. In August, the Lancet published an analysis of data from 50 countries. The researchers found that full lockdowns were 'not associated' with decreased mortality from Covid-19. These are hard outcome data; reality cannot be waved away with theories or projections. 

So what do you do in Liverpool now? NHS covid beds are 95% full and the local epidemic is still rising so they're going to be overwhelmed, and are going to have to cancel non covid related medical routines anyway to create extra capacity. 

 

It's not an either/or issue. It's to protect the NHS and ultimately, the quicker you lockdown, the quicker you come out, which means less of a hit to the economy. 

[Paninistickers]

35 minutes ago, Milo said:

For balance, the Lancet also published today information from 80 odd scientists saying that herd immunity was a fallacy and stopping community spread until a vaccine is found was the way to go. 
 

 

 

My own personal view is that herd Immunity is assumed to be like chicken pox....get it once or vaccinated, get immune, eventually it'll go away.

 

However, herd Immunity is, for me, likely to be about building resilience. It's a novel virus. The likelihood is humans will have to build resilience to this until, basically, it becomes less novel, like cold and flu.

 

 Most don't die of colds or flu. But some people  do. And covid seems to follow that sort of path

[UniFox21]

4 minutes ago, Lionator said:

So what do you do in Liverpool now? NHS covid beds are 95% full and the local epidemic is still rising so they're going to be overwhelmed, and are going to have to cancel non covid related medical routines anyway to create extra capacity. 

 

It's not an either/or issue. It's to protect the NHS and ultimately, the quicker you lockdown, the quicker you come out, which means less of a hit to the economy. 

Exactly, sooner they reduce transmission with restrictions in play, the sooner the NHS is able to manage the incoming patient numbers and sooner people are able to return to pubs/shops/restaurants.

Delay restrictions and the issues worsens, meaning lockdown is stricter and for longer

Edited 15 October 2020 by UniFox21

[Milo]

2 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

My own personal view is that herd Immunity is assumed to be like chicken pox....get it once or vaccinated, get immune, eventually it'll go away.

 

However, herd Immunity is, for me, likely to be about building resilience. It's a novel virus. The likelihood is humans will have to build resilience to this until, basically, it becomes less novel, like cold and flu.

 

 Most don't die of colds or flu. But some people  do. And covid seems to follow that sort of path

Don’t disagree with any of that. 
 

But we are still in incredibly early days of this, so to err on the side of caution regarding outbreak control until more information is known seems to be a fairly logical and sensible approach.

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

So what do you do in Liverpool now? NHS covid beds are 95% full and the local epidemic is still rising so they're going to be overwhelmed, and are going to have to cancel non covid related medical routines anyway to create extra capacity. 

 

It's not an either/or issue. It's to protect the NHS and ultimately, the quicker you lockdown, the quicker you come out, which means less of a hit to the economy. 

How many Covid beds have they allocated? Recently it was in the news about a major hospital up north having their Covid beds full, the reality was they had only allocated 8 or so beds for covid patients, so obviously they would be full with even a slight upturn in hospital admissions. 
 

A genuine question from anyone that may know, what have we actually done to prepare the NHS in the past 6 months? Surely we should be much better prepared now than we were then, but it seems like we have the same issue as previously, with everyone being shoved into the same wards (covid & non covid) and a lack of facilities. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

Exactly, sooner they reduce transmission with restrictions in play, the sooner the NHS is able to manage the incoming patient numbers and sooner people are able to return to pubs/shops/restaurants.

Delay restrictions and the issues worsens, meaning lockdown is stricter and for longer

When the hospital admissions were at an all time low and the daily deaths were at single figures the NHS was still not functioning properly. Ask me how I know, I know two people who had cancer screenings delayed and it’s now too late for both of them. I still can’t see my GP face to face and my local dentist has only done specific emergency appointments too. 

[UniFox21]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

When the hospital admissions were at an all time low and the daily deaths were at single figures the NHS was still not functioning properly. Ask me how I know, I know two people who had cancer screenings delayed and it’s now too late for both of them. I still can’t see my GP face to face and my local dentist has only done specific emergency appointments too. 

And this is a reason to not lockdown or implement restrictions? If cases are significantly rising, the NHS will get overwhelmed again causing more of these situations. 

 

In terms of GP's, you are able to see them face to face in situations the GP deems needs one. But reducing that contact in many cases is likely useful. Admittedly how docs run is a rabbit hole we could get stuck down. 

A friend works in a dentist, and the level of cleaning/protection needed to just do those emergency appointments is staggering to avoid infection or transmission. 1 patient and then there's like an hour of cleaning where the entire room is sterilized. 

 

I'm genuinely sorry for those two people though, that's never a nice situation to find yourself in. A similar thing happened to a friend of my Mum's a few years back. 

[joachim1965]

6 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

And the herd immunity strategy they're referring to is via infection and recovery, not at all related to a vaccine, which is clearly addressed in that extract. 

Herd immunity is not a fallacy as a strategy, it is natures way of keeping us alive and has been since time immemorial and would have done so this time, Boris and the government were going to go with herd immunity until professor Ferguson's wild claim that we would have half a million deaths.

[simFox]

6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

When the hospital admissions were at an all time low and the daily deaths were at single figures the NHS was still not functioning properly. Ask me how I know, I know two people who had cancer screenings delayed and it’s now too late for both of them. I still can’t see my GP face to face and my local dentist has only done specific emergency appointments too. 

Exactly, we had a lockdown to buy us time and allow us to prepare and we are still in the same situation. It's absurd that we can't put up a covid treatment centre with 1000 beds and send everyone with covid there, no, let's close an operating theatre and put 5 beds in instead. It's pathetic.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, UniFox21 said:

And this is a reason to not lockdown or implement restrictions? If cases are significantly rising, the NHS will get overwhelmed again causing more of these situations. 

 

In terms of GP's, you are able to see them face to face in situations the GP deems needs one. But reducing that contact in many cases is likely useful. Admittedly how docs run is a rabbit hole we could get stuck down. 

A friend works in a dentist, and the level of cleaning/protection needed to just do those emergency appointments is staggering to avoid infection or transmission. 1 patient and then there's like an hour of cleaning where the entire room is sterilized. 

 

I'm genuinely sorry for those two people though, that's never a nice situation to find yourself in. A similar thing happened to a friend of my Mum's a few years back. 

Oh nah we definitely still need restrictions, I’m just saying people keep saying we’re doing all this so the NHS can function properly, but it hasn’t been for months anyway. Even pre covid it was a mess. 

[leicsmac]

....And in the meantime, some countries around the world are actually managing to keep a lid on this thing and manage their economies without having to resort to extreme lockdowns or opening everything up and hoping for the best.

 

Funny thing, really.

Edited 15 October 2020 by leicsmac