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Coronavirus Thread

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On 13/10/2020 at 17:36, martyn said:

Absolute no brainer political move for Starmer this.

 

Scientists support him, it stops the "Captain Hindsight" retaliation, and it's likely the lockdown will come anyway, making it look like he effected it.

 

I thought exactly the same. The entire irony of this situation is that the government were opposed to a lockdown purely out of concerns for the economy and the resultant popular backlash which is one of the reasons that they kept pubs open until 10.00pm instead of immediately closing them altogether as was effected in parts of Scotland. The opposition is accusing the government of ignoring SAGE guidelines to impose full lockdown or as it has been termed the 'circuit breaker' but I'm confident that if labour were in power this is precisely the bold political decision and decisive action that they have consistently failed to demonstrate as a political party and would have immediately balked at. There is no way that Starmer would have sanctioned a national lockdown in the face of such vociferous public outrage and damage to people's livelihoods and incomes. Meanwhile the Tories, being the Tories, are more preoccupied with protecting the economy than people...although the two are inextricably linked.

 

This entire mess was caused by premature relaxation of restrictions - there's no other way of saying or seeing it, not a popular realisation, but it is one that a great many are in denial of. The cognitive dissonance astounds me. There's even a thread on this forum actually suggesting that "it's time for fans to be allowed back into grounds" ffs. 

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3 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

It's the 13th October today.  The last red bar on the graph.  Are we at 49,000 cases per day yet?

 

image.png.da2d36deafd77f8204461bd4dea42839.png

 Can't you Google the answer instead of asking here? In case you haven't noticed, your pretty coloured graph says 'if', 'approx',  and 'example'

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45 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

All this nonsense and likely we'll have another national lockdown over half term anyway. Couldn't make it up. 

Leicester half-term starts next week (19th), my kids finish on Thursday ( teacher day on Friday). So if they call a national lockdown over half-term for 2 weeks beginning Monday 26th,which is when the rest of the country break-up , the majority of pupils will only miss 1 weeks schooling, Local kids will miss 2 weeks, because they are due back on the 26th.

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13 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Surely Starmer looks at this and has to acknowledge that a circuit breaker now is premature.  By all means consider it mid-season but to do so now is surely an overreaction?  

 

 

SAGE would beg to differ. They are keen to impress that given the current rise in infections it is entirely likely that the number of deaths per day will have doubled by early November to 400 a day. Perhaps that's because they have informed expertise in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology and are preoccupied with applying their appreciable experience modelling infectious disease rates as opposed to posting scientifically illiterate total horseshit on a football forum. 

Edited by Line-X
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13 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Ok... What's your point? 

Isn't that obvious?

 

He's trying to discredit everything Whitty and Vallance say based on a tiny pretty irrelevant thing that they predicted it looks like we might be doubling in cases every week about a month ago whereas now it looks like it might be every 10-14 days, ignoring the fact they have years of experience in epidemiology and likely have a much greater understanding and access to the data than any of us do. And that the fact the X axis has shifted a little means they are wrong about everything, even if it just means we reach 50,000 cases a day 2 or 3 weeks later.

 

It's a classic poisoning the well, ready for later when the restrictions come in.

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5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Isn't that obvious?

 

He's trying to discredit everything Whitty and Vallance say based on a tiny pretty irrelevant thing that they predicted it looks like we might be doubling in cases every week about a month ago whereas now it looks like it might be every 10-14 days, ignoring the fact they have years of experience in epidemiology and likely have a much greater understanding and access to the data than any of us do. And that the fact the X axis has shifted a little means they are wrong about everything, even if it just means we reach 50,000 cases a day 2 or 3 weeks later.

 

It's a classic poisoning the well, ready for later when the restrictions come in.

Yes it was obvious, I just wanted him to confirm it lol I won't get an answer though, never really do. It will be something else tomorrow no doubt...

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3 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

The problem with all these people who want to 'take their own risk' is that it isn't just theirs to take. Presumably these people shop in the same places as everyone else, go to the same doctors, many will have work colleagues or children they can pass it on to, and then in turn it gets passed on to the vulnerable, many of whom also go to work, have school age children, and go shopping.

But if we carry on as we are there won't be any work to go to.

 

Genuine question, are you worried about your job?

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2 minutes ago, Otis said:

But if we carry on as we are there won't be any work to go to.

 

Genuine question, are you worried about your job?

Yes, my company is in the process of making around 5000 of us redundant. My soon to be husband is one of them, he already has a date to finish of 27th November. I don't know yet about my job, I'm further down the food chain, despite being told earlier in the year my job was safe, it's up in the air again. If I stay, I also have to sign a new contract with massively reduced terms and conditions, including less holiday, and more hours for the same salary. 

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3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I expect today’s deaths number of 140 is just a blip ........

 

serious question which I asked several times already - what is a seven day daily average death rate that is ‘acceptable’ ???

I think that depends on how long the dead people had left to live doesn't it? Maybe we should also rank them according to how sociable they were before they died, and what we deem is an acceptable period of time for them to be completely isolated so the rest of us can 'chance going down the pub with our mates' because we somehow have immunity and can't possibly pass it on to anyone else...

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2 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

I think that depends on how long the dead people had left to live doesn't it? Maybe we should also rank them according to how sociable they were before they died, and what we deem is an acceptable period of time for them to be completely isolated so the rest of us can 'chance going down the pub with our mates' because we somehow have immunity and can't possibly pass it on to anyone else...

Let’s assume that the average age remains over 80 as it is now.  I know that every death is a tragedy for a family but we aren’t going to keep the daily death rate below 100 through the ‘winter period’ ..... so what do people consider is an acceptable level for us to remain tier 2 across the nation .....

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1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Let’s assume that the average age remains over 80 as it is now.  I know that every death is a tragedy for a family but we aren’t going to keep the daily death rate below 100 through the ‘winter period’ ..... so what do people consider is an acceptable level for us to remain tier 2 across the nation .....

The problem is if hospitals become overwhelmed, that average age will plummet as those younger people who need the life saving treatments will be less likely to get them.

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1 minute ago, Lionator said:

The problem is if hospitals become overwhelmed, that average age will plummet as those younger people who need the life saving treatments will be less likely to get them.

Absolutely understand this ....I believe that we won’t see things worse than the spring (though NHS frontline staff will be over burdened again ) and it may be possible to maintain cancer treatments  etc but most elective surgery will be on hold for the coming six months ...

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18 minutes ago, Lionator said:

The problem is if hospitals become overwhelmed, that average age will plummet as those younger people who need the life saving treatments will be less likely to get them.

 

15 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Absolutely understand this ....I believe that we won’t see things worse than the spring (though NHS frontline staff will be over burdened again ) and it may be possible to maintain cancer treatments  etc but most elective surgery will be on hold for the coming six months ...

A lot of cancer patients haven't been getting treatment for months, even when we were having about about 5 deaths a day. You can't even get to see your bloody GP face to face, it's ridiculous. Genuinely don't see what the Government has done to help prepare the NHS in the 6 months they've had.

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Peru has now seen more than 0.1% of its population die from covid.

 

They're the country with the worst outbreak by population bar the micro-states.

 

Interesting to see when they approach herd immunity.

 

You would imagine at least 1/3rd of their population have had it now if the 0.3% death figure is accurate.

 

Will be interesting to follow their numbers going forward.

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14 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

From Labour:

 

'19 out of 20 areas in England that have been under restrictions for two months have seen an increase in infection rates.'

presumably the restrictions aren’t being very well observed and the universities are skewing the numbers somewhat

 

addimg to my post yesterday that the seven day average looks to have peaked across most of the country .....will it be a temporary drop ???  Most informed opinion seems to think so ....

 

 

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It won’t significantly subside until a vaccine is in mass production. It’s here to stay for now. Mass lockdowns will only Temporarily halt the spread until the restrictions are lifted again, plus a two or three week lockdown at this time would be fatal, considering the festive period is upon us and all that would happen is everyone will flock to the pubs to get smashed, and the Christmas rush begin. 

 

I haven’t agreed with much the Tories have done, but I do think that this system is probably the best way to deal with a bad situation. Why roll out a national lockdown when some areas are better off than others? Fact of the matter is the country still has to function, if we can keep the NHS from being overwhelmed then there should be no need to enforce a full scale national lockdown.

 

Furthermore, efforts need to be raised by the people too. I’ve seen countless examples of breaches in social distancing advice, in my gym just the other day a young lad came up to me and asked to share my weights, and shrugged off my rejection to to Covid with the response “I’m not too bothered”.

 

A lot of us are being careful, following the guidelines and ensuring we do self isolate where necessary, but some feel they don’t need too, and it is this that causes the issues.

 

As I said, I wouldn’t want to be making the decisions the government have had to make, but there’s it’s a fine balancing act trying to keep the economy going whilst not allowing the NHS to become overwhelmed, another lockdown could be fatal for large areas of the economy, and easing of restrictions devastating to the NHS. Keeping both operating to the best levels they can during this time is of paramount importance. Unfortunately lives will still be lost, that can’t wholly be avoided.  

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Just now, st albans fox said:

presumably the restrictions aren’t being very well observed and the universities are skewing the numbers somewhat

 

addimg to my post yesterday that the seven day average looks to have peaked across most of the country .....will it be a temporary drop ???  Most informed opinion seems to think so ....

 

 

Well they definitely aren't in Liverpool! Videos doing the rounds with hundreds in the streets chanting, singing and dancing together tonightlol

 

I think this is as tolerant of the restrictions as people will ever be, unless the death rate jumps up massively etc.

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