Coronavirus Thread

[z-layrex]

25 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

How many cases do you think the NHS could cope with?  At present it is 870 people in hospital across the country.  Is that doable?  In January it was about 40,000 patients, which obviously is not doable.  But of course the vaccine effect and possibly other effects is very much mitigating the numbers.  In January, 10% of cases went to hospital and stayed an average of 10 days.  Now, 4% of cases go to hospital and stay an average of 7 days.  So whereas in January 40,000 cases per day meant 40,000 people in hospital, now 40,000 cases per day would mean 10,000 people in hospital.  And that's assuming of course that the numbers are as bad in August as they were in January, which means the Indian variant would have to be so much more transmissible that it would outperform the summer effect and the vaccine effect by a huge factor.

 

So how many is too many?

I dont think we could have "too many" now, it will cope it always does. The threat of overwhelming critical care has passed because we have procedures in place to escalate now, despite a loss of a portion of experienced staff from the icu's as burnt out people take other careers. Also like you said, we wont see the numbers hitting critical care like before because of the vaccine.

 

What I'm saying is the hospitals are already very busy catching up on surgeries, plus the a&e's have been very busy, the reason for which I don't know to be honest. So why put further pressure on it than necessary, especially as they are predicting some degree of covid pressure this summer or autumn.

[StanSP]

42 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I'm going for most restrictions ending on 21st June, but masks and social distancing are to be kept whilst their continue to get more people vaccinated.

 

We should all be vaccinated with both jabs by about September shouldn't we?

I'm 30 and my 2nd one is towards end of August so to get all adults by end of September I think may be a stretch?

 

I agree that most restrictions will end on 21st June but not all as was initially planned. A big shame if that is the case.

[Tuna]

14 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I'm 30 and my 2nd one is towards end of August so to get all adults by end of September I think may be a stretch?

 

I agree that most restrictions will end on 21st June but not all as was initially planned. A big shame if that is the case.

Would the J&J single shot vaccine help with the under 30s? I know it was approved recently.

[StanSP]

6 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Would the J&J single shot vaccine help with the under 30s? I know it was approved recently.

Good point. Forgot about that.

 

What's happening with the Moderna vaccine? Don't really hear much about that.

[dsr-burnley]

22 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

I dont think we could have "too many" now, it will cope it always does. The threat of overwhelming critical care has passed because we have procedures in place to escalate now, despite a loss of a portion of experienced staff from the icu's as burnt out people take other careers. Also like you said, we wont see the numbers hitting critical care like before because of the vaccine.

 

What I'm saying is the hospitals are already very busy catching up on surgeries, plus the a&e's have been very busy, the reason for which I don't know to be honest. So why put further pressure on it than necessary, especially as they are predicting some degree of covid pressure this summer or autumn.

I suspect A&Es are getting busier because it's the only way people have of seeing a doctor.  GPs are very hard to see nowadays.

[brucey]

 

[StanSP]

This is promising overall. 

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

39 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I'm 30 and my 2nd one is towards end of August so to get all adults by end of September I think may be a stretch?

 

I agree that most restrictions will end on 21st June but not all as was initially planned. A big shame if that is the case.

 

I had mine end of April and the next one booked in is next week, 5 weeks later.  I doubt it'll be a 12 week wait especially since take up will be low amongst those in their 20s.

 

What is required is for healthy people to stop being tested.  Without the testing figures there are no cases.  We're spending an absolute fortune on testing and for what?  I cannot see how the benefits of mass testing outweigh the costs in the summer months.  All testing achieves is to fuel a never ending cycle.  And when are we ditching masks?  

[StanSP]

7 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

What is required is for healthy people to stop being tested.  Without the testing figures there are no cases.  We're spending an absolute fortune on testing and for what?  I cannot see how the benefits of mass testing outweigh the costs in the summer months.  All testing achieves is to fuel a never ending cycle.  And when are we ditching masks?  

I'm guessing we need a regular run of 0 cases for any testing to stop...

[Dunge]

5 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

I had mine end of April and the next one booked in is next week, 5 weeks later.  I doubt it'll be a 12 week wait especially since take up will be low amongst those in their 20s.

 

What is required is for healthy people to stop being tested.  Without the testing figures there are no cases.  We're spending an absolute fortune on testing and for what?  I cannot see how the benefits of mass testing outweigh the costs in the summer months.  All testing achieves is to fuel a never ending cycle.  And when are we ditching masks?  

The main benefits to continued testing are to record the levels of infection as we go through the weeks and months, and to record what variants are in the country and what they’re doing. But if the links from infection rates to hospitalisations and deaths are proven to be down then I think they’ll be far more comfortable opening up. ie It’s all very well talking about a third wave, but what will that actually mean?

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[Matt]

33 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

I had mine end of April and the next one booked in is next week, 5 weeks later.  I doubt it'll be a 12 week wait especially since take up will be low amongst those in their 20s.

 

What is required is for healthy people to stop being tested.  Without the testing figures there are no cases.  We're spending an absolute fortune on testing and for what?  I cannot see how the benefits of mass testing outweigh the costs in the summer months.  All testing achieves is to fuel a never ending cycle.  And when are we ditching masks?  

Bang on, i've been saying it all along, I know people personally and heard/read/(simply know people do it) who go for test without any symptoms, dare I say it, Hypochondriac's.

 

I say and tar them as hypochondriac's as they have previous of just being work shy or claiming illness in the past (Certainly I speak for the people I know anyway), it's as if they want the test's to turn out postive with some people.

 

If you've got symptoms fair enough, get checked out, do the right thing, but to have no symptoms and no reason to be tested for them to continually have test after test, I just don't get it.

 

Edited 31 May 2021 by Matt

[Guest Lcfc82]

2 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I'm going for most restrictions ending on 21st June, but masks and social distancing are to be kept whilst their continue to get more people vaccinated.

 

We should all be vaccinated with both jabs by about September shouldn't we?

Social distancing has got to go hasn’t it, or nothing can really change that much ?

[StanSP]

14 minutes ago, Matt said:

If you've got symptoms fair enough, get checked out, do the right thing, but to have no symptoms and no reason to be tested for them to continually have test after test, I just don't get it.

 

I have to do at least 1 test a week for work reasons...

[Matt]

4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I have to do at least 1 test a week for work reasons...

As you say that's for work reasons.

 

I said with no symptoms and no reason...

[StanSP]

17 minutes ago, Matt said:

As you say that's for work reasons.

 

I said with no symptoms and no reason...

It's not a blanket 'no reason' though is it? Unless you happen to know the circumstances of everyone getting tested even if they don't have symptoms...

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

As a previous poster stated a lot of people are becoming fatigued with the restrictions and the rules, I know I am.

There always seems to be an obstacle thrown up for the experts and scientists to advise caution and delay opening up and returning to normality, they’ll always be a new variant so are we to accept that this is it for us indefinitely? 
I personally was doubtful regarding having the jabs but decided to go ahead on the promise of a return to normal and yet despite the mass vaccination we are still under threat of continuing restrictions.

We will not defeat coronavirus so what’s the acceptable number of deaths we can live with? 
How many people die on the roads daily? And yet the majority of us get in our cars or on our bikes each day, you take a risk and get on with your day/life.

We’ve become a nanny state abiding by the rules, being fed only one side by the media.

Im tired of the numerous variants being thrown at us as a reason to prolong “the rules” 

[Matt]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

It's not a blanket 'no reason' though is it? Unless you happen to know the circumstances of everyone getting tested even if they don't have symptoms...

 

I'm making assumptions when I talk generally but for the people I talk about personally, yes.

[Otis]

1 death today and the average has been in single figures for a couple of weeks now. Hospitalizations at their lowest since last September. 

Yet there's still people want to keep the current restrictions. 

[st albans fox]

43 minutes ago, Otis said:

1 death today and the average has been in single figures for a couple of weeks now. Hospitalizations at their lowest since last September. 

Yet there's still people want to keep the current restrictions. 

You need to wait three weeks after a big change to see how hospitalisations are going. Indoor hospitality reopened two weeks ago - we’ve seen cases ease up above 3k per day  - big week upcoming ref the June 21 stuff 

[Otis]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

You need to wait three weeks after a big change to see how hospitalisations are going. Indoor hospitality reopened two weeks ago - we’ve seen cases ease up above 3k per day  - big week upcoming ref the June 21 stuff 

That's why the stages are 5 weeks appart to assess the effects. 

The vaccines work ? No?

[Legend_in_blue]

2 hours ago, StanSP said:

I'm guessing we need a regular run of 0 cases for any testing to stop...

This will never happen because the false positive rate will never hit 0.

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, Tuna said:

Would the J&J single shot vaccine help with the under 30s? I know it was approved recently.

 J&J has the same issues re clots as AZ

 

for that reason I expect under 40’s to be advised Pfizer and moderna which means two doses ....

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, Otis said:

That's why the stages are 5 weeks appart to assess the effects. 

The vaccines work ? No?

We hope so - I think you’ll see a lack of notable increase in hospitalisations  and we will reopen on the 21st but masks indoors will stay