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Posted

Few vaccinated people turning up to A&E with Indian variant

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Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

 
ReutersCopyright: Reuters

With the variant first detected in India becoming the main version of coronavirus in the UK, the next question is whether the vaccines will still prevent people getting sick. 

There’s some good news from Public Health England on that front. 

Overall, just over 200 people so far have turned up to A&E with Covid that turned out to be the Indian variant.

The really good news is that just over a quarter of those people had received the vaccine. And only five (or 2.5%) of them had received both jabs.

Far more than a quarter of us have been vaccinated and far, far more than 2.5% of people have had both jabs.

If the vaccine wasn’t working, you’d expect more than a quarter of people turning up to A&E with Covid to be people who were vaccinated.

While there are ifs and buts with every number that we use to try to make sense of the variant, there’s a clear picture emerging from many different jigsaw pieces.

Vaccines reduce the chances that people will get sick from either of the main types of coronavirus in the UK.

The second jab reduces those chances even further.

  • Like 1
Posted
47 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

'I personally know 2 people who the vaccine has killed' 

 

'some people will find any excuse not to get it' 

 

Doesn't add up to me, if that's not a genuine reason to not want to get it I don't know what is. 

The first problem is with the word “the” before “vaccine”. There is more than one vaccine available, and they work in different ways in a bid to achieve the same end.
 

But even if it was just the AZ vaccine we’re talking about, think of this analogy:

 

There are two 6-shooter revolvers. Your evil, maniacal captor says he’s going to aim one of them at you and pull the trigger. He tells you Revolver A contains two bullets and Revolver B contains four. In each case, he would spin them randomly before firing. Are you going to reject the option of Revolver A because there’s a chance of being shot? Or are you going to pick it because the odds are in your favour?

 

It’s not a trick question, of course. You go for the better odds. And it’s similar with “the” vaccine.

 

As for finding excuses, there will always be something to be afraid of if you look hard enough - something of comparatively low risk, something that doesn’t exist. If you’re looking for absolutes, nobody on any side can provide you with those. Life doesn’t work that way. So instead we look for the best odds available to us. And those are the vaccines.

  • Like 1
Posted

Also the fact that most people who reckon they know people who have died from the vaccine are probably not telling the truth, as deaths from the vaccine are extremely rare.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Dunge said:

The first problem is with the word “the” before “vaccine”. There is more than one vaccine available, and they work in different ways in a bid to achieve the same end.
 

But even if it was just the AZ vaccine we’re talking about, think of this analogy:

 

There are two 6-shooter revolvers. Your evil, maniacal captor says he’s going to aim one of them at you and pull the trigger. He tells you Revolver A contains two bullets and Revolver B contains four. In each case, he would spin them randomly before firing. Are you going to reject the option of Revolver A because there’s a chance of being shot? Or are you going to pick it because the odds are in your favour?

 

It’s not a trick question, of course. You go for the better odds. And it’s similar with “the” vaccine.

 

As for finding excuses, there will always be something to be afraid of if you look hard enough - something of comparatively low risk, something that doesn’t exist. If you’re looking for absolutes, nobody on any side can provide you with those. Life doesn’t work that way. So instead we look for the best odds available to us. And those are the vaccines.

But the odds for a young 25 year old with no health issues aren't much worse from COVID than the vaccine, then you've got the unknown long term effects as well.

 

And I say this as someone who has been vaccinated.

 

I can see why people are skeptical, especially if they know someone whose death has resulted from the vaccine (if that's the right phrase to use).

  • Like 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

But the odds for a young 25 year old with no health issues aren't much worse from COVID than the vaccine, then you've got the unknown long term effects as well.

 

And I say this as someone who has been vaccinated.

 

I can see why people are skeptical, especially if they know someone whose death has resulted from the vaccine (if that's the right phrase to use).

I’m not in the camp that thinks people are stupid for being concerned or sceptical.

I’m just pointing out that there are ways around the concerns, and that the understandable fear of blood clots from the AZ vaccine is not the overriding concern that some people think it is, that it’s still better than getting Covid (The long term effects are far more notable and prevalent with Covid itself as compared to any authorised vaccine), and that, regardless, there are alternatives available for younger people - those statistically more likely to contract rare blood clots - with Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

  • Like 2
Posted
14 minutes ago, Bryn said:

Also the fact that most people who reckon they know people who have died from the vaccine are probably not telling the truth, as deaths from the vaccine are extremely rare.

It's been stated on here a couple of times that somebody related to a forum member and known by many others passed away.

 

That has an effect, I'm sure. It's like somebody whose relative has passed away in a plane crash might be more reluctant to get on a plane, even though the chances of 2 people from the same family being killed in 2 different plane crashes are incredibly tiny. 

  • Like 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Father Ted said:

I now know 2 people in their 30s who have died directly as a result of the vaccine. Sadly, I'll get called an anti vaxxer for refusing it.

If you're local to Leicester, probably the same 2 that I knew. 

Posted

Great! Glasgow still under blooming restrictions! Guess where I am next week? 😞😞. Apparently my hotel says I can eat indoors, but can’t  have alcohol with dinner. Or, I can have alcohol sent to my room, but not food!! Going to have to be up and down in the lift between mouthfuls! 😖😖😖 

Posted
32 minutes ago, TrentFox said:

Great! Glasgow still under blooming restrictions! Guess where I am next week? 😞😞. Apparently my hotel says I can eat indoors, but can’t  have alcohol with dinner. Or, I can have alcohol sent to my room, but not food!! Going to have to be up and down in the lift between mouthfuls! 😖😖😖 

Depending on the reason for going up would it be worth doing a day trip to Edinburgh or the countryside where restrictions arent as severe?

Posted
14 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Depending on the reason for going up would it be worth doing a day trip to Edinburgh or the countryside where restrictions arent as severe?

Sadly, the client probably wouldn’t want to pay me for that - but it sounds wonderful 😊

Posted
4 minutes ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

Off to get my Pfizer jab now, hopefully il still be  able to get go out and get pished tomorrow

I was advised not to for 24 hrs. 

 

Had two beers 36 hrs later and had a splitting headache as if I'd had several more. 

  • Like 1
Posted
19 minutes ago, TrentFox said:

Sadly, the client probably wouldn’t want to pay me for that - but it sounds wonderful 😊

Ha didnt realise it was worked related. In that case, suck it up! :D

  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, bovril said:

I was advised not to for 24 hrs. 

 

Had two beers 36 hrs later and had a splitting headache as if I'd had several more. 

Lightweight 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Posted

Very sorry to anyone who's lost a friend or relative due to receiving the vaccine. 

 

Any death from it is too many. It goes without saying. 

 

Having said that, surely there's several others you know that have had the vaccine and have been fine after suffering the initial (expected) side effects? 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, bovril said:

I was advised not to for 24 hrs. 

 

Had two beers 36 hrs later and had a splitting headache as if I'd had several more. 

So the lesson is not to drink if you are a massive lightweight? 😂 

Posted
1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Lightweight 

 

32 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

So the lesson is not to drink if you are a massive lightweight? 😂 

Trying to help people out here and get abuse, unbelievable 

  • Haha 3
Posted
20 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Yes.  The behavioural psychologists on Sage are loving this. 

To be fair to sage they only suggesting we delay full opening until more vaccinations is done which is sensible.

 

Very different to the gov trying to reimpose local lockdown with low figures.

Posted
8 hours ago, Dunge said:

It’s not exactly that I’ve heard it, because you can’t hear of something that hasn’t happened, if you get my meaning.

 

But the issues that have been reported regarding rare blood clots - and I haven’t heard of any other issues being reported - are attributed to the AZ and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. Which makes sense in a way, because they’re a different type of technology to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (and similar to each other). Moreover, it seems these (very rare) blood clots might be happening because the AZ and J&J vaccines closely replicate what Covid itself does without it being a live virus, ie that Covid can and does also cause these blood clots as one possible issue of its infection. I don’t think the following is proven yet, but my theory on where we’ll end up with this is that those people who get a blood clot from the AZ vaccine would probably have landed it from Covid in the long term regardless without some form of vaccination. But as I say, that’s my theory based on the discussions I’ve seen and I’m jumping ahead somewhat there. Anyway, I can understand why younger people would want to opt for Pfizer/Moderna to avoid this risk, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that avoiding vaccines entirely is a good idea. In fact, if Pfizer/Moderna weren’t available then I’d still be urging everyone to get an AZ because it still looks like the best course of action, both for society and the individual.

 

In fact, there’s a handy article on the BBC website about it today.

AZ trains the immune system to recognise the spike protein on the covid virus.  Hence, your system sees the actual virus v quickly and is able to attack it.  The vaccine does not give you anything like the experience that a covid infection does - t certainly wouldn’t give you any real damage to your organs as covid can.  It’s a live chimp cold virus which is unlikely to do much to your body other than awaken some old antibodies that you have in your system from a previous real viral infection of a similar nature. Hence the reaction some have (especially if they’ve actually had covid where these v real antibodies are awakened and your body has a surge immune response ). 
 

Obviously  there are new side effects becoming more apparent as the weeks pass and larger numbers of ‘younger’ people are jabbed. 

 

the argument is that the ends justify the means but if you’re one of the few families that suffer a fatality as a consequence of receiving a vaccine,  then there really isn’t any comfort.  If I were under 40 I would definitely be getting moderna or Pfizer. 

  • Like 1
Posted
10 hours ago, bovril said:

It's been stated on here a couple of times that somebody related to a forum member and known by many others passed away.

 

That has an effect, I'm sure. It's like somebody whose relative has passed away in a plane crash might be more reluctant to get on a plane, even though the chances of 2 people from the same family being killed in 2 different plane crashes are incredibly tiny. 

 

It's definitely a real thing and should be taken very very seriously, but I think it's been jumped on (and I mean outside of this forum) as part of the anti-vaccine rhetoric.

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