Coronavirus Thread

[AllGoneTitsSchlupp]

24 minutes ago, StanSP said:

A big fat zero covid deaths in UK for the first time since last year. 

 

 

that's way too positive to be posted in here. get out!

[dsr-burnley]

7 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

It's brilliant news, obviously. It reflects the infection rate one month ago. I think terming those who advise caution as bedwetters is possibly unhelpful. This is a hugely complex scenario the likes none of us in the West have ever had to deal with before. It is literally a matter of life and death, and requires considerable thought.

So does that mean that by the end of June the death rate will go up to half as much again?  What's 150% of zero?  

 

I wish they'd update the healthcare numbers.  No updates since 25th May.  Are they all on holiday in Spain?  

[harpendenfox]

2 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

So does that mean that by the end of June the death rate will go up to half as much again?  What's 150% of zero?  

 

I wish they'd update the healthcare numbers.  No updates since 25th May.  Are they all on holiday in Spain?  

There will be updates to the healthcare data tomorrow at 4pm. Likely the death number will be between 15 and 20 tomorrow. It's 0 today because of the long weekend (it is definitely good news, I'm not trying to be Mr Negative, I promise). What the nation really needs, and won't have, is an honest discussion as to what level of 'death from CV is 'acceptable'. We know about 10,500 people die every week in this country. So if, say, another 500 per week are dying from CV, do we have to conclude that is acceptable? I suspect we do. 

[Otis]

11 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

It's brilliant news, obviously. It reflects the infection rate one month ago. I think terming those who advise caution as bedwetters is possibly unhelpful. This is a hugely complex scenario the likes none of us in the West have ever had to deal with before. It is literally a matter of life and death, and requires considerable thought.

Maybe. But it's frustrating that whenever there's good news, there's a "but".

1600+ people died today and not one had tested positive in the last 28 days, despite the millions tested everyday.

And there are still calls for lockdown easing to be delayed. I sometimes wonder how vocal this support would be if furlough support didn't exist.

 

Anyway I was reading earlier Boris sees no reason to delay the roadmap. So good news for those wanting to get on with life rather than just existing.

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Haha a zero deaths day couldn't have come at a better time

[Otis]

5 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

There will be updates to the healthcare data tomorrow at 4pm. Likely the death number will be between 15 and 20 tomorrow. It's 0 today because of the long weekend (it is definitely good news, I'm not trying to be Mr Negative, I promise). What the nation really needs, and won't have, is an honest discussion as to what level of 'death from CV is 'acceptable'. We know about 10,500 people die every week in this country. So if, say, another 500 per week are dying from CV, do we have to conclude that is acceptable? I suspect we do. 

Spot on. 

There does need to be an acceptable level. 500 per week is 70 a day and we've been lower than that for months. 

[harpendenfox]

18 minutes ago, Otis said:

Maybe. But it's frustrating that whenever there's good news, there's a "but".

1600+ people died today and not one had tested positive in the last 28 days, despite the millions tested everyday.

And there are still calls for lockdown easing to be delayed. I sometimes wonder how vocal this support would be if furlough support didn't exist.

 

Anyway I was reading earlier Boris sees no reason to delay the roadmap. So good news for those wanting to get on with life rather than just existing.

 

I've read this 'getting on with life rather than just existing' line in lots of place. Perhaps I live a simple life! I kinda feel that I'm doing most of what I want to do now. I'm hugging my family. I'm going out for a meal in a bit. I've seen the City live (and we just happened to win the FA Cup, so that was rather good). I've seen the County live. I'm playing lots of golf (badly). I can see my very vulnerable son safely, as we are both double jabbed). I could go to shops if I wanted, but I've always found that boring. Anyway, as I've said in other responses, I am cautiously optimistic about the weeks ahead.

[dsr-burnley]

21 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

There will be updates to the healthcare data tomorrow at 4pm. Likely the death number will be between 15 and 20 tomorrow. It's 0 today because of the long weekend (it is definitely good news, I'm not trying to be Mr Negative, I promise). What the nation really needs, and won't have, is an honest discussion as to what level of 'death from CV is 'acceptable'. We know about 10,500 people die every week in this country. So if, say, another 500 per week are dying from CV, do we have to conclude that is acceptable? I suspect we do. 

Especially as the chances are that many - who knows, maybe most - of the deaths at present are people who were dying anyway.  Just as flu is reported on the death certificate of over 100,000 people annually but can only be said to have caused about 10,000 of those deaths, there must be a number of coronavirus deaths that aren't actually caused by coronavirus.  When we were in thousands a day, that number was insignificant - but I bet it isn't now.

 

72,000 people have tested positive in the past month.  That's 1 in 920 or so of the population.  Which means that the average number of people per day who die having had a test positive in the last month, ought to be about 2.  That's 14 per week, out of 43 in the last 7 days, dying after a positive test simply by law of averages.  (Imagine a football match at Wembley, 72,000 there.  On average, 2 people who went to that match will die every day, and we wouldn't dream of putting it down to the match.)

 

And that 14 per week is before we even start on the already-ill or dying who coincidentally had coronavirus and would have died anyway.

[dsr-burnley]

3 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

I've read this 'getting on with life rather than just existing' line in lots of place. Perhaps I live a simple life! I kinda feel that I'm doing most of what I want to do now. I'm hugging my family. I'm going out for a meal in a bit. I've seen the City live (and we just happened to win the FA Cup, so that was rather good). I've seen the County live. I'm playing lots of golf (badly). I can see my very vulnerable son safely, as we are both double jabbed). I could go to shops if I wanted, but I've always found that boring. Anyway, as I've said in other responses, I am cautiously optimistic about the weeks ahead.

Can you, as my mother used to before lockdown, go to church and speak to people?  Go to a community lunch?  Go to a coffee morning?  Go to knitting club?  Go to whist drive?  Older people, especially those who don't get about very easily or who like/need a routine, are not so lucky as you; especially as most of the places that host these events are cautious and will not open up until everything is open.

[Legend_in_blue]

2 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

No, that's very much the case.  I saw three maps of Bolton, about two or three weeks ago, with colour shading of (1) places where there is most coronavirus, (2) places where most Asians live, (3) places where vaccinations are lowest.  It might as well have been the same map three times over.  

 

The low number of vaccinations is directly correlated with the high number of Asians, that's pretty certain.  It has been noted, and apparently can be said, that Asians are less likely to have taken up the vaccine.  As for the rest, whether the high coronavirus is because of the low vaccination, or whether it is connected to the high number of Asians regardless of vaccine - that's uncertain because it isn't being talked about.  Are Asians are more genetically likely to get the disease?  We don't know.  Do Asian lifestyles make them more likely to get the disease (and by "Asian lifestyles", I mean principally the habit of multi-generational households and keeping old people at home to be looked after rather than old folks' homes)?  We don't know.  That's the sort of question that isn't being talked about.

 

Incidentally, by "high proportion of Asians", it's 60% plus in at least one ward of Bolton.  Deifinitely high enough to make a large statisitcal difference.  And by "Asian", I mean people with brown skin, people whose ancestors came from the Indian subcontinent.  I don't like the term "Asian" because it's obviously inaccurate, but that's the usual term to use for people of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi ancestry.

 

Here are numbers for all areas of Bolton up to May 26...

 

 

The numbers generate a ridiculous 783 "cases" per 100k based on the tiny numbers in the populations of these areas.  Makes a mockery of the "cases per 100k" metric which I always thought was a very crude way to compare figures across the board.  

 

I think project fear has just about run its course now.  Once these figures disappear, we need a population of anti-testers far more than we need anti-vaxers in this country, there's no ammunition to feed the numbers then.

[CosbehFox]

4 hours ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Yeah that is still the elephant in the room which people feel uncomfortable calling out. 

Personally wouldn't say that's the case when there has been a very audible/advertising campaign that the government have paid for. 

[Wymsey]

'Covid idiot'?..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-57322352

[harpendenfox]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

Can you, as my mother used to before lockdown, go to church and speak to people?  Go to a community lunch?  Go to a coffee morning?  Go to knitting club?  Go to whist drive?  Older people, especially those who don't get about very easily or who like/need a routine, are not so lucky as you; especially as most of the places that host these events are cautious and will not open up until everything is open.

Those are very valid points about your Mum. Could more of the venues your Mum used to frequent open now, but they are opting not too? I completely accept and understand your frustration on her behalf 

[WigstonWanderer]

Despite what various Covid deniers and sceptics would have people believe, for the first year or so of this crisis rates of positive tests do seem to have been a very good leading indicator of what happens later on in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. I sincerely hope (and would pray if I were a believer), that this link has been broken by a very good vaccine rollout in the UK and some other countries.

 

The current low hospitalisation and death rates in the UK will have been brought about by a combination of the vaccine rollout and the long lockdown that you have had the misfortune to have to endure. Surely it is right that as restrictions are eased, the authorities act cautiously, at least until the vaccine rollout is complete?

 

My own view is that ultimately, we will all have to live with whatever residual problems remain once vaccine rollout is completed, even if that means a slight reduction in the average lifespan. I do not believe that any restrictions can be imposed indefinitely, and at some stage we will need to get back to pretty much the old normal. I do have quite a bit of faith that vaccines and other medications will, with ever improving efficacy, mean that the medium to long term effect will be relatively slight.

 

The UK and some other countries are blazing a trail with their vaccine rollouts and the rest of us can only hope that the results are as good as their promise. The Australian government’s lazy, complacent and incompetent rollout stands in contrast to its relatively good management of the earlier stages of the pandemic.

[String fellow]

It looks like we've all got to mug up on the Greek alphabet. The WHO has renamed 10 of the main mutations, from the alpha variant to the kappa variant. Let's hope that we never get to the omega variant!

https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

[Guest Harrydc]

Surely no one is mad enough to want to delay June 21st? For what? Just to be safe? Just so we don't ruin all our 'hard work'? Just like we locked down for another 6 months just to be safe? 

 

Crazy people.

[SpacedX]

5 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

I think project fear has just about run its course now.  

Absolutely agree. So why are you and several others so fixated upon it? 

 

Change the record. Quite frankly it's boring now. Aren't there any "birds you fancy off the telly"? 

 

Nothing to do with "fear" or scaremongering, it's about respect for our frontline healthcare workers and the substantial backlogs that they are facing which are exacerbated by continuing cases irrespective of how insignificant you perceive these to be.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

The cost of PCR tests for travelling abroad are eye watering.

[dsr-burnley]

4 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

My own view is that ultimately, we will all have to live with whatever residual problems remain once vaccine rollout is completed, even if that means a slight reduction in the average lifespan. I do not believe that any restrictions can be imposed indefinitely, and at some stage we will need to get back to pretty much the old normal. I do have quite a bit of faith that vaccines and other medications will, with ever improving efficacy, mean that the medium to long term effect will be relatively slight.

And it will be a slight reduction in lifespan.  The average reduction in lifespan so far, even assuming that all people who died of coronavirus would have lived their full average lifespan if they hadn't caught it, is about a week.

[KrefelderFox666]

7 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

The cost of PCR tests for travelling abroad are eye watering.

I've seen some around the £50-60 mark but a lot of them are going at around the £100 mark. Seems reasonable. However, you then think about having to do it twice (out to destination, and then back to origin), then you still have to do a Day 2 (and in some cases Day 8) test. And that's for one person. Soon adds up.

 

I would imagine that in another month or so, they might start using vaccination status as an alternative to having to do a test. Germany have already done this and I assume the EU will use their new cards in this way. Just need the UK to follow that too and accept vaccination status when coming back to the UK from green countries.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I've seen some around the £50-60 mark but a lot of them are going at around the £100 mark. Seems reasonable. However, you then think about having to do it twice (out to destination, and then back to origin), then you still have to do a Day 2 (and in some cases Day 8) test. And that's for one person. Soon adds up.

 

I would imagine that in another month or so, they might start using vaccination status as an alternative to having to do a test. Germany have already done this and I assume the EU will use their new cards in this way. Just need the UK to follow that too and accept vaccination status when coming back to the UK from green countries.

Where is the logic in quarantining for 10 days and having to go out twice to get tested….one or the other should be enough, or maybe it’s just their way of making it so difficult to go away that people won’t bother.

[FoxesDeb]

2 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Where is the logic in quarantining for 10 days and having to go out twice to get tested….one or the other should be enough, or maybe it’s just their way of making it so difficult to go away that people won’t bother.

The day 2 and 8 tests are done at home 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

11 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

The day 2 and 8 tests are done at home 

Ah ok, I thought I read boots were offering a £60 service, which I took for in store.

The point still stands though that why if I’m quarantined do I need to take 2 tests…

[Stivo]

1 hour ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Ah ok, I thought I read boots were offering a £60 service, which I took for in store.

The point still stands though that why if I’m quarantined do I need to take 2 tests…

Because if you test positive to either then the quarantine extends to 10 days from the positive test.  

[String fellow]

6 hours ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I've seen some around the £50-60 mark but a lot of them are going at around the £100 mark. Seems reasonable. However, you then think about having to do it twice (out to destination, and then back to origin), then you still have to do a Day 2 (and in some cases Day 8) test. And that's for one person. Soon adds up.

 

I would imagine that in another month or so, they might start using vaccination status as an alternative to having to do a test. Germany have already done this and I assume the EU will use their new cards in this way. Just need the UK to follow that too and accept vaccination status when coming back to the UK from green countries.

That seems quite a lot of money to me.

Edited 2 June 2021 by String fellow