Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

59 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Has the Indian variant reached America? Or are they just not bothered. 

Not as far as I’ve seen to any great extent.  However, just as the Kent variant became the global front runner, so will the Indian. 

 

the yanks are much more prescriptive about who is allowed in/out. 
 

and they have a pretty good vaccination program ongoing 

[StanSP]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

the yanks are much more prescriptive about who is allowed in/out. 

[yorkie1999]

12 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

End globalisation  there isn’t a variant around at the moment that evades the vaccine. The answer isn’t to lock the borders, the answer is to monitor variants through science and put temporary quarantine on areas that have a variant that show signs that they could evade the vaccine.

 

Failing that, lock yourself in a bunker and stock up on mushy peas.

It was science that got us into this mess in the first place.

[VLC86]

8 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

It was science that got us into this mess in the first place.

I agree, but I don’t agree that the solution here is to never let anyone leave the country.

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

It was science that got us into this mess in the first place.

Disease outbreaks killing a massive amount of people and making life miserable for everyone else has been a thing since way before science was even an idea.

 

Either we take our chances that science can get us out of the messes it can and does get us into, or we accept the certainty that nature is going to bring us all down in horrible fashion anyway. Speaking personally, I'd rather take the possibility than the certainty of civilisational collapse.

Edited 31 May 2021 by leicsmac

[z-layrex]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I assume we are following the lowest track of the five scenarios

that predicts another wave oct/nov (though still not too large for the nhs to cope) 

 

I would expect to see a wave earlier than that as the Indian variant raises hospitalisations faster than the 25/45 y o can get their second vaccination in and effective.  Again it shouldn’t be too much for the NHS to cope with.  areas of the world which are slow with their vaccination program will be cacking themselves at the though that this Indian variant gains traction in their populations.  we must surely be approaching a time where the variants of concern will become less dangerous to the population whilst remaining v transmissible.

 

anyway, the question is do we delay the 21 June ‘free for all’  by a few weeks to enable more second vaccinations in that age group highlighted earlier or take our chances that it won’t overwhelm the hospitals and won’t lead to a level of cases that enables a more virulent variant to establish. 

 

at some point we have to get back to ‘normal’.  Maybe normal in the future will be thousands of people each year dying from covid just as they currently do from other respiratory diseases.  If he does move June 21 back then he will have to do it with a specific date within the following month that is not moveable or perhaps more likely, he will say that June 21 can happen if foreign holidays don’t. 

My large London Hospital has had zero beds most days for the past fortnight, all of the hospitals are extremely busy with (mostly non-covid) a&e admissions and the unending surgical backlog. How do you propose we cope without delaying unlocking indefinitely?

 

With the amount of senior staff who have left my icu, plus the fact we have been very busy for months, I'd be very anxious about managing a third wave safely.

Edited 31 May 2021 by z-layrex

[Dr The Singh]

15 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

End globalisation  there isn’t a variant around at the moment that evades the vaccine. The answer isn’t to lock the borders, the answer is to monitor variants through science and put temporary quarantine on areas that have a variant that show signs that they could evade the vaccine.

 

Failing that, lock yourself in a bunker and stock up on mushy peas.

Agreed, but the Indian variant saga is about money and trade deals, Britain as it has done with India for many years, will sell it's soul and it's people for ££££££.

[Soup]

1 hour ago, z-layrex said:

My large London Hospital has had zero beds most days for the past fortnight, all of the hospitals are extremely busy with (mostly non-covid) a&e admissions and the unending surgical backlog. How do you propose we cope without delaying unlocking indefinitely?

 

With the amount of senior staff who have left my icu, plus the fact we have been very busy for months, I'd be very anxious about managing a third wave safely.

I don't understand? Do the vaccines not work?

[z-layrex]

Just now, Soup said:

I don't understand? Do the vaccines not work?

They do work, which is why we need to delay and double vaccinate everyone. The NHS is very busy and would struggle with another wave of covid admissions. When the numbers shoot up (and they will looking at the trend) the virus reaches those who will get critically ill. Fully unlocking this year would just be the stupidest thing.

[Dr The Singh]

5 minutes ago, Soup said:

I don't understand? Do the vaccines not work?

I believe the concern is with the millions with conditions that could lead to hospitalisations for example young people with asthma.

[Soup]

Just now, z-layrex said:

They do work, which is why we need to delay and double vaccinate everyone. The NHS is very busy and would struggle with another wave of covid admissions. When the numbers shoot up (and they will looking at the trend) the virus reaches those who will get critically ill. Fully unlocking this year would just be the stupidest thing.

OK I get you. Wajt till everyone is doubled, say October then. Obviously they won't open up in the Autumn. So looking like April next year then?

[z-layrex]

1 minute ago, Soup said:

OK I get you. Wajt till everyone is doubled, say October then. Obviously they won't open up in the Autumn. So looking like April next year then?

My boss tells me the top bods at work are planning for an August surge, doesnt mean they'll be right though, they can only go on what NHS England tell them.

[Dr The Singh]

9 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

My boss tells me the top bods at work are planning for an August surge, doesnt mean they'll be right though, they can only go on what NHS England tell them.

I was told October.  September there will be another mass vaccination programme for it.

[VLC86]

37 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

Agreed, but the Indian variant saga is about money and trade deals, Britain as it has done with India for many years, will sell it's soul and it's people for ££££££.

I agree there should be caution, but not ‘ an end to globalisation’ 

[leicsmac]

Quite frankly, I think if there is going to be an extension to restrictions in the UK, it's going to have to be a brief one and I simply can't see there being a successful application of increased restrictions anytime after now, either.

 

From what I can tell, peoples patience is almost at breaking point and they've been promised a return to a close to "normality" as we're going to get right now. Taking that away for more than a brief length of time could well turn ugly. I don't doubt the scientific necessity of such additional restrictions should they become necessary, I just don't think they will be effectively adhered to or enforced. This has been said before, but a virus is much more patient than us, and never gets bored or tired,so it's a foot race between the human strength in the science of the vaccination and its strengths as a virus.

 

So, here's hoping we win, and the vaccination program means that it isn't necessary, or if it is, that it is brief.

[yorkie1999]

2 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

I agree, but I don’t agree that the solution here is to never let anyone leave the country.

Yes you a right and I can’t wait to get away, but if there is a rule that says I have to quarantine or isolate on my return, I won’t go abroad. So why have  1.5 million people since January been allowed to enter the country, by the government, with apparently no enforced isolation? It doesn’t seem to be a very clever way to get us out of this mess, and if we do end up with another lockdown, it will be solely the responsibility of the government. Most people are trying their hardest but it seem a few public school boys are fvcking it up for everyone.

[dsr-burnley]

29 minutes ago, Soup said:

OK I get you. Wajt till everyone is doubled, say October then. Obviously they won't open up in the Autumn. So looking like April next year then?

I think you'll find by next April they will need to delay because they won't know whether we need a vaccine booster jab or whether a new variant is on the way.

[Leicester_Loyal]

I'm going for most restrictions ending on 21st June, but masks and social distancing are to be kept whilst their continue to get more people vaccinated.

 

We should all be vaccinated with both jabs by about September shouldn't we?

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

8 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I think you'll find by next April they will need to delay because they won't know whether we need a vaccine booster jab or whether a new variant is on the way.

They’ll always be a new variant, I’m worried we are  stuck in this vicious circle indefinitely.

 

[dsr-burnley]

5 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I'm going for most restrictions ending on 21st June, but masks and social distancing are to be kept whilst their continue to get more people vaccinated.

 

We should all be vaccinated with both jabs by about September shouldn't we?

Unfortunately only adults will  be vaccinated.  You may have noticed some recent sites have been quoting the proportion of the total population that has been vaccinated - this is presumably preparing the way for saying that even in Septembe,r only 80% of the popualation has been vaccinated and we must wait until it is higher.

[dsr-burnley]

45 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

They do work, which is why we need to delay and double vaccinate everyone. The NHS is very busy and would struggle with another wave of covid admissions. When the numbers shoot up (and they will looking at the trend) the virus reaches those who will get critically ill. Fully unlocking this year would just be the stupidest thing.

How many cases do you think the NHS could cope with?  At present it is 870 people in hospital across the country.  Is that doable?  In January it was about 40,000 patients, which obviously is not doable.  But of course the vaccine effect and possibly other effects is very much mitigating the numbers.  In January, 10% of cases went to hospital and stayed an average of 10 days.  Now, 4% of cases go to hospital and stay an average of 7 days.  So whereas in January 40,000 cases per day meant 40,000 people in hospital, now 40,000 cases per day would mean 10,000 people in hospital.  And that's assuming of course that the numbers are as bad in August as they were in January, which means the Indian variant would have to be so much more transmissible that it would outperform the summer effect and the vaccine effect by a huge factor.

 

So how many is too many?

[yorkie1999]

3 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

How many cases do you think the NHS could cope with?  At present it is 870 people in hospital across the country.  Is that doable?  In January it was about 40,000 patients, which obviously is not doable.  But of course the vaccine effect and possibly other effects is very much mitigating the numbers.  In January, 10% of cases went to hospital and stayed an average of 10 days.  Now, 4% of cases go to hospital and stay an average of 7 days.  So whereas in January 40,000 cases per day meant 40,000 people in hospital, now 40,000 cases per day would mean 10,000 people in hospital.  And that's assuming of course that the numbers are as bad in August as they were in January, which means the Indian variant would have to be so much more transmissible that it would outperform the summer effect and the vaccine effect by a huge factor.

 

So how many is too many?

Well 40000 was doable, because they did it.

[VLC86]

22 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Yes you a right and I can’t wait to get away, but if there is a rule that says I have to quarantine or isolate on my return, I won’t go abroad. So why have  1.5 million people since January been allowed to enter the country, by the government, with apparently no enforced isolation? It doesn’t seem to be a very clever way to get us out of this mess, and if we do end up with another lockdown, it will be solely the responsibility of the government. Most people are trying their hardest but it seem a few public school boys are fvcking it up for everyone.

Agreed that the government have ****ed up by not insisting people travelling from India should be quarantined.

[doverfox]

This is an interesting article about Swedens approach

 https://abcnews.go.com/International/sweden-avoided-covid-19-lockdown-strategy-worked/story?id=76047258

The is going to be more waves vaccination doesnt stop you getting infected or passing it on it does however give the body a head start on fighting the infection. The question that we dont know is if the will there be mass hospitalisations during the next wave given that the groups which are most likely to need hospital care in the previous waves have immune systems that are better placed to deal with infection next time round.

[dsr-burnley]

5 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Well 40000 was doable, because they did it.

But it severely messed up the normal running of the hospitals.  I expect z-layrex will understand what I meant.