Zear0 Posted 8 July 2023 Posted 8 July 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, gerblod said: I guess they'd be useful in clearing the extensive minefields Russian forces have emplaced in order to slow the Ukrainian advance. There's been speculation that, once these obstacles have been breached, the Russian troops behind them will begin to waver. Apparently, there are special army units tasked with shooting those who desert their stations. Was reading the ISW daily update who reported something similar. They've basically committed their entire army for the defense of the line and if it cracks it'll be hard to stop. Two ways of reading this announcement on cluster munitions. They've either seen this as a golden opportunity to potentially end it, or it really isn't going smoothly and it's a desperate move. I'm still more aligned to the former as the Ukrainian's have been after ATACMS for ages and would imagine the US providing these as a final throw of the dice. Slightly reassuring they're not yet throwing in the kitchen sink. Cluster bombs are wicked (in the pre-Ali G definition), but I think they'd be useful here. Given the entire country needs de-mining from the Russians use of absolute garbage cluster bombs and anti-personel mines it's not quite the same as littering safe ground with these things. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2023 "The deployment of almost the entirety of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces and extensive SMD elements to the frontline in southern Ukraine suggests that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine may be brittle. Mashovets’ report suggests that the only reserve that the Russian military maintains in southern Ukraine consists of elements of the 29th Combined Arms Army – the Eastern Military District’s smallest combined arms army that has only one maneuver brigade: the 36thMotorized Rifle Brigade. Elements of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in the Battle of Kyiv in early 2022 and fought near Vuhledar in early 2023 and are thus likely degraded.[15] Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, while formidable, are not insurmountable. Russian forces in southern Ukraine would likely have to fall back on prepared defensive positions without significant support from operational reserves if Ukrainian forces achieved an operational breakthrough. Withdrawal in contact is an exceedingly difficult military task, and it is unclear that Russian forces in contact would be able to successfully withdraw from their first lines to other prepared lines in good order, especially if those forces - and the forces behind them in echelon - are worn-down and unsupported. ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a gradual effort to systematically degrade Russian combat power in southern Ukraine over time, increasing the brittleness of the Russian defenses." Edited 8 July 2023 by Zear0 2
gerblod Posted 8 July 2023 Posted 8 July 2023 7 hours ago, fox_favourite said: To employ men to shoot your own...that's horrendous. Having fear from the front and fear from behind..... Common practice in the White vs Red post-revolution war and the 2nd WW. Combat reveals the worst in the human psyche. I wasn't surprised to hear that, as well as eligible Ukrainian men avoiding service through bribery or fleeing the country, some men who had done a stint at the front decided they weren't returning as it was too brutal to bear. The Hungarian border police have apprehended 6000 men crossing their border with Ukraine in the past three months. But one guy who's lost part of his leg has returned to the front! Some men are way too sensitive to be soldiers.
Zear0 Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 Pains me to say this, but I think Zelenskyy needs to wind this NATO membership crusade back a bit. He's acknowledged that Ukraine can't join whilst in a war so not sure exactly why he's throwing shade that they're not having some "pathway (whatever that means)". They've had a pathway since 2008. Whilst I can see it being a strong negotiating chip if they were offered membership (ie, Russia f**k off and we won't join NATO), but he needs to not get members backs up and think yesterday's rant might have done that a bit.
Countryfox Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 1 hour ago, Zear0 said: Pains me to say this, but I think Zelenskyy needs to wind this NATO membership crusade back a bit. He's acknowledged that Ukraine can't join whilst in a war so not sure exactly why he's throwing shade that they're not having some "pathway (whatever that means)". They've had a pathway since 2008. Whilst I can see it being a strong negotiating chip if they were offered membership (ie, Russia f**k off and we won't join NATO), but he needs to not get members backs up and think yesterday's rant might have done that a bit. Yes they were promised membership in 2008 but 14 years later and they are still not in .. there was certainly an element of let’s not fvck the Russians off but in effect Putin (as we all know) saw that as a weakness and took Crimea and subsequently launched a full scale invasion .. maybe Zelensky is reasonably thinking all this bloodshed and trauma his country is suffering could have been averted if they had pulled their finger out. And now they are still dilly dallying ! ..
leicsmac Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 1 hour ago, Zear0 said: Pains me to say this, but I think Zelenskyy needs to wind this NATO membership crusade back a bit. He's acknowledged that Ukraine can't join whilst in a war so not sure exactly why he's throwing shade that they're not having some "pathway (whatever that means)". They've had a pathway since 2008. Whilst I can see it being a strong negotiating chip if they were offered membership (ie, Russia f**k off and we won't join NATO), but he needs to not get members backs up and think yesterday's rant might have done that a bit. 4 minutes ago, Countryfox said: Yes they were promised membership in 2008 but 14 years later and they are still not in .. there was certainly an element of let’s not fvck the Russians off but in effect Putin (as we all know) saw that as a weakness and took Crimea and subsequently launched a full scale invasion .. maybe Zelensky is reasonably thinking all this bloodshed and trauma his country is suffering could have been averted if they had pulled their finger out. And now they are still dilly dallying ! .. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course. IMO Zelensky is doing a mix of tough talk on the world stage to shore up the home front, and also perhaps just a stress reaction from a man who has had a pretty difficult job for the past year and a half. It's understandable, but it isn't necessarily rational or productive - both of which are required to actually end this matter in the favour of him and his country.
MPH Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 (edited) It’s one Reason why Russia will probably maintain some kind of fighting force in Ukraine for some time- a warring nation ( Ukraine) can not join NATO. And for this reason alone, NATO can not give Zelensky an exact time frame of when they can join. i understand Ukraine’s desperation for weapons and some of ‘pushy’ wording used to obtain the weapons over the last 18 months but, Zelensky perhaps need to tone it down a little bit and maybe not try and bite the hand that feeds him..: Edited 13 July 2023 by MPH
Fox1norfolk Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 46 minutes ago, MPH said: It’s one Reason why Russia will probably maintain some kind of fighting force in Ukraine for some time- a warring nation ( Ukraine) can not join NATO. And for this reason alone, NATO can not give Zelensky an exact time frame of when they can join. i understand Ukraine’s desperation for weapons and some of ‘pushy’ wording used to obtain the wording over the last 18 months but, Zelensky perhaps need to tone it down a little bit and maybe not try and bite the hand that feeds him..: 46 minutes ago, MPH said: It’s one Reason why Russia will probably maintain some kind of fighting force in Ukraine for some time- a warring nation ( Ukraine) can not join NATO. And for this reason alone, NATO can not give Zelensky an exact time frame of when they can join. i understand Ukraine’s desperation for weapons and some of ‘pushy’ wording used to obtain the wording over the last 18 months but, Zelensky perhaps need to tone it down a little bit and maybe not try and bite the hand that feeds him..: Mr Zelensky has his own agenda to escalate the war,.I do not trust him. 1
MPH Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Fox1norfolk said: Mr Zelensky has his own agenda to escalate the war,.I do not trust him. escalate the war? All he wants is for the Russians to bugger off. Edited 12 July 2023 by MPH 1
Detroit Blues Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 On 08/07/2023 at 07:11, Zear0 said: Was reading the ISW daily update who reported something similar. They've basically committed their entire army for the defense of the line and if it cracks it'll be hard to stop. Two ways of reading this announcement on cluster munitions. They've either seen this as a golden opportunity to potentially end it, or it really isn't going smoothly and it's a desperate move. I'm still more aligned to the former as the Ukrainian's have been after ATACMS for ages and would imagine the US providing these as a final throw of the dice. Slightly reassuring they're not yet throwing in the kitchen sink. Cluster bombs are wicked (in the pre-Ali G definition), but I think they'd be useful here. Given the entire country needs de-mining from the Russians use of absolute garbage cluster bombs and anti-personel mines it's not quite the same as littering safe ground with these things. One thing about the cluster munitions. I was listening to NPR over here in the states, and one of the military analysts was talking about two big reasons why the Biden Administration has agreed to supply cluster munitions: 1) Ukraine is shooting off more artillery munitions than the west can manufacture. They said that the most munitions Ukraine has used in a day's combat was 9000 shells, and Europe's current manufacturing capacity only generates something like 10,000 of the munitions a month. 2) This war is very much about using artillery as a counter-battery to silence Russian artillery, and also to attrit Russian forces to the point that Ukraine can punch a hole through the defenses, or make a breakthrough. Good information about this from this Danish Military Analyst - Essentially he says, in the West we use overwhelming air and sea power to attrit our enemies (like the shock and awe campaign in Iraq). Ukraine needs to replicate this using only artillery, as we have not supplied them with enough air power to do so. That's where cluster munitions step in. They not only replace the shortage on artillery munitions, but provide added power to attrit Russian forces more quickly, so Ukraine can have enough time before the weather gets bad to do maneuvering combat and take over much more territory. 1
LCFCCHRIS Posted 12 July 2023 Posted 12 July 2023 19 minutes ago, Detroit Blues said: One thing about the cluster munitions. I was listening to NPR over here in the states, and one of the military analysts was talking about two big reasons why the Biden Administration has agreed to supply cluster munitions: 1) Ukraine is shooting off more artillery munitions than the west can manufacture. They said that the most munitions Ukraine has used in a day's combat was 9000 shells, and Europe's current manufacturing capacity only generates something like 10,000 of the munitions a month. 2) This war is very much about using artillery as a counter-battery to silence Russian artillery, and also to attrit Russian forces to the point that Ukraine can punch a hole through the defenses, or make a breakthrough. Good information about this from this Danish Military Analyst - Essentially he says, in the West we use overwhelming air and sea power to attrit our enemies (like the shock and awe campaign in Iraq). Ukraine needs to replicate this using only artillery, as we have not supplied them with enough air power to do so. That's where cluster munitions step in. They not only replace the shortage on artillery munitions, but provide added power to attrit Russian forces more quickly, so Ukraine can have enough time before the weather gets bad to do maneuvering combat and take over much more territory. Had a feeling it was due to ammo shortages. IMO it’s completely justified to use them, I’m sure the Ukrainian public want them to be used. The Russians use them already IIRC.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 13 July 2023 Posted 13 July 2023 15 hours ago, Countryfox said: Yes they were promised membership in 2008 but 14 years later and they are still not in .. there was certainly an element of let’s not fvck the Russians off but in effect Putin (as we all know) saw that as a weakness and took Crimea and subsequently launched a full scale invasion .. maybe Zelensky is reasonably thinking all this bloodshed and trauma his country is suffering could have been averted if they had pulled their finger out. And now they are still dilly dallying ! .. it wouldn’t have been averted, it’d have just meant that this war would’ve happened earlier
Jon the Hat Posted 13 July 2023 Posted 13 July 2023 I'm not sure NATO even want Ukraine in at all. At the moment, they are having a near perfect war with Russia; No boots on the ground and very substantial degradation of Russia's ability. Also if you are the US, UK, even Germany or France the fact that Poland, Finland, Sweden putting their hand in their pockets to either join of indeed beef up their military is a boon. 1
Countryfox Posted 13 July 2023 Posted 13 July 2023 39 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: I'm not sure NATO even want Ukraine in at all. At the moment, they are having a near perfect war with Russia; No boots on the ground and very substantial degradation of Russia's ability. Also if you are the US, UK, even Germany or France the fact that Poland, Finland, Sweden putting their hand in their pockets to either join of indeed beef up their military is a boon. Spot on Jon .. wanted to post something like that earlier but ran out of time. Maybe not all or most of NATO but certainly the US .. they can be absolutely ruthless when they want to be. 1
MPH Posted 13 July 2023 Posted 13 July 2023 9 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: I'm not sure NATO even want Ukraine in at all. At the moment, they are having a near perfect war with Russia; No boots on the ground and very substantial degradation of Russia's ability. Also if you are the US, UK, even Germany or France the fact that Poland, Finland, Sweden putting their hand in their pockets to either join of indeed beef up their military is a boon. i have to say for the United States, this is a near perfect war too. Dealing with Russia is a much more serious business than Afghanistan and yet they’ve done it for a fraction of the cost whilst recycling weapons and munitions that were coming to the end of their shelf life ( by American standards) all whilst, as you say, no boots on the grounds. Russia appears to be even more isolated than ever before and they’ve even started fighting amongst themselves . I mean it’s a goal from the half way line if ever I saw one… 1
Detroit Blues Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 On 13/07/2023 at 08:30, MPH said: i have to say for the United States, this is a near perfect war too. Dealing with Russia is a much more serious business than Afghanistan and yet they’ve done it for a fraction of the cost whilst recycling weapons and munitions that were coming to the end of their shelf life ( by American standards) all whilst, as you say, no boots on the grounds. Russia appears to be even more isolated than ever before and they’ve even started fighting amongst themselves . I mean it’s a goal from the half way line if ever I saw one… I think it certainly has been. That said, I think our returns are now diminishing. The longer this war drags on, the benefit provided to the west reduces as we have to throw more and more resources at it. Russia is happy to create a long term attritional war where they can solidify their gains and exhaust the West of their resources and attention. They think eventually we will find the war to be too expensive, or there will be another distraction for our time and treasure. To an extent, I believe that to be true. We are likely one bad presidential election result in the US from losing the political desire to continue to support Ukraine. That is part of the reason why I believe the Biden Administration wants to turn over the weapons to Ukraine needed to speed up the counter offensive. There is a ticking clock towards Western Support drying up, and they need results to show back home to justify it. That is why, in my opinion, Ukraine is trying to retake Bakhmut, even though it's tactically unimportant. It would be a symbol that they retook city, and it would be severely damaging to Putin domestically. In the same way that the Vietcong knew that part of the war was damaging the American Publics desire/will to fight, each side is trying to destroy each other's base of support. Ukraine is trying to make the war deeply unpopular in Russia, and Russia is trying to make the war seem like a bottomless money pit that the West will be unable to justify to their own constituents.
MPH Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Detroit Blues said: I think it certainly has been. That said, I think our returns are now diminishing. The longer this war drags on, the benefit provided to the west reduces as we have to throw more and more resources at it. Russia is happy to create a long term attritional war where they can solidify their gains and exhaust the West of their resources and attention. They think eventually we will find the war to be too expensive, or there will be another distraction for our time and treasure. To an extent, I believe that to be true. We are likely one bad presidential election result in the US from losing the political desire to continue to support Ukraine. I wouldn’t say our gains are diminishing at all.. The Russian economy continues to shrink, Putin is more isolated than ever before ..there’s infighting within Russian federal departments and I certainly don’t think Russia is solidifying any gains- they continue to lose ground they gained on a weekly basis, albeit slowly.. Russia is having its own ammo supply issues and this was one of the main concerns for the Wagner group and their supposed Mutiny.. Ukraine hasn’t even committed even half of the organized and trained battalions to the counter offensive yet and Ukraine Training on the F16s has finally began. it’s a slow war admittedly, but the Ukrainians have way more reason to be optimistic now than they did 4-5 months ago.. Edited 14 July 2023 by MPH
Countryfox Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 1 hour ago, Detroit Blues said: I think it certainly has been. That said, I think our returns are now diminishing. The longer this war drags on, the benefit provided to the west reduces as we have to throw more and more resources at it. Russia is happy to create a long term attritional war where they can solidify their gains and exhaust the West of their resources and attention. They think eventually we will find the war to be too expensive, or there will be another distraction for our time and treasure. To an extent, I believe that to be true. We are likely one bad presidential election result in the US from losing the political desire to continue to support Ukraine. That is part of the reason why I believe the Biden Administration wants to turn over the weapons to Ukraine needed to speed up the counter offensive. There is a ticking clock towards Western Support drying up, and they need results to show back home to justify it. That is why, in my opinion, Ukraine is trying to retake Bakhmut, even though it's tactically unimportant. It would be a symbol that they retook city, and it would be severely damaging to Putin domestically. In the same way that the Vietcong knew that part of the war was damaging the American Publics desire/will to fight, each side is trying to destroy each other's base of support. Ukraine is trying to make the war deeply unpopular in Russia, and Russia is trying to make the war seem like a bottomless money pit that the West will be unable to justify to their own constituents. Yes ,we are having to throw more and more resources at it ... except one of course .. human lives .. but as already said we are using up older stock and it is weakening Russia massively (remember 'we' are a large coalition of western countries so the burden is shared). Not sure if the US will ever stop supplying either .. again as already said this is the perfect war for them ... and always will be whoever the president is. .. Russia weak .. more money spent on western defences and a greatly enlarged NATO that in effect puts a solid wall down the side of Europe. Regarding the supply of weapons .. we are feeding in more and more potent weapons so as to keep momentum going .. cluster bombs .. then longer range ATACMS maybe .. and finally F16's. In the greater scheme of things this is the right way to do it ... so that Russia is so weakened it will not be able to cause trouble and suffering for a long time to come .. and by slowly feeding them in it will give Putin less of an excuse to go nuclear or take some other form of drastic action.
kenny Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 37 minutes ago, Countryfox said: Yes ,we are having to throw more and more resources at it ... except one of course .. human lives .. but as already said we are using up older stock and it is weakening Russia massively (remember 'we' are a large coalition of western countries so the burden is shared). Not sure if the US will ever stop supplying either .. again as already said this is the perfect war for them ... and always will be whoever the president is. .. Russia weak .. more money spent on western defences and a greatly enlarged NATO that in effect puts a solid wall down the side of Europe. Regarding the supply of weapons .. we are feeding in more and more potent weapons so as to keep momentum going .. cluster bombs .. then longer range ATACMS maybe .. and finally F16's. In the greater scheme of things this is the right way to do it ... so that Russia is so weakened it will not be able to cause trouble and suffering for a long time to come .. and by slowly feeding them in it will give Putin less of an excuse to go nuclear or take some other form of drastic action. It's also worth remembering that 250k of working age men have been killed (mostly in the 18-30 age bracket). This alone will have a significant effect on the future economy of Russia.
Captain... Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, kenny said: It's also worth remembering that 250k of working age men have been killed (mostly in the 18-30 age bracket). This alone will have a significant effect on the future economy of Russia. There will be an impact felt but 250k is only about 1% of the males between 18-44. (140,000,000 population 34% 18-44 assuming 50/50 gender split = 23,800,000 males 18-44). Although the latest figures have put the number of deaths at around 50,000. Edited 14 July 2023 by Captain...
kenny Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 37 minutes ago, Captain... said: There will be an impact felt but 250k is only about 1% of the males between 18-44. (140,000,000 population 34% 18-44 assuming 50/50 gender split = 23,800,000 males 18-44). Although the latest figures have put the number of deaths at around 50,000. I think the 50k figure is the russian one. The Ukrainian one is 250k, in addition there will be the injured and permanently incapacitated figure which won't be measurable. Furthermore, there have have been millions that have left the country since the war started. The UK mod estimated the figure to be 1.3m in 2022. Many of these will be the wealthy middle classes and educated that can afford to leave. I think they will suffer from both labour shortages and brain drain once the war is over.
Captain... Posted 14 July 2023 Posted 14 July 2023 13 minutes ago, kenny said: I think the 50k figure is the russian one. The Ukrainian one is 250k, in addition there will be the injured and permanently incapacitated figure which won't be measurable. Furthermore, there have have been millions that have left the country since the war started. The UK mod estimated the figure to be 1.3m in 2022. Many of these will be the wealthy middle classes and educated that can afford to leave. I think they will suffer from both labour shortages and brain drain once the war is over. All true and I agree the impact will be felt, but the actual direct casualties from the fighting will be minimal, unless it escalates significantly. The political and economic impact of the war, including the migration, will have a greater impact than the deaths of 250k-500k soldiers.
MPH Posted 16 July 2023 Posted 16 July 2023 (edited) If the Ukraine army does eventually break through, there will be a massive advancement in a short space of time as this is when the waiting Ikrainian battalions will be called into action, and a massive, fast, retreat from the Russian Army. Positions will be abandoned, orders will be ignored and the Russian Army will be in disarray. I believe the cluster munitions will be used mainly for clearing the multiple layers of ten hrs I actually think this could be a dangerous time for Ukraine because I believe a scorned Putin will become unpredictable. How can he purge generals he is already purging as we speak? He’ll take it out on Ukraine itself. It could all boil down to just how much the incidents with Wagner has damaged Putin’s grip on power. Will He have the support to step it up a notch and use localized Nuclear weapons? Edited 16 July 2023 by MPH
Lionator Posted 16 July 2023 Posted 16 July 2023 6 minutes ago, MPH said: If the Ukraine army does eventually break through, there will be a massive advancement in a short space of time as this is when the waiting Ikrainian battalions will be called into action, and a massive, fast, retreat from the Russian Army. Positions will be abandoned, orders will be ignored and the Russian Army will be in disarray. I believe the cluster munitions will be used mainly for clearing the multiple layers of ten hrs I actually think this could be a dangerous time for Ukraine because I believe a scorned Putin will become unpredictable. How can he purge generals he is already relaxing as we speak? He’ll take it out on Ukraine itself. It could all boil down to just how much the incidents with Wagner has damaged Putin’s grip on power. Will He have the support to step it up a notch and use localized Nuclear weapons? There’s an awful lot of conjecture, if’s and but’s here. Plus Girkin is a washed up old codger these days who will thankfully either be killed or will rot in prison after what he did, a lot of what he says doesn’t come true.
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