Relegation

[Pliskin]

5 hours ago, Gamble92 said:

 

Hard as a jelly baby me. Best know it….

[Ric Flair]

Very much like in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the media and many of our fans down the stretch, were being conned by our league position, as opposed to the points total and the same is happening this season.

 

For weeks now fans have been arguing that its not as desperate as being made out because we were 13th / 14th but a giant shit storm has been brewing and plenty seem oblivious to it. 

 

Granted its so tight that we can't assume we are all but relegated, we've 11 games left and are in pretty much the same boat as 7-8 teams but we've shown scant evidence since post the World Cup that we can average the required points total over the remaining 11 games and even if we had averaged that since December, I'm still very alarmed by Brendan's past record at managing teams down the business end of the domestic season. Right now, we ought to be very very serious candidates for not only relegation but finishing bottom of the league.

 

Well done to everyone involved in the club, what a pigs ear they have made of it. 11 games to save our future, time to deal with the elephant in the room.

[Pliskin]

18 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Very much like in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the media and many of our fans down the stretch, were being conned by our league position, as opposed to the points total and the same is happening this season.

 

For weeks now fans have been arguing that its not as desperate as being made out because we were 13th / 14th but a giant shit storm has been brewing and plenty seem oblivious to it. 

 

Granted its so tight that we can't assume we are all but relegated, we've 11 games left and are in pretty much the same boat as 7-8 teams but we've shown scant evidence since post the World Cup that we can average the required points total over the remaining 11 games and even if we had averaged that since December, I'm still very alarmed by Brendan's past record at managing teams down the business end of the domestic season. Right now, we ought to be very very serious candidates for not only relegation but finishing bottom of the league.

 

Well done to everyone involved in the club, what a pigs ear they have made of it. 11 games to save our future, time to deal with the elephant in the room.

But remember, Ric. He won us the FA cup! And we can’t possibly criticise Top et al, because of the free mince pies! #bestrunclubinthworld

[Dan]

On 22/03/2023 at 09:29, Ric Flair said:

Very much like in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the media and many of our fans down the stretch, were being conned by our league position, as opposed to the points total and the same is happening this season.

 

For weeks now fans have been arguing that its not as desperate as being made out because we were 13th / 14th but a giant shit storm has been brewing and plenty seem oblivious to it. 

 

Granted its so tight that we can't assume we are all but relegated, we've 11 games left and are in pretty much the same boat as 7-8 teams but we've shown scant evidence since post the World Cup that we can average the required points total over the remaining 11 games and even if we had averaged that since December, I'm still very alarmed by Brendan's past record at managing teams down the business end of the domestic season. Right now, we ought to be very very serious candidates for not only relegation but finishing bottom of the league.

 

Well done to everyone involved in the club, what a pigs ear they have made of it. 11 games to save our future, time to deal with the elephant in the room.

Yeah but be careful what you wish for. You wouldn't want... oh.

[Les-TA-Jon]

The Run In

 

Going to be a nail-biting finish for all involved. 

 

I hope we're not relying on many points out of those final 4 games. Fulham chasing top 7, Liverpool chasing top 4, Newcastle chasing top 7, West Ham final day drama? 

 

Might mean we need to win 3 or 4 out of the next 7 games...

 

But looks like everyone has a similarly nasty final 4 games. 

 

Form

Also looking at form - I looked at performance of each team over the period equivalent to their remaining games:

 

Obviously incredibly unlikely that all 9 teams maintain the same form, but not great reading

 

Previous Performance

Also looked at points totals for each team's return fixtures:

 

Edited 28 March 2023 by Les-TA-Jon

[Dan]

We need 7 points from the next 3 for me. Do that and I think we'll be fine. Have no real hope we'll actually get that many though. We've picked up 8 since the World Cup.

[Guy]

On 21/03/2023 at 18:14, LCFCJohn said:

Expectations well and truly have been changed.

 

If we stay up, next season the expectation will be to try and get to 40 points and if we could get to the end of next season with two 17th placed finishes this season and next, I’d be delighted with that!

Yep we could be turning into the next Coventry or Luton of the 80s at this rate - with one of or both always scraping by to preserve their old top flight status back then. It was more of a pride thing back then but now dropping into the Championship and not getting back up within two years is likely to be financially catastrophic.

[reynard]

What do you need to do to stay up?

 

keep some clean sheets:  Not very good at that.

have some shots on target:  No not at all recently

Score some goals:  Not very good at that lately either.

have a manager with a plan B when things don't work:  No can't tick that box either.

At least have a team full of fighters and players who don't buckle at the first bad moment:  No we can't  tick that box either.

 

Can't see us getting 35 points in all honesty.

Edited 28 March 2023 by reynard

[Paninistickers]

7 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

The Run In

 

Going to be a nail-biting finish for all involved. 

 

I hope we're not relying on many points out of those final 4 games. Fulham chasing top 7, Liverpool chasing top 4, Newcastle chasing top 7, West Ham final day drama? 

 

Might mean we need to win 3 or 4 out of the next 7 games...

 

But looks like everyone has a similarly nasty final 4 games. 

 

Form

Also looking at form - I looked at performance of each team over the period equivalent to their remaining games:

 

Obviously incredibly unlikely that all 9 teams maintain the same form, but not great reading

 

Previous Performance

Also looked at points totals for each team's return fixtures:

 

My gut feel is wolves are in trouble. They've had a good run, a new manager bounce and still in a ton of trouble.  and have 4 games in their run in that are unlikely to win. 

 

Southampton may as well jack it in. 

 

Bournemouth are the likeliest next bet. But they have guts, which worries me. Everton run in looks the hardest 

[Nalis]

Did the predictor thing and this is what I ended up with. 

 

 

Fvck knows how I ended up with Everton on 40 points.

 

Had us already safe on the last day on 36 points and beating West Ham on the final day to keep Forest, imagine that.

[Happy Fox]

6 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Did the predictor thing and this is what I ended up with. 

 

 

Fvck knows how I ended up with Everton on 40 points.

 

Had us already safe on the last day on 36 points and beating West Ham on the final day to keep Forest, imagine that.

How did we manage 39 points? 

[Nalis]

5 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

How did we manage 39 points? 

Magic

[Les-TA-Jon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64985188

 

 

Article makes no attempt to explain or justify those figures though

 

[wardyfox86]

7 points from April and I'll believe we have enough.

 

Must wins are Bournemouth (h) and Wolves (h)

 

Must not lose are Palace (a) and Leeds (a)

 

Can't see all that happening but if it's not us, a couple of teams need to go on a run and get out of it, can't afford for teams around us to keep trading blows. Forest's away form means they have a tough run in, Southampton too. Bournemouth only play West Ham and Leeds at home from the bottom 12. My gut says those 3, but we'd be 4th bet for me.

Edited 30 March 2023 by wardyfox86

[Dan]

On 29/03/2023 at 07:49, Nalis said:

Did the predictor thing and this is what I ended up with. 

 

 

Fvck knows how I ended up with Everton on 40 points.

 

Had us already safe on the last day on 36 points and beating West Ham on the final day to keep Forest, imagine that.

That honestly wouldn't surprise me - he somehow ends up managing to spin finishing on 39 points like it was a good season. Not dissimilar to last season albeit with the obvious regression.

[FoxinNotts]

Between now and the end of the season, imagine if....

 

Jamie Vardy goes on a mini scoring run

Daka puts together a string of winning goal scoring performances

Tete shows his true amazing skills

A partnership of Souttar and Faes solidifies to gain us some clean sheets

There are no silly mistakes made, or unforced errors made!

Brendan picks the side that the majority of fans want to see week in week out

An atmosphere is created at the KP and our home form makes Filbert Way a 'fortress'

We stay relatively injury free

We get more than our fair share of luck with pennos, red cards, etc

Maddison produces an amazing assists stat for the end of the season

 

If just one of the above happens, there's a chance we'll stay up 

 

 

 

[David Hankey]

In truth the results of the next 2 games will tell us where we'll end up.

[Les-TA-Jon]

3 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

In truth the results of the next 2 games will tell us where we'll end up.

What if we lose the next 2 but win 4 out of the remaining 9 matches? 

[FoxinNotts]

1 minute ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

What if we lose the next 2 but win 4 out of the remaining 9 matches? 

the club has to go into liquidation

[coolhandfox]

3 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

In truth the results of the next 2 games will tell us where we'll end up.

Next for me.

 

Palace A

Villa H 

Bournemouth H

 

Need to win two of those really.

 

 

[coolhandfox]

2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

What if we lose the next 2 but win 4 out of the remaining 9 matches? 

True, but it just builds pressure.

 

If we can get ahead of the game it takes the pressure of and makes it a lot easier.

 

[justfoxes]

On 29/03/2023 at 07:55, Happy Fox said:

How did we manage 39 points? 

Brendan won’t be happy he wanted 40 he’ll  add FT to the list of others to blame now !!

🤨🤔 

[justfoxes]

7 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Next for me.

 

Palace A

Villa H 

Bournemouth H

 

Need to win two of those really.

 

 

If our lads pull their thumbs out their arses and play how we know they can eg Villa & Spuds I can’t see why we can’t win all 3 ?

[TJQuik]

A lot of us are trying to come to terms with relegation, but we're still in the period where we can put off thinking about how gutted we will feel if that does happen. The last few matches are going to be almost as horrifying to watch as the run in at the end of the title winning season. I'm just praying we can string a few results together now and get some breathing space.

[SK3Blue]

Only way I can see us picking up points is if Evans comes in, stays fit and works well with Souttar. A big ask. What's behind them is a huge concern, Iversen and Ward are not good enough. I'll accept that Iversen needs a run in the side but you want PL experience in a relegation scrap.

 

 

 

Also need good form and injury free spells from Maddison and Barnes. 

 

 

 

Striker situation is dire, not one of them is consistent, players like Tete, Praet are not going to pull us through this with goal contributions.

 

 

 

It's looking bleak, and Brendans little clap from the halfway line is as weak his excuses. Pretty sure only Evans and Vardy would have experience of a relegation scrap, I look at some of these players and they don't have the stomach for the fight.