Theoretical Last Day Situation

[leicsmac]

Something that has crossed my mind yesterday, that I would appreciate more input on.

 

There's a possible situation, that I have put in the pic below: West Ham and Leicester on the same points total going into the last game, Forest two points behind. (I've attached the pic just to show such a situation is theoretically possible in the first instance, I'm sure other combinations of results involving other teams than Forest are possible too.)

 

In this case, both West Ham and Leicester would need just a draw to stay up (Forests vastly inferior GD means overhauling that being so implausible as to be impossible).

 

My point of discussion is...is there any rule at the present time that would prevent Leicester and West Ham simply playing out a draw by kicking the ball around their defences for 90 minutes? Does this fall under "illegal manipulation of match results", eg match-fixing, even though there might be no explicit agreement between the teams to do so, just an implied one? What would, or could the PL do in terms of sanction, if anything? Or would it be a case of a lot of people - Forest fans (but who gives a fvck about them?) and neutrals tutting about the lack of ethics of it all, but no sanction because no rule has actually been broken?

 

I can only find one precedent of a similar type: in 1898 both Stoke and Burnley just needed a draw to be promoted, which they got by blatantly colluding. The League didn't sanction them, but it did promote them and the other teams involved too.

 

I mean, the odds of this actually becoming a situation are really remote, but you would think it's something the PL are looking at already, as implausible as it is.

 

Would welcome some discussion on the matter.

 

 

Edited 7 May 2023 by leicsmac

[Vacamion]

 

If it isn't breaking any laws, there would be a LOT  of "this goes against the spirit of football" chat and we would be villified.

 

We might get away with passing it around for 5 minutes at the end, but a whole match? 

 

There would be an outcry.

 

 

[leicsmac]

Just now, Vacamion said:

 

If it isn't breaking any laws, there would be a LOT  of "this goes against the spirit of football" chat and we would be villified.

 

We might get away with passing it around for 5 minutes at the end, but a whole match? 

 

There would be an outcry.

 

 

That would be my thought too. Perhaps enough of one for the PL to establish their own precedent and make an example of both WHU and ourselves.

[onekeithweller]

A similar scenario occurred during the 1982 World Cup, it wasn't received well but there was no sanction of the teams involved, West Germany and Austria. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijón

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, onekeithweller said:

A similar scenario occurred during the 1982 World Cup, it wasn't received well but there was no sanction of the teams involved, West Germany and Austria. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gijón

Yeah, I looked that one up too. No sanction, but FIFA did take measures to ensure it wouldn't be repeated. Obviously you can't really do that with this situation, though.

[Aus Fox]

Was it Sweden v Denmark at a recent World Cup that needed a 2-2 draw to see them both go through and they got it?

I would imagine both teams would go out to win in this scenario, but if we got to 15/20 minutes to go and scores are level I couldn’t imagine anyone going hung ho to score and risk conceding one.

[kushiro]

Something similar happened at the end of the 1948/49 season in Division Two when Leicester stayed up and Forest were relegated. I'm just writing a post about it  - coming soon on the Leicester v Forest Relegation Scraps thread.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, kushiro said:

Something similar happened at the end of the 1948/49 season in Division Two when Leicester stayed up and Forest were relegated. I'm just writing a post about it  - coming soon on the Leicester v Forest Relegation Scraps thread.

Look forward to reading it. Your knowledge of statistics on these matters is unrivaled.

[fox_up_north]

The World Cup 82 scenario is the closest. I can imagine that, if West Ham were getting ready for European final and both Moyes and Smith wanted the season over, there'd be a wink and a nod. 

 

I can imagine that some (the relegated teams) would grumble but, given just how much rides on EPL success, most would say fair play. 

[ClaphamFox]

On the last day of the season in 1978 Southampton and Spurs played out a mutually-beneficial 0-0 draw that resulted in them both being promoted from the second division. Danny Kelly, who was there, was going on about it on the radio a few days ago. The game became known as ‘the great stitch-up’ and according to Kelly it definitely was. 

[Deeg67]

There was also a situation in the 2018  World Cup where Japan, based on the status of the other game in their group, stopped trying during their final group stage match against Poland and basically kicked the ball around for most of the second half.  They lost the game but knew they'd advance as long as they didn't allow another goal.  There were no consequences apart from booing and the press grumbling, and there wouldn't be here.  It's bad for the game but there's nothing in the rules to stop it from happening.

[Matt]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

My point of discussion is...is there any rule at the present time that would prevent Leicester and West Ham simply playing out a draw by kicking the ball around their defences for 90 minutes? Does this fall under "illegal manipulation of match results", eg match-fixing, even though there might be no explicit agreement between the teams to do so, just an implied one? What would, or could the PL do in terms of sanction, if anything? Or would it be a case of a lot of people - Forest fans (but who gives a fvck about them?) and neutrals tutting about the lack of ethics of it all, but no sanction because no rule has actually been broken?

If there is, we're in deep do-do because its largely all we did under Rodgers.

 

Sorry, couldn't resist x

 

In all seriousness though the way the modern game is played i'm not sure anyone would notice, people laud it for some bizarre reason.

 

Edited 7 May 2023 by Matt

[The Year Of The Fox]

Passing it around aimlessly at the back?

 

Rodgers IN!

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Something that has crossed my mind yesterday, that I would appreciate more input on.

 

There's a possible situation, that I have put in the pic below: West Ham and Leicester on the same points total going into the last game, Forest two points behind. (I've attached the pic just to show such a situation is theoretically possible in the first instance, I'm sure other combinations of results involving other teams than Forest are possible too.)

 

In this case, both West Ham and Leicester would need just a draw to stay up (Forests vastly inferior GD means overhauling that being so implausible as to be impossible).

 

My point of discussion is...is there any rule at the present time that would prevent Leicester and West Ham simply playing out a draw by kicking the ball around their defences for 90 minutes? Does this fall under "illegal manipulation of match results", eg match-fixing, even though there might be no explicit agreement between the teams to do so, just an implied one? What would, or could the PL do in terms of sanction, if anything? Or would it be a case of a lot of people - Forest fans (but who gives a fvck about them?) and neutrals tutting about the lack of ethics of it all, but no sanction because no rule has actually been broken?

 

I can only find one precedent of a similar type: in 1898 both Stoke and Burnley just needed a draw to be promoted, which they got by blatantly colluding. The League didn't sanction them, but it did promote them and the other teams involved too.

 

I mean, the odds of this actually becoming a situation are really remote, but you would think it's something the PL are looking at already, as implausible as it is.

 

Would welcome some discussion on the matter.

 

 

My first question is, how on earth did you get Everton to be on 38 points after 37 games? 😂😂😂😂

[melvinmmelvin]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

In this case, both West Ham and Leicester would need just a draw to stay up...

 

is there any rule at the present time that would prevent Leicester and West Ham simply playing out a draw...

 

I touched on this possibility in an earlier post, but was slapped down because people (correctly) think I know nothing about football .

 

At that point, I inferred (but did not state nor imply), that Foxes and Hammers could simply play tippy-tappy.

 

To me, this comes in a similar broad category to deliberately not fielding a full-strength side.

 

I understand the 'nod and a wink, but the things against it are:

(a) So-called 'playing for pride', i.e. trying to win, anyway;

(b) the best way to secure at least a draw is by trying to win;

(c) one side renages on the 'deal'/understanding and scores, leaving the suckers with a mountain to climb;

(d) Foxes' local loyalty to Forest

(e) etc.

 

But, as I said, I know nowt about football   ..... 

[shailen]

It could well happen but it would take a mutual understanding/no risk of jeopardy from both teams. If both us and West Ham needed a draw to stsy up, who is to say they won't go for the win or that we wouldn't and that mindset might mean the game doesn't get played out for a draw. A bit of game theory might prevail in that we both become conscious of each other and both go for the win. 

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

My first question is, how on earth did you get Everton to be on 38 points after 37 games? 😂😂😂😂

An incredible piece of mathematical gymnastics.

 

But the same situation could arise with Leeds or Forest doing the same.

 

4 minutes ago, melvinmmelvin said:

I touched on this possibility in an earlier post, but was slapped down because people (correctly) think I know nothing about football .

 

At that point, I inferred (but did not state nor imply), that Foxes and Hammers could simply play tippy-tappy.

 

To me, this comes in a similar broad category to deliberately not fielding a full-strength side.

 

I understand the 'nod and a wink, but the things against it are:

(a) So-called 'playing for pride', i.e. trying to win, anyway;

(b) the best way to secure at least a draw is by trying to win;

(c) one side renages on the 'deal'/understanding and scores, leaving the suckers with a mountain to climb;

(d) Foxes' local loyalty to Forest

(e) etc.

 

But, as I said, I know nowt about football   ..... 

There may be a certain amount of game theory going on, yeah, as mentioned above.

 

Speaking personally I'd broadly agree with the general consensus that there would be an outcry but no sanction, but I wouldn't want to put money on it because I also think it possible that the outcry would get so big the PL could feel compelled to do something about it.

[ClaphamFox]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

An incredible piece of mathematical gymnastics.

 

But the same situation could arise with Leeds or Forest doing the same.

 

There may be a certain amount of game theory going on, yeah, as mentioned above.

 

Speaking personally I'd broadly agree with the general consensus that there would be an outcry but no sanction, but I wouldn't want to put money on it because I also think it possible that the outcry would get so big the PL could feel compelled to do something about it.

How would you prove it though? It’s not like a bribe where you can follow the money…

[Horibbly Wrong]

I wouldn't trust our defence to pass the ball around without scoring an own goal 

[VLC86]

1 minute ago, Horibbly Wrong said:

I wouldn't trust our defence to pass the ball around without scoring an own goal 

Beat me to it.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

How would you prove it though? It’s not like a bribe where you can follow the money…

Yeah, this among other things being why I said I would "broadly agree".

 

I still wonder what might happen if the fuss got very big, though.

 

Glad this is generating some discussion, btw.

[Sampson]

Man United and Blackburn did it about 15 years ago. Man United needed a draw to win the league and Blackburn needed a draw to stay up.

 

It was 1-1 after 70 minutes and the last 10-15 minutes was just Man United passing it around their own half completely unchallenged by Blackburn players 

Edited 7 May 2023 by Sampson

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Man United and Blackburn did it about 15 years ago. Man United needed a draw to win the league and Blackburn needed a draw to stay up.

 

It was 1-1 after 70 minutes and the last 10-15 minutes was just Man United passing it around their own half completely unchallenged by Blackburn players 

Something of another precedent there, then.

 

It does sound more and more like that if this situation did arise, WHU and Leicester could play out a draw and people might get annoyed about it, but there wouldn't be any "real" ramifications.

[HighPeakFox]

If the players know the situation, there's no need for it to be rigged anyway

[ARTY_FOX]

Both teams would just 'not take any risks and leave a boring 0-0 and it'd be the best game of the season imo.