How Many Points To Survive?

[jonny_wright]

2 hours ago, foxfanazer said:

Wolves accrued 2 points after 9 games, no way do they get that many 

Wolves have played essentially the top 10 in their first 10 games, they are better then they appear 

[00rawat]

 I think we will  became the new everton ,continuesly flirting with relegation, season in season out! Unless we get new people running the club.

 

Edited 2 November 2024 by 00rawat

[FoxOnWheels]

30 minutes ago, Noahfence said:

Have a look at Ipswich’s fixture between now and new year. That’s absolutely horrible 

Ours are worse id say

[coolhandfox]

25 minutes ago, jonny_wright said:

Wolves have played essentially the top 10 in their first 10 games, they are better then they appear 

People thought we were better then we seemed in 2022/23.

 

 

[st albans fox]

I reckon the team finishing 17th will have 37 points 

[Noahfence]

32 minutes ago, FoxOnWheels said:

Ours are worse id say

I genuinely haven’t even looked at ours haha. 

[FoxOnWheels]

36 minutes ago, Noahfence said:

I genuinely haven’t even looked at ours haha. 

You don’t want to mate it’s horrible

[Blueman1967]

Might need a few more than you think, l go 38.

[Les-TA-Jon]

On 02/11/2024 at 21:26, Noahfence said:

Have a look at Ipswich’s fixture between now and new year. That’s absolutely horrible 

 

On 02/11/2024 at 21:56, FoxOnWheels said:

Ours are worse id say

 

On 02/11/2024 at 22:29, Noahfence said:

I genuinely haven’t even looked at ours haha. 

 

On 02/11/2024 at 23:06, FoxOnWheels said:

You don’t want to mate it’s horrible

The next 10 for the bottom 6, FYI

 

 

Fixtures vs bottom 6, in the next 10 games:

 

Leicester - 1

Everton - 1 

Palace - 2 

Southampton - 2

Ipswich - 2

Wolves - 4

 

The next 10 looks 'worst' for us and Everton? Everton have that run from MD 13 to 18: Man Utd, Wolves, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

Bottom 6 with only 6 wins out of 60 matches so far...

[Gazza M]

38 points will do it in my opinion. Don't think Southampton and Ipswich will get 30 to be honest. 

[Filbert Fireworks]

Its hard to say isn't it. The inevitable January injury crisis makes or breaks the season for most clubs oustide the top 6 

[enmac]

We've got Wolves, Southampton and Ipswich in our last 5 games. 😳😒🤔

[sm1]

In the last 8 seasons 35pts has been enough. I can't see this season being an exception. We need 25pts more from 28 games, very doable.

[Les-TA-Jon]

This is the standings of 17th place teams over the last 29 seasons

 

 

We could go something like W7 D7 L14 over the remainder of the season and stay up

 

 

Edited 5 November 2024 by Les-TA-Jon

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Like someone said in another thread, it doesn't matter if 20th and 19th set record low tallies, if the bar for 18th is relatively high then it'll be a battle to the end. I can see Southampton and Ipswich on about 25 then a jump to the mid 30s

[Fox seen in Norwich]

On 02/11/2024 at 21:43, jonny_wright said:

Wolves have played essentially the top 10 in their first 10 games, they are better then they appear 

They just played palace and before that Brentford 🧐

[foxinsocks]

52 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

This is the standings of 17th place teams over the last 29 seasons

 

 

We could go something like W7 D7 L14 over the remainder of the season and stay up

 

 

but jon, I think last year forest could have stayed up with about 27 points.  As more points are grabbed by the top three or four then the lower the point of the bottom three,  I think you will stay up this year with 30 points for sure.

[sylofox]

On 02/11/2024 at 20:37, goose2010 said:

Wolves X2

Palace (h)

Southampton (h)

Ipswich (h)

West ham X2 

 

Win them pick up a couple of draws else where and we will be ok. 

As any true fox knows. More chance we beat Man c home and away than win all of them. In the ten games against them we will be lucky to beat them all once.

[AjcW]

Can't really understand why everyone has gone so high.

Collectively one of the worst starts to a season from a bottom 4/5 teams. Two teams haven't even registered a win yet. Quality across the league has been pretty poor too, even towards the top.

 

Last season 27 points would have been enough to survive.... TWENTY SEVEN.

 

How on earth are people getting to 38?  

[Torten]

38 minutes ago, AjcW said:

Can't really understand why everyone has gone so high.

Collectively one of the worst starts to a season from a bottom 4/5 teams. Two teams haven't even registered a win yet. Quality across the league has been pretty poor too, even towards the top.

 

Last season 27 points would have been enough to survive.... TWENTY SEVEN.

 

How on earth are people getting to 38?  

I think it's generally agreed that the bottom 3 last season may have been the worst in the PL era. This season, if we assume Southampton and Ipswich will make up the bottom 2, there is no real candidate for who will take up 18th place. Wolves look most likely at the minute but I can't see them being this rubbish for long. Same with Palace. Everton are the unflushable turd. Considering the finishes of Palace, Wolves and Everton last season, it's probably fair to say that should we finish 17th, the team in 18th will probably have many more than 27 points. I'd personally say 36 would be enough, not from any calculus, just vibes.

[FoxinNotts]

On 02/11/2024 at 19:05, Pita said:

I think 34 will be the survival point if we are lucky we will get 35 only just surviving 

I agree with this entirely. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

but jon, I think last year forest could have stayed up with about 27 points.  As more points are grabbed by the top three or four then the lower the point of the bottom three,  I think you will stay up this year with 30 points for sure.

Yes - I listed the 17th place finishes, not the 'points required to stay up'

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 hours ago, foxinsocks said:

but jon, I think last year forest could have stayed up with about 27 points.  As more points are grabbed by the top three or four then the lower the point of the bottom three,  I think you will stay up this year with 30 points for sure.

OK here we go 

 

 

Add "required to stay up" data. I.e 18th place finish +1 point (because it's way too complicated to try and account for GD).

 

Headline is:

• 17th place finish average = 37.8 points
• "Required to stay up" average = 35.8 points

[foxinsocks]

2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

OK here we go 

 

 

Add "required to stay up" data. I.e 18th place finish +1 point (because it's way too complicated to try and account for GD).

 

Headline is:

• 17th place finish average = 37.8 points
• "Required to stay up" average = 35.8 points

Last year... with arse and man city just 2 points apart... and competition for euro places then there were few poi t firvthosebin the bottom 3.  I think it will be similar this year.  While > 35 points is always a survival target .... it may be that 28 points will keep a team up this year.