Is relegation a price worth paying for avoiding a PSR breach?

[Pliskin]

Hasn’t harmed Forest. In the current climate if you can build a good enough squad to stay up, why not? 

[Ian S]

The question is , why does it have to be one or the other, sadly we already know the answer, we are the most incompetent club I can think of presently.They finally waved the white flag yesterday and admitted they are in such a s**t state there is no way out.Hopefully finally someone will be held accountable but very unlikely.

Had a season ticket for many years but can’t be bothered to go now, possibly for the rest of the season.

 

 

[The Fox Covert]

56 minutes ago, davieG said:

I think it's too late anyway, we messed it up in the summer transfer window. A couple of new players wasn't going to solve the weak mentality of the squad and ensure we survive. 

 

Relegation now looks inevitable so we need to ensure we have the right 'team' on board to clear the waste from the team and replenish the squad with strong willed, committed and skilled players. A mix of youth and experience and to rebuild.

 

But unless the club looks in the mirror at itself and realise they are the root cause of our demise, who else could it be? Certainly not PSR and act accordingly.

 

 

Has Van Nistelrooy even got a complete coaching team? I believe the entire first team set-up left after Cooper got the boot and if so Van Nistelrooy will have had to build a new coaching team from scratch.

[shiv]

19 minutes ago, CUJimmy said:

True but Chelsea, or anyone else, would know that we needed to sell quickly so we would end up accepting a lower price than we could have got by holding out longer.  

I think 99% of people on here would take a slightly lower fee for Mads if it meant giving us a better chance of staying in the PL. 

[AKCJ]

I think that staying up is worth the PSR charge because staying up means you can attract better players.

 

However, I would fully expect us to waste that money on yet more absolute rubbish.

 

Going down and hoping Top sells is the only way forward for the club.

[Pliskin]

I wouldn’t mind relegation if we learned from the likes of Bournemouth and Fulham, who both managed to put together good teams, that essentially eased their way out.

 

But, I don’t trust this board to get it right….. if Top doesn’t want to sell the club, he has to rebuild his boardroom, which he wont do. We will just continue to lurch from one disaster to another, without any consideration.

[The boy Linacre]

Its their repeated poor financial decision making that has got us into this mess, the club never came first OR they would have said no to some of these car crash transfers and wages.

Daka, Bertrand, Vesty TWICE , Faes, Kristensen, Edouard, Choudry multiple times, Skipp

Anyway, can somebody tell me, why did we actually sack Cooper?  Does anybody know the actual reason, the players obviously hated him (re Copenhagen) but in the interim period they have proved to be spineless, gutless, qualityless & useless.  Haven't seen Winks drag us to safety since, maybe he should say less and I'm a big fan.

 

AND because we'll go down, like Maddison & Barnes, they'll lose £5 to £10m on Mads, coz it'll be a fire sale, so I won't have been the best financial decision.

Ineptitude of the highest order, sleepwalking into laying waste to the club.

As fans we invest time, effort, money and most importantly enormous amounts of emotion into supporting our club, the highs bring us genuine pleasure, families connecting and sharing these moments.

These guys are paid or gain kudos from "success", the League and Cup were one offs BUT after 8 successive top flight seasons there is no entitlement to think if we got things relatively right that we couldn't continue to finish somewhere between 7th & 17th, that leaves room for manoeuvre.

 

THEY - nobody else have turned us from a comfortable PL team to a yo yo club.

I hoped they had learned when we were promoted but WHAT a disaster was the summer window AGAIN, along with the Vesty & Choudry contracts.

[FrankieADZ]

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

Well we didn’t breach for the year we were in the EFL and it’s far from clear whether the EFL will be able to go after us for the 2020-23 period. Presumably if the club believed an EFL-imposed deduction was inevitable in the event of relegation, it would have done everything it could to stay up? If a points deduction is heading our way no matter what, surely it would be far better to take it in the PL than the Championship?

 

Forget about the transfer embargo. There are no grounds for the EFL to impose one - zilch, zero, nada. It’s not happening. Some people have speculated that the EFL might try to go after us for 2020-23 (the period the PL tried but failed to punish us for), but - as stated above - it is not remotely clear that they will be able to.

 

What I’m getting at is that the club’s decision to prioritise avoiding a PSR breach over survival can only mean that it believes a points deduction will be avoided if we go down. Otherwise our lack of investment over the past month makes no sense whatsoever.

the EFL seem pretty confident we have broken their rules, it wouldnt shock me if we did and i think we probably did, and the club do everything to stay up?

nah they are too arrogant and cheap and think we will with the players we have

if the EFL think we have broken their rules when we was in the league last season and have enough proof theyll charge us, if you read between the lines when about what they said previous on it they are itching too

and a part of me honestly hopes we do, cos the clowns in charge of things need to learn a lesson

 

the club is a mess from top to bottom; idiots in charge

[ClaphamFox]

1 minute ago, FrankieADZ said:

the EFL seem pretty confident we have broken their rules, it wouldnt shock me if we did and i think we probably did, and the club do everything to stay up?

nah they are too arrogant and cheap and think we will with the players we have

if the EFL think we have broken their rules when we was in the league last season and have enough proof theyll charge us, if you read between the lines when about what they said previous on it they are itching too

and a part of me honestly hopes we do, cos the clowns in charge of things need to learn a lesson

 

the club is a mess from top to bottom; idiots in charge

I'm not aware of the EFL making a public comment on the 2020-23 PSR period (ie, the one we're still in arbitration with the PL over). Can you point to anything they've said on this? 

[jayfox26]

2 hours ago, phoneticerror said:

Both Top and Rudkin are arrogant enough to believe we can stay up. Again.

Can fully understand why they would think this after they watched us put in such a strong performance against Everton 

[UniFox21]

I'd rather we pumped money in, made a very good squad and then faced potential charges. Than going down with a whimper and without a fight  

[phoneticerror]

3 minutes ago, jayfox26 said:

Can fully understand why they would think this after they watched us put in such a strong performance against Everton 

Let’s not try and find rational thinking with this pair of morons 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

Why do we suffer more than other clubs ? People say we rolled the dice for top 4 - did we ?

 

Sold Maguire, Chilwell and Fofana and acquired players for similar amounts. 
 

Held back January 2020 and 2021. Held back summer 2022. Held back last Jan. Held back this Jan. 

 

Oh that’s right, we’ve paid significant sums of the clubs money to players “desperate” to move to the mighty Wolves. 
 

The decision making of this collective is so poor and limited that the default answer should always be the opposite of what they do. They couldnt run a bath. 

we rolled the dice in the stupidest way possible, on 80k wages for squad players. Every signing is a risk, the best clubs just take calculated ones. If you sign a new star midfielder and he gets crocked in a foul in his first game, that's shit luck. If you sign a new striker with a specific profile and good underlying data in a different country who then doesn't quite work out (This is exactly what we did with daka and why that signing wasn't a bad one, much as he's this forums bete noire), you took a calculated risk with odds in your favour and it didn't work, happens to every club (although you should always have a mitigation strategy, a way of recouping what you can). what's unacceptable is taking obviously bad risks without any concern and then doubling down on them, which is what we've done on big wages for failed prem players in the likes of Bertrand, Skipp, Ayew etc

[Qwerty]

Has it been officially stated that the reason we haven't spent money is fear of PSR breaches, or is that just our (logical) assumption?

Personally I can see the logic to it.  If we'd spent big in January it would have been a huge gamble.  Southampton are down, but us, Ipswich and Wolves are fighting over 2 PL places, and even if we'd bought a load of players there'd be no guarantee it would be enough.  It would have been disastrous to spend a load of money and still get relegated, then have to face more PSR sanctions.

I would rather get relegated and try and build up from a position of secure finances, rather than sailing close to the wind every year.  Being so close to PSR breaches causes anxiety in the dressing room, and puts off potential players and backroom staff.  After all, if we hadn't been facing a points deduction last summer we'd probably have been able to get a better manager.

We passed PSR for 23/24.  We need to pass for 24/25.  We still don't know what's happening about 22/23, and whether or not the EFL can still come for us when/if we're relegated.

But until we get back on an even keel financially, and stop this annual panic about PSR breaches, we can't ever truly progress.

Forest gambled last year and yes it's paid off massively for them, but that's only because there were 3 really rubbish teams in the PL (Burnley, Luton and Sheffield).  In a "normal" year both Forest and Everton would have ended up relegated.  

[jayfox26]

2 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

we rolled the dice in the stupidest way possible, on 80k wages for squad players. Every signing is a risk, the best clubs just take calculated ones. If you sign a new star midfielder and he gets crocked in a foul in his first game, that's shit luck. If you sign a new striker with a specific profile and good underlying data in a different country who then doesn't quite work out (This is exactly what we did with daka and why that signing wasn't a bad one, much as he's this forums bete noire), you took a calculated risk with odds in your favour and it didn't work, happens to every club (although you should always have a mitigation strategy, a way of recouping what you can). what's unacceptable is taking obviously bad risks without any concern and then doubling down on them, which is what we've done on big wages for failed prem players in the likes of Bertrand, Skipp, Ayew etc

I don't think we've had too many signings over the years from other prem teams that have been successful. In our current squad alone, Vestergaard, Winks, Skipp, Coady, Ayew, BDCR all signed from prem clubs and none have been particularly successful although Winks was good last season but has been dreadful this season. Not sure why we don't sign more players from the championship. We had success with Maddison and Justin initially before his injuries but now we just don't seem to take any risks with championship players. When we sign players from other prem teams, chances are they are already on big wages and will want similar or more.  Championship players are on much lower wages so is less of a gamble if they don't quite work out.

[jayfox26]

The only reason I would accept us not trying to sign anyone in Jan is because Top has no faith in the recruitment team and is planning on sacking them all including Rudkin but we all know this will never happen. 

[cityfanlee23]

55 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I thought parachute payments are only received if you don't go back up straight away. 

My understanding was that you receive 50% of your premier league broadcasting rights in the first year, then it drops year on year for a total of 3 years payments, payments stopped if you go straight back up. I could be completely wrong on this i'll have to do some googling on the subject!

[splinterdream]

If you breach, you carry the breach, so a points deduction for many years, if you're relegated with a breach you're really spannered. I think championship can force us to sell players 

[cityfanlee23]

46 minutes ago, Vlad the Fox said:

There’s no basis. We didn’t breach psr for the last three years including the year we were in the champ so they can’t touch us there. And the prem are in arbitration regarding the other case were we played by their own rules as written, they can’t take action while the prem are looking into it, if the prem drop the case the efl might try to take it up but it would be on very shaky ground and would be subject to another legal challenge from us I’d assume. If we go down I suspect nothing happens. 

 

48 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Sensible post. The hysteria over what the EFL will supposedly do to us when we go down has gotten way out of hand. The ONE thing that the club has been good at over the past few years is understanding and working around the PSR rules. In fact, our lawyers have proven that that understand the PL's rules better than the PL does. So it's very likely that the club has already looked at the situation re: the EFL and PSR and concluded that they won't be able to touch us. If the club believed the EFL WOULD be able to hit us hard over 2020-23 when we go down, surely it would have spent heavily over the past month to avoid relegation? It wouldn't make any sense to hold back on spending in that scenario.

 

Good question, Lee. The answer is that there are zero grounds for a transfer embargo and probably very few grounds for a points deduction. However there are some who find this hard to believe and insist on repeating the 'The EFL is gonna get us' line without ever bothering to explain how.

 

59 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

It's just largely paranoia. 

 

They can take action against us for the season we were there. A season in which we did almost everything in our power to reduce cost. 

 

We lost a bunch off the wage bill like Tielemans, Soyuncu and Amartey and had a lot of the remaining on wage reduction clauses. We sold Maddison, Barnes and KDH for just short of 100m collectively. 

 

We kept our spend relatively low and we benefited from parachute payments. 

 

We were also objectively good for the league, bringing in additional viewers and media attention. 

 

Other than the fact we had a light tangle with them for trying to get involved with our beef with the Prem, there's not really a great deal there. 

 

I hope we are right and not much happens, I genuinely still believe that should we go down, a competent coach could have us back in the top 6 with the squad we will have leftover. I'd expect key players like Ndidi, Ricardo Mads and Bilal will be off, but I still think we have plenty of talent in the squad to make a promotion push with Jakub, Fatawu, Justin, Mavididi, Winks, Skipp (Can't believe i'm saying that) Coady, Vestergaard, Okoli, Daka? with some younger players like Nelson and Alves hopefully ready after their loan spells, we have a solid foundation, it won't be easy, but I think we could be capable of mounting a challenge with a couple of cheap, key additions. 
Maybe I'm just trying to cope with the situation, but we could be in a position potentially in 2026 we are on somewhat of a stable financial footing. 

[Happy Fox]

The board have an overinflated ego, they think the team is better than our current league position well the stats and form suggests otherwise you incompetent charlatans.

 

You either back the manager or sack him, this dithering is not doing us any good in the short term / medium term and long term.

 

Relegation would be catastrophic.

[FrankieADZ]

33 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

I'm not aware of the EFL making a public comment on the 2020-23 PSR period (ie, the one we're still in arbitration with the PL over). Can you point to anything they've said on this? 

EFL released numerous statements, rumours in the press as well

this is one
EFL Statement: Leicester City - The English Football League

theyll want to make an example of us i think

[Jobyfox]

Could somebody who represents the 6% who still think we can survive let me know who their supplier is please?

 

Thanks 

[ClaphamFox]

Just now, FrankieADZ said:

EFL released numerous statements, rumours in the press as well

this is one
EFL Statement: Leicester City - The English Football League

theyll want to make an example of us i think

You're getting confused. That statement relates to the 2021-24 period. The EFL suspected we might breach for that period (and eventually imposed a temporary transfer embargo on us), but we know for a fact that we did not breach for that period as the PL confirmed it a few weeks ago. So there is zero possibility of the EFL punishing us for the period that ended June 2024.

[inckley fox]

1 hour ago, Finnegan said:

Nobody in here is qualified to answer that question, especially not while emotions are running high. You'd need actual access to our books and a professional level of understanding of the rules and the nuances of how they're implemented. Even the Kieran Maguires of this world are only making educated guesses until they see our returns. 

 

What I would say is that amortisation is a trap that leads to the death spiral we're currently in and too many of us, myself included, end up erroneously thinking "yeah it'll be fine to spend twenty million because we just sold Tom Cannon for a few million profit!" 

 

That's obviously not healthy and obviously not sustainable, especially when you're rushing to make bad choices and recruit sub optimal players in this constant papering over the cracks. 

 

I know I'm in the minority but I'm quietly relieved Woyo was our only nonsense panic buy of the window. It's bad enough we're stuck with Skipp for the next four years, clogging up our amortisation and wage bill. 

 

We'll be in a strong spending position in the summer. I think people, again including myself, have been a tiny bit melodramatic about what's waiting for us in the EFL. We're not definitely going to get shafted, we made a lot of money selling players in the last year. The EFL might be a bit mad at us but they only tried to embargo us because they wanted to know our plans and we said stay out of it it's nothing to do with you, haha. Not because we'd actually done anything wrong at that point. 

 

Yes, Rudkin will still be here, we won't really have learned that lesson. So we're going to be reliant on who the manager is. The good news is we'll be the big dogs again, we'll be in a stronger financial position than last relegation with a smaller wage bill and less PSR drama. So we'll be an attractive prospect for one of the best Championship level managers and we'll probably be able to pull off another round of Winks and Fatawus, getting in players too good for that level. 

 

Obviously limping to survival would be better, of course it would, but I think if we'd done it by shackling ourselves to more deadweight losers for the next three to five years, we'd have been setting ourselves up to stay in that cycle of doom for the next half decade, doing an Everton, permanently circling the drain. 

 

I'd rather not, personally. 

 

Doesn't mean I'm letting the ownership off the hook but it does mean I'm not wildly unhappy with not spending and I am just accepting we're going down and coming to terms with it. 

 

Some really good points.

 

When we went down, there were lots of voices of caution that year. Even from the off, some raised eyebrows at the sort of business we were doing - not necessarily the amounts spent, but certainly the sense that we were bringing in players who might have been on our wish list if we stayed up (e.g. Coady, and we'd also been linked to Winks in the past). And then there was the style of play, which Enzo insisted would never change and yet, it seemed, would have to be seriously tweaked at times at a higher level.

 

Enzo is a competent manager so he may well have adapted more than he was letting on, but I felt at the time that our dealings back then were designed to secure a quick return, and didn't seem to be bringing in the breadth of options to allow us to restructure long-term. I didn't see the plan for what happened when we actually got up with Faes and Vesty as CBs, or Vardy still up top.

 

When the winter came and talk of deductions, my thought was that any promotion would be followed by heavy restrictions on a squad that for the most part went down previously, and relegation was a near-certainty. Plenty on here felt that this was a necessary evil financially (I still don't entirely see why if we were staying compliant for that season, though they may have been right), but at that stage I'd have preferred us to avoid the throwaway top flight season. Others disagreed, of course, but it seemed the club had always been heading down that route.

 

They've made missteps, even with that being the grand plan: At least one managerial appointment, the Skipp and Okoli signings etc. But at this stage I'd prefer them not to prolong the cycle you speak of with further short-term fixes. I'd have liked to see one or two longer term ones, but there you go!

 

I don't think Forest's strategy was the way to go. They've ridden a great deal of luck and if PSR restrictions remain tough, I think we'll see other clubs try what they've done and get it badly wrong. At this stage it's best to get our house in order - including that reset in the boardroom and beyond - and then rebuild properly, from a more sound financial footing, and with longer-term outcomes at the forefront.

 

As for whether I have faith in that happening, well...

[Guest Basildon Fox]

13 minutes ago, FrankieADZ said:

EFL released numerous statements, rumours in the press as well

this is one
EFL Statement: Leicester City - The English Football League

theyll want to make an example of us i think

Posturing.  They have absolouteluy no idea what our financies are right now and couldn't hit us last time as we had not breached their rules.  Whether it was a technicality or not does not matter.