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dorsetboy

LUCK AND LEICESTER CITY

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Posted

We have played so well this season but the only luck we have had is other gems around dropping points. That's out of our control but we have win a lot of games and played some great football that's not lucky it's because were a very good side. Simple.

Posted

Don't tell me we weren't lucky at Leeds!!

Them not being able to put the ball in the back of the net is not down to luck it's poor finishing by them.

How many goals have we missed and other teams for that matter due to poor finishing or better goalkeeping? Its not luck.

Messi isn't lucky he just has the ability and composure to ensure he hits the target in the right place to score.

Posted

an aside question that I've been pondering lately. if you intend to do something, I.e, put a ball in the top corner from 40 yards, you manage it one time out of 100, is that time 'luck', as you intended to do it?

Posted

an aside question that I've been pondering lately. if you intend to do something, I.e, put a ball in the top corner from 40 yards, you manage it one time out of 100, is that time 'luck', as you intended to do it?

1 out of a 100, I'd say you should take up knitting.

Surely the more you consistently get out of a 100 the better you are at that particular task even then it doesn't make you a good footballer just good at that.

Posted

Eh?

It just means we're better than them if we consistently haven't dropped points & they have... Like Cardiff were better than us last season or Reading & Southampton the season before... We dropped points while they reasonably consistently never because we weren't as good as them, what's does luck have to do with it? (beyond the occasional instance, not over a season)

We have been lucky this season, not in the penalties which you win for playing fast football & running at defenders with pace, not in other teams not being as consistently good us... But in occasional instances like Morgan not being sent off so we could go on to get 1pt at Forest & probably rob them of 2pts, the Leeds game we were lucky, not in Nugent's fast feet for the goal, but we rode our luck at the back & could have been 3 down by the time we grabbed the winner.

Anyway, luck is something you earn by playing on the front foot, playing with skill & resolve, never giving up and going the extra mile. Luck is something down to the players who work so hard & the manager who's made that possible

You can't really say we could have been three down, if one of those chances goes in, the game changes and what followed is lost.
Posted

If you attack with pace and get players in the box defenders have a problem, hence the penalties.

We've also missed so many good chances due to poor finishing from Dyer, Vardy and Nugent. But without them we wouldn't have been able to attack teams so frequently, or win as many penalties mainly due to Vardys direct running with the ball.

So many seasons gone by where we have attacked with little ambition, cautious slow sides with little movement and no players in the box. Incredibly frustrating. If you play to win then you deserve success, and a little luck along the way (that's not the penalties, that's wins at Leeds, Bournemouth, tight games that could have gone either way).

Posted

None of those things are down to luck

Pens:

When you have lots of pace and run at poor championship defenders, you get penalties. Was the same for palace last season.

Late goals:

A well coached team, that never gives up. This is te sign of a good team, Utd under Ferguson did this forever.

Other teams losing:

That's just other teams not being able to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins. Simple and nothing I do with us having luck.

 

I half agree.

 

The thing with the penalties is there's been a few borderline decisions that would have gone against us in other seasons.

 

Other teams dropping points, as Walkers says, is out of our control so there is an element of luck there. Then again, us being top of the league is more to do with the lack of points we've dropped.

 

Totally agree about the late goals though, and the majority of the penalties which have been won through both clever and confident play.

Posted

The penalties we've had aren't down to luck as I agree with the above posts.

As for other teams dropping points..I prefer to think of it as fortunate for us..not lucky.

Posted

No one will win the league based on luck, the best team will accumulate the most points over 46 games. We may have some luck in some games, eg/ some penalties, but we may not be so lucky in other games eg/ forest home. United were not lucky to win so many trophies based on luck, their last minute goals are perceived to be luck, but when it happens consistently like it has done with them it's more than luck. Similarly, for us to win so many penalties it has to be more than luck

Posted

Does luck exist? yes, sometimes things fall into place nicely for you.

Is it a reason for continued success? no, hard work and preparation plus being good at what you do.

Mixing the two together guarantees success? no, nothing is guaranteed bar Franklins famous two :)

Posted

Make your own luck, you still have to be I the right place at the right time. It's the mental attitude that's changed this season, the players believe they can do it. A lot of credit has to go to the manager.

Posted

The only 'luck' we've had this season is that we're lucky to have kept NP, the rest of the coaching staff and the majority of our players. After the dismal end to last season I'd say they were lucky not to be fired/transferred, but they weren't and as a result we have one of the most tight-knit, well-disciplined and well-motivated sides we've had in a long long while, and we're performing at such a high level thanks to that.

 

 

Sure, we've had moments of luck throughout the season (take McCormack not scoring at Leeds), but most of it is minor things that at the end of the day haven't made enough difference to change the fact that we're top of the table by a considerable margin. Certainly our penalties haven't been luck, and the lack of injuries and suspensions this year is down to a well coached side playing a very professional style of football (meaning less nasty fouls, both conceded and given away) with a fantastic sports science team supporting them.

 

 

We fully deserve to be where we are on merit. 

Posted

We have been UNlucky. I can prove this.

 

In his excellent footy book, "the numbers game", Chris Anderson reckons that Luck  accounts for 50% of the outcome in an individual football match. The other 50% depends on the skills etc of the two teams involved. (Incidentally, this is why no one gets rich from gambling).

 

So. Since we're top we can assume that we are the best team in the division. This means that we can assume we will automatically win 50% of our points due to being better than all of our opposition. Of the other 50% of points, we'll win half, according to whether we are lucky or not on the day.

 

So, if luck were completely even we should have won 75% of our available points.

 

We've played 32 games, so 96 points have been available. We have won 71 points of these 96. This equates to 73.9%.

 

So. We have won 1.1% less points than we deserve. WE ARE UNLUCKY!!!!

 

Weirdly, if we had won one more point we would be bang on the 75% (72/96).

 

The bad luck was in the Charlton away game where the referee's influence in sending off Matty James  cost us the draw we deserved, and the single point that would have put us bang on the 75% mark - where we deserve to be.

 

Same old story. Luck is always against us :)

Posted

I don't think other teams have dropped enough points if I'm honest. We are so unlucky in this factor. We should be 20 points clear

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