Guest MattP Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Yes but mathematics hasn't changed in 13 those years! It's as likely to happen this season as it was 13 years ago Mathematics hasn't changed but the Premier League has. Bottom teams don't take as many off the top sides these days. More draws happen these days than they used to. West Brom are currently 17th with 18 points after 20 games. Looking at that it's unlikely you'll need 40 after 38 yet again this season.
Miquel The Work Geordie Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we're going down but we'll make a reasonable fist of it.
ADK Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we'll go down being honest. The points total required will be very important. It could be anything from 33-42 points with about 36-38 most likely. If it's high then we are in big trouble. We had 13 points at halfway, that leaves us needing 20-29 points from the second half of the season. Which means we will need to be close to top-half standard if we are to be safe. We lose our current two best players to AFCON for 5 matches now which includes 3 winnable home fixtures, two against relegation rivals. A lot will come down to where we are with 8 games to go, as all 8 of our last fixtures are winnable and our team will in theory be at it's best in terms of experience. If we can be in striking distance with 8 left we'll have a real chance.
Silverdaz Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 From Burnley 2nd half to the end of Villa away we looked like one of the worst teams to grace the Premiership in the last decade. Really in that period we must of been the most unlucky team in the world we played alright in the majority of these games but lady luck wasnt on our side
Fox Ulike Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Mathematics hasn't changed but the Premier League has. Bottom teams don't take as many off the top sides these days. More draws happen these days than they used to. West Brom are currently 17th with 18 points after 20 games. Looking at that it's unlikely you'll need 40 after 38 yet again this season. Interesting theory but I don't think it's correct for this season. What I’m saying though is that this season the bottom sides have picked up points against the top sides. Us against Liverpool and Man U. Burnley have drawn at Man City. WBA have won at Spurs Hull have drawn at Arsenal QPR have drawn at Man City. Palace have beaten Liverpool and away at Everton. This would indicate that a higher than average points total will be required for us to finish ahead of 3 other sides.
Babylon Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 We must be the best side to have ever been bottom of the Premier League for a prolonged amount of time. I really wish people would stop saying this, it's utter nonsense. We are where we are, every team going down probably has a load of what if's and hard luck stories. I think we have the capability to turn it around though.
Guest MattP Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Interesting theory but I don't think it's correct for this season. What I’m saying though is that this season the bottom sides have picked up points against the top sides. Us against Liverpool and Man U. Burnley have drawn at Man City. WBA have won at Spurs Hull have drawn at Arsenal QPR have drawn at Man City. Palace have beaten Liverpool and away at Everton. This would indicate that a higher than average points total will be required for us to finish ahead of 3 other sides. Surely the fact that 17th has only 18 points with more than half the games played means 35 points actually looks a pretty accurate and solid benchmark?
Katy Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I want to say yes so I'll say yes. Yes, we will stay up.
The Doctor Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Interesting theory but I don't think it's correct for this season. What I’m saying though is that this season the bottom sides have picked up points against the top sides. Us against Liverpool and Man U. Burnley have drawn at Man City. WBA have won at Spurs Hull have drawn at Arsenal QPR have drawn at Man City. Palace have beaten Liverpool and away at Everton. This would indicate that a higher than average points total will be required for us to finish ahead of 3 other sides. But every team has taken points off each other down here, so no-one has a particularly high tally or is looking like running off to 40 points.
Guest Bilo Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Mathematics hasn't changed but the Premier League has. Bottom teams don't take as many off the top sides these days. More draws happen these days than they used to. West Brom are currently 17th with 18 points after 20 games. Looking at that it's unlikely you'll need 40 after 38 yet again this season. Especially when you look at their last five or six fixtures, which are vile in comparison to ours,
Guest Bilo Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 The fact that we're only four points off safety after having stunk the place out for the thick end of three months shows that the points needed to stay up are likely to be low. There's an awful lot of dross in this division, and several teams that are one or two poor results away from a full blown slump. Will we go down? Difficult to say but we need results against Stoke and Villa to give us a good fist of it. Kramaric and Defoe, if he comes, are going to have deal with considerable pressure to get scoring.
Jobyfox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Sorry people, but I will be extremely surprised if we don’t get relegated. Imagine that you aren’t an LCFC supporter and look at this objectively from the view point of a supporter from any other club. You’d say that we are nailed on for relegation – which we are!
Dickov22 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 From Burnley 2nd half to the end of Villa away we looked like one of the worst teams to grace the Premiership in the last decade. And in the first five games and the games against Spurs and Liverpool we've looked far from a side that is the worst in the league. We will not finish bottom. No way
Dickov22 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I really wish people would stop saying this, it's utter nonsense. We are where we are, every team going down probably has a load of what if's and hard luck stories. I think we have the capability to turn it around though. I believe in the team and the manager. What's wrong with that? We will sign some much needed experience in the next few weeks, and get better.
bluesbrothers Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 The past three games have given me real hope. I'll admit that I thought we were dead and buried after that excruciating Boxing Day game but those four points from six have made survival very much acheivable if we play to the standard we know we can. With 18 games remaining, we'd need just 1.5 points per game to hit the almost certain safety mark of 40 points (41, in fact). The upcoming visit of Villa will be a vital one and a win would probably lift us off the bottom, but a point would not exactly be disastrous. If we want to play squeaky arses, 35 points would take just 1.1 points per game. If we drew every game from hereon in, we'd be left on 32, which I doubt would be enough even if other teams have similarly dismal returns. So this is what we'd need:40 points (almost certain safety) - 26 points. 6 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses OR 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses (and so on).37 points (probable safety) - 23 points. 5 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses OR 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses OR 7 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses (and so on). 35 points (possible safety) - 21 points. 4 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses OR 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses OR 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses OR 7 wins, 11 losses. In reality, I don't believe we can afford to lose any more than 6 games between now and the end of the season and still be sure of safety. We need to be looking to win a minimum of five games, but six is the ideal minimum and will give us a fighting chance. It's going to be tough, but is still well within reach, especially if we take our recent defensive form (two clean sheets, which may have been 3 but for two dubious penalties in the past 3 games) and maintain it!
CPW22 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Sorry am I missing something here....I'm all for being positive and my heart says we can stay up but my head and tgr facts remain this is highly unlikely. Sure we may have a sniff at safety but ultimately the odds are stacked against us. 75% of you are dreaming...which is lovely but sometime soon you'll have to wake up. Do you think Sunderland fans were saying the same at this point last season? Or even with 6 games to go? They didn't wake up, they stayed up.
Channy'sboots Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Heart says 'survival' Head is saying us, QPR and Hull. Summer spent haggling cost us dearly but honestly believe with a bit of experience brought in at this point we can wriggle out of this.
Livid Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Going to be very close but I just think we're going to fall short. Have a feeling this will be one of those seasons where you really will need 39/40 points and that will be our undoing.
Leeds Fox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Does anyone else have a feeling of excitement, which hasn't been around since the start of the season. It almost feels similar to have been languishing in mid-table of the Championship, and we've just all of a sudden made it into a position where we're flirting with the automatic promotion spots. Added to all of the transfer speculation, it really is going to be a nail biting second half of the season. Not that we were looking forward to a year of only having a slim chance of survival, but after 3 months of absolute garbage, to be wishing touching distance of safety feels pretty good.
Aixelsyd Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I can't get my head around doing the maths for 40 or 38 or 34 points to survive.... It is simple "Do not give any points to the eight or so other teams at the bottom of the table".. Beating a top four is a great moment.... but means little if we lose to a relegation rival in terms of meaningful point on the table.
Eastwellfox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we have left ourselves too much to do. The way the bottom half is shaping up I think that teams will need a lot of points to avoid relegation. Too many teams are picking up points at the bottom. So we will maybe need 39 or 40 to survive. That's 25 or 26 more points. For us, that means 7 or 8 wins, plus 3 or 4 draws, from 18 games. That means we can only afford to lose around SIX more games from the remaining 18. We've got Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Spurs AWAY still to play. We've left ourselves too much to do. I predict an improvement in the second half or the season, but the biazarre and niave formations in home games against Burnley, WBA and Sunderland will cost us our place in the premiership. I'm sorry. you hsve hit the nail on the head.
Dan Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 If it's any consolation with Leicester, we've played most of the top sides at home. It's generally the weaker sides who have to come here. Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Hull, QPR, then sides like Stoke (decent but have a habit of losing to the bottom sides), Swansea (I rate them but they aren't unbeatable and in-particular if they lose Bony), Newcastle (frauds, shite side) to come here too. West Ham have gone off a bit recently too. The obvious concern here mind you is we've actually won just the one game at home, which is utterly dreadful really. You know it's a bloody shame Newcastle had their winning run. That's probably going to keep them up.
HEGGSY Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we'll stay up. With a win at home to QPR on the last day
ScouseFox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 i will pitch invade and literally piss in harry redknapps face if we stay up by beating them to send them down.
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