ScouseFox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 can get about 5/4 on us staying up for those who are confident. and presumably if you think we'll stay up you think we'll finish above qpr and burnley, and you can get 5/2 on us being the top promoted team. just if you're interested. i think, like i said in the villa thread, if we win on saturday we will stay up. if we lose it's one hell of an ask. huge game.
Foxey id Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I believe we are better than Palace,Burnley and Qpr,so I think we will ok,just. Why do you believe that, not been better than those teams so far.
Fox Ulike Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we have left ourselves too much to do. The way the bottom half is shaping up I think that teams will need a lot of points to avoid relegation. Too many teams are picking up points at the bottom. So we will maybe need 39 or 40 to survive. That's 25 or 26 more points. For us, that means 7 or 8 wins, plus 3 or 4 draws, from 18 games. That means we can only afford to lose around SIX more games from the remaining 18. We've got Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Spurs AWAY still to play. We've left ourselves too much to do. I predict an improvement in the second half or the season, but the biazarre and niave formations in home games against Burnley, WBA and Sunderland will cost us our place in the premiership. I'm sorry.
bovril Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 We must be the best side to have ever been bottom of the Premier League for a prolonged amount of time. Survival. From Burnley 2nd half to the end of Villa away we looked like one of the worst teams to grace the Premiership in the last decade.
MHC Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 If we sign Lennon, Defoe, Kramaric and a defender or two then no I don't think we will.
Guest MattP Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Survival. It finally seems to have hit quite a few of our players that they do belong at this level, the luck we have had has been horrendous and we are still in it. As long as we are within 5 of safety at the start of April with our run in I think we stay up.
Aus Fox Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we have left ourselves too much to do. The way the bottom half is shaping up I think that teams will need a lot of points to avoid relegation. Too many teams are picking up points at the bottom. So we will maybe need 39 or 40 to survive. That's 25 or 26 more points. For us, that means 7 or 8 wins, plus 3 or 4 draws, from 18 games. That means we can only afford to lose around SIX more games from the remaining 18. We've got Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Spurs AWAY still to play. We've left ourselves too much to do. I predict an improvement in the second half or the season, but the biazarre and niave formations in home games against Burnley, WBA and Sunderland will cost us our place in the premiership. I'm sorry. Why we actually need is 3 points more than Burnley/Crystal Palace and either 4 more than WBA or 5 more than Hull/QPR. Over 18 games I can see us getting more points than those around us. It will be close and may come down to the last day. The next 3 will be huge! If we can beat Villa and Palace and draw with Stoke. I think we will survive.
HK18 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Trying to not get carried away by our recent form this time. I think we're probably going to just fall short, but I wouldn't rule us out of staying up for one second, especially if we actually land Kramaric. We are only another win away from you proclaiming you to be challenging for Europe.
Tom's Pasta Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I reluctantly put relegated, but I think we'll finish 18th. Too little too late
Guest Col city fan Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I have literally no idea! Not being obtuse, I really can see it go one way or the other. My heart says 17th, my head says West Brom, us and Burnley will go.
LCCFox96 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 The one thing that gives me confidence is we've yet to take a real pummelling scoreline wise. Yes the likes Southampton, Swansea and West Ham had us well beaten but could only break us down twice (often with help from some of our defenders) but you look at the points we've dropped any many could have gone either way. On another day we might have got the break at home to WBA (I believe we would have won that but for Cambiasso's unlucky OG), taken a chance vs Sunderland, come out on top of the dog fight at QPR and it could be different story altogether if our wall and goalkeeping positioning was sufficient against Burnley and Spurs. I know its all ifs, buts and maybes but we have genuinely been unlucky not to have registered more points and have been competitive. 2nd half if we're solid at home (we've played most of the big teams at home) and actually win some KP games then we might be fine. Any points on the road are good points in the premiership. Survival is not beyond us.
MC Prussian Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Who knows? It can go either way at the moment. I do hope we'll prevail and secure another season in the top-flight, but it wouldn't spell disaster to me if we were to be relegated again. It wouldn't be a premiere for this club, anyway.
Guest ttfn Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 We look good enough to stay up - that run of 2 points in 13 games was baffling, we played well enough in there to come out with 5 times as many points. I reckon we'll do it. And we still played well below our best for the majority of it. I think we'll have a good idea about whether we'll stay up after the Palace game. Any fewer than 5 points from the next 4 games and I think it's curtains.
Kitchandro Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think the Villa game might make my mind up. We haven't played well against a shit side all season, and that has to change.
Guest ttfn Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 I think we have left ourselves too much to do. The way the bottom half is shaping up I think that teams will need a lot of points to avoid relegation. Too many teams are picking up points at the bottom. So we will maybe need 39 or 40 to survive. That's 25 or 26 more points. For us, that means 7 or 8 wins, plus 3 or 4 draws, from 18 games. That means we can only afford to lose around SIX more games from the remaining 18. We've got Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Spurs AWAY still to play. We've left ourselves too much to do. I predict an improvement in the second half or the season, but the biazarre and niave formations in home games against Burnley, WBA and Sunderland will cost us our place in the premiership. I'm sorry. Absolutely no way will 40 points be needed. I think QPR are in huge trouble - they've been great at home but they play virtually the entire top half at home in the second half of the season. I really can't see them getting more than another 10 points at home this season from Man United, Saints, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea, West Ham and Newcastle. So in order for them to hit 40 points they'd need at least 11 away from home. Given that so far they have 0 that seems a bit of a stretch. Can see them struggling to hit 35 tbh.
tickler28 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Sorry am I missing something here....I'm all for being positive and my heart says we can stay up but my head and tgr facts remain this is highly unlikely. Sure we may have a sniff at safety but ultimately the odds are stacked against us. 75% of you are dreaming...which is lovely but sometime soon you'll have to wake up.
Fox Ulike Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Absolutely no way will 40 points be needed. I think QPR are in huge trouble - they've been great at home but they play virtually the entire top half at home in the second half of the season. I really can't see them getting more than another 10 points at home this season from Man United, Saints, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea, West Ham and Newcastle. So in order for them to hit 40 points they'd need at least 11 away from home. Given that so far they have 0 that seems a bit of a stretch. Can see them struggling to hit 35 tbh. Well since 40 points has been needed at least six times in Premiershp history I’ve no idea why you would think that it ‘absolutely’ won’t happen this time around! So you’ve relegated QPR which is great, but there’s still two spots to fill. If not us, who else is going down?
Guest MattP Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Well since 40 points has been needed at least six times in Premiershp history I’ve no idea why you would think that it ‘absolutely’ won’t happen this time around! So you’ve relegated QPR which is great, but there’s still two spots to fill. If not us, who else is going down? Do you not see the flaw in your own graph? 40 points hasn't been needed for 13 years.
Fox92 Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Sorry am I missing something here....I'm all for being positive and my heart says we can stay up but my head and tgr facts remain this is highly unlikely. Sure we may have a sniff at safety but ultimately the odds are stacked against us. 75% of you are dreaming...which is lovely but sometime soon you'll have to wake up. How are they? We're four point off of 17th position with two winnable home games coming up. We can turn this around, just as much as we can lose form again. The last few performances have been good. We should have taken something against Spurs and we should have won at Anfield. I honestly have faith and belief we will stay up.
The Doctor Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Well since 40 points has been needed at least six times in Premiershp history I’ve no idea why you would think that it ‘absolutely’ won’t happen this time around! So you’ve relegated QPR which is great, but there’s still two spots to fill. If not us, who else is going down? Those stats are wrong - they're what 17th place finished with, but if 17th place finished with 44, and 18th with 33, you don't need 44 points to stay up, you need 34. Since the reduction to 20 teams in 1995, the amount of points you'd need to finish 1 point clear of 18th have been: 39 41 41 37 34 35 37 43 34 34 35 38 37 35 31 40 37 37 34 Only 4 times in 20 years have you needed 40 or more points, and the average needed is 34.95. So on average 35 points is enough, only 4 teams needed to get over 40 to survive.
Fox Ulike Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Do you not see the flaw in your own graph? 40 points hasn't been needed for 13 years. Yes but mathematics hasn't changed in 13 those years! It's as likely to happen this season as it was 13 years ago. Those stats are wrong - they're what 17th place finished with, but if 17th place finished with 44, and 18th with 33, you don't need 44 points to stay up, you need 34. Since the reduction to 20 teams in 1995, the amount of points you'd need to finish 1 point clear of 18th have been: 39 41 41 37 34 35 37 43 34 34 35 38 37 35 31 40 37 37 34 Only 4 times in 20 years have you needed 40 or more points, and the average needed is 34.95. So on average 35 points is enough, only 4 teams needed to get over 40 to survive. OK try this one: Three times 40 points or more has seen teams relegated in the last 20 years. So that means it has happened 15% of the time. Hardly a freak occurance that "absolutely" won't happen.
The Doctor Posted 6 January 2015 Posted 6 January 2015 Yes but mathematics hasn't changed in 13 those years! It's as likely to happen this season as it was 13 years ago. OK try this one: Three times 40 points or more has seen teams relegated in the last 20 years. So that means it has happened 15% of the time. Hardly a freak occurance that "absolutely" won't happen. Two of which were 19 and 20 years ago. Only once in the past 15 years has 40 points not been enough. Even still, 35 points is normally enough to ensure survival - there are some where you'll still get relegated with that, some where you can survive with less. The facts still stand - usually you don't need to hit 40 points to survive. We could possibly have a season where 40 points is necessary, but that's an anomaly more than the norm.
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