The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Guest MattP]

His face when the video rolled of Cameron telling the CBI we'd be fine outside the EU was tremendous television.

[Bobby Hundreds]

Can't wait until we leave the EU and then build a hospital per week. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

His face when the video rolled of Cameron telling the CBI we'd be fine outside the EU was tremendous television.

Indeed, it's been poor long term strategy by them two, because they've been actively stoking up the arguments for leaving long before and then positioned themselves on the remain side with a bland, passionless argument. Maybe when they planned all this they figured they would have a strong Labour voice alongside - and as overjoyed they may have been when Corbyn got the job, I bet they are wishing anyone else had got it now.

The other thing worth considering - this vote is monumental for the state of the two big political parties - a vote leave and a reasonably stable future would give the Tories domination of the landscape for the foreseeable future surely (and god knows what happens to Labour), but conversely if we come out and it goes shit fingers will be pointing at them and the party could suffer big time.

Equally, if we stay and it goes badly the fingers get pointed at the Tories (I haven't a clue who benefits out of that) - but if we stay and things go alright then I guess that probably means George ends up as PM?

When you think of potentially the worst things to happen in a country, to have a vote that is going to split a population almost 50/50 and potentially have difficult splits between its component parts too, that is one of them. If this was the Middle Ages, a civil war would have broken out by now.

[Guest MattP]

Absolute horror show from Osborne.

 

What the **** is he talking about when he constantly says that we'll 'lose control of our economy' if we left the EU 

 

It was pure desperation, has any chancellor in history tried to claim that they'll only be in control if decisions are given away? You wonder how the other 180 countries outside the EU manage

 

Osborne knows he is totally failing at his job, he needs to stay in this to give him the comfort blanket, I really hope we don't give it to him.

 

Indeed, it's been poor long term strategy by them two, because they've been actively stoking up the arguments for leaving long before and then positioned themselves on the remain side with a bland, passionless argument. Maybe when they planned all this they figured they would have a strong Labour voice alongside - and as overjoyed they may have been when Corbyn got the job, I bet they are wishing anyone else had got it now.

The other thing worth considering - this vote is monumental for the state of the two big political parties - a vote leave and a reasonably stable future would give the Tories domination of the landscape for the foreseeable future surely (and god knows what happens to Labour), but conversely if we come out and it goes shit fingers will be pointing at them and the party could suffer big time.

Equally, if we stay and it goes badly the fingers get pointed at the Tories (I haven't a clue who benefits out of that) - but if we stay and things go alright then I guess that probably means George ends up as PM?

When you think of potentially the worst things to happen in a country, to have a vote that is going to split a population almost 50/50 and potentially have difficult splits between its component parts too, that is one of them. If this was the Middle Ages, a civil war would have broken out by now.

 

No one knows what will happen to the parties happen, a close remain vote and I hope the Tiries can oust Cameron but in reality he's gone by 2020 anyway, it just makes sure Gideon doesn't get elected by his own party, no one really believes Boris wants to leave the EU and Michael Gove is the genuine Eurosceptic, my money is on him for the next Tory leader.

 

What happens to Labour I don't know, they've decided to become a protest group rather than a serious political party and they have to face the consequences of that, half of their own voters don't even know which side they are on in this which probably sums up a lot of the people who vote for this party purely on tribal reasons. A chimp could have a red rossette in most cities and people would vote for it.

 

The only party I can say with any certainty who will benefit from remain vote is UKIP.

[leicsmac]

Gove being the next Tory leader and Corbyn continuing to be Labour leader would result in an ideological divide between the major parties only seen before in the US.

 

Where's the fvcking centre ground?

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Less speculation, more the obvious conclusion to all of Brexits points so far. Unless of course in addition to constantly lying about statistics (like the £350m per week) they're lying about their plans for life after the EU? In which case there's very little reason to back them when they've not got a bloody clue what to do.

You are bullshitting yet again. All your fake arguments are based illogical nonsense, or if you prefer, pure supposition, backed up with unadulterated tosh!

 

You need to do some homework, prior to attempting to put a valid argument forward. You are merely stereotyping the lies put forward by the Cameron and his misguided blinkered cronies.

 

I recommend you read some relevant reports from H.M.S.O.

[Guest MattP]

The centre ground is being totally abandoned, maybe we've had peace, democracy and freedom of speech in Britain for so long we've become complacent about it?

I was wondering this when I watched the "yoof" debate on the BBC, 90 minutes and not a single question about democracy or sovereignty, only conclusion I could draw was that they take it with such complacency as we're now a few generations away from having fought so hard for it.

I also wish Tony Benn was alive today, he would never have sold out in his principles so easily.

[Rincewind]

http://www.labourleave.org/

[Dodgy Bob]

Gove won't win an election. His views on the EU aren't hardly being challenged but if he's as woolly and inconsistent in the run up to a general election he'd get ripped apart. Boris too, but he has the advantage of acres more popular appeal.

We're heading for Boris v Corbyn v Farage, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Britain being able to succeed and prosper when left to its own devices. I'd expect the Lib Dems to try and capture the middle ground, but they'll probably still be too toxic for the majority to consider.

[leicsmac]

The centre ground is being totally abandoned, maybe we've had peace, democracy and freedom of speech in Britain for so long we've become complacent about it?

I was wondering this when I watched the "yoof" debate on the BBC, 90 minutes and not a single question about democracy or sovereignty, only conclusion I could draw was that they take it with such complacency as we're now a few generations away from having fought so hard for it.

I also wish Tony Benn was alive today, he would never have sold out in his principles so easily.

 

There's something in that. People are taking such things for granted too much and complacency can result. It's worrying.

[The Railway Man]

Gove won't win an election. His views on the EU aren't hardly being challenged but if he's as woolly and inconsistent in the run up to a general election he'd get ripped apart. Boris too, but he has the advantage of acres more popular appeal.

We're heading for Boris v Corbyn v Farage, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Britain being able to succeed and prosper when left to its own devices. I'd expect the Lib Dems to try and capture the middle ground, but they'll probably still be too toxic for the majority to consider.

 

Ian Duncan Smith could win the next election if Corbyn is till in charge if Labour

[leicsmac]

Ian Duncan Smith could win the next election if Corbyn is till in charge if Labour

 

He'd win it but turnout would probably be around 40% if it was Gove v Corbyn next time round.

[Guest MattP]

Send our kids across the continent to work? They already have youth unemployment at over 20% in France, 35% in Spain, 35% in Italy and over 50% in Greece.How much more misery do the richer nations of the EU want to inflict on the poorer ones?

 

We should be ashamed of ourselves, the people behind this are killing the young people of Europe and they need to stop before we start to get some very unpleasant governments being elected.

 

It's a classic example of how ideology is so dangerous in politics, when people get an idea into their heads they are obsessed with they will stop at nothing to see it finished whatever the outcome.

 

They KNEW the Eurozone would do this to the Southern nations of Europe yet they still went through with it because of the ideology of an eventual European superstate, it didn't matter how much poverty and misery it enforced on the people, the project and ideology was more important.

 

Like the "refugees welcome" crowd, to them the obsession is taking as many as possible, it doesn't matter if we have 9, 900 or 9 million rapes, it doesn't matter if we don't have the housing, it doesn't matter if public services collapse, they have taken a position and they are going to try and enforce it on everyone no matter what the result is so they can bask in the glow of how virtous they are,

 

The closest example we've ever had in Britain was John Major and the ERM, they knew it would cost thousands of jobs, they knew housands of people would lose their homes yet they still carried on with it because in their own minds they had committed to it and had to stay in, the culmination was black Wednesday and one day Europe will have that as well, all thanks to ideology.

 

He'd win it but turnout would probably be around 40% if it was Gove v Corbyn next time round.

 

Behave, that would be a great election, for the first time in years a proper choice rather than what we have now, I'd take a bet now that would see a 70% turnout.

 

In fact the only man in the World who can unite the Conservative party after in EU referendum is Jeremy Corbyn.

[StanSP]

Personally I'd like us to leave, it'd be interesting to see what would happen. 

 

Maybe we could implement like a buy-back clause if we **** it up. 

 

you'd take a massive gamble in leaving the EU just to 'see what would happen' . Crazy.

[leicsmac]

 

 

Behave, that would be a great election, for the first time in years a proper choice rather than what we have now, I'd take a bet now that would see a 70% turnout.

 

In fact the only man in the World who can unite the Conservative party after in EU referendum is Jeremy Corbyn.

 

It'd be fantastic in that it would be great to watch, in a pure car crash anathema TV way. 

 

Honestly I don't think polarised politics is good for anyone. 

[Dodgy Bob]

Ian Duncan Smith could win the next election if Corbyn is till in charge if Labour

I wouldn't bet on it. The tories only got a narrow majority last time. If we stay in the EU they'll lose a lot of those who would vote for Gove to UKIP, and they'd lose a lot of those who prefer a more centrist conservative party to protest votes/spoiled ballots/low turnout. Guaranteed UKIP led coalition at best.

[Great Boos Up]

The centre ground is being totally abandoned, maybe we've had peace, democracy and freedom of speech in Britain for so long we've become complacent about it?

I was wondering this when I watched the "yoof" debate on the BBC, 90 minutes and not a single question about democracy or sovereignty, only conclusion I could draw was that they take it with such complacency as we're now a few generations away from having fought so hard for it.

I also wish Tony Benn was alive today, he would never have sold out in his principles so easily.

We don't have freedom of speech, that's America.

[Alf Bentley]

Reality Check No. 1: Brexit could mean an extra £350m per week for the NHS? (Leave claim)

 

Largely bollocks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36040060

 

The £350m figure doesn't allow for the UK rebate. It also doesn't allow for money that comes back to the UK for farmers, for regional development, for scientific research etc.

 

As one of the richer countries, the UK does pay more in than it gets back: the BBC puts it at up to £161m. In theory, it could take all the EU cash away from farmers, researchers & regional development, and give it to the NHS. But that would cause major problems to those who'd lost the funds - and it still wouldn't amount to £350m

 

Remain people would also claim that the UK also benefits from some of the cash redistributed to other countries, as they develop and buy more goods & services from us. There's also the likelihood that Brexit WOULD damage UK in the short-term, due to uncertainty undermining investment during the 2-3 years of renegotiation. Highly unlikely there'd be any dividend for the NHS or public funds generally....which, in isolation, isn't a case for/against Brexit. Brexit might be much better or much worse in the long-term for a host of reasons - and any government can decide to increase NHS funding at any time.

 

Reality Check No. 2: Brexit would require the return of border controls on the N. Ireland land border to prevent mass immigration? (Remain claim)

 

Partly true, partly bollocks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36462023

 

- Largely bollocks re. migrant flows from outside the EU as, like the UK, Ireland is outside Schengen so has its own border controls for non-EU citizens (though maybe some could legitimately gain entry to Ireland, then cross the border?)

- True re. EU migrants, if Ireland stays in the single market: EU workers would still be able to come freely to the Republic of Ireland, so we'd need border controls if we wanted to control EU immigration.

 

Some major risks in that: e.g. British border posts would be an obvious target for dissident Republicans & might encourage support for them; would we effectively be re-militarising N. Ireland?

 

There would also be potential issues over cross-border tariffs, both within the island of Ireland and across the Irish Sea. Would the Republic of Ireland have to levy EU tariffs on UK imports? Would it have to pay tariffs on Irish exports to the UK? If the EU levied tariffs on UK goods, surely the UK would do the same - and the EU presumably wouldn't allow Ireland to cut a special tariff-free deal with the UK?

 

This is all assuming that the Brexit camp want us to leave the EU single market and not gain access to that market by other means, like Norway or Switzerland, as they have to accept the free movement of labour in return.

 

Reality Check No. 3: After Brexit, we might need visas to travel to EU countries (Remain claim)

 

- Almost certainly bollocks:    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_the_Schengen_Area#Visa_exemptions

 

So, even Americans and Australians can visit the EU for up to 90 days without a visa. Likewise, even non-EU & non-EEA nationals like Serbs and Albanians do not need a visa. In this context, and given the importance of British tourism to many EU countries, it's surely bollocks to suggest that the EU would insist on visas if we left?

 

 

Shame that we can't have an honest debate about such a massively important issue, isn't it? Shame that BOTH sides are filling the media with lies, exaggerations and misrepresentation!

 

Lucky we have the Internet, but how many people are going to bother researching the facts? It's like a contest to see which side can most successfully mislead the public.

[Guest MattP]

The 350 million figure is absolutely absurd, I'm astonished that bus is still travelling around with it on.

[Alf Bentley]

The centre ground is being totally abandoned, maybe we've had peace, democracy and freedom of speech in Britain for so long we've become complacent about it?

I was wondering this when I watched the "yoof" debate on the BBC, 90 minutes and not a single question about democracy or sovereignty, only conclusion I could draw was that they take it with such complacency as we're now a few generations away from having fought so hard for it.

I also wish Tony Benn was alive today, he would never have sold out in his principles so easily.

 

 

Completely agree - particularly with the last statement.

 

The half-hearted approach of Corbyn and most of the Labour front bench is utterly shameful.

 

Some might suggest that the media is focusing too much on Cameron, Boris, Nigel & co because of the divisions on the Right. There might be a tiny bit of truth in that, but it's mainly a cop-out. I read the other day that Corbyn isn't even in the Top 10 of politicians who have appeared most on TV re. the referendum. If he'd wanted to have a higher profile, he could have had it - indeed, he could and should have demanded it, and protested to the broadcasters if he wasn't getting it. He's the leader of the Opposition and of the UK's second biggest party.

 

Leading Labour politicians, particularly Corbyn, should have had a high profile, WHICHEVER side they chose to take - and I see no problem with different Labour politicians being on different sides, arguing a Left case for Brexit or Bremain. Instead, what have we had? A couple of speeches, maybe a bit more action from Harman & Alan Johnson for Remain, Hoey & Gisela sitting in the background on the Leave bus.... Mind you, the Lib Dems, SNP & Greens haven't been any better.

 

If the vote is tight and is swung by Labour voters left uninformed by "their" party - a distinct possibility - history will judge Corbyn & co very badly.

 

On a point you made before, Matt: I agree that there is no excuse for anyone - provided they have Internet access - not knowing the arguments. However, it's a disgrace that they have been so poorly served by ALL their politicians - Tories & Kippers on both sides running up and down the country telling lies, while Corbyn and mates seem to be dozing on a beach somewhere.  

 

I'm still 50-50 myself, but I'll make a decision by 23rd June. It will probably mainly come down to whether or not I think that the EU/Eurozone is reformable. If so, it'll probably be Remain; if not, Leave will seem the better option. Can't say that I'll have much confidence that I'm voting the right way, whichever way I go.

[Alf Bentley]

Behave, that would be a great election, for the first time in years a proper choice rather than what we have now, I'd take a bet now that would see a 70% turnout.

 

In fact the only man in the World who can unite the Conservative party after in EU referendum is Jeremy Corbyn.

 

 

It certainly won't be boring after the vote.

 

If there's either a Leave vote or a narrow Remain vote, there'll surely be a Tory civil war and Cameron will jump or be pushed. But will a Eurosceptic leader like Boris or Gove have the votes to govern? They have a tiny minority. Are people like Ken Clarke going to obey the whips? It wouldn't take many rebels to bring the whole thing crashing down, triggering an early election. God knows what happens then?

 

Here's a scenario for you: UK votes Brexit, Call Me Dave walks the plank, Boris takes over but is unable to govern his party and meets a hard-line response from Brussels. Meanwhile, uncertainty causes an economic downturn. An early election is held later this year, against a backdrop of political and economic crisis. The public turn against the Govt and Tory voters switch to UKIP or Lib Dems or stay at home. Labour win an absolute majority. By Xmas, Corbyn could be in No. 10 overseeing British withdrawal from the EU!  

[bovril]

We don't have freedom of speech, that's America.

 

Unfortunately I've never been to the States but it's always seemed to me that we have much more freedom of speech here. After 9/11 particularly I remember many Americans falling out of favour for having slightly different views from the mainstream.

[Buce]

It certainly won't be boring after the vote.

If there's either a Leave vote or a narrow Remain vote, there'll surely be a Tory civil war and Cameron will jump or be pushed. But will a Eurosceptic leader like Boris or Gove have the votes to govern? They have a tiny minority. Are people like Ken Clarke going to obey the whips? It wouldn't take many rebels to bring the whole thing crashing down, triggering an early election. God knows what happens then?

Here's a scenario for you: UK votes Brexit, Call Me Dave walks the plank, Boris takes over but is unable to govern his party and meets a hard-line response from Brussels. Meanwhile, uncertainty causes an economic downturn. An early election is held later this year, against a backdrop of political and economic crisis. The public turn against the Govt and Tory voters switch to UKIP or Lib Dems or stay at home. Labour win an absolute majority. By Xmas, Corbyn could be in No. 10 overseeing British withdrawal from the EU!

That scenario is something that might push me to vote Brexit.

[bovril]

That scenario is something that might push me to vote Brexit.

 

I think it's better to weigh up the pros and cons and vote for what you think is better for Britain and Europe, not try to tactically vote to bring about hypothetical scenarios. Imho....

[johnny the fox]

After the end of the second world war,Germany was rubble and divided..in just over 70 years they have come to be the most dominant nation in Europe and the richest. They reunited with a bankrupt east Germany and just carried onward and upward... this is a damning indictment of our countries leadership in those years ...And now OUR wonderful leaders and betters want us to do as they say because THEY know better...I for one have had enough these second raters.....the whole political class has failed our great nation, their track record proves it...Its time for the people to take back control,  yes we could fail ...yes we could succeed ..but at least we will OWN the outcome We can be the masters of our own destiny !  I'm up for the challenge...I'm for OUT!