North Korea

[Finnegan]

To add to that, the idea of Kim being unhinged is one they'll probably gladly see promoted as it makes them appear more dangerous. We don't really know all that much about him, we get whatever news out of NK that they want to come out and a lot if it gets debunked as SK propaganda. 

 

It's like Putin. Putin loves the international image of him as some crazed bear fighting, shirtless, war obsessed martial arts nutter. It gives Russia a fear factor that keeps the Americans on their toes. 

 

It's actually one of the few plus points of Trump, he's seen as wacky enough to actually push the big red button. 

 

The reality is that that big red button in Moscow is controlled by Russia's oligarchs, in Washington its controlled by Wall Street and in Pyongyang its controlled by Beijing's billionaires. 

 

Nuclear apocalypse isn't profitable to any of those people. Even the arms dealers won't be all that keen, they'd much rather sell these nations a few aircraft carries full of multi billion dollar jets that never really get used than one million dollar nuke that ends it all.

Edited 4 September 2017 by Finnegan

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

What is actually your definition of this being "resolved" - if North Korea has acquired an H-Bomb that's eight times as big as the one that has hit Hiroshima I don't think that's a a situation that has been resolved.

 

For the first time now the whole World seems to be talking tough about this, the UN speeches were very interesting a few minutes ago and Russia, the USA and Japan all seemed to agree that this has now gone on long enough and it needs to be stopped. If China wants to try and step in front of the whole World then they'll probably be making a big mistake.

 

I admire you and @leicsmac faith here, but one country is sticking it's fingers up to the whole World and I get the feeling the whole "leave them be" attitude isn't a risk a lot of leaders are prepared to take anymore, although I realise talk is often cheap. Has a nation ever been this blaise in the face of such sanctions and international condemnation?

 

 

I was going to respond to this but Finn pretty much did it for me, with just one addendum.

 

This isn't about faith (sorry if you used that term loosely), but reasonably simple logic based on the idea that powerful folks like Kim care about one thing and one thing only - keeping that power.

[Guest MattP]

14 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

But do they really want to nuke Japan, South Korea or the United States? Or do they just want to be perceived as a threat on behalf of their ally? 

 

China can't start threatening the world with its own armament, they want to be on good diplomatic terms with the major powers, they have billions invested in everything from our energy suppliers to our football teams. 

 

But if NK start threatening the rest of the world then not only do China not have to do it themselves but they gain an enormous amount of political currency by acting as the holder of Kim's leash. 

 

I mean where do you think all these rapid advances in their development are coming from if not north of the border? As I said, Cuba by any other name. 

 

Other than him being some kind of hilarious, psychotic, nutty boogey man - what motive is there for Kim to ACTUALLY nuke anyone? It's just suicide by MAD. 

 

Even if he was that legitimately insane, why would his generals let him do it? You'd have to believe the entire ruling echelon of North Korea wanted to commit a largely country wide suicide bombing just to leave a legacy which is paranoia on a ridiculous scale. 

I presume the end game for them is developing nuclear capability that could destroy numerous US cities and therefore keeping them out of the next Korean war, reunification is the objective. 

 

Kim already is threatening the World, from South Korea to Guam to the USA - we have no idea how genuine he is, but he must be feeling extremely powerful at the minute, he keeps doing things despite being threatened and nothing happens. He must be laughing at the World running around after him.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think the Chinese have the most to lose, providing it wasn't a reunification of the country I doubt they'd get involved even if the World attempted a regime change and as I've said I before, I do believe the World has a moral obligation to free those people from that glorified prison in the same way we did after the first cold war behind the Soviet Union.

 

You didn't answer my question though, what do you see as this situation being resolved? If North Korea has developed nuclear weapons eight times bigger than Hiroshima you could argue they've won short term rather than anything being resolved, then they can push the boundaries a bit further next time.

[Buce]

12 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

To add to that, the idea of Kim being unhinged is one they'll probably gladly see promoted as it makes them appear more dangerous. We don't really know all that much about him, we get whatever news out of NK that they want to come out and a lot if it gets debunked as SK propaganda. 

 

It's like Putin. Putin loves the international image of him as some crazed bear fighting, shirtless, war obsessed martial arts nutter. It gives Russia a fear factor that keeps the Americans on their toes. 

 

It's actually one of the few plus points of Trump, he's seen as wacky enough to actually push the big red button. 

 

The reality is that that big red button in Moscow is controlled by Russia's oligarchs, in Washington its controlled by Wall Street and in Pyongyang its controlled by Beijing's billionaires. 

 

Nuclear apocalypse isn't profitable to any of those people. Even the arms dealers won't be all that keen, they'd much rather sell these nations a few aircraft carries full of multi billion dollar jets that never really get used than one million dollar nuke that ends it all.

 

http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ask/2013/nuclear-weapon-cost.html#.Wa1sQUHTXYU

[Guest MattP]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I was going to respond to this but Finn pretty much did it for me, with just one addendum.

 

This isn't about faith (sorry if you used that term loosely), but reasonably simple logic based on the idea that powerful folks like Kim care about one thing and one thing only - keeping that power.

We've used that logic in history before though and it's sometimes turned out to be wrong. The last century we saw it.

 

Dictators often have an attitude of all or nothing, we've seen that numerous times before.

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

We've used that logic in history before though and it's sometimes turned out to be wrong. The last century we saw it.

 

Dictators often have an attitude of all or nothing, we've seen that numerous times before.

Yes. However, that was because either they genuinely thought they had permission from bigger nations to go for invasions (Saddam) or were so big that they thought the opinion of the bigger nations didn't matter (Hitler, and even he didn't really want to take on the British Empire unless he absolutely had to).

 

In this case, neither of those things are true, and neither of them will be in the future, either. No matter how many nuclear weapons NK create, the US will still have more and the rules of MAD will still hold.

Edited 4 September 2017 by leicsmac

[MrSpaM]

TBH whatever North Korea fire, it'll get intercepted way before it hits it's target anyway

 

The one they fired over Japan the other week was most likely allowed to fly over for some reason, it's not like japan haven't got anti missile defences

Edited 4 September 2017 by MrSpaM

[Guest]

Interesting from former us defence sec.

 

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2017-08-15/north-koreas-nuclear-ambition-can-be-stopped-with-diplomacy?context=amp

 

3 hours ago, MrSpaM said:

TBH whatever North Korea fire, it'll get intercepted way before it hits it's target anyway

 

The one they fired over Japan the other week was most likely allowed to fly over for some reason, it's not like japan haven't got anti missile defences

 

Us test results are not hugely positive when it comes to shooting down missiles. 

[tom27111]

North Korea is a place that really intrigues me, I'd actually like to go, but I'm worried I'd inappropriately scratch my arse in front of a picture of 'the great leader' and be sentenced to life in a labour camp.

[Finnegan]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

I presume the end game for them is developing nuclear capability that could destroy numerous US cities and therefore keeping them out of the next Korean war, reunification is the objective. 

 

Kim already is threatening the World, from South Korea to Guam to the USA - we have no idea how genuine he is, but he must be feeling extremely powerful at the minute, he keeps doing things despite being threatened and nothing happens. He must be laughing at the World running around after him.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think the Chinese have the most to lose, providing it wasn't a reunification of the country I doubt they'd get involved even if the World attempted a regime change and as I've said I before, I do believe the World has a moral obligation to free those people from that glorified prison in the same way we did after the first cold war behind the Soviet Union.

 

You didn't answer my question though, what do you see as this situation being resolved? If North Korea has developed nuclear weapons eight times bigger than Hiroshima you could argue they've won short term rather than anything being resolved, then they can push the boundaries a bit further next time.

 

Stalemate. Both parties calming the eff down, NK agreeing to stop missile tests and in a response a few sanctions getting lifted or the Chinese upping their aid budget or whatever else it takes. 

 

It'd all be symbolic rubbish anyway. As I've maintained, NK is a glorified puppet state. When it's in China's best interests for them to wind their neck in then they'll vanish from the news again. 

[Manwell Pablo]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Yes. However, that was because either they genuinely thought they had permission from bigger nations to go for invasions (Saddam) or were so big that they thought the opinion of the bigger nations didn't matter (Hitler, and even he didn't really want to take on the British Empire unless he absolutely had to).

 

In this case, neither of those things are true, and neither of them will be in the future, either. No matter how many nuclear weapons NK create, the US will still have more and the rules of MAD will still hold.

 

His reluctness to go to war with us was based around ideology rather than any fear of our military power, he went after much bigger fish than us, he attempted a full scale invasion of the Soviet Union.

[Izzy]

I'm guessing all this weapons development costs a lot of money and I'm guessing NK mainly get their money from trade with China?

 

Surely if China stop trading with them they'll have no money to keep testing.

 

Far too simple a solution I'm sure...

[Dr The Singh]

Just now, Izzy Muzzett said:

I'm guessing all this weapons development costs a lot of money and I'm guessing NK mainly get their money from trade with China?

 

Surely if China stop trading with them they'll have no money to keep testing.

 

Far too simple a solution I'm sure...

But the logic is there and it's the truth.  China holds the cards and does not want it's ugly sister to become a democracy

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Manwell Pablo said:

 

His reluctness to go to war with us was based around ideology rather than any fear of our military power, he went after much bigger fish than us, he attempted a full scale invasion of the Soviet Union.

That's a really fair point. He actually liked what we'd done in terms of empire-building, after all - and though the invasion of the Soviet Union was probably a necessity for him, it doomed Nazi Germany the moment it was launched.

 

However...I think my point still stands, though - brutal dictators throughout history tend to do stuff because for one reason or another they think they won't get called on it and feel the full consequences. That's definitively not the case here; everyone with a brain knows how things play out if the NK's step over the line.

[Guest]

16 hours ago, MrSpaM said:

TBH whatever North Korea fire, it'll get intercepted way before it hits it's target anyway

 

The one they fired over Japan the other week was most likely allowed to fly over for some reason, it's not like japan haven't got anti missile defences

It's all to do with how it looks. 

NK file a test over Japan, Japan/US shoot it down and thus provoking conflict

 

If NK strike first then it's game over for the Kim Family and everyone in command, they will only strike if it's a pure accident with a missile going off course

IF US strikes first then China & (possibly) Russia will be in support of NK and we will have a bigger conflict.

 

Basically what will happen is the big T in USA will continue to tweet and condemn, NK will continue to develop weapons. nonsensical sanctions will be put in place, however NK will continue to deal and operate under pseudonym companies all over the world. The media will continue to report on it and we will all go about our lives

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

I'm guessing all this weapons development costs a lot of money and I'm guessing NK mainly get their money from trade with China?

 

Surely if China stop trading with them they'll have no money to keep testing.

 

Far too simple a solution I'm sure...

That's my thoughts, but I was watching a documentary that traced products going into NK and although it couldn't find the source there was evidence that NK are operating under various guises in different countries. The majority of these companies are probably operating via, but not solely out of China. The operation is called "room 39" that is basically where all the money coming in from different countries end up and they estimate it into the 100's on millions of dollars a year. The documentary said they are potentially printing US money and laundering it back into the system.....you should look up room 39, it's fascinating 

[whoareyaaa]

Reminds me of Hilter

1 hour ago, Soundman said:

It's all to do with how it looks. 

NK file a test over Japan, Japan/US shoot it down and thus provoking conflict

 

If NK strike first then it's game over for the Kim Family and everyone in command, they will only strike if it's a pure accident with a missile going off course

IF US strikes first then China & (possibly) Russia will be in support of NK and we will have a bigger conflict.

 

Basically what will happen is the big T in USA will continue to tweet and condemn, NK will continue to develop weapons. nonsensical sanctions will be put in place, however NK will continue to deal and operate under pseudonym companies all over the world. The media will continue to report on it and we will all go about our lives

or he goes full Hilter style however like it has been said I'm sure the US has enough weaponry to dismantle NK.

[Guest MattP]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41158281

 

Hard to disagree with anythng Putin has said here.

[Countryfox]

Its all getting a bit tense now.  DT is playing into Kims hands by making threats ..   his main tool to stay in power is the 'defence of the homeland from the US murderers' and all he has to do is broadcast DT's threats and the people will follow like sheep ...   all Kim wants is to stay in power, end of.  He will carry on till he has exactly what he wants and nothing will stop him or make him change his mind ...   nothing ...   sanctions do not bother him ..  yet.  Trump has given it large and now the world is waiting to see what he will do.  He knows (his advisors will have spelt it out ) that if he presses the button there will be tens of thousands of casualties and he will go down in history as some sort of madman.  Even if he tries to knock out all of the nuclear threat the north still has enough conventional weapons to obliterate South Korea, minimum.  So, in this game of high stakes world poker what will Trump do ? ...   cus for me its all about what is going on under that nylon hairdo ...     He can't push the button and he can't lose face.   Option 1, he gets the Chinese to sever all relations with NK and eventually the noose will tighten so that Kim is in the ridiculous position of being in charge of a country that is on its knees ....   benefit is there is no nuclear armageddon and the end result would be the fall of Kim one way or the other ...   eventually.    Option 2, he 'takes out' Kim but that is very difficult without inside help and if it fails the little bugger MAY just push his button.    Option 3, the US uses its 'secret weapon technology' to neutralise NK ...   they probably have weapons that could shut the country down with no loss of life ...   but it may still be unproven.     There are of course even more scenarios depending on how mad these two idiots are ..   but I don't see that happening as it does not benefit them as individuals.

 

So, what do I think ? ...   well I haven't got a fookin clue ! ....  however, any of those 3 options would not surprise me ...     perhaps all 3 at the same time ? 

[Guest]

20 hours ago, MattP said:

I presume the end game for them is developing nuclear capability that could destroy numerous US cities and therefore keeping them out of the next Korean war, reunification is the objective. 

 

Kim already is threatening the World, from South Korea to Guam to the USA - we have no idea how genuine he is, but he must be feeling extremely powerful at the minute, he keeps doing things despite being threatened and nothing happens. He must be laughing at the World running around after him.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think the Chinese have the most to lose, providing it wasn't a reunification of the country I doubt they'd get involved even if the World attempted a regime change and as I've said I before, I do believe the World has a moral obligation to free those people from that glorified prison in the same way we did after the first cold war behind the Soviet Union.

 

You didn't answer my question though, what do you see as this situation being resolved? If North Korea has developed nuclear weapons eight times bigger than Hiroshima you could argue they've won short term rather than anything being resolved, then they can push the boundaries a bit further next time.

 honestly think you're as far wide of the mark as it comes. The only way it can be solved is for nk to stop tests in exchange for us/sk stop wargaming. The Chinese explicitely said this only the other day. But the us isn't willing to stop wargaming. There is no other end game. 

[m4DD0gg]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 honestly think you're as far wide of the mark as it comes. The only way it can be solved is for nk to stop tests in exchange for us/sk stop wargaming. The Chinese explicitely said this only the other day. But the us isn't willing to stop wargaming. There is no other end game. 

Whilst i agree with this do we really want to see this monster grow further?

 

Also i think it sets a precedence to other 'rogue' nations with nuclear ambitions.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, Soundman said:

That's my thoughts, but I was watching a documentary that traced products going into NK and although it couldn't find the source there was evidence that NK are operating under various guises in different countries. The majority of these companies are probably operating via, but not solely out of China. The operation is called "room 39" that is basically where all the money coming in from different countries end up and they estimate it into the 100's on millions of dollars a year. The documentary said they are potentially printing US money and laundering it back into the system.....you should look up room 39, it's fascinating 

Interesting stuff.

 

It doesn't surprise me that they have deniable fingers in many pies (moody banknotes, drugs etc) around the world under different guises, otherwise their internal economy would be even worse than it is now.

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 honestly think you're as far wide of the mark as it comes. The only way it can be solved is for nk to stop tests in exchange for us/sk stop wargaming. The Chinese explicitely said this only the other day. But the us isn't willing to stop wargaming. There is no other end game. 

North Korea isn't stopping tests whatever the US or Korea does, they have consistently said that.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, m4DD0gg said:

Whilst i agree with this do we really want to see this monster grow further?

 

Also i think it sets a precedence to other 'rogue' nations with nuclear ambitions.

As has been said repeatedly, if you have another idea that won't end up resulting in widespread death and destruction then everyone is all ears. It would definitely be welcomed.

 

Those other nations are going to be looking to get their hands on fissile material and ballistic tech no matter what the NK's do anyway.

 

2 hours ago, MattP said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41158281

 

Hard to disagree with anythng Putin has said here.

Yeah, he's hit the nail pretty much on the head there.

 

Also, "war is never something the United States wants"? Not entirely sure I believe you there, Miss Haley.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, m4DD0gg said:

Whilst i agree with this do we really want to see this monster grow further?

 

Also i think it sets a precedence to other 'rogue' nations with nuclear ambitions.

Its no different to what happened with the deal with iran. That's worked well.

 

Id much rather the us stopped worrying about saving face and started thinking seriously about ending a dangerous stand off via diplomatic means.