Brexit - Has anybody actually changed their minds?

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

At least part of me thinks that Parliament requesting a Norway-type Brexit would be the best outcome now - and I'm sure the EU would agree an Article 50 extension and deal on that basis.

Some solution would still have to be found for the Irish border issue, but some sort of Customs Union/Arrangement or minimum checks on trade across the Irish Sea are options.

 

Obviously, I still think that Remain would be the best outcome. But that would now only be obtainable (if at all) via a high-risk, highly-divisive referendum. I'd expect that to be very damaging and polarising, up to and including violence, potentially deaths. I'd opt for that risk ahead of all that a disorderly No Deal means, and maybe a referendum would turn out OK.....but it is a big risk.

 

As for the arguments during the (first) referendum, I increasingly see both camps as nests of vipers with all the lies and dishonest propaganda.....possibly another argument against a second referendum, as who's to stop that happening again? 

 

 

As MattP said of Macron's capitulation to the Yellow Vests, no government should have its policy decided by the threat of violence...

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

As MattP said of Macron's capitulation to the Yellow Vests, no government should have its policy decided by the threat of violence...

 

True - and I'd favour taking the risk of violence implicit in a second referendum, rather than accept No Deal, an outcome that very few wanted or expected and one that would bring a much bigger risk of violence and damage, short and long-term.

 

But, however much you and I might regret the referendum result, there was a Leave vote. If Parliament can find a half-sane Leave solution, such as a Norway-type deal, that avoids social conflict, that could be the best outcome.

I'm clear that it would still do harm compared to staying in the EU, but sadly we cannot just turn back the clock and dis-invent that referendum. If we have another referendum, that could do harm in various ways, too - and could even lead to a much harsher Brexit, as well as a more viciously divided nation.

 

I'm not naive. I assume that divisions will persist now whatever the outcome, it's just a case of how visceral they are....and I suppose that will mainly be determined by other factors such as living standards, security, social harmony, inequality, democratic accountability etc.

 

 

 

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

True - and I'd favour taking the risk of violence implicit in a second referendum, rather than accept No Deal, an outcome that very few wanted or expected and one that would bring a much bigger risk of violence and damage, short and long-term.

 

But, however much you and I might regret the referendum result, there was a Leave vote. If Parliament can find a half-sane Leave solution, such as a Norway-type deal, that avoids social conflict, that could be the best outcome.

I'm clear that it would still do harm compared to staying in the EU, but sadly we cannot just turn back the clock and dis-invent that referendum. If we have another referendum, that could do harm in various ways, too - and could even lead to a much harsher Brexit, as well as a more viciously divided nation.

 

I'm not naive. I assume that divisions will persist now whatever the outcome, it's just a case of how visceral they are....and I suppose that will mainly be determined by other factors such as living standards, security, social harmony, inequality, democratic accountability etc.

 

 

 

 

I think there will be social unrest regardless once the reality of what  Brexit means becomes apparent to (ironically) the very areas that voted most enthusiastically for it. 

Not even the most ardent Leavers are denying things are going to be worse. Words like ‘soveriegnty’ won’t put food on the table.

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I think there will be social unrest regardless once the reality of what  Brexit means becomes apparent to (ironically) the very areas that voted most enthusiastically for it. 

Not even the most ardent Leavers are denying things are going to be worse. Words like ‘soveriegnty’ won’t put food on the table.

 

You could well be right. I'm sure there'll be a lot of discontent - and possibly unrest.

 

But how much of that will be due to the Brexit outcome and how much due to ongoing factors, most of which were causal factors in the Brexit vote: stagnant/falling incomes, insecure employment, lack of affordable housing, rising inequality, distrust of the London elite, declining public services, distrust of other social/racial groups, rising crime etc?

 

I think we risk major discontent and unrest regardless of the Brexit outcome - even if we somehow miraculously end up remaining in the EU - unless we start to successfully address those problems, which is no easy task.

Incidentally, I think many EU countries will face the same unrest (indeed they already are). It's the times we're living through: late/advanced capitalism in the era of globalisation.

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You could well be right. I'm sure there'll be a lot of discontent - and possibly unrest.

 

But how much of that will be due to the Brexit outcome and how much due to ongoing factors, most of which were causal factors in the Brexit vote: stagnant/falling incomes, insecure employment, lack of affordable housing, rising inequality, distrust of the London elite, declining public services, distrust of other social/racial groups, rising crime etc?

 

I think we risk major discontent and unrest regardless of the Brexit outcome - even if we somehow miraculously end up remaining in the EU - unless we start to successfully address those problems, which is no easy task.

Incidentally, I think many EU countries will face the same unrest (indeed they already are). It's the times we're living through: late/advanced capitalism in the era of globalisation.

 

Yeah, that’s pretty much what I meant though I lack your eloquence. 

 

It will be a rude awakening if/when they get their Brexit wish and none of those problems go away. 

 

What a bloody mess our kids are inheriting. 

[gw_leics772]

As the vast majority of people kindly followed the request in my opening post, and  therefore have mostly politely agreed to disagree, i think there's grounds for me starting all match and pre match threads ? (although i couldnt be arsed really, and they either be too late, too early, or I'd forget altogether)

Seriously, thanks people, ive enjoyed this thread and learned a lot from people far better informed than i am.

Even found myself wavering at one point, but i now feel safe in the knowledge that nobody has a scooby what will happen next and a people's vote i far from a foregone conclusion.( both in terms of whether it will happen and/or the likely result)

I shall continue to follow it with interest but will largely concentrate on getting on with my wn cluster**** of a life.

 

Thanks again. Far more informative than my attempt on facebook that just led me to favour a dictatorship over letting some of them loons vote ?

[gw_leics772]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=524551098021286&id=438456536486382

 

An interesting video. Sorry cant work out how to post it without the link. If anyone could do this for me or give me an idiots guide it would be appreciated.

 

Thanks

 

 

Edited 19 December 2018 by gw_leics772

[gw_leics772]

 

 

[Carl the Llama]

15 hours ago, gw_leics772 said:

 

 

I "wouldn't be thrilled" with the deal and I "strongly agree" with remaining in the EU.  I appreciate you all may need some time to come to terms with this development.

[RumbleFox]

Voted Remain and would again but I must admit that I feel we should stick to the results of the original vote as depressing as that is.  The whole thing has been the shambles that all of us could have predicted.  X

[LiberalFox]

I voted remain and would vote remain again. 

[Ian Nacho]

I wasn't old enough to vote at the time, it's got to the point now I don't care what they do, just do it properly whatever you're going to do. If you're going to leave, leave. 

[Sly]

Remain / now unsure

 

I was 50/50 on the matter leading up to the vote. Most people I knew voted leave, I just didn’t believe we’d get the idealistic “free break” that many wanted. In the end, I went for the better the devil you know and voted remain. I’m unsure how I’d vote now. The divorce bill seems extreamly harsh and has tinted my opinion of the EU, which I perceive will continue in a downward spiral without us.

 

The propaganda that was banded around from both sides was ridiculous. 

 

I’ve always been a Conservative too and this whole thing and internal fighting has damaged my opinion on the party. At the minute, I’d be looking at voting Green or something like that if we had a general election. 

 

My business alone must have wasted millions of pounds in time alone talking about Brexit. Nationally, this must have been bigger than the weekly saving for the NHS! The overall impact to the economy isn’t great currently, however either way, I’m hoping it’ll stabilise and set itself at a better level long term.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Sly said:

Remain / now unsure

 

I was 50/50 on the matter leading up to the vote. Most people I knew voted leave, I just didn’t believe we’d get the idealistic “free break” that many wanted. In the end, I went for the better the devil you know and voted remain. I’m unsure how I’d vote now. The divorce bill seems extreamly harsh and has tinted my opinion of the EU, which I perceive will continue in a downward spiral without us.

 

The propaganda that was banded around from both sides was ridiculous. 

 

I’ve always been a Conservative too and this whole thing and internal fighting has damaged my opinion on the party. At the minute, I’d be looking at voting Green or something like that if we had a general election. 

 

My business alone must have wasted millions of pounds in time alone talking about Brexit. Nationally, this must have been bigger than the weekly saving for the NHS! The overall impact to the economy isn’t great currently, however either way, I’m hoping it’ll stabilise and set itself at a better level long term.

 

You baulk at paying the divorce bill - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

You'd vote for the Remain supporting Greens - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

Your business has wasted millions on Brexit already - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

The economy is already fvcked and we haven't left yet - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

 

Universal Suffrage is so overrated.

Edited 1 January 2019 by Buce

[Wolfox]

When looking at the national benefit there is simply not a debate to be had regarding this question….

 

Philosophical grandstanding from politicians who play to their gallery as opposed to making good decisions on complex issues for the benefit of everyone is the issue here…  

 

We should never been asked to vote in the first place…

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

You baulk at paying the divorce bill - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

You'd vote for the Remain supporting Greens - but you're not sure how you'll vote. 

Your business has wasted millions on Brexit already - but you're not sure how you'll vote. 

The economy is already fvcked and we haven't left yet - but you're not sure how you'll vote.

 

Universal Suffrage is so overrated.

You do go over the top sometimes Buce. I can't be bothered to get into a slanging match on here or a lengthy debate which has been done a thousand times before, but some of the stuff you say is an overection.

 

As it stands it could go either way atm, Mays deal or no deal. I personally hope we go for no deal.

Edited 1 January 2019 by Leicester_Loyal

[Leicester_Loyal]

25 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

When looking at the national benefit there is simply not a debate to be had regarding this question….

 

Philosophical grandstanding from politicians who play to their gallery as opposed to making good decisions on complex issues for the benefit of everyone is the issue here…   

 

We should never been asked to vote in the first place… 

The reason we were asked is because Cameron wanted to steal a lot of the UKIP vote. A vote or a major debate on our EU membership has been wanted by the public for a long time in all fairness.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, Sly said:

Remain / now unsure

 

I was 50/50 on the matter leading up to the vote. Most people I knew voted leave, I just didn’t believe we’d get the idealistic “free break” that many wanted. In the end, I went for the better the devil you know and voted remain. I’m unsure how I’d vote now. The divorce bill seems extreamly harsh and has tinted my opinion of the EU, which I perceive will continue in a downward spiral without us.

 

The propaganda that was banded around from both sides was ridiculous. 

 

I’ve always been a Conservative too and this whole thing and internal fighting has damaged my opinion on the party. At the minute, I’d be looking at voting Green or something like that if we had a general election. 

 

My business alone must have wasted millions of pounds in time alone talking about Brexit. Nationally, this must have been bigger than the weekly saving for the NHS! The overall impact to the economy isn’t great currently, however either way, I’m hoping it’ll stabilise and set itself at a better level long term.

 

A bit too early in 2019 for detailed Brexit debates - plus there's a match on - but just on the divorce bill....

 

This isn't a bill for leaving, as such. It comprises budget commitments we cannot reasonable renege on at short notice plus our share of EU liabilities.

Here are 2 explanations (the Reuters one is more detailed but a bit oudated): https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-bill-factbox/factbox-what-is-the-brexit-divorce-bill-idUSKCN1AV158

 

Of course, some will and do quibble about the precise amount that we have to pay, saying the liabilities are too high and we should be credited for assets contributed etc.

But most of it is pretty uncontroversial - just cash that we owe according to any reasonable definition.

I think of it as being like quitting a rented flat: you have to pay the rent for a certain period, not just leave without notice; you pay the bills you owe (liabilities) and won't get too much credit for that decorating work you did (assets).

 

Interesting to see in that Reuters article that some were initially estimating the divorce payment at 60bn Euros, so the figure has been negotiated down a bit.

[Buce]

8 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

You do go over the top sometimes Buce. I can't be bothered to get into a N Uslanging match on here or a lengthy debate which has been done a thousand times before, but some of the stuff you say is an overection.

 

As it stands it could go either way atm, Mays deal or no deal. I personally hope we go for no deal.

 

I dare say that’s for the best if you can’t formulate an argument without it becoming a slanging match. 

 

[Wolfox]

8 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The reason we were asked is because Cameron wanted to steal a lot of the UKIP vote. A vote or a major debate on our EU membership has been wanted by the public for a long time in all fairness.

By who?  I don’t think so…. It was wanted by a few of right wing Tories and UKIP…. I don’t believe for one second that there was a huge outpouring of national pressure to debate this…

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

I dare say that’s for the best if you can’t formulate an argument without it becoming a slanging match.  

 

There's been hundreds of debates on here over the past 2 years. I won't change my opinion, you won't change yours. I disagree that the economy is '****ed'.

 

Have a good day.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Wolfox said:

By who?  I don’t think so…. It was wanted by a few of right wing Tories and UKIP…. I don’t believe for one second that there was a huge outpouring of national pressure to debate this…

Surely the fact the referendum had the highest turnout for any vote in our nation's history showed there was a huge appetite for it.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

There's been hundreds of debates on here over the past 2 years. I won't change my opinion, you won't change yours. I disagree that the economy is '****ed'.

 

Have a good day.

Anyone who thinks our economy is "****ed" quite simply isn't paying any attention.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, Wolfox said:

By who?  I don’t think so…. It was wanted by a few of right wing Tories and UKIP…. I don’t believe for one second that there was a huge outpouring of national pressure to debate this…

Wasn't it part of UKIPs 2015 manifesto? They got about 12% of the votes and Conservatives wanted to grab some of that voting power.

 

Lets not forget the MPs voted overwhelmingly to give the public this vote, so the people who 'should' make the decisions for us because they know best wanted to give us this vote.

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

There's been hundreds of debates on here over the past 2 years. I won't change my opinion, you won't change yours. I disagree that the economy is '****ed'.

 

Have a good day.

 

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Anyone who thinks our economy is "****ed" quite simply isn't paying any attention.

 

It was the poster I was quoting who implied it, not me. 

 

Pay attention, boys.