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yorkie1999

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By yorkie1999, in General Chat

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/02/2019 at 09:21, Alf Bentley said:

Meanwhile, here's Peston giving a very logical, credible explanation of why No Deal is now looking quite likely: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-i-think-a-no-deal-brexit-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/

I've always been hopeful that it would be avoided as our MPs/Govt/Opposition wouldn't want to get the blame for the potential disaster now and in history. But Peston's arguments are pretty convincing.

Unless the EU capitulates on the backstop (unlikely), for there to be a negotiated Brexit deal, one or other of the main parties now has to take major damage - damage likely to split that party and potentially keep it out of power for a generation, at least.

A lot of ERG MPs/Tory members/voters will never accept May giving much ground to Labour on Brexit - but a lot of Labour MPs and most Labour members/voters will not tolerate Corbyn giving much ground to May....

 

So, in a few weeks, we might find out a few truths: Was all the talk of Channel port snarl-ups, food/medicine shortages & economic damage just Project Fear? Is there really little chance of social unrest? Has Liam Fox got all these planned global trade deals up his sleeve? Will we really be absolutely fine trading on WTO terms? I still hope that we don't find out the answers to those questions as I'd expect some very bad answers in the short-term and worse answers in the medium-term. A Soft Brexit deal and post-deal investment surge seems appealing in this context.

Surely if faced with "no deal" she'll being her deal back to parliament and get it through won't she??

 

Have you watched the "Inside Europe" series over the last three weeks btw? If you haven't you'll find them fascinating. A real in depth look at the problems in the EU with footage from behind the scenes and interviews with everyone from Tusk to Sarkozy to Varafakis. (One on Brexit, one debt, last on migration)

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0c1rjj7

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/feb/11/inside-europe-superb-tv-that-shows-how-to-solve-the-european-crisis-eu-brexit

 

The one about the debt crisis is brilliant, the EU were absolutely brutal to the Greeks, in comparison they've been extremely kind to us in these negotiations lol

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, MattP said:

Surely if faced with "no deal" she'll being her deal back to parliament and get it through won't she??

 

Have you watched the "Inside Europe" series over the last three weeks btw? If you haven't you'll find them fascinating. A real in depth look at the problems in the EU with footage from behind the scenes and interviews with everyone from Tusk to Sarkozy to Varafakis. 

 

The one about the debt crisis is brilliant, the EU were absolutely brutal to the Greeks, in comparison they've been extremely kind to us in these negotiations lol

 

No, I haven't seen any of "Inside Europe". I'll try to catch it on I-Player. Sounds interesting.

 

Trying to calculate the Brexit outcome seriously twists my brain now. If Parliament is presented with a choice of May's Deal or No Deal at the last minute, would it back her?

Well, she lost by 230 votes last time so, ignoring abstentions, she needs to turn the votes of 115+ MPs. Who are they going to be?

 

Doubtless a few more Labour MPs would hold their noses and support her, to avoid No Deal and/or if she makes extra spending commitments. But remember that most Labour MPs, members and voters support Remain or a Softer Brexit - and Corbyn faced fierce criticism from every section of his party just for going as far as he did in his letter to May. Compromising to a much greater extent by helping May's Deal to pass would split the party down the middle, lose a large chunk of its membership and voter base, and possibly leave it in the electoral wilderness for a generation.....so probably not a mass switch of Labourites.  At least some of the Tory Moderates would return to May to avoid No Deal, but there weren't that many of them, anyway. Doubtless some of the Hard Brexit crew would hold their noses and support her - but how many? Quite a number would happily vote for No Deal rather than stomach the backstop, wouldn't they? Likewise, the DUP? Can you see 115+ extra votes there?

 

But is Parliament going to allow May to run down the clock and then give it a "My Deal or No Deal" ultimatum? And what impact will this furore over Olly Robbins' comments have?

I was assuming that it was the Tory Moderates who were more likely to scupper May's delaying tactics, by voting for a deadline extension or similar - but Robbins' comment that May plans to offer an alternative last-minute ultimatum - "My Deal or a Long Extension" - could turn the ERG crew against her, possibly as early as tomorrow...

 

Maybe I'm being naive, but can May really hope to string this out for another 5 weeks without getting unexpected concessions from the EU? I'm assuming that the EU will offer little more than a fig leaf - concessions in the non-binding Political Declaration or some sort of protocol that won't satisfy most of May's opponents. Won't one or other wing of the Tory Party bring this to a head sooner? Tory Remainers by backing a motion for an extension or the ERG by refusing May more negotiating time?

 

Of course, Parliament voting for an Article 50 Extension wouldn't necessarily prevent No Deal on 29th March. The EU27 would have to agree that unanimously - and at least some might prefer to get on with No Deal if there's no obvious prospect of the UK agreeing anything. I'm also dubious about Robbins' reported suggestion of a long extension to the deadline.....we'd then presumably have to take part in the European elections, pay more money to the EU, have continuing uncertainty for business, potential discontent on the streets..... That same time factor seems to make a second referendum highly unlikely now - though a general election could be turned round within about 5 weeks.....

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Wymsey

Wymsey

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I would steer clear of anyone in a hoodie.  I wonder how many stabbings in London are carried out by people in hoodies?

I personally believe that the government should limit the number of hoodies that certain retailers sell to youngsters etc (such as Sports Direct), particularly in areas of high-levels of stabbing incidents particularly in London.

Quite clearly, hoodies are often associated with organised gangs and hence they see them as a way of hiding part of their physical identify.

 

Might sound daft, this idea, but if the number of hoodies sold by well-known clothing retailers and the like are restricted - wouldn't be surprised to see the number of knife crimes in particular decrease.

 

Hoodies etc allow the offenders to commit their crime and run away from the scene without CCTV cameras, victims and witnesses fully seeing what they look hide and hence allows the offender the opportunity to get away with the offence and unlikely to get caught within a swift response.

 

Can't stand them, as well.

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Izzy

Izzy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

I personally believe that the government should limit the number of hoodies that certain retailers sell to youngsters etc (such as Sports Direct), particularly in areas of high-levels of stabbing incidents particularly in London.

Quite clearly, hoodies are often associated with organised gangs and hence they see them as a way of hiding part of their physical identify.

 

Might sound daft, this idea, but if the number of hoodies sold by well-known clothing retailers and the like are restricted - wouldn't be surprised to see the number of knife crimes in particular decrease.

 

Hoodies etc allow the offenders to commit their crime and run away from the scene without CCTV cameras, victims and witnesses fully seeing what they look hide and hence allows the offender the opportunity to get away with the offence and unlikely to get caught within a swift response.

 

Can't stand them, as well.

I freaking love you sometimes Whymsey :thumbup:

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Pretty amazing grown men wear hoodies anyway.

 

I sometimes still wear an LCFC hoodie that my Mum bought me for Christmas about 6 years ago. Then again, I've never had a clue about fashion or self-presentation.

 

It hasn't caused me to stab anyone yet, but I wouldn't rule it out.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

No, I haven't seen any of "Inside Europe". I'll try to catch it on I-Player. Sounds interesting.

 

Trying to calculate the Brexit outcome seriously twists my brain now. If Parliament is presented with a choice of May's Deal or No Deal at the last minute, would it back her?

Well, she lost by 230 votes last time so, ignoring abstentions, she needs to turn the votes of 115+ MPs. Who are they going to be?

 

Doubtless a few more Labour MPs would hold their noses and support her, to avoid No Deal and/or if she makes extra spending commitments. But remember that most Labour MPs, members and voters support Remain or a Softer Brexit - and Corbyn faced fierce criticism from every section of his party just for going as far as he did in his letter to May. Compromising to a much greater extent by helping May's Deal to pass would split the party down the middle, lose a large chunk of its membership and voter base, and possibly leave it in the electoral wilderness for a generation.....so probably not a mass switch of Labourites.  At least some of the Tory Moderates would return to May to avoid No Deal, but there weren't that many of them, anyway. Doubtless some of the Hard Brexit crew would hold their noses and support her - but how many? Quite a number would happily vote for No Deal rather than stomach the backstop, wouldn't they? Likewise, the DUP? Can you see 115+ extra votes there?

 

But is Parliament going to allow May to run down the clock and then give it a "My Deal or No Deal" ultimatum? And what impact will this furore over Olly Robbins' comments have?

I was assuming that it was the Tory Moderates who were more likely to scupper May's delaying tactics, by voting for a deadline extension or similar - but Robbins' comment that May plans to offer an alternative last-minute ultimatum - "My Deal or a Long Extension" - could turn the ERG crew against her, possibly as early as tomorrow...

 

Maybe I'm being naive, but can May really hope to string this out for another 5 weeks without getting unexpected concessions from the EU? I'm assuming that the EU will offer little more than a fig leaf - concessions in the non-binding Political Declaration or some sort of protocol that won't satisfy most of May's opponents. Won't one or other wing of the Tory Party bring this to a head sooner? Tory Remainers by backing a motion for an extension or the ERG by refusing May more negotiating time?

 

Of course, Parliament voting for an Article 50 Extension wouldn't necessarily prevent No Deal on 29th March. The EU27 would have to agree that unanimously - and at least some might prefer to get on with No Deal if there's no obvious prospect of the UK agreeing anything. I'm also dubious about Robbins' reported suggestion of a long extension to the deadline.....we'd then presumably have to take part in the European elections, pay more money to the EU, have continuing uncertainty for business, potential discontent on the streets..... That same time factor seems to make a second referendum highly unlikely now - though a general election could be turned round within about 5 weeks.....

Do try and find three hours to watch it, it will be right up your street,

If it comes to the crunch then surely parliament isn't going to vote for a No Deal Brexit? I just can't in any way see them actually doing that assuming May can run the clock down and I presume that's exactly why she is doing it. Voting against will be the Labour front bench and the ERG - apart from that they must have 326 votes between them even discounting the minor parties.

The EU has some serious form for late minute negotiation and I imagine that's she's banking on parliamentarians managing to "hold it's nerve" to get some sort of meaningful concession she can bring back towards the end of March.
 

If parliament does vote for an Article 50 extension does she even have to do it? I mean the EU have stated there is only room for an extension if it involves a General Election or a Second referendum, there appears to be no desire for those in the HoC at the minute either.

 

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

I swear they’re just making stereotypes up now.

I have no idea what has happened to David Lammy recently, he used to be one of the happy go lucky moderates in the Labour party that was always good for a gaffe or a laugh, over the last twelve months he's turned into a combination of Malcolm X and Mary Whitehouse.

I wonder if he's having to show his right-on credentials as he's under some pressure with his local Labour party, he now seems to wake up every morning with the intention of finding something or someone that was racist (comically this last week included him managing to accuse himself of it indirectly during a debate with Javid)

Give us back the David Lammy who thought Marie Curie got the gullotine, the "I've not seen a policeman here all day" Lammy, the BBC was racist because it reported the Vatican used black smoke Lammy - the Lammy we could all love.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

Yes it’s amazing that grown men still wear 1 of the most popular items of clothing in existence. A revelation. 

 

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

I sometimes still wear an LCFC hoodie that my Mum bought me for Christmas about 6 years ago. Then again, I've never had a clue about fashion or self-presentation.

 

It hasn't caused me to stab anyone yet, but I wouldn't rule it out.

I think football attire is a bit different, I mean we all wear daft things with our clubs name on. I've always associated "hoodies" with late teenage years though, I don't know any adults who wear them.

A quick google of the question though - In this obviously very scientific study, men think you are too old at 24, women at 29 - https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/revealed-age-you-become-old-676867

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EnderbyFox

EnderbyFox

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

I personally believe that the government should limit the number of hoodies that certain retailers sell to youngsters etc (such as Sports Direct), particularly in areas of high-levels of stabbing incidents particularly in London.

Quite clearly, hoodies are often associated with organised gangs and hence they see them as a way of hiding part of their physical identify.

 

Might sound daft, this idea, but if the number of hoodies sold by well-known clothing retailers and the like are restricted - wouldn't be surprised to see the number of knife crimes in particular decrease.

 

Hoodies etc allow the offenders to commit their crime and run away from the scene without CCTV cameras, victims and witnesses fully seeing what they look hide and hence allows the offender the opportunity to get away with the offence and unlikely to get caught within a swift response.

 

Can't stand them, as well.

 

Bloody hell this is peak Wymeswold lol brilliant. 

 

What about hats, can we limit those as well?

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urban.spaceman

urban.spaceman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wymeswold fox said:

I personally believe that the government should limit the number of hoodies that certain retailers sell to youngsters etc (such as Sports Direct), particularly in areas of high-levels of stabbing incidents particularly in London.

Quite clearly, hoodies are often associated with organised gangs and hence they see them as a way of hiding part of their physical identify.

 

Might sound daft, this idea, but if the number of hoodies sold by well-known clothing retailers and the like are restricted - wouldn't be surprised to see the number of knife crimes in particular decrease.

 

Hoodies etc allow the offenders to commit their crime and run away from the scene without CCTV cameras, victims and witnesses fully seeing what they look hide and hence allows the offender the opportunity to get away with the offence and unlikely to get caught within a swift response.

 

Can't stand them, as well.

The trouble with this Wymesy is that if you did ban hoodies they’d just go out and buy hijabs and burkas to conceal their identities, which would just create whole new issues altogether. 

 

Should probably steer clear of that one. 

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
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Just now, Strokes said:

I wear my hoodie when I walk the dog, which is god backwards. So really it’s religious clothing. So stop being racist @MattP!

Hood down is fine. I imagine the sort of people who wear their hoods up are the same ones who have their trouser belt around their knees.

 

It's very dangerous as well to go full hoodie, a surprisingly high number of folk who wear hoodies, make gun gestures with their hands and pose with wads of cash seem to get caught in the crossfire of violence despite almost always being of good character. It's a dreadful coincidence. 

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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MattP said:

Hood down is fine. I imagine the sort of people who wear their hoods up are the same ones who have their trouser belt around their knees.

 

It's very dangerous as well to go full hoodie, a surprisingly high number of folk who wear hoodies, make gun gestures with their hands and pose with wads of cash seem to get caught in the crossfire of violence despite almost always being of good character. It's a dreadful coincidence. 

I only pull my hood up when I want to stab someone..........oh and occasionally when it rains :D

 

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

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Posted

As far as I can make out, any “proper” Brexit, including no deal, or a just an FTA without membership of the Customs Union, means that the EU would need to insist on a hard border in Ireland.

 

On the other hand, any softer Brexit, including the arrangements during the transition period in May’s deal or the backstop, would result in the UK having to follow EU rules but have little say in framing them.

 

The only other arrangement I could envisage would be some form of Hard Brexit with a United Ireland, but I assume that would likely result in Unionist violence in Northern Ireland, and would be scuppered by the DUP in parliament anyway.

 

Do I have this right? How is any of this better than staying in the EU and at least having a strong voice in its future development?

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Izzy said:

I freaking love you sometimes Whymsey :thumbup:

Raving bonkers!

 

2 hours ago, Samilktray said:

You think you’ve read it all on here and then someone suggesting retailers should be limited to the amount of hoodies they can sell. Absolutely baffling stuff. 

 

I used to think that he was the greatest WUM on the site then I actually realised that he believed the things he was saying.

 

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Pretty amazing grown men wear hoodies anyway.

I'm starting to move into the old man age range and I wear a hoodie most days when I'm out walking the dog.

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