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14 minutes ago, MattP said:

At some point the two main parties might actually have a lightbulb moment. 

I would like to agree matt but they seem a long way off.

 

Anywho EU elections 2019...who've thought that after the vote 3 years ago?.

 

Can see the Brexit party causing a bit of mischief, I'd expect them to do well, harder to tell if Change will have a similar impact or not.

 

I'm not sure if its funny or tragic that after we voted to leave our PM is in Brussels pleading to stay in.

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8 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

I would like to agree matt but they seem a long way off.

 

Anywho EU elections 2019...who've thought that after the vote 3 years ago?.

 

Can see the Brexit party causing a bit of mischief, I'd expect them to do well, harder to tell if Change will have a similar impact or not.

 

I'm not sure if its funny or tragic that after we voted to leave our PM is in Brussels pleading to stay in.

If the Brexit party and UKIP stand it's going to split the Eurosceptic vote in half and could lead to them costing themselves quire a few seats.

 

It's tragic, deeply tragic.

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32 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Brexit party and UKIP stand it's going to split the Eurosceptic vote in half and could lead to them costing themselves quire a few seats.

 

It's tragic, deeply tragic.

Hopefully farage will draw enough away from ukip when properly promoted. Although it will take some doing.

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

Looked like Tolstoy when he departed. 

 

Bizarre he thought threatening the Ecuadorian government was the way to go - now sit back and enjoy his online nuttermob proclaim his innocence and pick your favourite conspiracy theory.

Couldn't believe he'd been holed up there for 7 years.  How long was he planning on staying there?

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

If the Brexit party and UKIP stand it's going to split the Eurosceptic vote in half and could lead to them costing themselves quire a few seats.

 

It's tragic, deeply tragic.

Surely all the other parties split the pro-euro vote. 

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2 hours ago, MattP said:

At some point the two main parties might actually have a lightbulb moment. 

 

So, we've got local elections in 3 weeks, will probably have Euro elections in 6 weeks and might (but probably won't) have a general election soon.

 

These poll figures are for a hypothetical general election - and suggest that the smaller parties, apart from the SNP, would achieve little due to First Past the Post. If a general election was dominated by Brexit, the parties with a pure Leave or Remain message might do significantly better than those figures suggest.....but still probably wouldn't win many seats as a party needs to be getting 25%+ in any given seat to stand a chance of electing an MP. For what it's worth, those figures suggest Labour as largest party in another hung parliament, with few MPs for smaller parties apart from the SNP - though small shifts in national vote or regional differences could affect that.

 

I presume that turnout in the local elections will be pitiful. Minor gains for Labour and other opposition parties, including UKIP? Probably nothing spectacular beyond a miserable turnout, I'd guess....

 

It's in the European elections that the UKIP/Brexit Party & Lib Dem/ChangeUK/Green split votes could damage those parties. As the European elections use PR to elect multiple MEPs for different regions, a party only needs about 8%-13% to elect at least one MEP in each region (about 8% in the SE, as it has the most MEPs; at least 13% in small regions like East Midlands). If the real voting figures were anything like that poll, Labour and Tories would win the vast majority of MEPs. The smaller parties would win a few due to regional differences, but not many, based on those figures. Though I suspect that strongly Remain or Leave parties will do better than those figures suggest as turnout could be very low and the voters most likely to turn out will be those with a strong view one way or the other. But UKIP won more MEPs than any other party in 2014 - so we could elect a much LESS Eurosceptic group of MEPs this time!

 

It's true that the Hard Brexit cause could be damaged at the Euro elections by the vote splitting between UKIP and Brexit Party. Same applies on the other side, with those supporting a second referendum splitting between Lib Dems, Change UK & Greens.

Hard for any of those parties to do a deal at the European elections, though. It's a massive opportunity for all of them to make some sort of breakthrough. That could happen if either UKIP or the Brexit Party overwhelms the other or if one out of the 3 Remainer parties dominates the Remainer vote......they could easily fvck it up between them, though, so that the Tories and Labour lose lots of voters but still win most of the MEPs in England & Wales...

 

If there were to be an early general election dominated by Brexit, deals between the different parties would be more feasible. You could imagine UKIP and Brexit Party not standing against ERG Tories or maybe against one another's dominant figures, depending on the level of internecine vitriol. LIkewise, you could imagine Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK not standing against one another's serving MPs or, at least, not campaigning in those seats. 

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14 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

The EU elections are by PR, so split votes aren’t such an issue.

 

It's true that PR makes it easier for smaller parties to get MEPs elected than under FPTP at general elections.

 

But split votes still matters big-time.

 

The particular system of PR - 3 to 10 MEPs elected per region - means that you need at least 8%-13% of the vote in a region to get an MEP elected.

 

Obviously, parties don't get a uniform vote nationwide, but to make it simpler imagine that they do.....

Based on those polling figures, with UKIP, Brexit Party, Lib Dems, Greens & Change UK all on 4% to 8%, they'd barely get a handful of MEPs between them.

Whereas if UKIP & Brexit Party were a single entity getting 15% and Lib Dems, Greens, Change a single entity getting 20%, they'd get at least a dozen MEPs each.

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37 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

The EU elections are by PR, so split votes aren’t such an issue.

 

Ah but it is. It uses the D'Hondt system so the party that gets the most votes in a region gets the first MEP, then its vote is divided by its number of MEPs plus one (halved for one MEP, divided by 3 for two MEPs etc) and whichever party is top after that gets an MEP so their vote then gets cut. Then that goes on until all MEPs are allocated. So split votes makes a huge difference compared to normal PR. 

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2 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Ah but it is. It uses the D'Hondt system so the party that gets the most votes in a region gets the first MEP, then its vote is divided by its number of MEPs plus one (halved for one MEP, divided by 3 for two MEPs etc) and whichever party is top after that gets an MEP so their vote then gets cut. Then that goes on until all MEPs are allocated. So split votes makes a huge difference compared to normal PR. 

Thanks, didn’t know that.

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3 hours ago, Strokes said:

4/1 was pretty good odds at one point. I’m not sure if they went longer than that.

There was a point during the counting when farage said something about remain winning and yougov opinion poll rocking a 52% remain win, at that point leave went out to 12/1 :thumbup:

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27 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

There was a point during the counting when farage said something about remain winning and yougov opinion poll rocking a 52% remain win, at that point leave went out to 12/1 :thumbup:

How do these odds work though? Eg if you put your money down and there is no referendum, do you lose? In that case, you risk both remain winning a referendum, and there being no referendum anyway. 

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7 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

How do these odds work though? Eg if you put your money down and there is no referendum, do you lose? In that case, you risk both remain winning a referendum, and there being no referendum anyway. 

No, if there was no referendum the selection would be voided and your money returned. 

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Guest MattP
13 hours ago, ousefox said:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-11/why-labour-looks-set-to-become-the-referendum-party/

 

Had a look at the bookies and leave is 5/1 to win a second referendum. Anybody know what they were last time?

 

11 hours ago, Strokes said:

4/1 was pretty good odds at one point. I’m not sure if they went longer than that.

Was a general 2/1 shot but on the night you could get 16's on Britain leaving when everyone was calling it for Remain.

 

And yes I was on ?

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