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[urban.spaceman]

2 hours ago, Izzy said:

Don't go there Alf 

 

 

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Corbyn looks marginally smarter and physically fitter than either Gove or Boris in those photos, despite being about 15 years older and despite all their jogging!

I still don't rate him, but due to his political instincts and personal capacities, not his dress sense.

 

To be sensible for a minute: I agree that a minimum level of smartness is required when on official duty - but that informal gear is fine when off-duty.

In the original Corbyn image, the surroundings suggest that he was ambushed by the interviewer on his way to/from somewhere, not necessarily on official duty.

 

Anyway, enough time wasted..... I have sympathy for scruffs, anyway, as I am one! 

Doesn’t matter much to me how he’s dressed, it’s his questionable beliefs and behaviour that concern me.

 

Like the fact that he’s never heard of Ant and Dec.

 

Unelectable. 

[Buce]

1 hour ago, bovril said:

Brings back some bad memories of sitting in a darkened room on that border for 4 hours in 2009...

 

Ffs, you can’t stop there, bovvers. 

 

Details, man. 

[Buce]

16 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Doesn’t matter much to me how he’s dressed, it’s his questionable beliefs and behaviour that concern me.

 

Like the fact that he’s never heard of Ant and Dec.

 

Unelectable. 

 

Who?

[bovril]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Ffs, you can’t stop there, bovvers. 

 

Details, man. 

Well, since you ask....  

Wasn't that exciting. I'd taken an overnight bus from Sofia to Istanbul, crossing the border at about 2.30am. It is an absolutely huge border crossing, and I had to go seemingly miles to find a snoring Turkish guy selling visas, which I hadn't realised I'd need. In my (and probably the border guard's) middle-of-the-night, sleep-deprived daze, I didn't realise that he just stuck it in my passport and didn't stamp it, and he obviously assumed I knew this, so I didn't bother checking, slumped back on the bus and went to Istanbul. Two days later as I was trying to cross back into Bulgaria, the border guard noticed I had a visa with no entry stamp. I had to sit in some cell for a couple of hours while they did whatever they needed to do.

Glad it was 2009 and not '15 during the migrant crisis as all sorts of crazy shit was going down there apparently.

[urban.spaceman]

15 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Who?

Hi Jez.

[Nalis]

Not all short men have short man syndrome.

 

But Emmanuel Macron......

[Bellend Sebastian]

24 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Not all short men have short man syndrome.

 

But Emmanuel Macron......

Tiny "Tommy Robinson" springs to mind, for some reason

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Tiny "Tommy Robinson" springs to mind, for some reason

Indeed

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Nalis said:

Not all short men have short man syndrome.

 

But Emmanuel Macron......

Being short and thinking you are Napoleon is a bad combination. 

 

As actual Napoleon found out. 

[EnderbyFox]

Can't belive I missed the video of Damian Green calling that shouty "Stop Brexit" bloke a w**ker, finally a politician talking sense. Slightly ironic though given what he was sacked for 

[davieG]

[Buce]

Furious Tory MPs will bid to oust May if UK fights Euro poll

Prime minister says Brexit could ‘slip through our fingers’ as Tory party fears that taking part in EU election would boost far right

Theresa May is being warned by her mutinous MPs that they will move to oust her within weeks if the UK is forced to take part in European elections next month and extend its EU membership beyond the end of June.

Tory MPs are increasingly angry at the prospect of voters being asked to go to the polls to elect MEPs three years after the Brexit referendum, in an election they fear will be boycotted by many Conservatives and be a gift to the far right and Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party. Senior Tories said one silver lining of a long extension would be that it would allow them to move quickly to force May out, and hold a leadership election starting as soon as this month.

The warnings came as the prime minister made a last desperate appeal on Saturday night to MPs to back a deal, saying there was an increasing danger Brexit would “slip though our fingers”. May said: “Because parliament has made clear it will stop the UK leaving without a deal, we now have a stark choice: leave the European Union with a deal or do not leave at all.

 

“The longer this takes, the greater the risk of the UK never leaving at all. It would mean letting the Brexit that the British people voted for slip through our fingers. I will not stand for that. It is essential we deliver what people voted for, and to do that we need to get a deal over the line.”

Conservative MP Nigel Evans, an executive member of the 1922 committee of backbenchers said last night that, if May failed to deliver Brexit and all she could do was secure a long extension at an EU summit on Wednesday, she would face overwhelming pressure to step down. “At the moment there is focus on delivering Brexit, but if a long delay becomes a reality I believe the noises off about removing the prime minister will become a cacophony,” he said. “I and many other Conservatives would prefer leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms to any humiliating long extension that forces us to take part in the European elections.”

Nigel Adams, a former minister who quit last week over May’s decision to hold talks on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn, said: “Over 170 Conservative MPs including cabinet ministers signed a letter to the PM last week urging her to ensure the UK does not take part in the European elections. Doing so will not end well.”

With discussions on Brexit between the government and Labour appearing to have stalled on Friday, there are fears among senior Conservatives that EU leaders will demand the UK remains in the EU for up to a year and takes part in European elections, unless parliament can agree a Brexit deal before 22 May.

Last month May told Tory MPs that she would stand down once Brexit had been delivered. If there was a lengthy extension to membership, the Tory party rulebook means she could not be forced out before December if she wished to go on. But an increasing number of her MPs and ministers believe her time would be up.

It is also understood that the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, a potential frontrunner to succeed May, has been informing backbenchers that he would prefer to leave on WTO terms rather than accept a long extension and made this clear in cabinet discussions last week.

Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, told the Observer: “British participation in European elections three years after a majority of the British people voted to leave the EU would be a massive political mistake. The results for the mainstream parties would be likely to be poor and more extreme parties would be looking forward to a massive opportunity.

“Everything should be done to ensure the UK leaves in the near future, obviating the need to participate in the European elections.”

On Saturday night Downing Street said discussions with Labour to find a Brexit compromise that could pass through parliament before Wednesday’s EU summit were “ongoing” at a technical level, but declined to be drawn on whether there were any plans to hold votes tomorrow or Tuesday, before May heads to Brussels.

In an attempt to convince Labour to sign up to a deal, No 10 is offering to enshrine in law a plan that would hand parliament a say in future trade talks with the EU. They believe it would stop a new Tory leader, such as Boris Johnson, shifting to a harder Brexit once May has been replaced.

Meanwhile the new Independent Group of 11 former Labour and Tory MPs said it had been approached by more than 200 people, including one former Tory minister, who wanted to stand for the embryonic party in the European elections, which it sees as a chance to mobilise Remain voters and make its first electoral breakthrough.

[the fox]

On 05/04/2019 at 17:35, MattP said:

Being short and thinking you are Napoleon is a bad combination. 

 

As actual Napoleon found out. 

Here's a misconception.

 

-Napoleon was short.

 

Many say that it is a misconception and Napoleon wasn't really that short and that view about him stems from the deferences between the French and English measuring systems.

 

"If Napoleon was 5 foot 2 inches in the French measurement system, he would have been 5 foot 6 inches (1.68 metres) in the British system. This would make him an average- sized man for his time. In which case,"

 

He wasn't really that short. And there are stories about his guards being so big that they highlighted his stature even more.

 

 

-Albert Einstein failed math

 

which is incorrect do to the different grading system.

 

 

-Bats are bind.

 

Not true. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WigstonWanderer]

This seems to be as good an analysis of the current situation as I’ve seen.

 

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/03/28/brexit-update-can-the-hard-brexiteers-pull-it-off/

 

 

Tomorrow, Friday 29th March 2019, was supposed to be the day that Britain formally left the European Union (EU). That is not now going to happen.

In early January 2016, I forecast that Britain would narrowly vote to leave the EU which shocked my early readership. It has been a wild ride since that extraordinary day when voters rebelled against their own governing class, and with our next cliff edge date looming on 12th April, where are we now?

In my 2018 post “Beware the Ides of March” I considered the prospects of a no-deal Brexit (also known as a hard Brexit) and concluded that “…my head says there will be a deal but my gut is telling me it will be a no-deal/hard Brexit”. Since then I’ve gone with my head, most recently forecasting with a 60% chance that there will be an 11th  hour deal brokered to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Having given this subject much soul searching, I am now increasingly convinced that we are, more likely than not, heading towards a no-deal Brexit within weeks or months, most probably at Midnight on Friday 12th April 2019.

The failure of May to get her Withdrawal Agreement and political declaration through the Commons has shown how toxic the backstop issue is with many within the Conservative ranks and the DUP who prop up the minority Conservative government. On the other side, Brexit remains deeply unpopular within the Remain strongholds of the major English cities and the Celtic fringe and any Labour or nationalist MP who facilitates Brexit will be hugely unpopular with their own voters.

The key reason why I now think that, on balance, the most likely outcome is a no-deal Brexit is the interests of the ruling Conservative Party. According to a recent ComRes poll, 44% of current Tory voters consider a no-deal Brexit the best possible outcome; nearly half.

When asked if they agree with the statement that “If the UK left the EU without a deal on 29 March it would briefly cause some uncertainty but then ultimately work out OK” a stonking 71% of current Conservative voters agree with only 11% disagreeing.

Conservative voters overwhelmingly support Brexit and a clear majority want the UK to exit the EU soon, with or without a deal. Should a Conservative party go for a long extension with the humiliation of UK participating in the May European elections, it will be politically suicidal. As the pollster James Frayne notes in Conservative Home, should the Tories appear to U-turn on Brexit “…its core vote will surely completely collapse and they will be left trying to go after voters who are mostly not culturally aligned to the party – an immensely difficult task”.

This electoral reality is reflected by the fact that in the indicative votes held by the UK Parliament this week, half of Conservative MP’s voted for no-deal. As the political consultancy BlondeMoney put it in their flash analysis of the results, “With half of Theresa’s own party choosing no deal as an option last night, it’s clear that if she continues to prioritise her Party, No Deal is the path she will take.” 

The possibility, which I discussed at the beginning of the year, of a last-minute, cross-party consensus that carries enough Tory MP’s (that half that didn’t vote for a no-deal Brexit) of a modified version of May’s deal that includes the option of a permanent custom union remains a realistic scenario. However, it would be the case of May taking on half her parliamentary party, the bulk of the Tory party grassroots and a plurality of the Conservative electoral base at a minimum.

Moreover, Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Opposition Leader, would need to whip his 125 odd loyal MP’s (who follow the party line) to save May’s deal, facilitate a Tory Brexit and own the political damage with his predominately Remain electorate. Is Labour really going to save a beleaguered Tory government in the interests of avoiding a no-deal Brexit?

The word within Brussels is that Corbyn is determined to remain a political virgin when it comes to Brexit and his inner circle secretly want a no-deal Brexit as the perfect conditions to pave the way for a future Labour government. It is hard to know what precisely the political calculations of Corbyn is although we do know that he is a life-long Eurosceptic and his closest aides backed Brexit and favour a return to a 1970’s type of socialist economics.

The betting and currency markets, as noted in the quotation at the top of the blog, continue to be in a state of collective denial about the possibility of an imminent no-deal Brexit in a spooky re-run of the days before the Leave vote.

The EU appear to be increasingly accepting of a no-deal outcome as a lesser evil to the alternative of a long extension, UK involvement in the European Parliament elections and the risk that the Brexit saga will never end. It was significant that the Irish leader confirmed to President Macron that Ireland could survive a no-deal Brexit which will be a key consideration for the EU leaders.

As Mujtaba Rahman notes in his most recent briefing after speaking to senior EU officials (see quotation at the top) Brussels consider a no-deal as their central scenario. Whether rightly or wrong, the EU Commission think that the bloc can handle a no-deal Brexit and this will encourage the member-states to play hardball should the UK fail to approve the Withdrawal Agreement in the next two weeks.

Outlier risks remain a general election which is unlikely given that May has promised not to commit to one and the majority of Tory MP’s would be horrified by the prospect. Alternatively, a majority could be found for a 2nd referendum within the House of Commons, but again, it is unlikely that the Tories could ever agree given that it would be the equivalent of committing electoral suicide.

A last-minute compromise deal which have proceeded the indicative vote process within Parliament, remains a viable scenario but is diminishing as we get closer to the 12th April cliff edge (45% probabilistic chance).

To summarise, I consider, that on a balance of probabilities, the most likely outcome, given the factors discussed above, is that the UK will stumble towards an accidental no-deal Brexit (55% probabilistic chance).

Edited 6 April 2019 by WigstonWanderer

[MC Prussian]

Boeing and others are being sued for the failure of the new 737 MAX model following the MCAP debacle and the loss of more than 340 lives in two deadly plane crashes - one in Indonesia, one in Ethiopia:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/ralph-nader-lost-his-grandniece-in-the-ethiopian-airlines-crash-now-he-s-taking-on-boeing-1.5084655?fbclid=IwAR3XRYJW3o1kvJhAo5zV8JiSDLtkjbWFEVp0Qc2Zl5khuAs20vbWWhQw8yo

 

 

[leicsmac]

22 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

Boeing and others are being sued for the failure of the new 737 MAX model following the MCAP debacle and the loss of more than 340 lives in two deadly plane crashes - one in Indonesia, one in Ethiopia:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/ralph-nader-lost-his-grandniece-in-the-ethiopian-airlines-crash-now-he-s-taking-on-boeing-1.5084655?fbclid=IwAR3XRYJW3o1kvJhAo5zV8JiSDLtkjbWFEVp0Qc2Zl5khuAs20vbWWhQw8yo

 

 

From what I've read Boeing certainly seem culpable for all of this in a few ways:

 

https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2019/3/29/18281270/737-max-faa-scandal-explained

 

A litany of errors and no little corruption, it would seem.

[urban.spaceman]

Schadenfreude.

[Countryfox]

 

Uh oh ...   another of Randy Andys tribe will want a full monty wedding ...   better start saving again everybody ...

 

Sponging gets ...

 

 

 

[Grebfromgrebland]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/08/british-woman-faces-jail-in-dubai-for-insulting-ex-husbands-new-wife-on-facebook

 

This is insane! 

[Alf Bentley]

This survey, showing a loss of faith in UK democracy, is unsurprising but a cause for concern: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/08/uk-more-willing-embrace-authoritarianism-warn-hansard-audit-political-engagement

 

"The UK public is increasingly disenchanted with MPs and government and ever more willing to welcome the idea of authoritarian leaders who would ignore parliament, a long-running survey of attitudes to politics has shown. Amid the Brexit chaos, overall public faith in the political system has reached a nadir not previously seen in the 16-year history of the Hansard Society’s audit of political engagement, lower even than at the depths of the crisis over MPs’ expenses. Almost three-quarters of those asked said the system of governance needed significant improvement, and other attitudes emerged that “challenge core tenets of our democracy”, the audit’s authors stated.The study, compiled annually by the democracy charity, found that when people were asked whether “Britain needs a strong ruler willing to break the rules”, 54% agreed and only 23% said no".

 

"In all, 42% of respondents agreed with the idea that many national problems could be dealt with more effectively “if the government didn’t have to worry so much about votes in parliament”. Ruth Fox, the director of the Hansard Society, said scepticism about politics, a feeling that the system was rigged and a willingness to consider radical solutions was a potentially dangerous combination. She said: “Preferring a strong leader who is willing to break the rules, or thinking that the government should be able to tackle the country’s problems without worrying about the approval of parliament, would challenge core tenets of our democracy. “The public feel strongly that the system of governing favours the rich and powerful and that political parties don’t care about the average person. And people are not confident that politicians act in the public interest. Unless something changes, this is a potentially toxic recipe for the future of British politics.”

 

"Hope Not Hate, which monitors extreme groups, said the suspicion of politicians, if coupled with a post-Brexit economic downturn, would be “fertile ground for a far-right populist surge”. Rosie Carter, a senior policy officer with the group, said: “We are facing a crisis of political mistrust. And when people do not trust traditional political systems, they look elsewhere. That’s when support for political extremes grows.” The report was based on face-to-face interviews with a representative sample of more than 1,000 people, who were asked a mix of new questions and those asked each year. The proportion who said the system of governing needed “quite a lot” or “a great deal” of improvement rose by five points from 2018, to 77%, the highest level recorded. The survey found that 25% of the public had confidence in MPs’ handling of Brexit, and overall they were more likely to have faith in the military, judges, civil servants, TV broadcasters, councils, unions and banks to “act in the public interest”. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they believed Britain was in decline, while 63% agreed that “Britain’s system of government is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful”.The overall picture was one of people engaged in politics but with little faith in their ability to shape matters, with 47% saying they felt they had no influence at all over the national direction. One of the few areas where the populist mood has subsided is backing for referendums. Before the Brexit vote, 76% of people supported more issues being put to the public in referendums, but this has now slumped to 55%, three points lower than 2018".

[Foxxed]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

This survey, showing a loss of faith in UK democracy, is unsurprising but a cause for concern: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/08/uk-more-willing-embrace-authoritarianism-warn-hansard-audit-political-engagement

 

"The UK public is increasingly disenchanted with MPs and government and ever more willing to welcome the idea of authoritarian leaders who would ignore parliament, a long-running survey of attitudes to politics has shown. Amid the Brexit chaos, overall public faith in the political system has reached a nadir not previously seen in the 16-year history of the Hansard Society’s audit of political engagement, lower even than at the depths of the crisis over MPs’ expenses. Almost three-quarters of those asked said the system of governance needed significant improvement, and other attitudes emerged that “challenge core tenets of our democracy”, the audit’s authors stated.The study, compiled annually by the democracy charity, found that when people were asked whether “Britain needs a strong ruler willing to break the rules”, 54% agreed and only 23% said no".

 

"In all, 42% of respondents agreed with the idea that many national problems could be dealt with more effectively “if the government didn’t have to worry so much about votes in parliament”. Ruth Fox, the director of the Hansard Society, said scepticism about politics, a feeling that the system was rigged and a willingness to consider radical solutions was a potentially dangerous combination. She said: “Preferring a strong leader who is willing to break the rules, or thinking that the government should be able to tackle the country’s problems without worrying about the approval of parliament, would challenge core tenets of our democracy. “The public feel strongly that the system of governing favours the rich and powerful and that political parties don’t care about the average person. And people are not confident that politicians act in the public interest. Unless something changes, this is a potentially toxic recipe for the future of British politics.”

 

"Hope Not Hate, which monitors extreme groups, said the suspicion of politicians, if coupled with a post-Brexit economic downturn, would be “fertile ground for a far-right populist surge”. Rosie Carter, a senior policy officer with the group, said: “We are facing a crisis of political mistrust. And when people do not trust traditional political systems, they look elsewhere. That’s when support for political extremes grows.” The report was based on face-to-face interviews with a representative sample of more than 1,000 people, who were asked a mix of new questions and those asked each year. The proportion who said the system of governing needed “quite a lot” or “a great deal” of improvement rose by five points from 2018, to 77%, the highest level recorded. The survey found that 25% of the public had confidence in MPs’ handling of Brexit, and overall they were more likely to have faith in the military, judges, civil servants, TV broadcasters, councils, unions and banks to “act in the public interest”. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they believed Britain was in decline, while 63% agreed that “Britain’s system of government is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful”.The overall picture was one of people engaged in politics but with little faith in their ability to shape matters, with 47% saying they felt they had no influence at all over the national direction. One of the few areas where the populist mood has subsided is backing for referendums. Before the Brexit vote, 76% of people supported more issues being put to the public in referendums, but this has now slumped to 55%, three points lower than 2018".

Well...

Quote

When people were asked whether “Britain needs a strong ruler willing to break the rules”, 54% agreed and only 23% said no".

We'll get our Trump - it not worse - soon enough.

[Finnegan]

6 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

Well...

We'll get our Trump - it not worse - soon enough.

 

Uh, it's called Brexit. 

[davieG]

Yes a 'celebrity' PM, the country is becoming obsessed with 3rd rate celebrities.

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Finnegan said:

Uh, it's called Brexit. 

Completely disagree - Brexit shouldnt  be about Trumpian economic protectionism - it should be about wider trade and reduction of tariffs from both sides if possible in the long term.

 

The comparisons made between Brexit and Trump are often very lazy and purely based on Remain voters perceptions that the same sort of people voted for both. 

[Guest MattP]

There is clearly a massive space in the political spectrum out there for a combination of left wing economics and right wing social policies though - Matthew Goodwin had been writing about it for some time.

 

Whoever lead that would have to come from outside Westminster though.